Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) – The Forwards

This is the second in a two-article series looking in detail at the theory of Value Over Replacement Player (VORP), which involves comparing players of similar prices to see who offers the best value. A more detailed explanation can be found here. While the first part looked at midfielders, this focuses on forwards.

As with my look at midfielders, the focus of this research will look at players’ points per game (PPG) statistics and also make an assumption that 3-4-3 offers the best value. Another assumption that is made is that 34.0 is the optimal spend on defenders on goalkeepers, a 4.5 fifth midfielder is included and we have 61.5 to spend on seven midfield and attacking regulars.

Here is a look at the best forwards in terms of how much their PPG increases depending on how much more you spend on them. In this case I have used a block of 0.5 in price increase. This gives the player’s VORP.  I have also included the average forward’s VORP.

Change in 0.1PPG/Change in 0.5m

Papiss Cisse 9.0
Diafra Sakho 8.0
Andy Carroll 5.0
Saido Berahino 4.0
Mame Diouf 3.0
Christian Benteke 1.8
Danny Ings 1.67
Average Forward VORP 1.53
Olivier Giroud 1.5
Graziano Pelle 1.0
Romelu Lukaku 0.75
Wayne Rooney 0.55
Stevan Jovetic 0.5
Daniel Sturridge 0.33
Wilfred Bony 0.2

Mid-Priced Forwards

Amongst the 8.0 options, Pelle and Lukaku broadly seem to meet expectations as an increase in price does bring about some additional production, however frustrating or middling it might be. Ings is an interesting one; Liverpool’s state of flux makes it hard to predict his situation, but his value is certainly there.

Amongst the 8.5 plus group of players, Christian Benteke’s returns are better on average than Giroud’s. In contrast, Rooney offered poor value for money last year, but that is largely due to being used as a central midfielder. He is widely expected to increase his points production next season if he can cement a central attacking role.

Premium-Priced Forwards

Sergio Aguero, Diego Costa, and Harry Kane were last season’s elite forwards, offering an immense return of points for their price. Harry Kane, in particular, offered one of the best value striking options the Fantasy Football world has ever seen. Aguero’s stratospheric 6.5 PPG, Costa’s 5.8 and Kane’s 5.6 far surpassed the competition, with the next highest PPG for a forward a distant 4.4.

You can’t go wrong with Aguero and Costa, as the most you spend, the more they produce – exactly what you want from an elite attacker and exemplifying the captaincy security expected for such a high price.

Kane, like Silva, is the most interesting one here due to his lowly price tag last season. Can he continue to perform in 2015/16 priced at 9.5?  If he performs at last year’s level he would once again be worth every penny. Even with some regression he would remain an elite prospect. I calculate that he could score a full 1.0 PPG lower this year and still come in as fourth most productive forward.

Further Discussion

Could a different formation be applied to this research to see how much value premium defenders offer for their price? What price tag and points return should we be looking at for our third forwards and fourth midfielders? Is a cheap fifth midfielder the way to go still?