It doesn’t get much better than a late season gameweek that features head-to-head games involving the three teams seeking to grab Liverpool’s spot in the top four.  It is the functional equivalent of single-game elimination playoffs as each loss may dent, if not end, European dreams.  Smack in the middle of all of the excitement is the feature team for this double gameweek analysis, Manchester City…

The Opponents
City starts the week with Aston Villa at home.  To say that Villa has packed it in on the road is an understatement.  Villa has 16 clean sheets on the season, with 10 of them coming from their 18 away games.  In those 18 away games, Villa has conceded 19 goals (1.06 per game), an impressive tally to begin with but absolutely outstanding if you take out the aberrational seven goals scored by Chelsea (12 goals in 17 games, or 0.71 per game).  Conventional wisdom as reflected by the “transfers in” leaderboard reflects strong investment in City attackers with a quintet to select from who have exceeded 10,000 transfers.  But assuming that City will score freely, if at all, against Villa is a mistake.  The first meeting between the squads ended 1-1; there is little reason to believe that more goals will be scored in this one.

Tottenham then comes to Eastlands five days later.  If both squads have won on Saturday, this one could be for all the marbles.  In contrast to Aston Villa, Tottenham have just 11 clean sheets on the season, with only three of them coming in away games.  Tottenham’s decent run of defensive form actually started with a clean sheet at home over City in mid-December, and it has since been at home that Tottenham has been quasi-impenetrable.  Road games have been different, and Tottenham has conceded 24 goals in 17 away games (1.41 per game).  Most recently, they fetched three out of their own net in the last two away outings against Manchester United and Sunderland. Tottenham won the first meeting with City, 3-0.  A final score of 2-1 feels most likely, but this one at least presents a possible scenario for a City goalfest.

Current Form
City has three wins, a draw, and a loss in their last five games and five wins, three draws, and two losses in their last ten games.  From an attacking perspective during these last ten matches, City has been more Jekyll and Hyde than I had realized, scoring three or more goals in four games while not scoring at all in four others.  On the defensive side, City has only three clean sheets to show for the last ten games.  On the other hand, they have only conceded two goals in two of the ten fixtures (and never more than two goals).  At Eastlands, City has four clean sheets in their last seven home games, allowing a total of four goals during that stretch.

Unfortunately, it is difficult to make much, if anything, of the form analysis.  City has largely disposed of the lower-placed teams (including that recent three-game stretch where they scored 14 goals) and just played two tight, low-scoring affairs with Manchester United and Arsenal in the last two matches.

The Rotation Risk
The pressure on City at this point must be enormous.  Given the staggering amount of money spent on transfers and wages, it will be a failure to be in this position and not close it out.  And, separate from perhaps justifying the past spending spree, City has to be thinking that securing top-level European football is a necessary carrot to add to the bags of money that they intend to place in front of a megastar or two this coming summer.  Obviously, City has no monopoly on a desire to finish fourth, and Tottenham and Villa face similar motivations and pressures to win these final games.  The question for our fantasy purposes is how each may react tactically.  Regrettably for those hoping for goals, goals and then more goals, the scores from the past two weeks suggest that City has become more tentative and deliberate in their tactics against the top competition.

City’s tactics may additionally be influenced by Shay Given’s season-ending injury.  I was reminded of the American television show in the late ‘70s called “Eight Is Enough.”  Well, City had nine goalies, and it wasn’t.  So, they’ve now got 10 goalies, with the league’s reprieve allowing City to acquire Sunderland’s Martin Fulop.  Whether the 10th will be “enough” remains to be seen.  Assuming that he steps straight in, Fulop is unlikely to match Given save for save, but it is yet another strategic wildcard as to whether City may play more cautiously without Given between the sticks.  If so, this wouldn’t be the first time that the end result of playing a weaker keeper is a better defensive performance (and in turn a weaker offensive one).

An alternate theory to all of this doom and gloom of low-scoring matches is the reality that all of the chalkboards, pregames, and triangular diagrams may go the way of the dinosaurs if someone gets a goal or two early.  The lose-and-you’re-out nature of these games may force some needed desperation, creating opportunities at both ends.

Potential Targets

Wayne Bridge
An unconventional selection, the early word is that Bridge has recovered from the “dead leg” that forced his early departure from last week’s game (insert joke here about John Terry using “Bridge” and “dead leg” in a pick up line).  Subject to updates on his status, Bridge should be a lock to play every minute if he’s healthy.  I’m not sure who ends up on the winning end, but the Aston Villa game has 1-0 written all over it.  Two potentially tight games and Bridge’s attacking jaunts down the flank make his selection less crazy than I initially thought.
Predicted Return – 1 clean sheet.

Adam Johnson
Johnson’s immediate emergence in the City midfield has been refreshing.  Johnson has one goal and five assists from his 13 games since joining the team earlier this year, which amounts to 4.3 fantasy points per game (3.7 per home game).  But, there remains some skepticism and the fact remains that his points have only against weaker squads.  At a price of 6.2, Johnson edged out the more expensive Gareth Barry in any event, but recent news that Barry may miss out on the pivotal match with his former squad leaves Johnson as the only viable option in the City midfield.
Predicted Return – 1 assist.

Carlos Tevez
Tevez started the season with concern about his playing time, but has seized the opportunity and made the most of it.  Tevez has 22 goals and 7 assists for the season, and an average of 6.2 points per game (7.4 per home game).  Tevez has been slightly less consistent than Adebayor in that Tevez has failed to score in 15 of 32 games, but his strike rate has been more than satisfactory.  In addition, Tevez has more than made up for the additional 2-pointer with the so-called monster game (Tevez has scored double digits on 8 occasions).  At a price of 9.7 to Adebayor’s 9.6, Tevez is an easy first choice selection given that he is on spot kick duty.
Predicted Return – 1 goal, 1 assist, 3 bonus points.

Emmanuel Adebayor
Adebayor has been labeled a doubt for the Villa game with a thigh injury although unofficial reports suggest that he trained on Thursday and looks set to be in contention.  There is certainly some ambiguity in the articles I’ve seen as to the seriousness of the injury, and if there is a possibility that he still plays Saturday, he seems at least likely to get the Tottenham game in the worst case.

Craig Bellamy would be the other option at a bargain price of 7.7, but I’m still drawn to Adebayor, who has been extremely consistent on the season.  He has scored at least one goal or assist in 14 of the 23 games in which he has played, and has never gone more than three games in a row without scoring.  Continue to monitor the injury news, but if you’re prepared to double up on City forwards or if you’re looking for a differential to Tevez, all indications are that Adebayor can be relied upon.
Predicted Return – 1 goals, 2 bonus points.

A Final Random Musing
A check of the transfer statistics showed 2200 people who, despite the bright red box next to his name, had mistakenly transferred in the injured Michael Johnson during this gameweek.  Entertaining as that was, the transfers out total 2195.  At least for the moment, there are five people who either don’t realize what they did or are stubbornly refusing to take a point-hit to correct it.  Anyone willing to ‘fess up?