Following The Herd

Fresh from my first community article Emotion versus Algorithms, which pitted the cold hold logic of Fantasy Football Scout’s Rate My Team tool against human emotion, I will now try to tackle the second dilemma facing my Gameweek 1 squad select – following the herd, or rather when to follow it and when to run for the hills to avoid it.

What strikes me ahead of the new season is that there seems to be a real lack of difference in the bulk of rate my team posts, leading me to think that this summer’s herd mentality is particularly strong.

One factor could be the way advice is sought, usually through rate my team style posts. Often the feedback given is from Fantasy managers looking to justify their own team selections, this can fuel a consensus of thought and help templates to form.

Taking a look at some of the more popular picks there is certainly evidence to suggest that the herd has moved beyond a canter and is now running at full steam.

The Herd’s Top Picks

Kieran Trippier currently sits in 20.3% of FPL teams – not bad for a player that finished last season on 51 points. The herd has decided that he will prosper as the number one right back at Tottenham after Kyle Walker’s departure. With a lack of competition for his place there is certainly logic to following the herd here.

But then there’s Ben Foster to consider. The West Brom stopper is the third highest owned goalkeeper, despite keeping a mere six clean sheets in a Tony Pulis managed side last time out. A herd mentality has kicked in though surrounding his strong early fixtures (BOU, burn STK, bha, WHU), which has made him the key 4.5 goalkeeper to own. But why are more not backing West Ham’s Joe Hart or Watford’s Heurelho Gomes, both of whom could rack up considerable save points over that same run?

Another herd favourite is Reuben Loftus-Cheek, who sits in an incredible 15% of FPL sides and is the top selected 4.5 midfielder. On loan at Crystal Palace the herd seems adamant he will maintain value and provide a source of points when needed. But my personal view is that he is far from nailed on and is an early price fall waiting to happen, especially if he doesn’t start Gameweeks 1 and 2. Why are more not selected Swansea’s Tom Carroll, who is priced the same, is a nailed on starter and looks set to take on some set piece duties should Swans lynchpin Gylfi Sigurdsson depart as expected? Carroll has an ownership of just 4.3% despite looking like the stronger option.

Regarding these examples – are we following the herd for reassurance? Or does the herd genuinely think that Loftus Cheek has the edge over Carroll, Foster offers more than Hart and that Trippier will be another Kyle Walker – a 5.5 defender that makes a mockery of his price?

There are plenty more examples of the herd mentality taking hold of squad selection. Southampton defenders are another case in point. The Saints have strong opening fixtures (SWA, WHU, hud, WAT, cry) and their new boss Mauricio Pellegrino is seen as a defensive minded manager. But why has Cedric got 15.1% ownership when he looks unlikely to start the season after only just returning to training from a hectic summer of  international commitments? The answer lies, perhaps, in the herd mentality – the same herd that has decided to ignore his team mate Maya Yoshida, who looks certain to start, has scored in pre-season but is owned by a mere 1.3%.

Going Against The Herd Is Tough

It is hard to ignore such frequent advice about players such as Cedric or Loftus-Cheek, especially when backed with good algorithm predictions such as discussed in my previous article. It’s especially hard when you bring in the fear factor.

If the community is right and we try to veer away from players such as Trippier and Foster then we could find ourselves behind the curve.

None of us like to feel we have been influenced and I’m sure we could all justify each or our current player selections.  But step back and take a moment to ask yourself, are you in danger of following the herd and where is your point of difference?

You should also consider why you feel safer in the herd. If you gain comfort from knowing that you won’t fall too behind serious FPL players then that is a perfectly understandable.

If there is one area where the herd may come under greatest threat it is around premium forwards, and in particular Harry Kane.

The Tottenham striker is the second most popular forward with 35% ownership but is still a clear 13% behind Romelu Lukaku‘s commanding 48.1% support. The herd is clearly unsure whether or not last season’s golden boot winner will prosper playing home games at Wembley or can overcome his traditional slow starts.

The herd is also wary to offer any other premium forwards the same commitment they are showing to Lukaku, with Manchester City’s Gabriel Jesus and Sergio Aguero, Arsenal’s Alexandre Lacazette or Chelsea’s Alvaro Morata, each sitting in less than a fifth of sides.

There is less than two weeks before Gameweek 1’s kick off and it remains to be seen whether following the herd or flying solo will prosper as strategies. But if the herd’s picks are to fail they will need to act fast in the transfer market, as the bigger the ownership means the faster their price will fall.