The Firmino Theory

After bigging up my mate Theo Walcott prior to watching him bag a brace in the Champions League, I felt I just had to bring him in. Regardless of whether it is the right decision before a fixture against the stubborn Burnley, I would’ve kicked myself after flagging him up with my article. (Top captaincy tip for members here, by the way.)

But who to sell?

Well, listening to Jonty talk on this week’s Scoutcast about the latest Fantasy Football theory – from here onwards, to be known as The Firmino Theory – I knew the answer. Here was the tweet he discussed:

Abdullah Al Mamun ‏@TachyonMatrix Sep 26

@Newsandfeatures Are you worried about [Philippe] Coutinho affecting [Roberto] Firmino since 11 of his 12 PL goals came when Coutinho wasn’t on the field?

SHOULD WE BE WORRIED?

First off, I’ll look at Liverpool since Klopp arrived in the Premier League and Europa League, comparing the goals and assists from both players. (Transfermarkt.co.uk used for all goals, assists and minutes below.)

Firmino without Coutinho: 9 goals 4 assists

Firmino with Coutinho: 4 goals 8 assists

Coutinho without Firmino: 5 goals 2 assists

Coutinho with Firmino: 7 goals 5 assists

So first, a word of caution. This is based on time spent on the pitch together – I’ve checked each goal and assist to see if one or both of them were playing. However, I do not have the means to work out total minutes spent on-pitch together and separately. Therefore, the numbers are not comparable in some senses.

However, it works quite nicely that Firmino has a similar number of returns in both categories – 13 returns without Coutinho and 12 returns with. And this is where the stats are interesting – Firmino relies on his creativity when Coutinho is present, but his goal-scoring comes to the fore without his fellow Brazilian.

That might be the end of the story for some, and it was enough to convince me to make my transfer, but with a sample size this small, this remains a theory. Let’s see if the member stats can shed more light on it:

The thing that could convince me that this is in the same league as Dembele theory would be the underlying stats. For this, I cannot possibly work out who was on the pitch every time Firmino took a shot. For this section, I will work on the basis of a 60 minute appearance. If both players play 60 minutes, this will count as them playing together. It will also only be based on the Premier League.

As this theory focuses on Firmino, I will only look at him in this section, in an attempt to develop the hypothesis which has been given a little credence by the goal/assist numbers above.

Firmino: 26 apps (60mins+), with 13 of those with Coutinho. (Again, excellent numbers to work with!)

The following will be WITH Coutinho vs WITHOUT Coutinho per appearance:

Penalty Box Touches:

4.69 vs 6.15

Chances Created:

2.77 vs 1.85

Total Shots:

2.62 vs 2.85

Shots in the Box:

1.69 vs 1.77

Shots on Target

0.92 vs 1.23

So, despite Firmino scoring more often without Coutinho, his goal threat stats are very similar in terms of shots and shots in the box, regardless of whether Coutinho plays. Granted, they are greater without him, but only by very small margins.

It is the other stats which may add value to the narrative. Firmino takes a more creative role when Coutinho plays and has fewer touches in the box – so maybe he’s drifting around the pitch, playing in deeper areas?

Finally, his average shots on target drops by 25% when Coutinho plays. So, perhaps, he is still hitting his averages for shooting, but is simply not afforded such a good quality of chances when Coutinho is in the team?

… Or perhaps that’s nonsense. Perhaps Firmino’s underlying stats are simply profiting from a purple patch in form from GW21-25 last season, which just accidentally coincided with Coutinho being absent. The truth of the matter is, we just cannot say for certain with such a small sample size.

THEORIES ABOUT THE THEORY

The trouble is there are many reasons why this could be happening. But ultimately, what do we want here as a Firmino owner? Firmino to do best.

One theory could be that Firmino has simply had easier fixtures when Coutinho was out. Let’s attempt to remove fixture-bias from this then – what do we want then? Really, it’s not about Firmino’s raw numbers, it’s about his share of Liverpool’s underlying stats – good fixture or bad.

If we work on this basis, it doesn’t matter who Liverpool are playing or what Firmino’s actual numbers are. We just want to know what his share was of Liverpool’s overall play. So here they are:

(Remember, WITH vs WITHOUT Coutinho):

Share of Liverpool Chances Created by Firmino:

16.7% vs 15.5%

Share of Liverpool Total Shots by Firmino:

12.6% vs 18.8%

Share of Liverpool Shots in the Box by Firmino:

15.2% vs 22.5%

Now this is where it gets interesting. The numbers above show quite large differences – in summary, Firmino is having a lot more of Liverpool’s shots (total and in the box) when Coutinho isn’t there.

If Liverpool have 20 shots or 5 shots, it doesn’t matter – we just want Firmino’s percentage to be as high as possible, no matter who else is on the pitch.

In theory, you could try to work out where his share is disappearing to. One simple theory would be that Coutinho is shot-hungry – his greed keeps the ball from getting to Firmino. However, it may not be Coutinho’s fault in such simple terms – perhaps Firmino moves into Coutinho’s left-wing role when he’s out, and Liverpool often then play with a main striker. Those theories can be explored, but I’m here to talk Firmino…

CONCLUSION

Whilst I’d love to be bold, this conclusion will essentially be inconclusive. It is impossible to say for certain that Coutinho is bad for Firmino with such a small sample size, and a whole host of factors that could have caused the above. However, there is evidence that Firmino is a better Fantasy option when he’s the only Brazilian in town, even if we can’t blame Coutinho with real certainty.

This has certainly proved there is a theory to monitor though. In the next few weeks, it will be worth running the eye over Firmino’s performances, and checking out his numbers too. Whilst it may never have the incredible energy Jurgen Klopp craves from favourite man Firmino, this theory might just have legs.