Well that’s the Turf Moor honeymoon over, eh? With a sick joke of a fixture list that starts away to Stoke City, followed by head-to-heads with Manchester United, Everton, Chelsea and Liverpool, perhaps it’s no wonder that Burnley are the first name on most people’s lips when talk comes round to relegation. (I hear you, Mark).

If Owen Coyle and co. need a reason to be cheerful, however, they should look no further than Stoke City themselves. Tony Pulis’ men, the butt of most folks’ predictions this time last year, pulled off the trick with such panache it seems the phrase “to do a Stoke” has already entered footballing terminology when discussing the prospects of promoted sides to the Premiership.

So how did they pull this off? By hauling in thirty five point from their home games, as the Britannia Stadium became a fortress for the Potteries. Indeed, from their nineteen home games alone, Stoke City picked up more points than eighteenth placed Newcastle managed over the entire thirty eight game campaign.

The Statistics

So are the Clarets capable of emulating this success? Let’s begin by checking out last season’s stats

CS = Cleansheets

With almost all their clean sheets coming at Turf Moor, with more goals scored and less conceded, with more wins and half the number of games lost compared to away from home, it’s fair to say that Burnley are more likely to score points when at home. In addition, it seems the more difficult the opposition, the more Burnley rose to the challenge last season; they were unbeaten at home against the Championship top six and also won the three play-off games without conceding a goal.

“But that was the Championship”, some might argue, and the top flight is bigger, badder and full of flat-track bullies who’ll beat the living daylights out of them. Maybe, but a look at Burnley’s cup runs during last season should be cause for optimism. Four times at home, they played Premiership opposition. And the results?

Fulham W 1-0. Arsenal W 2-0. Spurs W 3-2 (aet, result at 90 mins stood at 3-0). West Brom W 3-1.

Four games, four wins, then. And looking at the games over the space of 90 minutes, that is nine goals scored, one conceded, and three clean sheets thrown in for good measure.

How about cup games away from home to Premiership teams?

Chelsea D 1-1 (result after 90 mins, won 5-4 on pens aet) Spurs L 1-4 West Brom D 2-2 Arsenal L 0-3.

Four games, no wins. Away from Turf Moor, it seems Burnley won’t fare particularly well, although their committed approach shows that if a better team aren’t quite at the races, ie, Chelsea, they could easily spring a result.

The Manager

An astute, thoughtful and fantastic motivational coach, Owen Coyle’s first managerial experience was as co-player/manager of Falkirk alongside John Hughes for the second half of the 2002-3 season, which saw the team promoted to the Scottish Premier Division.

His first individual stint as boss, however, came at St Johnstone, where in the 2005-06 season, he led the Perth team to the semi finals of both the Scottish League Cup and Scottish Cup, as well as recording their first win over Rangers at Ibrox for 35 years. All this with a second-tier team, too. With such success it was no surprise, then, to see him move on to bigger challenges at Turf Moor.

His transformation of a largely insipid Burnley side from a mid-table unit into an energetic and attractive footballing side has been even more impressive. Burnley’s shocking start to last season -where they failed to win in the league at all during August- was remedied by Coyle’s change in tactics from a 4-4-2 formation to a more solid 4-1-4-1, giving the side flexibility in both shape and style.

The manager also fashioned an attacking alternative of 4-3-3, and is bold enough to flit between any of these variants in accordance to the opponent and match situation. Regardless of formation, however, the maintenance of a high-tempo pressing game means Coyle tends to substitute from the front, ensuring his forwards don’t give the opposition time to settle whether it be the first or ninetieth minute of any given match.

Promoted Squad

Over the period of a forty six game league season, only fifteen Burnley players appeared in more than half the fixtures, a ridiculously small amount considering the club also went on two impressive cup runs. Further still, a mere eight – yes, eight- members of the Burnley squad were picked to start and finish half or more of the club’s games by Owen Coyle. Bearing that in mind, here’s a quick area-by-area look at the team’s main players last season.

