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21 December 2015 10 comments
Kavali Kavali
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With the dust about to settle on Gameweek 17 I thought I’d offer an update on my tracking of Fantasy Football Scout’s most experienced and best performing managers.

My sample includes 34 teams, consisting of those who are leading or have been leading the Hall of Fame as well as the Fantasy Football Scout’s Moderators & Contributors League, and from Overall Hall of Fame. This has been an odd season, with Leicester riding high in the Premier League and Watford beating big-name teams. But, at the end I am expecting the more experienced Fantasy Premier League managers to do well. 

This is Part One. Part Two will be published after all Gameweek 17’s matches have been completed.

The Statistics

Average overall position of all 34 teams after Gameweek 16 was 185,697, which is by 29,147 places worse than they were after Gameweek 15.

After Gameweek 16 just six teams were inside the overall Top 10k (17.65%), five of them inside top 1,000, and four of them inside top 200 in the world.

Here are stats from Gameweek 17:

– Transfer point hits: 2.94%
– One transfer: 55.88%
– Two transfers: 5.88%
– Zero transfers: 32.35%
– No one used Chips/Wildcard this Gameweek

Transfers by positions (% of all transfers in bracket)

– Goalkeepers: (0.00%)
– Defenders: (43.48%)
– Midfielders: (52.17%)
– Forwards: (4.35%)

Transfers in:

– Craig Dawson (WBA): 17.39%
– Aaron Ramsey (ARS): 13.04%
– Kurt Zouma, Junior Stanislas, Joel Ward, Georginio Wijnaldum 8.70%

Transfers out:

– Eden Hazard: 21.74%
– Micah Richards: 13.04%
– Virgil Van Dijk, Roberto Firmino 8.70%

Captains:

– Romelu Lukaku: 91.18%
– Riyad Mahrez, Harry Kane, Juan Mata 2.94%

Conclusions

When we publish Part Two of this article, we will see new average position of these teams, and also, which players are most popular in those teams. For now, we can tell that almost all Gameweek transfers was focused on defenders and midfielders. The main reason was Eden Hazard’s injury, with new blood needed in midfield. Aaron Ramsey’s move to central midfield is obviously something that has impressed the more experienced managers.

Another factor in the focus on defence and midfield was the good form of the game’s key strikers. No one was willing to part with the likes of Lukaku or Vardy this week. The high proportion who are saving their transfers is interesting too. This could indicate some forward thinking over the busy festive period.

Finally, the captaincy of Lukaku and low captaincy rate of Mahrez shows that for many of this elite bunch they still struggle to fully trust those from teams that have been traditionally weak over the years. The pedigree of Lukaku in the Premier League is something else that is clearly important to this group.

Kavali `In Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock.`

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  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 16 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    cheers. Very interesting project this - which exposes the experienced managers at times costly prejudices (e.g. Lukaku © over Mahrez © ) Also experience of Ramsey's great season a couple of years ago looks to be driving decisions.

  2. ANON.
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    If Aguero and Sanchez look good tonight how does this look? Is defence too weak?

    Kane, Ayew, Kolarov to Aguero, Sanchez, Smith for -4 leaving me with:

    Butland
    Alder, Dawson, Souare
    Sanchez, KDB, Ozil, Mahrez
    Aguero, Lukaku, Vardy

    Schmeichel, Smith, Richards, Surman

    1. J0E
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      best post on the main article - community article comments tend to stick to the subject at hand. Cheers.

  3. HVT
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    Very good statistical analysis, looks like I'm beating the 'average' points of scouts most experienced!

    1. J0E
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      I think this season has been particularly tough for more experienced managers that are used to players and teams they can rely on. With Leicester riding high and Watford beating tough sides on paper it is clearly taking them a while to adjust. Same happened last season with price trumping pedigree with Kane being benched v Chelsea. New Fantasy managers may not have done that so readily.

      1. Kavali
        • 15 Years
        9 years, 11 months ago

        Great season for casuals. You don't need numbers, stats, just put an armband on Mahrez or Lukaku, Butland on goal, Ighalo up front, and don't touch or change anything. You will be in TOP 1000.

  4. ThisTimeNxtYrRodney
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    Agree with you Jonty. Some experienced managers play a more conservative game compared to relative newcomers but I think the use of chips for DGW's later on will address some of the imbalance. 43% plus of all chips have been used (last weeks figures) so far. I'm sure lots will use early second wildcards as well.
    I welcome this refreshing approach by some newcomers and if some of us can learn to enjoy the game a bit more then all the better.

    Template teams spoil this game (unless you are in the top 1000 or so and even then they can prevent you from catching up). Simon's success last year was due to some astute playing but also due to the fact that lots had almost identical teams. This allowed him to hold on for half the season to his top spot.

    It has been a strange season so far but I'm looking forward to the second half.

    Remember

    1. You can't have all the top scorers in your team as you only have 15 places.
    2. Patience is the name of the game.
    3. There will be many other successful bandwagons still to jump upon.
    4. Re-examine your FPL goals ( mini leagues, H2H's , LMS and the cup competition) and enjoy the rest of the season as we can't all finish first.

    Good luck to all.

    1. RedLightning
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Despite the possible existence of various templates (the casual template, the FFS and experienced players template and the top 10k template are all slightly different), which may lead to many teams appearing to be very similar, very few squads are completely identical - and if they are then they are unlikely to stay that way for long unless they are either dead teams or controlled by the same player.

      There is always some scope for choosing a different captain, a different player to bench, a different transfer to make, a different allocation of spending between defence and attack or between value players and big-hitters, a different emphasis on form or fixtures, or a different emphasis on or interpretation of various stats.

  5. Spectrum-FFS Doubles Champ
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    I can completely relate to everything in this article the reluctance to hand Mahrez the armband for example hit the nail on the head

  6. tm245
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    Thanks for this article, should be interesting to see how that group fares.

    Another way to think about what might be happening is that perhaps too much information might be causing some experienced players to be overthinking instead of playing the more straightforward game that likely gave them success in the past. By that I don't mean playing the same way every year, but rather going into each year without an ideology -- or dare I say filosofee -- and just take what the game gives you in terms of points.

    With so much access to ownership trends, price movements, underlying stats, and the psychology of the rogues gallery that is FFS, some might be playing multiple iterations of the game instead of just the simple game itself: who is playing well, can I afford him? Done. I have struggled to play the game that simply and the risks have not surprisingly often gone unrewarded.