Transfers

Market Forces – Gameweek 5

Another eventful Gameweek comes to a close, handing us possibly the biggest transfer bandwagon of the season so far.

Paul Pogba’s injury setback fuelled much market activity before the deadline, but that could pale in significance when compared with the return to prominence of an overlooked Fantasy legend.

This Gameweek, 7,142,233 total transfers were made – only a slight drop on the 7,863,661 last time out – suggesting that a high proportion of managers are very much involved with their squads and driving the current trends.

Continuing our series of weekly articles, we at whogottheassist.com are reviewing and commenting on behaviours in the Fantasy Premier League market place, looking at common themes and giving our view on the viability of the transfers taking place.

King Kun returns…

After a 20-point haul served notice of Sergio Aguero’s continued ability to strike fear into the hearts of both defences and non-owning Fantasy managers, Kun has returned to prominence with a bang.

Almost written off as playing second fiddle to Gabriel Jesus at the beginning of the season, the auto-captain of old has surely never scored such a huge tally while owned by so few.

Only 10% (he was in around 500,000 teams) were savvy enough to keep the faith with the Argentinian ahead of the trip to Watford.

A flurry of transfers has followed as FPL managers fall over themselves to work Aguero into their squads.

He’s already restored to his starting price of 11.5, having suffered a fall to 11.4 in the first few Gameweeks, with another overnight hike on the cards.

In the last 24 hours alone, we’ve seen more than 195,000 new managers swoop, with all manner of premium forwards – Romelu Lukaku, Roberto Firmino, Harry Kane and, to a lesser extent Alvaro Morata – all making way.

In some cases his strike partner Gabriel Jesus has been the makeweight, with almost 18,000 making an awkward and perhaps ill-fated sideways shuffle.

Both Kane (who recently rose back to 12.5 ahead of the “gimme” that never was against Swansea City) and Firmino (now 8.7) were recent bandwagons which seem to have been derailed by their own failings and the rise of Aguero.

Again, this demonstrates how fickle the market can be: one week’s hero becomes the next week’s zero.

However, the Lukaku sales are perhaps the most interesting factor.

Over 45,000 managers have now sold the United striker for his City rival, either before or even following the Belgian’s return of 12 points (goal, assist, max bonus) against his former club Everton.

Lukaku was also shedding owners prior to Sunday’s haul, with more than 101,000 moving him on ahead of Friday’s deadline.

The Belgian’s consistency – he’s now scored five in five – and huge ownership (still at over 50%) should obviously be considered prior to his sale, but we’re seeing many a manager blinded by the explosive potential of Aguero.

Perhaps Jose Mourinho’s comments suggesting that Lukaku has lost penalty duties is a factor. Maybe United’s disappointing performance on Sunday is another. Only time will tell if a switch from Lukaku to Aguero will pay off, but there’s no doubting the risk involved.

…and so does his assister

Another man to return to prominence is the diminutive wizard David Silva, whose 11 points at Watford would have delighted his near-150,000 new Gameweek 5 owners.

Silva was a major beneficiary of sales of Paul Pogba, with 60,818 of his new managers swapping him in for the Frenchman.

Our memories of sepia-tinged seasons past were reanimated in watching City’s display against the Hornets.

Silva’s pair of assists – he’s up to four for the season – supplied Aguero’s second goal and also a first of the season for Nicolas Otamendi (another to rise in price). Throughout Saturday’s display, Silva’s silky, string-pulling performance, reminded us of his qualities and hinted at a new potency as an FPL asset.

Now at 8.3 (0.3 up from a kind starting price of 8.0), if he’s able to build on this start he may also prove to be an irresistible force to sit alongside a City striker in our squads.

Many already think so: 168,000+ have brought in Silva since Friday’s deadline, no doubt hoping that the Spaniard will fill his boots in Gameweek 6’s fixture against a struggling Crystal Palace.

Speaking of assisters…

Armenian playmaker Henrikh Mkhitaryan also continues to see his ownership flourish.

He recorded a first goal of the season on Sunday, rewarding 317,647 new owners ahead of Gameweek 5. Of those, a total of 185,996 were straight swaps from his stricken team-mate Pogba.

Another 76,000+ Pogba owners have also swapped in Mkhitaryan following Sunday’s nine-point return.

Mkhitaryan is the first player to have risen a full 0.5 from his starting price – giving his early adopters a 0.2 in selling value – and he is only the second player to earn more than a million transfers since the start of the season, along with defender Ahmed Hegazi at West Brom.

Gross rush puts Ritchie in the shade

Following up on his astonishing 18-point haul versus West Brom, Brighton playmaker Pascal Gross was on hand to supply the assist for Solly March at Bournemouth on Friday night.

