[sbu_large_image] Injuries
12 February 2011 651 comments
Mark Mark
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With the Gameweek and Wildcard deadline approaching at pace, it’s time to chew the fat with Paddy Power to see if his odds can sway our thinking when it comes to last minute tinkering.

Complete with some double Gameweek specials, a United vs City preview and a tempting Money Back Special on the early kick-off at Old Trafford, here’s this week’s Paddy rundown…

Who Will Keep a Clean Sheet?

  • Arsenal 1.83 (WOL) dgw
  • Liverpool 1.83 (WIG)
  • Chelsea 2.25 (ful)
  • Man United 2.37 (MCY)
  • Blackburn 2.75 (NEW)
  • Birmingham 2.80 (STK) dgw
  • West Brom 3.00 (WHM) dgw
  • Stoke 3.10 (bir)

Even off the back of a home win against league leaders Man United, Wolves are fancied to draw blood against Arsenal this weekend. A poor average of 0.75gsa (goals scored away) this campaign agrees with Paddy’s prediction, however Arsenal’s defence at the Emirates has been prone to a lapse and, if Arsene Wenger rests Johan Djourou for the midweek clash with Barcelona, the home cleanie looks less secure. The smart money says that the Gunners will hold their nerve after being on the receiving end of Newcastle’s record-breaking comeback and if Djourou starts, they look well placed for a fifth shut-out in six league matches.

Liverpool are tied at the top of Paddy’s odds and sport an impressive run of form at the back, with a healthy 0.77gch (goals conceded at home) to boot. Opponents Wigan appear to pose little threat with a mere 0.83gsa and, despite their goal glut in the win over Blackburn. Liverpool meanwhile have amassed four cleensheets in a row, the most recent of which came at Stamford Bridge. Paddy’s odds look pretty sound then, with Martin Kelly (if fit) set to continue to as a strong budget option at the back.

Chelsea and league leaders Man United feature next, both a shade over even money, both facing stern competition. On the road, Chelsea have only attained 3 cleansheets, in comparison to their 8 at home, and face a Fulham side seeming increasingly settled under manager Mark Hughes. This one looks shaky to us – Mark even tipped a home win on the ScoutCast this week. While I’m not sure about that, Chelsea’s cleanie does look vulnerable.

Man City travel down the road to Old Trafford for the second Manchester Derby of the season in the early kick-off. The first clash was a drab affair, offering little for the neutrals. Will we get the same again? Rio Ferdinand’s absence at the back for United will provide City with a few more chinks of light and significantly Paddy’s odds lengthened from 2.20 to 2.37 overnight – perhaps a low-scoring draw is the most likely outcome here.

Anytime Goalscorer

  • R Van Persie 1.44 (WOL) dgw
  • L Suarez 1.72 (WIG)
  • D Bent 1.83 (blp)
  • M Chamakh 1.90 (WOL) dgw
  • C Fabregas 2.00 (WOL) dgw
  • A Arshavin 2.00 (WOL) dgw
  • N Bendtner 2.00 (WOL) dgw
  • D Kuyt 2.25 (WIG)
  • D N’Gog 2.25 (WIG)
  • P Odemwingie 2.30 (WHM) dgw
  • F Torres 2.30 (ful)
  • D Drogba 2.30 (ful)
  • T Walcott 2.40 (WOL) dgw
  • W Rooney 2.37 (MCY)
  • D Berbatov 2.37 (MCY)
  • C Vela 2.50 (WHM) dgw
  • DJ Campbell 2.50 (AVL) dgw
  • J Defoe 2.50 (sun) dgw

Robin Van Persie has established himself as the most consistent form striker in the league and it’s no surprise to see him topping the Anytime Goalscorer market this week. Netting 7 goals in his last 4 games and featuring twice in this Gameweek (hopefully),Van Persie has been the hot property this week and will be sporting the armband for thousands against Wolves later today. Paddy’s price here – 1.44 is the shortest they’ve gone for any striker in any game this season. The planets seem to be aligning for Van Persie.

Liverpool’s new hitman Luis Suarez is favoured by Paddy’s odds this week, coming in second in the market. The Uruguayan will be eager to make his mark again following his debut goal and Wigan’s away record of 1.5gca (goals conceded away) should grant him every opportunity if Dalglish throws him in from the start at Anfield.

Steady scorer Darren Bent has been welcomed by Aston Villa faithful, already helping take the scalp of Man City and finding a consolation at Man United. His FPL price of 8.8m looks a bit much for a striker without the lure of a double fixture but Bent certainly looks a handy differential and Paddy rate him this weekend.

Significantly Arsenal are so strongly backed for goals against Wolves, they offer four attacking players with Cesc Fabregas’ odds looking particularly short considering he has yet to catch fire since his return from injury.

Peter Odemwingie once again sits above big guns like Torres, Drogba and Rooney, a sight that is becoming more and more familiar. With Roy Hodgson newly installed at the Hawthorns helm, the Nigerian shouldn’t struggle to find the motivation here and will be expected to improve on his 9-goal season haul. With the Baggies playing both West Ham and Wolves at home in the Gameweek, Fantasy investors will be hoping and expecting for at least a 2 goal return.

Paddy’s United vs City Preview

This afternoon derby promises to be more competitive than it has been for quite some time but from a neutral’s point of view, the biggest concern is that we’ll be served up another turgid display between two sides who have only really managed only a handful of truly convincing performances between them this season.

