The FA Cup Solutions – Part One

It’s fair to say that the next two rounds of FA Cup fixtures will make a significant impact on the plans of Fantasy managers.

The FA Cup fifth round gets underway this Friday, with those Premier League teams who advance and book a place in the quarter-finals set to blank in Gameweek 31.

Meanwhile, the top-flight sides who progress to the semi-finals would also be without a fixture in Gameweek 35.

Even the Gameweek 28 schedule could be affected – should Man City fail to beat Wigan at the first attempt on Monday night, their league clash with Arsenal, currently scheduled for Thursday March 1, would need to be moved to another date.

Introduced to Fantasy Premier League (FPL) this season, the Free Hit Chip looks the ideal solution to cope with these truncated rounds of fixtures.

With that in mind, we’ll be assessing the optimum strategies when approaching the use of this chip as a means of navigating this period of the season.

In this part, we specifically look at the merits of playing the Free Hit for Gameweek 31.

That will then be followed by analysis of the alternative strategy: to steer through Gameweek 31 and deploy the chip in Gameweek 35.

A third article will also look to help those FPL managers without the Free Hit, discussing methods to get through the affected Gameweeks while taking minimal damage to their rank and mini-league standing.

Firstly, let’s look at the issue of Gameweek 31 in terms of the potential impact on the schedule.

The Fixtures

At present, just two matches are guaranteed to play out in Gameweek 31.

Liverpool vs Watford
Stoke City vs Everton

The fixtures added to this will depend on the results from the FA Cup Fifth Round, which looks like this:

Leicester vs Sheffield United
Chelsea vs Hull
Sheffield Wednesday vs Swansea
West Brom vs Southampton
Brighton vs Coventry
Huddersfield vs Man United
Rochdale vs Spurs
Wigan vs Man City

Six of the ten Premier League sides still remaining in the FA Cup – Leicester City, Chelsea, West Brom, Spurs, Huddersfield and Man United – have Gameweek 31 opponents who are already knocked out.

For the first four of those teams, the scenario is pretty straightforward.

If Leicester are defeated by Sheffield United, their Gameweek 31 match at home to Arsenal goes ahead.

If Chelsea lose to Hull, their Gameweek 31 trip to Burnley takes place.

If West Brom are knocked out by Southampton, they’ll be making their way to Bournemouth in Gameweek 31.

And if Spurs lose to Rochdale, their Gameweek 31 home match with Newcastle is good to go.

However, given that Leicester, Chelsea and Spurs all face lower-league opponents, West Brom potentially look the best chance of offering us a Gameweek 31 match (away to Bournemouth). The Baggies have lost home and away to their FA Cup fifth round opponents Southampton already this season.

For the remaining two teams from the six listed above, Huddersfield and Man United’s head-to-head at the John Smith’s Stadium on Friday is key.

Regardless of who advances, we will definitely have a third Gameweek 31 fixture available.

If Huddersfield lose to the Red Devils, then David Wagner’s men will host Crystal Palace in Gameweek 31.

But if Jose Mourinho’s men are knocked out by the Terriers, then United will travel to West Ham in Gameweek 31.

The other four teams – Swansea, Southampton, Man City and Brighton – look far less likely to drop back in.

Swansea and Southampton are currently set to square up in Gameweek 31. But in order for that fixture to go ahead, both sides would need to lose their FA Cup matches with Sheffield Wednesday and West Brom respectively.

Similarly, Man City’s Gameweek 31 home match with Brighton will be postponed should either of them beat their lower league opponents, Coventry and Wigan, respectively.

At present, then, the worst-case scenario for Gameweek 31 is that six teams will have a fixture.

Liverpool, Watford, Stoke and Everton are definites. They will be joined by either Huddersfield and Crystal Palace, or West Ham and Man United.

The Gameweek 31 Free Hit – The Pros

To a degree, your chosen strategy will depend on whether you also have the second Wildcard chip at your disposal.

Having the Wildcard enables managers to use free transfers leading up to Gameweek 31 to bring in players that will be active. The Wildcard can then be used to immediately clear these players out, with future double Gameweek players drafted in as replacements.

If you don’t have the Wildcard, then playing the Free Hit Chip in Gameweek 31 looks a more viable tactic.

These managers need to immediately start thinking about future double Gameweeks, targeting players who are likely to miss out in Gameweek 31 but benefit from two fixtures in a single Gameweek further down the line – most likely Gameweek 34 and possibly Gameweek 37, should they also progress to the semi-final.

By committing to the Free Hit for Gameweek 31 ahead of the Gameweek 28 deadline, it means that all remaining free transfers can be dedicated to this strategy of double Gameweek recruitment.

The Free Hit can then used to temporarily trade these players out in place of a strong 15-man squad fully equipped for the remaining Gameweek 31 fixtures. In theory, this should maximise the potential return.

One caveat to mention at this point is that today’s double Gameweek assets may not be tomorrow’s: injury, loss of form or concerns over pitch-time are all factors that can emerge as the Gameweeks roll by. Those shopping for double Gameweek targets further down the line will have more information in this respect.