Defence
Goalkeeper- Brian Jensen was Coyle’s number one, only missing one league game all campaign. At both Left Back (Christian Kalvenes and Steven Jordan) and Right Back position (Michael Duff and on-loan Middlesboro man Rhys Williams) Coyle was undecided over his first choice full backs. Centre Halves Steven Caldwell and Clarke Carlisle were nailed-on picks, both weighing in with a handful of goals and assists to aid the team’s cause.

Midfield
Set in stone on the team sheet, Graham Alexander is the shield in front of Coyle’s back four. With 66 successful spot-kicks in 71 attempts, he is also the club’s penalty taker. Chris McCann, the only true box-to-box midfielder at the club, is guaranteed a starting place in centre midfield. Joey Gudjonsson gets his fair share of appearances, but many are from the bench. Wade Elliot’s versatility means he was played either on the wing or in the centre, and of all the club’s creators, was given the most match minutes by Coyle.
Robbie Blake enjoyed a new lease of life since Coyle moved him from centre forward to left wing. The club’s player of the year shares free kick duties with Alexander and takes most of the side’s corners, too. Chris Eagles is similar to Blake with regards to game time (60 odd mins per appearance), but unlike Blake, tends not to take any set-pieces.

Forwards
Martin Patterson, the club’s top scorer, can play as part of a front two pairing, but was also occasionally used wide right by Coyle when Burnley reverted to 4-3-3. Steven Thompson is more a traditional centre forward and is positioned up front through the centre when he plays, but gets less than half an hour per appearance. Jay Rodriguez makes virtually all his appearances from the subs bench as the manager looks to utilise his pace against tiring opposition defences.

Overall
Burnley last season was a strong, adaptable hard-working unit, who combined graft with craft, getting the ball on the deck and playing an easy-on-the-eye passing game whenever possible, whilst harassing opponents when not in possession.

The lack of a true left winger was brilliantly solved by Coyle switching Robbie Blake there, but the pace and intensity of the Premiership could stretch the thirty three year old veteran. Apart from Wade Elliott, the team did not possess a centre midfield creator, meaning most assists came from the wings. The club badly lacked a proven goal-getter, shown by the stats that from Jan 27-April 13, Martin Patterson managed 1 goal in 17 games in all competitions, and he was last season’s top scorer!

New Signings

Owen Coyle has been busy in the transfer market during the close season, and it seems like many of the purchases look like solving most of the problems mentioned above:

Brian Easton comes in at left back. Only 21 years of age, Easton- a left footed purchase- cost £350K from Hamilton Academicals. Missed only 1 game from a 36 game league schedule last season and showed fantastic temperament by picking up only 1 yellow card in the league all season. Added to that, he weighed in with 1 goal and 5 assists (the highest at the club). Despite his young years, Easton is experienced, having already played over one hundred first team games.

Tyrone Mears, a right back, arrives from Derby County for roughly £500K. A pacy, attack-minded defender, 26 year old Mears spent last season on loan at Marseille and has previous Premiership experience with Man City and West Ham.

Richard Eckersley is another right back, signing from Manchester United on a four year deal. Eckersley made his Premiership debut for United last season, but being sixth choice for the Old Trafford side meant the 20yr old was unlikely to get first-team experience. The fee for this former United reserve side player of the year will be decided by tribunal.

David Edgar is a centre back acquired from relegated Newcastle United for an undisclosed fee believed to be in the region of £500K. The 22 year old Canadian played 11 times for the Geordies last season- with 1 goal and 1 assist- and although he can fill in at full back, will be expected to challenge regulars Steven Caldwell and Clarke Carlisle for a slot at the heart of Burnley’s defence. Coyle is a known admirer, having tried several times to sign the player on loan last season.

