Relegation battling differentials

Price Change Predictions

	Player	Club	Factors
No Change	Haaland	MCI	A, Vs
Up	Thiago	BRE	A
Down	Mateta	CRY	C
No Change	Welbeck	BHA	C, Rest
No Change	Woltemade	NEW	B

Risers

Fallers

Player	Team	Price	Progress	Tonight
Bruno G.	NEW	6.8m	34.0%	Likely
Guéhi	CRY	5.1m	89.7%	Likely
J.Timber	ARS	6.4m	95.0%	Likely
Raya	ARS	5.9m	91.9%	Likely
Casemiro	MUN	5.5m	98.4%	Likely
Neto	CHE	7.2m	75.0%	Unlikely
Thiago	BRE	6.8m	25.0%	Unlikely
Roefs	SUN	4.7m	85.6%	Unlikely
Truffert	BOU	4.5m	88.3%	Unlikely
Mitchell	CRY	5.0m	84.0%	Unlikely
Cullen	BUR	5.0m	84.1%	Unlikely
Tavernier	BOU	5.5m	82.7%	Unlikely
Matheus N.	MCI	5.3m	76.8%	Unlikely
Petrović	BOU	4.5m	79.6%	Unlikely
Szoboszlai	LIV	6.6m	80.1%	Unlikely
J.Palhinha	TOT	5.5m	76.4%	Unlikely
Gvardiol	MCI	5.8m	69.6%	Unlikely
Saka	ARS	10.1m	66.0%	Unlikely
Woltemade	NEW	7.5m	0.9%	Unlikely
Dúbravka	BUR	4.0m	71.5%	Unlikely
Burn	NEW	5.1m	50.2%	Unlikely
Amad	MUN	6.3m	65.3%	Unlikely
Sánchez	CHE	4.8m	62.7%	Unlikely
Rogers	AVL	6.9m	72.1%	Unlikely
De Ligt	MUN	5.0m	67.4%	Unlikely
King	FUL	4.5m	62.1%	Unlikely
Verbruggen	BHA	4.4m	47.3%	Unlikely
Lacroix	CRY	5.1m	53.3%	Unlikely
O.Dango	BRE	6.0m	57.5%	Unlikely
Livramento	NEW	4.9m	47.0%	Unlikely
Ballard	SUN	4.6m	55.6%	Unlikely
Barnes	NEW	6.4m	45.6%	Unlikely
Schade	BRE	7.0m	53.9%	Unlikely
Donnarumma	MCI	5.7m	51.9%	Unlikely
Chalobah	CHE	5.2m	48.7%	Unlikely
Sessegnon	FUL	5.4m	48.1%	Unlikely
Merino	ARS	6.0m	14.2%	Unlikely
Muñoz	CRY	6.1m	16.7%	Unlikely
Gusto	CHE	4.9m	45.7%	Unlikely
Anderson	NFO	5.4m	44.2%	Unlikely

Connecting to LiveFPL...

We can't connect to LiveFPL right now, check back shortly

Player	Team	Price	Progress	Tonight
Semenyo	BOU	7.7m	45.8%	Likely
Georginio	BHA	5.7m	90.2%	Likely
Coppola	BHA	4.3m	96.0%	Likely
Vicario	TOT	5.0m	96.4%	Likely
Pinnock	BRE	4.3m	95.2%	Maybe
Maguire	MUN	4.4m	94.2%	Maybe
Kerkez	LIV	5.7m	93.8%	Maybe
Dixon	EVE	3.9m	95.2%	Maybe
Welch	EVE	3.9m	92.8%	Maybe
Okafor	LEE	5.5m	94.4%	Unlikely
Tel	TOT	6.3m	95.5%	Unlikely
Mainoo	MUN	4.7m	91.9%	Unlikely
Boateng	BUR	4.8m	90.4%	Unlikely
George	CHE	4.9m	91.9%	Unlikely
Ortega Moreno	MCI	4.8m	91.3%	Unlikely
Darlow	LEE	4.0m	88.2%	Unlikely
Knight	BHA	4.5m	84.7%	Unlikely
João Pedro	CHE	7.4m	72.3%	Unlikely
Travers	EVE	4.4m	90.8%	Unlikely
Arrizabalaga	ARS	4.2m	85.9%	Unlikely
Kelleher	BRE	4.5m	88.7%	Unlikely
Mac Allister	LIV	6.3m	85.6%	Unlikely
Neave	NEW	4.4m	83.9%	Unlikely
M.Salah	LIV	14.1m	73.3%	Unlikely
Baleba	BHA	4.7m	83.9%	Unlikely
Cox	BRE	4.0m	84.5%	Unlikely
Gruev	LEE	4.8m	81.0%	Unlikely
Christie	BOU	5.0m	82.5%	Unlikely
McGill	BHA	4.0m	83.8%	Unlikely
Akinmboni	BOU	3.9m	82.6%	Unlikely
Young	AVL	4.4m	82.8%	Unlikely
Colwill	CHE	4.8m	83.2%	Unlikely
Jordan	BUR	4.0m	80.1%	Unlikely
Byram	LEE	3.9m	78.6%	Unlikely
Sonne	BUR	3.9m	82.2%	Unlikely
Obi	MUN	4.3m	79.9%	Unlikely
Tonali	NEW	5.4m	71.4%	Unlikely
Gabriel	ARS	6.3m	70.3%	Unlikely
Matete	SUN	4.4m	83.2%	Unlikely
Webster	BHA	4.4m	72.0%	Unlikely

Connecting to LiveFPL...