Even if you still have a Wildcard, there is still some merit to playing the Free Hit Chip in Gameweek 31.

It gives managers the freedom to totally ignore the looming blanks as a factor and recruit players in form and with good fixtures for the next three Gameweeks.

For example, among those teams who could miss Gameweek 31, the likes of Spurs (cry HUD bou), Leicester (STK BOU wba), Burnley (SOT EVE whu) and Swansea (bha WHU hud) all have schedules that look profitable.

Those who commit to the Gameweek 31 Free Hit now – with plans to Wildcard in Gameweek 32 or perhaps 33 – can hope to gain a real advantage. They not only have a full squad in Gameweek 31, they can also exploit the form of players outside of those teams active in that Gameweek.

The Gameweek 31 Free Hit – The Cons

If FA Cup fifth round results leave just three fixtures in Gameweek 31, then there is the concern that the impact of having a full squad for the matches that remain will be minimal.

If you already own four-to-six players among the Gameweek 31 contingent, it is questionable just how much more potential you can unlock by using the Free Hit chip and fielding eleven players. Much will rely on your ability to hit the remaining big scorers.

Depending on what is left of the fixtures, you could supplement your existing Gameweek 31 players with your remaining free transfers – perhaps enabling you to field seven or eight of the key targets.

The upcoming schedules offered by Liverpool, Everton and Watford all seem potentially profitable and all three have form options to aim for.

Liverpool pair Mohamed Salah (58% ownership) and Roberto Firmino (39%) are already heavily backed, while Virgil van Dijk appeals in defence for a run of five strong fixtures (WHU NEW WAT cry eve) in the next six. Sadio Mane’s hat-trick in Wednesday’s Champions League victory over Porto also adds him to the mix as a potentially powerful differential.

Meanwhile, Everton’s next four (wat bur BRI stk) bring Theo Walcott and Oumar Niasse into consideration, while Watford have four home matches in the next six (EVE WBA BOU BUR) in addition to their Gameweek 31 trip to Anfield.

Gerard Deulofeu, Richarlison or Abdoulaye Doucoure could be worth a roll of the dice, while Stoke’s Xherdan Shaqiri (27 points in the four Gameweeks under Paul Lambert) is now looking value for money at 6.2.

On paper, these currently look to be the key targets for Gameweek 31 that will form the nucleus of any Free Hit squad. If you already own a share of these and can bring in the rest with free transfers, it raises doubts as to the potential gains of deploying the Free Hit chip.

Much depends on how these assets perform versus those players not active in Gameweek 31. However, as mentioned above, the outlook in terms of the fixtures leading up to that point looks favourable enough.

Crucially, this would enable you to retain the Free Hit for use in Gameweek 35 – the weekend of the FA Cup semi-finals.

Without the chip for that Gameweek, you are forced to plan for the likely double Gameweek 37, while also having one eye on the blank fixtures that loom in Gameweek 35.

This could either limit your ability to exploit that final double Gameweek or weaken your line-up for Gameweek 35. It could also undermine your potential if you’re planning to use the Bench Boost chip in Gameweek 34, since you will need to guard against owning too many inactive Gameweek 35 players.

Without the Free Hit, we are faced with a balancing act that would dictate your transfers.

We will look at the Gameweek 35 Free Hit solution in the second part of this series.

For now, we should stress that the appeal of that particular solution is again dependent on the availability of the Wildcard.

Without it, there is the risk of loading up on Gameweek 31 assets and suffering a “hangover” of players surplus to requirements, with the focus at the point firmly on recruiting for the double Gameweeks.

The Gameweek 32-33 schedules of Everton (MCI LIV) and Stoke (ars TOT) in particular, provide a warning that it is far from desirable to go beyond Gameweek 31 with their players on board.

In Conclusion

There are a number of factors affecting FPL managers’ views on using the Free Hit in Gameweek 31.

The current state and make-up of their squad, the number of Chips still in hand and the quantity and quality of fixtures that will take place are all vital.

At present, the worst-case scenario for Gameweek 31 is a total of three fixtures, with six for Gameweek 35 – so far, Everton vs Newcastle, Arsenal vs West Ham, Stoke vs Burnley and Watford vs Crystal Palace are confirmed.

If things remain the same and the cup matches frustrate us, the bigger talent pool for Gameweek 35 may be the deciding factor, particularly if Huddersfield v Crystal Palace drops in as the third fixture.

Yet if Huddersfield prevail and give us West Ham vs Man United instead in Gameweek 31, the goal posts may shift. That would hand us the likes of Marko Arnautovic, Chicharito and Alexis Sanchez as potentially powerful Free Hit targets.

Ultimately, the results from the upcoming round of FA Cup matches will be crucial to how we assess this period of the season as we come to grips with the Free Hit Chip for the first time.

Fortunately, the draw for the quarter-finals of the FA Cup will take place at 8pm this Saturday, to give us a clearer picture of the situation not only for Gameweek 31, but also for projecting the likely impact on Gameweek 35.

That is where we turn next, as we look more closely at the benefits and pitfalls of delaying the Free Hit chip until later in the run-in.