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14 October 2015 37 comments
Your Mum's Athletic Your Mum's Athletic
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The International Break is over and we can look forward to Gameweek 9 in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) game. Here’s my regular list of captaincy options, match predictions and clean sheets based on what the bookies say.

Captaincy options

The names on the left hand side are the leaders in FFScout’s captaincy poll, while on the right are the bookies’ best bets to score.

  1. Kevin De Bruyne           1. Diego Costa (3/4)
  2. Alexis Sanchez              2. Alexis Sanchez (17/20)
  3. Graziano Pelle               3. Kevin De Bruyne (17/20)
  4. Diego Costa                   4. Graziano Pelle (21/20)
  5. Sergio Aguero                5. Eden Hazard (21/20)
  6. Daniel Sturridge             6. Harry Kane (11/8)
  7. Eden Hazard                   7. Daniel Sturridge (7/5)
  8. Harry Kane                      8. Sadio Mane (29/20)
  9. Sadio Mane                     9. Dimitri Payet (14/5)
  10. Dimitri Payet                    10. Sergio Aguero (N/A)

Captaincy Analysis

Interestingly Diego Costa is the likeliest to score anytime, according to the bookies anyway. This clearly highlights their desire to price players (fixture over form) which gives hope to punters looking to back big name players. Sadio Mane (29/20) seems great value and I am willing to back him at a tempting price. Players who do not feature on this list but I fancy to do well this week are Crystal Palace’s Yohan Cabaye (21/20) and Newcastle man Aleksandar Mitrovic (6/4). Cabaye has collected 23 points in his last two FPL Gameweeks and with penalties, free kicks and a plum home fixture, he represents good value. Mitrovic is a bit of a gamble but he has looked good and shown signs of quality when not being sent off or yellow carded in the first few seconds.

Top Tip: Anytime goalscorer treble > Cabaye + Mitrovic + Mane @ 18/1

  1. Graziano Pelle (LEI) – The Southampton striker is in fantastic form at the moment, scoring 35 Fantasy Football points in the last three Gameweeks. The Saints take on a Leicester side who have conceded 15 goals already, the fourth worst in the league.
  2. Kevin De Bruyne (BOU) – The Man City striker is also in a rich vein of form, scoring 32 points in the last three Gameweeks. This fixture should have plenty of goals and with Aguero and David Silva injured, this could mean KDB plays in a more attacking role, certainly in the number 10 role. A great option (in my opinion) if you don’t fancy the Saints’ attack.

Clean sheets

In order – Chelsea (17/20) Man City (6/5) West Brom (13/10) Arsenal (13/10) Swansea (11/8) Southampton (6/4) Crystal Palace (8/5) Man Utd (9/5) Newcastle (2/1) Tottenham (11/5) Norwich (5/2) Stoke (11/4) Liverpool (13/5) Everton (13/5) Sunderland (13/5) West Ham (10/3) Leicester (19/5) Watford (5/1) Aston Villa (13/2) Bournemouth (7/1)

Clean sheet analysis

Chelsea are not in form and Mancherster City concede goals when their injured centre-back Vincent Kompany doesn’t play so I don’t fancy the top two in the market, unless of course the Manchester City skipper returns to fitness. The first team I fancy on the list to keep a clean sheet would be Swansea (11/8). This season, clean sheets have been hard to come by and the pattern could well continue this week with high-scoring games to be predicted.

The Matches

Tottenham (11/8) vs Liverpool (19/10) This match is all about new Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp and how long it will take him to implement his ‘heavy metal’ style of expansive football. Tottenham got a draw against Swansea last time out with Eriksen particularly standing out for me. Something tells me that Liverpool will raise their game, with players trying to impress the new manager and I fancy an away victory. Prediction: Liverpool to win BTTS* @ 4/1

Man City (3/10) vs Bournemouth (9/1) At time of writing, Aguero and Silva are out and Aleksandar Kolarov completed a warm down which is a good sign and Kompany may be fit to return. These are crucial players for City, who will have to turn to Bony and especially KDB for goals. I’ve backed KDB to score in this game. Bournemouth have also suffered an injury crisis of their own and are likely to sit deep and counter-attack in this game. Prediction: Man City to win BTTS @ 7/4

