Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) – The Midfielders

Value over replacement player (VORP) has been discussed a number of times amongst Fantasy managers in the search for value amongst their squad. The basic premise of VORP for the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) game is to attempt to use the initial 100.0 budget to get the greatest points return. This involves comparing players of similar prices to see which offers the best value. A more detailed explanation can be found here. This is the first part of two articles looking in detail at VORP. While this article focuses on midfielders, the next takes a detailed look at forwards.

With this year’s FPL prices now available I thought now would be a good time to look again at the issue of VORP as we attempt to construct our 2015/16 Fantasy squads.

Points To Consider

There is lots to consider in using VORP to help create the best value Fantasy squad. Points per game (PPG) figures from the last season help, as does an acknowledgement that changes in manager, team personnel and European involvement also need to be considered. Another set of data is around points per 90 minutes but for this analysis I’ll be focusing on PPG, although as you will see at the end I have made an exception when looking at Theo Walcott.

Formation is another issue to consider. My assumption is that 3-4-3 offers the best value, with 34.0 spent on the seven defensive positions, and that is the focus of this analysis.

I’ve also made another assumption that the bulk of the seven attacking players in the first XI rarely changes so 4.5 looks the best value price for a fifth midfielder. This leaves 61.5 to spend on seven players regular starting midfielders and attackers and the tricky task of getting the right blend of heavy hitters and cheap players.

Mid-Price Midfielders

My analysis shows that amongst the best midfield picks the average cost is 7.5 and the average PPG is 4.2. That brings in a very respectable 25 points every six weeks. Looking in closer detail at what the price tag brings in terms of points, I calculate that an extra 2.0 will bring in an extra 0.7 PPG on average. In other words for each 0.5 you spend gets you an extra 0.2 PPG.

Looking at the cheaper mid-price players in the 5.5 to 7.5 category to consider in terms of value in midfield, Gylfi Sigurdsson, Sadio Mane, Nacer Chadli, Jordan Henderson, Yannick Bolasie and Jonathan Walters all deliver more PPG for each extra block of 0.5 than one could expect based on their prices.

Chadli, Henderson, and Sigurdsson all still deliver more than expected even as their prices have increased, underlining their value supremacy. Mane and Bolasie are interesting as they seem to be primed for breakouts over the full season, with a special nod to Mane who maintains his value even at his near premium price tag.

In terms of midfield options in the 8.5-9 bracket or more a rough expected median PPG should be at least 4.0. But what is clear is that the players in this price range do not offer the same points value as their mid-priced counterparts. Here is a list of the best options amongst the premium midfielders in terms of change in PPG per 0.5 extra you spend.

Change in 0.1PPG/Change in 0.5m

Cesc Fabregas 2.33
Mesut Ozil 2.5
Yaya Toure 2.0
Average VORP Midifielder 1.75
Santi Cazorla 1.5
Oscar 1.5
Raheem Sterling 1.0
Christian Eriksen 0.5
Juan Mata 0
Aaron Ramsey -1.0
Angel Di Maria -1.0

The first thing to notice is that overall, as prices increase, points production does not keep up. These diminishing returns are the essence of our challenge with premium attackers, as we have to spend the money on someone so pure value begins to be less significant than outright production. Ramsey and Di Maria are good examples here and show they are perhaps overpriced in terms of their points potential.  Interestingly, two of the three players who continue to produce beyond VORP expectations are Mesut Ozil and Yaya Toure. Arguably with his strong assist potential Fabregas’s place at the summit here is less surprising.

Premium midfielders

Eden Hazard, David Silva, and Alexis Sanchez are the key players I’ll be looking at here. These players should be bringing in a PPG average of 6, offering a stellar return of 36 points every six Gameweeks. Of these, Silva has a remarkable record of return on the investment for his 10.0 price tag, while the more expensive Hazard and Sanchez lag behind due to their respective price tags of 11.5 and 11.0. Additionally, Hazard played the most minutes of any players on this list, so his PPG average was not skewed by a series of intermittent appearances or cameos off the bench.

Can they stay at an elite level of 6.0 PPG this season? Hazard certainly belongs with his consistency and Sanchez might not have even hit his ceiling if the Arsenal attack continues to evolve around him. Silva’s prospects of maintaining strong value for money are more complex, though. Many are predicting a regression in goals scored, but often that is based on a hunch rather than cast iron statistics. At this stage opinion is certainly divided.

Another issue is how much Raheem Sterling will steal his thunder, or whether Wilfried Bony will get more pitch time and affect his output. My view is that with a price tag of 10.0, Silva is well worth investing in.

The Walcott Factor

Another midfielder worth mentioning is Theo Walcott. In his injury-ravaged 2014/15 campaign he managed a lowly 3.6 points per game average. But when you consider that many of his appearances were from the bench, points per 90 minutes needs to be looked at as well. This reveals that he scored an incredible 10.1 points per 90 minutes. Admittedly this is partly skewed by his Gameweek 38 hat-trick but nevertheless adds further weight to the assertion made in a recent Community Article by Le Saux Solid Crew on Fantasy Football’s best attackers that when he gets pitch time Walcott will reward his owners handsomely. For 9.0 Walcott seems to represent irresistible value for money.