What The Bookies Say – Gameweek 7

Welcome to the latest look to see if the bookies’ odds can help predict player form and match results. Following on from my review of Gameweek 6 let’s delve straight into my Gameweek 7’s predictions based on what the bookies say.

Captaincy Options

The list below features the top ten most popular picks according to the Fantasy Football Scout captaincy poll on the left, with how they line up based on bookies’ odds, on the right.

1. Anthony Martial                               1. Anthony Martial (8/11)
2. Sergio Aguero                                 2. Sergio Aguero (EVS)
3. Dimitri Payet                                    3. Alexis Sanchez (6/5)
4. Riyad Mahrez                                  4. Juan Mata (6/5)
5. Alexis Sanchez                               5. Callum Wilson (6/4)
6. Eden Hazard                                   6. Kevin De Bruyne (13/8)
7. Juan Mata                                        7. Harry Kane (7/4)
8. Kevin De Bruyne                             8. Eden Hazard (29/20)
9. Callum Wilson                                9. Dimitri Payet (19/10)
10. Harry Kane                                     10. Riyad Mahrez (23/10)

Both Manchester clubs are seen as the best source of captaincy points according to the bookmakers whereas according to the FFScout Captain poll, the likes of Dimitri Payet and Riyad Mahrez seem more likely to get on the score sheet. Spurs man Harry Kane seems like poor value (7/4) considering he’s yet to open his account for the season. The consistent  Mahrez (23/10) is well placed in the captain poll but the bookmakers still have him at a tempting price.

Captaincy Analysis

1. Anthony Martial (SUN) – Over 400,000 managers have picked up the Frenchman and are likely to be rewarded with the first triple rise. Sunderland conceded four in midweek to Manchester City so the omens look woeful. An early goal in this game could see the floodgates open.
2. Dimitri Payet (NOR) – West Ham face Norwich at home this weekend and the creative midfielder has been impressive since his arrival in the Premier League. If the Hammers are to do well, he is almost guaranteed to be involved. A genuine captaincy option this week
3. Riyad Mahrez (ARS) – The big question with Mahrez seems to be ‘when will the form end?’ I don’t think it’s going to be this weekend. Leicester have nothing to lose and I foresee an open, end-to-end game with plenty of chances for both teams. He has mustered an incredible 58 points from six games. Mahrez represents a real high risk, high reward strategy this week.

Clean Sheets

Here is this week’s list to cast your eyes over (in order):

Man Utd (4/6)

Liverpool (19/20)

Chelsea (5/4)

Southampton (11/8)

Man City (15/8)

West Ham (15/8)

Watford (9/5)

Everton (9/5)

Arsenal (2/1)

Stoke (21/10)

West Brom (21/10)

Bournemouth (9/4)

Crystal Palace (11/5)

Swansea (11/4)

Norwich (3/1)

Tottenham (18/5)

Leicester (9/2)

Newcastle (9/2)

Aston Villa (5/1)

Sunderland (8/1)

The Matches

Here are my own personal predictions for Gameweek 7 using the bookmakers’ odds as one of a number of guides.

Tottenham (16/5) vs Man City (4/5)

City’s first loss and goals conceded came last week at the hands of West Ham, whereas Tottenham picked up a win thanks to a goal from their new signing Son, scraping a 1-0 win. Man City simply have too much quality in their team, especially their front four players. One of these players is a certain Kevin De Bruyne who scored on his full debut and has already created nine chances for his team. Prediction: I’m backing an away win with both teams to score – 3-1 Man City.

Leicester (11/4) vs Arsenal (17/20)

Leicester seem to be scoring goals for fun right now but conceding at a rate of two or more goals a game is certainly not sustainable. The first goal here is completely crucial to the outcome of the game. I do fancy Riyad Mahrez to keep on scoring (23/10) and will back him at that price. Prediction: A thoroughly entertaining 2-2 draw.

Man Utd (2/9) vs Sunderland (12/1)

Manchester United seem to be picking up some momentum right now and they face Sunderland at home this week. Anthony Martial could not have had a better start to his life at Old Trafford, with two goals against Southampton with another in midweek. He’s too short in price (8/11) to back but I can only see a home win in this one. Prediction: United are really short defensively right now so that’s why I’m predicting a 3-1 home win.

Liverpool (4/9) vs Aston Villa (6/1)

Liverpool have scored one goal in four Gameweeks, which is simply awful and leaves them in 13th place in the table. Playing 120 minutes against Carlisle was not ideal in midweek and they could only manage one goal in 120 minutes against them. Aston Villa have improved defensively of late and I expect Rudy Gestede to have a real battle with Martin Skrtel this weekend. Last week I called a 1-1 result with Norwich and I’m expecting another torrid week for Brendan Rodgers. Prediction 1-1.

Southampton (19/20) vs Swansea (3/1)

Swansea have not been able to score in consecutive games showing a slight dip in form. However their opponents Southampton did score two goals in a loss to Manchester United. I thought Southampton looked good in large parts of that game and I’m expecting Graziano Pelle to have another good game here. Prediction 2-1 home win.

Stoke (6/4) vs Bournemouth (9/5)

Stoke have not won a game in the Premier League so far which is incredible given the players they have brought in. Eddie Howe’s men made light work of Sunderland last time out and will go to the Britannia thinking they can get a result. Stoke, however, are boosted by the return of Bojan. His inclusion will give the Stoke attack a fresh impetus and I’m expecting goals in this one for both teams. Prediction: 2-2.

West Ham (6/5) vs Norwich (23/10)

West Ham quite frankly destroyed Newcastle and then went to Manchester City and took three points so they and their fans will be expecting three points against Norwich. Norwich showed great character in their draw with Liverpool in their last game but I think West Ham will just have too much for them with Payet pulling the strings. Prediction: 2-1.

Newcastle (9/2) vs Chelsea (4/7)

Are Chelsea building momentum? I’m not so sure. They beat a nine-man Arsenal and strolled past Walsall in midweek. However, Newcastle are simply atrocious, to put it mildy. Expect Newcastle to line up how they did against Arsenal and try to frustrate Chelsea. When the first goal goes in (which I think is inevitable), I’m expecting the goals to come. Prediction: 0-3 Chelsea.

Watford (7/5) vs Crystal Palace (2/1)

I see goals in this game as both have strong attacking momentum right now. Palace boss Alan Pardew saying he’s more concerned about scoring goals than earning clean sheets bodes well for an exciting game. I feel Watford will sit back and try to hit Palace on the counter. Odion Ighalo is an absolute FPL bargain – nailed on, scored more goals in 2015 than anyone else in the top four tiers and has an excellent understanding with Troy Deeney. Prediction: 2-2.

West Brom (2/1) v Everton (7/5)

This game has all the hallmarks of being a tight, close affair with Everton failing to score last time out and West Brom enjoying an over 50% clean sheet rate under manager Tony Pulis. Prediction: both teams to cancel each out in a 0-0 draw.

Top Tips

Each week I offer up two potential bets. N.B. Please bet responsibly, if you are even doing so in the first place.

Eden Hazard (29/20)

Odion Ighalo (9/5)                         > anytime goalscorer treble @ 21.63/1

Riyah Mahrez (23/10)

Chelsea cleen sheet (5/4)                      > clean sheet double @ 6.02/1

West Brom clean sheet (21/10)

Good Luck!