Everton and West Ham Reviewed

In the latest in my series of team-by-team analyses I turn to two clubs that both ended 2014/15 on 47 Premier League (PL) points but had very different finishes to the season. While Everton accrued six wins in their last 10 games, after finally exiting the Europa League (EL), West Ham mustered just two wins in their final 10 games. The Hammers slump coincided with a time when manager Sam Allardyce’s prospects of a new contract for 2015/16 grew slimmer with each passing week.

Overview

The EL is an interesting element in reviewing both teams. Participation in the EL has been demonstrated to damage the PL performance of many teams over the course of the season as fatigue kicks in. This certainly seemed to affect Everton last season, as they struggled to cope with long-haul midweek flights and securing success each weekend in the PL. In the 2013/14 season they finished in fifth place in the PL with 72 points, a far cry from 2014/15’s lowly finish of 11th place. Goals and clean sheets were also hard to come by for the Merseyside team during much of the last campaign. Next season, though, sees them free from the EL shackles, but can they rebound to something nearer their 2013/14 form?

West Ham, on the other hand, have all this to come, having qualified for the EL through UEFA fair play points. This also means they have to pre-qualify so will be up and running as a competitive team far in advance of their Premier League rivals. For the start of the season this could be to their advantage, but if they progress through the EL it is questionable whether they will remain a long-term proposition for Fantasy managers.

The Hammers also have a new manager, Slaven Bilic, a one time player and a popular figure amongst many fans. Bilic was a very successful as Croatia manager from 2006-2012, achieving a 65% win ratio and steering them to Euro 2008 and 2012 qualification. After a less successful year at Lokomotiv Moscow, he also did fairly well at Besiktas (2013-15, 53% win ratio). Man management is often cited as one of his key strengths but tactically it is hard to be sure what to expect – he often utilised 4-4-2 with Croatia but favoured 4-2-3-1 with Besiktas. An emphasis on good wing play seems to be a consistent feature in how he approaches building his teams.

THE DEFENCE

Everton’s poor season (50 goals conceded compared to 39 in 2013/14) was reflected in lower FPL returns for most of their main defensive assets. We can therefore probably expect lower starting valuations in the main next season – possibly Leighton Baines 6.5, Seamus Coleman 6.0, Phil Jagielka 6.0 and John Stones 5.0. Baines may not offer the returns of old now he has surrendered penalty duties but still has excellent creative stats (assist potential). Coleman is also capable of offering value at that kind of price if Everton get nearer to their 2013/14 form and he can continue to produce the open-play attacking threat that he has in the past.

The value pick of the Everton defenders is likely to be Stones, however. His price should be realistic after an injury-disrupted season, whilst Everton’s late-season defensive improvement seemed to coincide with his return to the team.  He is also a good option for ‘baseline BPS’, as Inssie’s recent article indicates. However, an alternative could be Tim Howard in goal – Roberto Martinez has expressed his intention to stick with Howard and his deputy Joel Robles and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them make a 9.5 combo (5.0 and 4.5) after a lower scoring season last time out.

For West Ham it is tricky to predict what effect Bilic will have on their defensive shape, though as a good centre-back himself in his playing days one could imagine his coaching having a beneficial effect on players like James Tomkins, James Collins and Winston Reid. However, at this stage the three most likely looking West Ham defenders would seem to be goalkeeper Adrian Castillo, centre-back Tomkins and left-back Aaron Cresswell.

Thanks in part to three penalty saves, Adrian had a very good season with 142 FPL points despite West Ham flattering to deceive. He’d seem to be due a price rise, however, and it would be surprising to see him valued below 5.5. Cresswell had good attacking stats (though not at the level of Baines or Coleman) and a share of free-kicks but it’s also questionable how good value he’ll be at a predicted 5.5. Possibly the cute West Ham defensive pick could be Tomkins – he missed a large chunk of last season through a shoulder dislocation that required surgery but looked a big threat at set pieces and at a probable 5.0 (possibly even 4.5) he could be one for the short list if he nails down a spot in Bilic’s line-up.

THE MIDFIELD

The West Ham midfield looks short of Fantasy options right now and will likely be added to in the summer. Pedro Obiang (a defensive-minded central midfielder from Sampdoria) has already signed and reports suggest that Alex Song’s loan may be made permanent. Given Bilic’s preference for speedy and tricky wingers it would not be surprising to see at least one of these arrive as well.

At this stage, the obvious midfielder of interest for Fantasy managers is Stewart Downing, West Ham’s top FPL scorer in 2014/15 with 160 points. He had excellent creative stats and did his best work by far in the first half of the season when mainly played in the #10 role; 116 of his FPL points came before mid-January and he only added 44 more from Jan 31 onwards when mostly playing wider. A player of proven FPL pedigree, much will depend on how Bilic decides to use him next season. If given the #10 role in a 4-2-3-1, he could be a worthwhile option at a likely 7.0 or so; if used as a winger, perhaps less so.

For Everton there would appear to be more options, though none of them convincing. Kevin Mirallas had by far the best stats (especially for shooting) but was used sparingly and may not remain at the club. Ross Barkley disappointed after his break-out season in 2013/14, though a price fall to around 6.0 could gain him some support. Tom Cleverley is a talented player that did well towards the end of his loan spell at Villa but it remains to be seen how Martinez will use him. Added to these uncertainties is Martinez’ disposition to rotate his midfield selection although there may be less need for that next season with no EL to contend with.

STRIKERS

Romelu Lukaku was an enigma for FPL managers. He actually scored more goals (20) than he did in 2013/14 (16) but fewer of them came in the PL (10 compared to 15 the previous season). His PL creation and shooting stats were significantly behind similarly priced strikers such as Olivier Giroud but in the EL his stats were significantly better than Giroud’s level. Weaker opposition, maybe, but teams like Wolfsburg, Lille and Dinamo Kiev are no slouches. He talks about wanting a move to a “bigger club” (or his agent does) and then says that time is on his side in his career and he’s happy at Everton.

There is little doubt that Lukaku has the tools – his seasons on loan at WBA and Everton (2013/14) demonstrated that. He’s also a striker that appears to score goals in bunches. It’s quite conceivable that his valuation could fall next season (8.0 perhaps) and with him it’s probably a matter of catching him at the right time.

For West Ham, there are three contenders to look at as it stands – Diafra Sakho, Enner Valencia and Andy Carroll. Sakho leads the three for all the significant stats and produced a creditable return of 98 FPL points considering he spent around half the season absent through injury. Unlikely to be priced much above 6.0, he could be a very interesting “third striker” option if fit and firing next season.

Andy Carroll has such a bad injury record that he’s hard to consider seriously as a Fantasy option. But Enner Valencia could be worth making a note of. Big Sam played him wide much of the time rather than in the central striker role Valencia considers as his primary position and in which he has scored 11 goals in 19 games for Ecuador. Given a run up front by Bilic, he could well be a surprise performer next season and offer great value at a probable price of around 6.0.

With thanks to Innsie and Guy Demel for their input.