Despite the fact that his side went down 2-1, he still accrued a couple of bonus points to move into fourth in the midfield standings.

With blanks for many of the past flavours of the week in his price bracket – Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting, Richarlison, Jese and Aaron Mooy spring to mind – Gross’ second week of returns has excited FPL managers. Some 84,475 have picked him up in the last 24 hours and more than 150,000 have brought him in since Friday’s tally.

Some have seen an immediate return from making the direct switch from Pogba, with 23,559 swapping to him ahead of Gameweek 5, and 31,000+ taking that route since.

Gross’ returns appear to have blinded managers to another stand-out performer in the same bracket.

Newcastle United’s Matt Ritchie, who has assisted in the past four matches in all competitions, has enjoyed only modest interest. Mrre than 69,000 have brought him in, just over a third of the 182,000 who have turned to Brighton’s Gross.

Now valued at 5.6, having risen overnight, it could be that the minor difference in price (0.3 now) is causing the disparity.

(Limited) wind in Lascelles

Staying with the Magpies, their captain Jamaal Lascelles rose to 4.6 in the early hours.

Despite his match-winning goal last week against Swansea City, the centre-back attracted only 66,329 new owners ahead of Gameweek 5, surprisingly lagging behind his defensive team-mates Jesus Gamez (72,879), Ciaran Clark (75,847) and keeper Rob Elliot (104,125).

After scoring his second goal in two outings, though, we have seen him shoot to prominence, with 158,000+ bringing him in ahead of Gameweek 6.

More than 19,000 have downgraded the suspended David Luiz to the Magpies’ skipper.

However, there could be a natural cap in the interest Lascelles will generate, with the availability of 4.0/4.1 options from Newcastle in the form of Chancel Mbemba and bargain-bucket keeper Rob Elliot.

Those two are again picking up interest, with more than 63,000+ turning to Mbemba after his unexpected outing against Stoke City, and almost 38,000+ acquiring Elliot in goal ahead of a Gameweek 6 trip to Brighton.

Will he Otamendi a Luiz-shaped hole?

A final mention goes to the rise of Argentine brawler-cum-defender Nicolas Otamendi, who is picking up traffic off the back of his 12-point goal and clean sheet haul at Watford.

Over 118,000 have acquired his services so far as he picks up significant owners from Luiz’s suspension – almost 33,000 have brought him in as a direct swap for the banned Chelsea defender.

Otamendi has demonstrated a surprising goal threat: a post denied him a first goal at Bournemouth before his strike against Watford. Indeed, only Marcos Alonso can better his seven shots on goal so far among defenders.

But with Vincent Kompany nearing a return, we can’t yet rule out Guardiola’s rotation policy and a first stint on the bench. Given our experience with Ben Davies in Gameweek 5, there is perhaps a need for caution.

Conclusion

The return of Aguero and his sidekick Silva have definitely shaken things up, with many managers no doubt coming to the realisation that City can no longer be ignored.

It’s true that the early template had overlooked City due to Guardiola’s inconsistent teamsheets, but there are now two factors at play.

For one, the City boss appears to be reducing the severity of his rotation – certainly, that’s in evidence to this point. Secondly, his attacking options have proved their ability to blow through teams in such explosive fashion that their potential returns perhaps outweigh any risks at play.

The market continues to revolve, with little sign of order being restored as yet. This is highlighted by Firmino and Kane’s fall from grace, alongside a conveyor belt of mid-price midfielders that shift in and out of favour.

Before Gameweek 5 we saw 223,767 Wildcards played. However, we wonder if, with a shift in fixtures for Chelsea, Everton and Man City approaching, coupled with the latter’s red-hot form, if that number might be surpassed this week.

This could cause another dramatic change in the market, with some assets suddenly commanding a much larger ownership base. Wildcard purchases do not count toward price rises/falls – but they could certainly influence trends to come, depending on whether the popular targets fire or fail.

Either way, expect more turbulence as we move out of the first five Gameweeks and things perhaps begin to settle, with template squads firming up.

Nick and Tom WGTA We're Individual and Matamatics on FFS, and started our own site to add our voice to the FPL community and for FFS in particular.

3,358 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Live Lad
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Alli or Eriksen on WC? No Kane.

    1. IAWC ( It's a Wonderfu…
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Alli

    2. TheEgyptianKing
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      eriksen

    3. Sune
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Eriksen

  2. Tigers Time
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Just WC this week, is this team to radical with 442

    Fabianski
    Davies Jones Kolasinac Cédric
    Mkhitaryan Salah Eriksen Antonio
    Jesus Agüero

    Subs: Elliot Mbemba King Ayew

    1. Up the tics
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      It's a nice team but the bench is non existant and you need a bench with some of them players slightly at risk of rotation

    2. FC Hakkebøf
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Who Will you captain in gw7 when city plays Chelsea away?

