Tottenham enter the home stretch of the season with more to play for than most managers could have predicted at the beginning of the season. With a Champions League place there for the taking, Spurs could improve their global brand, tap new revenue streams and topple the status-quo of the Top four. With a double gameweek in front of them, fantasy managers investing in the Tottenham side could reap rewards too…
The Opponents
For the first fixture of the week, Bolton Wanderers visit White Hart Lane in a game that is a replica of the fifth round replay in the FA Cup which Spurs won 4-0. Bolton’s form has been patchy of late, with five losses in the last eight games and Spurs have generally beaten the teams in the lower half of the table, winning twelve out of eighteen of those games with an impressive average of 2.27 goals per game.
Tottenham then travel to Manchester City in one of the biggest games of the season, and for the respective clubs, the biggest game they’ve had for many seasons. Make no mistake; this game is as big as they come. Manchester City’s form has certainly hit some high notes, with a 6-1 thrashing of Burnley and a 5-1 walloping of Birmingham but has also whimpered slightly in the 0-0 draw with Arsenal and the 2-0 defeat at the hands of Everton.
Current Form
Spurs are on a great run of form with six wins in the last eight games, two of those resulting from exceptional performances against Arsenal and Chelsea. Although Spurs are mid-table in the clean sheets league with eleven, they have only conceded twelve goals at home this season – which is as good as anyone has achieved. They are also the only club to have won their last five home games. The only note of caution would be this; their defence has got to be the most frustrating in the league from a fantasy manager’s point of view, Tottenham have a habit of conceding a single goal, which they have done so sixteen times, more than any other club.
The Rotation Risk
With three forwards competing for two places there has been a risk of rotation in Tottenham’s forward line up all season. Jermaine Defoe is losing playing time to midfielder Eidur Gudjohnsen and has failed to complete a game since February 10. Peter Crouch has played only a cameo role in the last four games with Roman Pavlyuchenko being the preferred choice for manager Harry Redknapp.
There’s also the question of a rotation of positions. With the return of Wilson Palacios, Luka Modric has been pushed to the left of midfield, which in turn pushes Gareth Bale into the left back position; this is how they lined up in the first half at Old Trafford on Saturday. Although Bale pushed forward in the second half, this resulted in Benoit Assou-Ekotto and Palacios playing out of position with disastrous results as they were at fault for United’s winning goals. If Bale starts at left back again, it will certainly curtail his attacking returns.
The Potential Targets
Heurelho Gomes
As mentioned in my previous article, Gomes has the highest points-per-game of any of the keepers in the Fantasy Premier League game. He’s selected by 4% of managers and costs only 5.0. He’s a definite consideration if you have Sorenson or Given who were injured over the weekends fixtures.
Predicted Return: 1 clean sheet, 6+ saves
Gareth Bale
Bale has been one of the standout players over the past few gameweeks and his rising price tag reflects this; it now stands at 5.8. He has the most impressive form of any of the defenders, in the last month; he has had the most shots, the most shots on target and is only beaten on “assist attempts” (where a player passes to a player that shoots) by Baines.
He also gets his fair share of set-pieces; not only direct free kicks but -as his Old Trafford assist shows- corners too. The only question mark is whether he can repeat these stats if he’s played at left back and whether Lennon will take some of the play away from him.
He’s by far the most transferred in defender this week and I expect most serious fantasy managers to have him in their line-up. Ignore him at your peril.
Predicted Return: 1 clean sheet, 1 goal, 1 assist, 3 BPs
Michael Dawson
Dawson has been in excellent form this season and may well have wormed his way into Fabio Cappello’s thinking, perhaps over more fashionable candidates. From a Fantasy perspective though, he remains in the colossal shadow of Gareth Bale. Although a stalwart of the Tottenham defence and at 5.2 he is slightly cheaper, if you can in any way afford him, I’d prefer Bale instead.
Predicted Return: 1 clean sheet, 1 BP
Aaron Lennon
Lennon is a key player for Spurs and his return from injury comes at a most opportune time. He only played for 25 minutes against Manchester United but if he’s fit he’ll see a lot of the ball and he’s one of the danger men for Tottenham. Personally, I doubt he’ll play the full 180 minutes this week, but at 7.9 he’s one of the best mid-range midfield options out there.
Predicted Return: 2 assists
Luka Modric
Whilst Lennon is the more obvious Tottenham midfielder, Modric is the player that makes the team tick. He’s a bonus magnet and my stats indicate that he’s been slightly unlucky to only get the points he has. Modric has taken 43 assist attempts to get 3 assists while Lennon has got 9 assists in 38 assist attempts. There’s no denying that Lennon’s passes were probably into more dangerous territory but it’s hardly Modric’s fault his team-mates didn’t have their shooting boots on.
Predicted Return: Might steal a Lennon assist, 2 BP
Jermaine Defoe
No-one doubts the goal-scoring pedigree of Defoe or his willingness to get into goal-scoring situations (his shot tally of 110 is the sixth highest) but his performances after returning from injury have been poor, with even Crouch bettering him in the FPL form table. If you’re tired of the predictable forward line of Bent, Drogba and Tevez then Defoe is an interesting differential.
Predicted Return: 2 goals
Peter Crouch
With the World Cup coming up, Crouch will no doubt want to cement his place on the plane and that will require first team appearances. With Pavlyuchenko not going to South Africa, Harry might decide to give Crouch the go-ahead. He’s bound to get some minutes on the pitch over the course of the two games.
Predicted Return: 1 assist
Roman Pavlyuchenko
After a brief, meteoric burst of form, Pavlyuchenko has slowed down and hasn’t scored since the FA Cup game with Fulham and not in the Premier League since 13th March, six games ago. He did score twice in the 4-0 win over Bolton earlier in the season, and that might be enough to give him the nod this time round.
Defoe is rightly considered quite a selfish player, but what about the other two Tottenham forwards? To determine whether or not a player is selfish, I’m going to show the ratio of shots to assist attempts to find out whether a player prefers to pass or shoot in front of goal:
Pavlyuchenko: 3.4 shots per assist attempt
Defoe: 2.96 shots per assist attempt
Crouch: 1.79 shots per assist attempt
You might not want to play in the same team as him, but as a fantasy manager, Pavlyuchenko may well be the best option in the Tottenham attack.
Predicted Return: 1 goal