Time To Take Theo Seriously

Theo Walcott; Fantasy Premier League Gold. Two phrases that have gone together so frequently in the past, despite lingering doubts over his fitness and ability to stay in Arsene Wenger’s good books.

Yet this season, all is rosy – but his ownership stands at only 3%. So what’s the big problem?

I’m here to tell you there isn’t one – here are four key reasons why “our Theo” should be the apple of our eye.

PEDIGREE

As I’ve alluded to, Walcott is proven Fantasy material. Now in his 11th Premier League season, Walcott is soon to become Wenger’s longest serving player across his whole Arsenal reign.

And in those previous 10 seasons, Walcott has shown inconsistency in minutes, but his goal-scoring has rarely been in doubt. The Englishman endured a poor season last term, with only five goals in 1,373 minutes – in the previous two injury-hit seasons though, he still managed to reach this figure in very restricted appearances (447 minutes and 860 minutes both putting him as a one-in-two scorer).

His truly exceptional Fantasy reputation came in 2012/13, though. In that season, he almost joined the elusive 200-point FPL club, racking up 14 goals and 13 assists on the way to finishing on 194 points overall. Now back into a consistent rhythm, this is the Walcott we should be hoping for.

FIXTURES

Very little needs to be said about Arsenal’s upcoming fixtures:

bur/SWA/MID/sun/TOT

It really is that good. The first four fixtures pit Arsenal against two promoted teams, a leaky Sunderland side and a Swansea team potentially on the brink of sacking their manager. The home fixture at Tottenham so often promises goals, and Walcott’s record of five goals and five assists in 17 appearances is equally promising, if you choose to hold onto the winger in the longer term.

With Liverpool’s midfielders looking worthy of a double-up, why would Sanchez and Walcott not prove an equally explosive combination?

FORM

This is an area where few are doubting Walcott – he has started the season very well. With three goals and two assists, he sits ninth overall – sitting less than half a dozen points behind the likes of Phillipe Coutinho, Adam Lallana, Michail Antonio and Heung-Min Son.

Looking at the underlying statistics, there appears no reason for Walcott to fall out of this esteemed company. Looking at the season as a whole, he sits:

=3 for Big Chances

=2 for Shots Inside the Box

And is outright #1 for Shots on Target

This is a Walcott close to the peak of his powers.

NAILED-ON

This is where the doubts ultimately lie about Walcott – including, until recently, with myself. However, my opinion on this has changed.

Look back at Arsene Wenger’s team selections, and for 95% of the time, he will set up his front five behind the striker as:

• ‘Destroyer’ – The likes of Mikel Arteta, Mathieu Flamini, Francis Coquelin in recent seasons, stretching to Aaron Ramsey if forced, and now the likes of Granit Xhaha too.
• ‘Playmaker’ – The central midfield maestro, currently being performed by Santi Cazorla – but also by Jack Wilshere, Aaron Ramsey
• ‘The #10’ – Mesut Ozil, quite simply.
• ‘The Winger’ – Predominantly, this has been Alexis Sanchez when fit, which is the position Walcott would hold too.
• ‘The Wide Playmaker’ – This is the key position for Wenger. When Sanchez plays wide, the opposite flank would typically be a more technical, measured player. This is a position held most recently by Aaron Ramsey, and prior to that, Santi Cazorla on the left-hand side.

Now I would agree, this is all seems very Football Manager. And it comes with a very large caveat – as with the situation now, resulting in Wenger playing Alex Iwobi and Walcott on the flanks, this is very dependent on Arsenal’s injury issues at any given time. However, the history would show that Wenger will very rarely play with two out-and-out wingers when given the choice – and Sanchez trumps Walcott there every day.

BUT… Wenger’s comments this week and the authority with which they beat Chelsea says a lot:

I think he used to be 90 per cent forward and 10 per cent defending. Today he is 50-50. He does the job both ways and he does it both ways with commitment. And I always felt there is character and intelligence in this boy. He is a guy with a good assessment of his performances and qualities – Wenger.

Wenger now trusts Walcott to defend. His attacking qualities are not in doubt. This is the key element to a nailed Theo Walcott.

CONCLUSION

Ultimately, if Walcott continues to play well, both Arsene Wenger and Fantasy managers will want him in their team. If he loses his Arsenal place now, it will only be because of poor form – and that will see him leave your team regardless. The return of Olivier Giroud and Aaron Ramsey may see him substituted, but Wenger picks Premier League teams to win matches – and right now, Walcott is part of that winning team.

In the £7m – £8m bracket in FPL, he is easily as nailed as Michail Antonio (in the sense of him being nailed at right-wing) and Adam Lallana – but Walcott provides pedigree backed quality, natural goal-scoring ability and a proven bar of FPL Gold.