      1. Tigers Time
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Miki as they ar at homde to Crystal Palace

    3. Pegboy
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Not a fan of the eggs in one basket frontline

  3. Bambi
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    How's this for a wildcard team? Any obvious mistakes?

    Elliot Krul
    Kolasinac Jones Fernandez Mee (Huniemier)
    Salah Silva Ritchie Gross Carroll
    Lukaku Kane Jesus

    1. FC Hakkebøf
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Looks nice though I would prefer kun over Jesus.. but om very influenced by his recent haul

    2. Man Chest Hair United
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Pretty good. I'm thinking a little differently and spending big at the back with 4 big up front too

    3. Game of Throw_ins
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Nice team actually.
      Krul to woodman maybe to cover elliot injury. Naughton more attacking than Fernandez at same price.

      1. Bambi
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Fernandez gets more baps than naughton

    4. maratus
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      GTG

    5. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Frayed round the edges. Why not Naughton? Why Krul? What will you do if Sánchez comes back? Or even when Mané returns?

      It is all a bit tight and predictable, for me at least.

    6. Pegboy
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Good team. Was close to my GW1 team before I ripped it up over the past few weeks *sobs*

    7. frenchfries
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Mee might drop this week

  4. Man Chest Hair United
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Thoughts on this back heavy wildcard team?

    Elliot
    Kolasanic Davies Mendy Alonso Jones
    Sanchez Ritchie
    Vardy Kun c Jesus

    Krul RLC Carroll Chaloabh

    1. Bambi
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Never like three 4.5 mids

      1. Man Chest Hair United
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Allows some huge players in the team though

    2. FC Hakkebøf
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      To heavy in the back imo.. come gw 8-11 CS will not come easy since All the top teams face eachother

    3. ste_the_legend
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Bit risky to double up on Aguero and Jesus.

      I don't see Sanchez as justifying his price tag anytime soon either tbh, would downgrade him.

  5. ste_the_legend
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Thinking of bringing in Ritchie and Jesus for Alli and Chicharito.

    Sensible or crazy?

    1. Man Chest Hair United
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Very sound

    2. FC Hakkebøf
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      As Long as you have spurs cover

      1. ste_the_legend
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Have got Kane.

    3. Live Lad
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Like it

    4. Pegboy
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Decent.

  6. maratus
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Morning lads! My team is mess, could need some advice.

    DDG (Elliot)
    Kola yoshida Hegazi (Dunk Mason)
    Pogpa* Alli Atsu Tadic (Carroll)
    Lukaku Kane Chicharito

    2 FT , 2.0 ITB.. using wc in 2 weeks or so..

    a) Pogpa, Alli, Chicharito -> Silva, Fabregas, Jesus
    b) Pogpa Alli Chicha -> Silva, Fab, Lacazette
    c) Dunk, Pogpa, Chicha -> Mbemba, Ramsey , Jesus
    d) Something else? Just pogpa -> Silva or Mkhi

    1. weaver93
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Pogba - Silva.
      Chic - Vardy/Firmino..

      1. maratus
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Thx!

      2. Pegboy
        • 13 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        This looks good. Probably Vardy, if fit

  7. Pochecinno
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Any merit to getting Cahill instead of Alonso? 0.8 price difference and Cahill possesses a very real goal threat as well.

    1. BigManBakar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I think so. I'd look at it in GW 8. The goal threat and the security of starts is one of the reasons I picked Alderweireld over Davies.

      1. Sims
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        the chelsea one is a bit different though. alonso just as secure to start and has a better goal + assist threat. cahill has the edge on bps though

        1. BigManBakar
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          He's cheaper too.

    2. Pochecinno
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Cheers guys

    3. pundit of punts
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I'm thinking about it. But Alonso is too good to ignore. He'll conjure up another huge score soon.

  8. FC Hakkebøf
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Elliot (Foster)

    Jones, Davies, Naughton (TAA Mbemba)

    Miki Eriksen Salah Caroll (RLC)

    Kane Aguero Firminho

    0.3 itb 0 ft -4

    Feel like im g2g?

    Might bring in Kaku for Kun gw7 and switch back gw8 if I can count on TAA starting vs Newcastle (I reckon he wont start vs Leicester but will start vs Newcastle). Might decide to stick with Kun and save ft depending on how Kane does this week (need to see if he is a reliable captain option in gw7).