West Brom (EVS) vs Sunderland (11/4) Sam Allardyce takes charge of his first Sunderland game, who weren’t actually that bad against the new manager’s former team. Unfortunately they look likely to be without key man Jeremain Lens. West Brom you can argue, have a good strike-force but they have only scored twice since the start of September which is a major worry. One player who will be key for Big Sam is Yann M’Villa, with 10 points and two assists in his last game. Prediction: draw and BTTS @ 16/5

Southampton (4/5) vs Leicester (16/5) These two teams have scored 14 goals in the last three Gameweeks! Both teams are exciting to watch and some of the most creative sides in the Premier League right now. As pointed out earlier in the article, Sadio Mane has 27 points in his last three (9, 7 and 11) and is priced kindly still at 7.9. Himself, Pelle and Dusan Tadic are working in tandem and with a nice run of fixtures, a double up could prove fruitful in the coming weeks. Prediction: I think this game is the tie of the Gameweek, end-to-end and plenty of goals. Over 3.5 goals @21/10.

Chelsea (3/10) vs Aston Villa (17/2) Jose Mourinho’s men have only won two games this season; his usual excuses cannot hide how bad his team have been this season. Will they finally turn it around against Aston Villa? Tim Sherwood supposedly has two games to save his job; they have shown attacking ability in games this season but the lack of real high-quality players is a real concern. Prediction: Chelsea to win BTTS (21/10)

Everton (23/10) vs Man Utd (6/5) Everton have been suprisingly consistent this season, only losing once against Man City. The lack of Europa League games is really improving their Premier League results and I think they will get something out of this one. United have gone from clean sheet masters to now needing to score two or three to win the game. Ross Barkley is the key man for me in this game, likely to exploit the space in front of the United defence, I think he will have a real impact in this match. Prediction: draw and BTTS @3/1

Crystal Palace (17/20) vs West Ham (14/5) A London derby with both teams sitting in the table with 15 points. Crystal Palace have back-to-back cleen sheets with Speroni on the verge of a return. West Ham are still undefeated away from home. Andy Carroll is back and we could see him heavily involved this week. Yohan Cabaye and Dimitri Payet are the key men, Cabaye has been talked about earlier but the latter is pivotal to the Hammers attack; he also seems to be linking up well with Victor Moses who has started to flourish. Prediction: draw with BTTS @ 16/5

Watford (5/1) vs Arsenal (11/20) Arsenal have scored eight goals in their last two games whilst conceding just twice. You feel it’s games like these that could really push them up the table. Watford have been impressive at home this season and won’t be a pushover by any means. Key man in this one is Alexis Sanchez; providing he is fit, he is likely to produce in this game (17/20), and I think Arsenal will have enough quality to see them through. Prediction: Arsenal to win BTTS @ 11/5

Newcastle (11/8) vs Norwich (19/10) The only Sunday game this weekend sees a bottom half of the table clash. Newcastle, last time out, resisted Man City for as long as they could before ultimately crashing to a 6-1 defeat. Norwich lost for the first time in four games against Leicester City last week but they certainly look more impressive this year compared to the Magpies. As stated above, Mitrovic is they key man for Newcastle; I think he will begin to find his feet but his team will ultimately lose. Prediction: Norwich to win BTTS @ 9/2

Swansea (EVS) vs Stoke (14/5) This mid-table clash is the Monday night showing this week and the Swans seem to have lost their way recently. They come up against a Stoke team which, in my opinion, should be a doing a lot better with the players they have brought in. I think there will finally be a clean sheet and I fancy Swansea to get it. Prediction: Swansea to win to nil @ 2/1

*BTTS – Both teams to score

37 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 16 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    cheers. I agree re Leicester v Southampton. Looks great for goals.

    1. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Thanks Jonty, can the clean sheet odds be put in a vertical list? It doesn't look right at the moment

      1. J0E
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 16 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Yep, something went array with the formatting. Not sure whether it was some rogue html creeping in from your original or from us...the entire text was like that with no spacing so had to go through and add that in. As its quite long I'm tempted to leave as is on the clean sheets.

        1. Your Mum's Athletic
          • 14 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          whatever you think is best Jonty 🙂

    2. Pompel
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Really difficult to choose between Pelle(c) or San(c)hez this GW!