Steven Fletcher is a centre forward, bought for £3m from Hibernian. The hitman is as adept on the ground as he is in the air, and over the past two seasons has averaged a goal every three games in the two-club procession of a league known as the Scottish Premier. Fletcher’s impressive strike rate of five goals in seven games for Scotland U21’s had Real Madrid’s scouts check him out for a while, and last season Celtic tried unsuccessfully to sign him during the January transfer list. With some decent form shown in pre-season, the 22yr old seems to have hit the ground running already.

Fernando Guerrero, 19, is a left-footed attacking midfielder who can play left wing or just off the front. After a successful pre-season trial, the young Ecuadorian has arrived on loan for the season from Independiente del Valle in his homeland; Coyle is willing to snap the former Real Madrid apprentice up on a permanent basis next season if he continues to impress.

More to come? If there is, then -despite the squad having limited Premiership experience- do not expect Owen Coyle to go busting the bank in order to secure the services of big-salary players. Previous seasons of working with little cash has meant the Burnley gaffer is a master of the bargain-buy. He will continue to target, in his own words, “..young players who we believe can go on to play at the highest level.” This is a man building for the future, not someone looking for a short-term fix.

The Watchlist

Admittedly, it’s a difficult one. You could -like Mark has previously said- just run away very quickly with your hands over your ears shouting “la-la-la!” if someone dares mention Burnley. However. Here’s how you could play it:

Wait until 19th September, when, after “that” run of games, the Clarets start a four game home sequence that sees them up against Sunderland, Birmingham, Wigan and Hull, all winnable fixtures. By the end of the Hull clash, on October 31st, you’ll have a better idea of their home form.

There is no doubt, however, that in fantasy terms, the best way to utilise players from a low-ranked club is to play them only 1) when the team are at home, and 2) away to teams of a similar standing. Away from Turf Moor, bench ‘em against the bigger guns. Let’s be realistic, they won’t do much on their travels against any of the top 12 teams.

So bearing in mind that, potentially, if (and admittedly it could be a big “if”) any one of the three promoted teams can “do a Stoke”, then who’ll be Burnley’s version of the likes of Sorenson, Shawcross, Faye, Delap, Lawrence, Fuller and Beattie? Here are the seven possible points-equivalent players (and prices) you should keep an eye on at Turf Moor:

GK Brian Jensen- (4.0) Will be Coyle’s pick between the posts. Decent at saving penalties, too- his saves knocked Chelsea out of last season’s League Cup when the game went to spot kicks.

DF Steven Caldwell (4.0) Both first choice CB’s are dangerous in the air at set-pieces, and will throw in the odd goal and assist. Out of the two CB’s, however, he has a far better disciplinary record than partner, Clarke Carlisle.

DF Graeme Alexander (4.5) Will take all the club’s penalties, and will almost definitely score them, too. As mentioned before, the defensive midfielder takes a lot of direct free kicks, too. One of the best misclassified players in this season’s FPL game.

MF Chris McCann (5.0) Club’s young player of the year for three years running now. The most consistent midfielder, in terms of both performance and manager selection, McCann could well sneak under the radar.

MF Wade Elliott (5.0) An undoubted talent, but can he produce at the top level? May get less game minutes as the squad expands, but at the moment, is a better choice than the club’s other true winger, Lamborghini-Man Chris Eagles.

FW Robbie Blake (5.5) As mentioned, a winger/ forward who takes free kicks and corners, means his assist rate will compensate for his lack of match minutes.

FW Steven Fletcher (5.5) Scores goals regardless of the playing level, he seems to have already settled well. Capable of showing exactly why he’s so highly thought of.

Was in conversation with the Scottish author Christopher Brookmyre the other week, who, as a St Mirren fan, spends a lot of his time on the terraces up here during the season. He spoke very, very highly of of Brian Easton. So at 4.0, there’s a dark horse for you. And if these tips don’t come off, you can go looking for Brookmyre; he’ll be under “B” in the crime section of a bookshop near you.