  9. GuillermoDickero
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Would you do....

    Eriksen & Rodriguez ----> RLC & Aguero

    Would give me Salah, Mhiki, Carroll, RLC, Atsu in Midfield

    1. Pegboy
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Not the worst move (Rodriquez is garbage), but I think you may regret ditching Eriksen.

      Is it for a hit?

      1. GuillermoDickero
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Yeah I think I might regret it. But as you said Rodriguez has been very poor. And yes it's for a hit

        My alternative move is:

        Suttner & Maguire ----> Kolasinac + Naughton

        1. Pegboy
          • 13 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          No point ditching Maguire before a decent run of fixtures for a hit. What's the rest of your team?

          1. GuillermoDickero
            • 9 Years
            6 years, 6 months ago

            Team is:

            Forster, Elliott
            Suttner, Mee, Jones, Davies, Maguire
            Eriksen, Salah, Mhiki, Atsu, Carroll
            Kane, Kaku, Rodriguez

            1. Pegboy
              • 13 Years
              6 years, 6 months ago

              I'd roll the FT or do the Eriksen move. Look to downgrade Forster asap to free up some cash.

  10. FC Hakkebøf
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Hypothetical question:

    A) Salah + Lacazette
    B) Mkhitaryan + Sanchez

    1. Pegboy
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Neither Arsenal appeals at the moment. Maybe a) if you forced me.

    2. FC Hakkebøf
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I agree.. which is why is was hypothetical.. On the other hand it is hard to ignorere their upcoming fixtures.. and someone has to get amongst the goal.. if feel Lacazette and Sanchez are the most likely.. Could be sweet to catch Them Early on Hope for a turnaround in form.. they played well against Chelsea. But too many other good options at this point

    3. Eden ACCOUNT CLOSED
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Asking for a mate?

  11. pundit of punts
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Everyone please buy Silva,Otamendi and Lascelles.

    Need them 0.1m profits on WC. 😛

    1. Eoin Jess
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Thought about all three. Bought the latter.

  12. Mind över Mata
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Do I play Danilo (CRY), with Yoshida (MUN) on the bench.

    Or do Danilo -> Kola / Monreal or Davies?

    1. Eoin Jess
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      As long as it isn't for a hit - I'd transfer Danilo to Kola or Davies. Both are likely starters with attacking potential. Davies more nailed and has proved himself. Kola more of a risk as his attacking threat has yet to be converted into points.

  13. _____JR_____
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Y wasn't ben davies playing this week? Time to get rid?

    1. Pegboy
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Had a knock. No, nailed on for a while. Rose is still months away, seemingly.

    2. Eoin Jess
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I'd keep the faith with him. Reasons: 1) He was rested/carrying a knock. 2) Spurs didn't play brilliantly without him, 3) His replacement Son didn't exactly "set the heather alight" against Swansea. I think Davies stock has risen so I've drafted him into my WC team

  14. Millie7
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Foster - (elliot)
    Trippier - Jones - Naughton - Otamendi - (lascelles)
    Silva - Salah - Mkhi - Gross - (carroll)
    Aguero - Kane - (solanke)

    on wildcard with 2.0 itb...any obvious changes???

  15. Eoin Jess
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Thoughts on this WC team?

    Fabianski - Elliot
    Kola - Davies - Jones - Naughton - Lascelles
    Eriksen - Mkhi - Ritchie - Gross - King
    Kane - Aguero - Frimino

    0 ITB

    The aim was for the bench players to be able to cover in case of rotation. Planning to rotate Naughton/Lascelles and Gross depending on fixtures. King was only chosen as he's the player at 4.4.

    1. gazmanstar
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Kane for Lukaku and Firmino to Vardy would save you 1.0, to spend on Atsu instead of King - would beef the midfield up without sacrificing up top (if anything, I think the combo of Vardy & Lukaku will return more points)

  16. gazmanstar
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Comments on a WC team, as I was starting to bomb in my league:

    GK: Foster/Elliot
    Def: Naughton/Ward/Jones/Kiko Fermenia/Lowe
    Mid: Salah/Mkhitaryan/De Bruyne/Gross/Loftus-Cheek
    Fwd: Aguero/Vardy/Lukaku

    Not sure about downgrading a striker or one of the mids for some extra defensive resilience - would prefer to upgrade one or both of Fermenia and Lowe.

    Any suggested improvements?

  17. da7id
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    433 with Mendy; King (Lei) on the bench
    or
    343 with Ritchie; Naughton on the bench (+ 0.5 itb & no other City "cover")

    Any thoughts?

  18. Eden ACCOUNT CLOSED
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Good old Kolasinac LAD

  19. dimitros
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Hemed or Tom Carroll for GW6?