      1. Your Mum's Athletic
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Watford have been solid at home, it's a tough call but Pelle seems the call

  2. Crystal
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Have to fancy City for s clean sheet now Kompany is back

    1. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Yeah at time of writing it was abit up in the air but he certainly does help their CS prospects

      1. Crystal
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Yep, didn't Mangala play last week as well. Could be back to the first choice back 4

        1. Your Mum's Athletic
          • 14 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          Too have Mangala/Otamendi as your back up CB is ridiculous. I might punt on Kolarov if Yaya is out (pens 😉 )

  3. LE GOD(C)-AMERICAN DYCHO-(1…
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    So since Agueros injury I have been norrowing down replacements and I am down to just two

    A Lukaku

    Or

    B Kane

    1. 1NVINCIBLES
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Contemplating the same move. Probably A for this gameweek as TOT vs. LIV could go both ways.

  4. Prøphet
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Another great article! Both of my Captaincy picks are the ones you listed 🙂 Hopefully i pick the right one before the start of this GW.

    I backed SOU - LEI BTTS

    1. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Should be plenty of goals, let's hope so!

  5. Fozzyb34r
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Another brilliant article YMA, look forward to this every week.

    Lets hope your tips do well, i'll be backing a few of them!

    1. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      cheers Fozzy good luck!

  6. Slumdog-Mignolet
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Great article and solid looking tips. Wanting to draft in an Arsenal defender but worried Bellerin or Monreal could be rested with Bayern in mind. Also not convinced Gabriel is nailed.

    1. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Gabriel isn't nailed agreed, next season i believe he could be but Mert is too good to just sit on the bench. I think the only nailed on ARS defence is Cech and Kos, think it's worth the extra dollar for him if you can afford it. thanks also

  7. Woy of the Wovers
    • 15 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Thanks, YMA. Let's make this a good HtH match.

    1. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      good luck to you Woy

  8. FPLSuarridge
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Cheers to your article, best article here imo.

    Your mum's atheletic: Have Pelle and Vardy, feel like punting with (C)osta or Mitrovic. No idea who to captain too. What do you think?

    1. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      I think Pelle is you're best bet out of the guys you have listed. thanks btw

  9. Sheppertonni
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Is Sanchez fit this weekend ? I know he played last night?

    1. Jax
      • 16 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      yeah he is fit

  10. Djerbil
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Looks very bleak for CS this week , U are right

  11. Saint Steve-O (@EliteFPL)
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    My favourite article of the week, but the one rare occasion I write a comment, your predictions are all same (X team wins BTTS lol) rather than the usual more accurate predictions...

    Still, thanks to your tips, my FPL ranking has shot up..

    Looks like Mane or KDB for my captaincy then

    1. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Thanks Saint Steve, I think it was just a concious decision to go x team to win BTTS rather than 3-1 or 2-1 etc. allows a bit more flexibility on my part. Good luck with captain choice

      1. Saint Steve-O (@EliteFPL)
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        I just found it amusing 🙂

        Specially when a lot of your maverick picks ie Everton beating Chelsea have come off...

        Genuinely love the piece & hope it continues across season

  12. Shmadz - Le Saux Solid Crew
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Morning YMA. Great write-up, as usual.

    One tiny suggestion I'd make regarding betting policy would be to say that there is no value in backing any 'Draw/BTTS' results. I would always advise someone that fancies that particular outcome to back the 1-1 in the correct scores market.
    One-one draws represent a large majority of all score draw results. In fact, more than half of all score draws are 1-1s. Given that a 1-1 draw on the correct scores market will usually be available at about twice the price (around the 11/2 - 13/2 best prices), the smart move is to back 1-1s.

    My play for the weekend will be a win double on Southampton and Everton, available at just a smidgen under 5/1.

    Best of luck.

  13. Sharkytect
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Surprised at Costa best bet to score. I think that alone has convinced me

    1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Errr ...

      This is the bookies we are talking about. They want your money.

      1. Sharkytect
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        They have got enough of my money

  14. Bolivian Seaman
    • 15 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Don't you want to do predicted scores anymore? Other sites do it like whoscored and every other one. It's a good indication of how likely a team is to score

    1. Costa in Wengerland
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      its actually my favorite topic , only if YMA puts decimal system and makes it more easy for us ðŸ™

    2. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      my apologies, i will endeavour to put them on future articles

  15. Jax
    • 16 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    3/10