We can't connect to LiveFPL right now, check back shortly

FPL Fixture Ticker

Watchlists

	Player	Club	Factors
No Change	Raya Martin	ARS	C
No Change	Alisson	LIV	C, Vs
No Change	Donnarumma	MCI	C, Vs, Sus
No Change	Ramsdale	NEW	C
No Change	Sels	NFO	B
No Change	Dubravka	BUR	C, £

Last updated: 6 Dec, 2025 12:36am

	Player	Club	Factors
No Change	van Dijk	LIV	B, Vs
No Change	Muñoz	CRY	A, Sus
No Change	Jurriën Timber	ARS	C
No Change	O’Reilly	MCI	B, Vs
No Change	de Ligt	MUN	B, Inj
No Change	Thiaw	NEW	A
No Change	Andersen	FUL	B
No Change	Milenkovic	NFO	B
No Change	van Hecke	BHA	A, £
No Change	Mukiele	SUN	C, £

Last updated: 6 Dec, 2025 12:41am

	Player	Club	Factors
No Change	Saka	ARS	A
No Change	Bruno Fernandes	MUN	B
No Change	Foden	MCI	A, Vs
No Change	Semenyo	BOU	C
No Change	Gakpo	LIV	B, Vs, Rest
No Change	Minteh	BHA	B
No Change	Bruno Guimarães	NEW	A
Up	Schade	BRE	C
No Change	Anderson	NFO	A, £
Down	Fernández	CHE	B

Last updated: 6 Dec, 2025 12:48am

	Player	Club	Factors
No Change	Haaland	MCI	A, Vs
Up	Thiago	BRE	A
Down	Mateta	CRY	C
No Change	Welbeck	BHA	C, Rest
No Change	Woltemade	NEW	B

Relegation candidates always seem to perform much better during the last few games of the season. We often see dramatic great escapes from the likes of Sunderland and Newcastle, which leads to an increase in goals, assists and clean sheets from unexpected low-owned players.

This article will take a look at the last two campaigns to find out whether Premier League relegation batters are a good place to look for season run in differentials.

I have decided to review the averages statistics of relegation battlers in 2015 and 2016 Gameweek 32-28 vs Gameweek 1-38

Teams

2014/2015 Sunderland. Aston Villa, Hull and Burnley

2015/2016 Sunderland, Newcastle and Norwich

2015/2016

	Average goals per game		Average conceded per game		Average clean sheets per game
	GW 32-38	GW 1-38	GW 32-38	GW 1-38	GW 32-38	GW 1-38
Sunderland	1.71	1.26	1	1.63	0.43	0.18
Newcastle	1.86	1.16	1	1.71	0.43	0.21
Norwich	1.00	1.03	1.86	1.76	0.00	0.13

Summary

The statistics were more comprehensive than I expected when indicating improved performance at the season end. Newcastle and Sunderland would of scored nearly 70 goals if they had maintained their goal scoring form over the season and only just behind Chelsea 73 and Arsenal 71. The clean sheets chance also considerably improved to 16, which is only one behind Chelsea.

2014/2015

	Average goals per game		Average conceded per game		Average clean sheets per game
	GW 32-38	GW 1-38	GW 32-38	GW 1-38	GW 32-38	GW 1-38
Sunderland	1	0.82	1.29	1.39	0.43	0.34
Aston Villa	1.57	0.82	2.14	1.50	0.29	0.26
Hull	0.57	0.87	1.14	1.34	0.43	0.26
Burnley	0.29	0.74	0.57	1.39	0.43	0.26

Summary

A similar picture is painted, with Aston Villa nearly doubling their goals output from 0.82 to 1.57 goals per game, which equates to a potential 59 goals over a season ( top four performance levels). The three clean sheets out of seven for Sunderland, Villa and Burnley are double their average and are at a title winning level if maintained over a season.

Conclusion

I think based on the results that looking beyond the top four teams over the remaining games could be vital in catching our mini league leaders. There are risks with this as a strategy as you may miss out on high owned players points and this would have a more negative impact on your overall rank not just your mini-league.

A key conclusion is the improved defensive returns among relegation scrappers, which indicates defenders from Middlesbrough, Swansea, Hull and Sunderland could be key differentials for those looking to catch mini-league leaders.

Player Recommendations

Hull – Maguire, Robertson, Clucas, Hernandez and Markovic

Sunderland- Pickford, Kone, Denayer, Janzaj and Anichebe

Middlesbourgh- Brannagan, Gibson, Valdes, De Roon and Negredo

Swansea – Fabianski, Naughton, Fer and of course Sigurdsson

Clifford☯

8 years, 7 months ago

Cheers. Nice article.
Already brought Gibson & Negredo for the DGW.

Open Controls

Numb

Thanks Kryten. Any reason why you're not recommending Defoe?

Kryten
8 years, 7 months ago
I admit I forgot to list Defoe . If I am honest I prefer defenders from the relegation candidates eg Kone as the attackers in the top teams potential explosiveness will out weigh potential consistency of relegation strikers like Defoe
Open Controls
- Permalink
Login To Reply
1. Toast
  8 years, 7 months ago
  Don't forget the attackers though. I have fond memories of Townsend at Newcastle. Crouch at Norwich. There is always something more rewarding about unearthing a hidden gem.
  
  Out of the above Sunderland fixtures are the best. I think todays game will be key. I'm playing Pickford in the hope of a turnaround. I would also fancy Hull and Swansea to do well. Middlesbrough fixtures look awful though so I'm ignoring them apart from this double GW as I can wildcard them out after
  Open Controls
  - Permalink
  Login To Reply
  1. Kryten
    8 years, 7 months ago
    Yeah maybe middlesbourgh are down. I have Pickford he needs to start replying my faith in him and started getting as many points of Heaton. I agree with you hull and Swansea should see a big form increase so I decided to start McGuire in hope he starts
    Open Controls
    Login To Reply