The way Roberto Mancini has set his teams out against his title rivals doesn’t bode well and another 0-0 draw at 8/1 is a distinct possibility. City have scored just once in five games against United, Spurs, Chelsea and Arsenal, with three of those five games ending 0-0. It’s clear that when the pressure is on the Italian reverts to type and focuses firmly on avoiding defeat. A fifth shut-out against a title rival in this game is 7/2 if you fancy them to hold firm.

Rio Ferdinand, though perhaps over-rated, does form a reliable partnership with Vidic and when he’s been absent from the team this season, Ferguson has struggled to find a satisfactory replacement from his underwhelming list of options. With the addition of Dzeko and the improvement of David Silva, City have been more potent going forward or late and for all his off-field attitude problems, once he’s on the pitch Carlos Tevez has been excellent this season. He may feel he has a point to prove, especially if the home fans get on his back, and he’s well priced at 6/1 to score first and 15/8 to score anytime. He certainly looks better value than the sporadic Berbatov and the not-quite-back-to-his-best Rooney, both of whom are 9/2 to open the scoring.

For all the previous United bashing their record at home is near perfect, which is more of a testament to the manager’s ability to instil belief in his players than it is to the general standard of their play. That record is the reason why the home side are odds on at 4/5 but with Ferdinand gone and their unbeaten run ended, the draw at 12/5 and City to win at 15/4 both provide better value.

Paddy’s Money Back Special…

The Money Back Special is a “Feast or Famine” offer for the early kick-off at Old Trafford. If this game finishes scoreless or it has more than four goals, Paddy Power will refund all losing 1st /last goalscorer, correct score and scorecast singles on the match.

Click here for this and other Paddy odds…

Paddy’s Scout Specials

We’ve had a host of specials from Paddy running this week, all tying in with our double Gameweek selections.

Peter Odemwingie to score 3 or more goals in the Gameweek 7/1 (8.00)

Charlie Adam to score 2 or more goals in the Gameweek 6/1 (7.00)

Arsenal to keep two clean sheets in the Gameweek 5/2 (3.50)

Cesc Fabregas to score 2 or more goals in total in the Gameweek 6/4 (2.50)

Robin Van Persie to score 3 or more goals in total in the Gameweek 13/8 (2.62)

Robert Huth to score a header against Arsenal 16/1 (17.00)

Bet Β£10 Get Β£20

If you’re new to this betting lark and new to Paddy Power then you can take up any of these odds and offers and get yourself a bonus. You can sign up via this site and get a free Β£20 when you register and bet a tenner.

Finally of course, we should state that all these offers are only available to those aged 18 and over and are subject to Paddy Power’s terms and conditions.

Mark Mark created the beast. He's now looking to tame it.

651 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. njfsdkffslkf
    • 16 Years
    15 years, 2 months ago

    Gargamel wont be happy. Played Berbatov over Tevez, and Nani.

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    1. The Pooer
        15 years, 2 months ago

        Gargamel can do one.

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    2. Drip Doctor
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      15 years, 2 months ago

      Come on City!! I'm still baffled as to why i played Nani over Kola and Tevez, i don't want to be secretly happy if he scores or assists.

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      1. jamsiep
        • 16 Years
        15 years, 2 months ago

        Why? City aren't going to score. They've scored 1 goal against top 5 opposition all season, and that was Tevez's flukey goal against Chelsea.

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        1. Locarno
          • 15 Years
          15 years, 2 months ago

          Are Chelsea still top-5 opposition?

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          1. dave_the_bear
            • 16 Years
            15 years, 2 months ago

            Knob

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      2. Viper
        • 16 Years
        15 years, 2 months ago

        Same with me! I want Tevez to destroy united but benched him for Nani.. Kolarov left wing, sorry i didn't play him!

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      3. si
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        15 years, 2 months ago

        I think everyone is over-reacting a bit here. United always score at home regardless of formation. Fergie knows what he is doing. By resting Berb does not mean City wil win 4-0 with Kolarov assisting Tevez for each goal!

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        1. Drip Doctor
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 15 Years
          15 years, 2 months ago

          I just mean because it's weird watching a game where you want Utd to lose, but don't want Tevez or Kolarov to do anything.

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          1. Viper
            • 16 Years
            15 years, 2 months ago

            +1

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    3. Viper
      • 16 Years
      15 years, 2 months ago

      Kolarov left wing again, looks well for the coming Gwks but slightly sickened i benched him this week now though..

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    4. si
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      15 years, 2 months ago

      A little blog to spice up the big match, chaps. Feel free to vote on the poll too. cheers!

      http://elmasqueunblog.blogspot.com/

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      1. Attila the Bum
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        15 years, 2 months ago

        Nice. Interesting question for the poll that. Toughie.

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      2. applebonkers
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 16 Years
        15 years, 2 months ago

        83p.. and what!

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        1. Attila the Bum
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 15 Years
          15 years, 2 months ago

          How do you get the ranking thingy?

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          1. applebonkers
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 16 Years
            15 years, 2 months ago

            this site used that comment system for a bit last season. inherited it from there

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          2. si
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 16 Years
            15 years, 2 months ago

            Its a bit naff at the moment as it is based on number of posts + any thumbs up - thumbs down. We are hoping to set something up in the future where everyone accumulates a rating just on thumbs up/down then have a comment of the day highlighted.

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            1. Attila the Bum
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 15 Years
              15 years, 2 months ago

              Oh sounds good. I knew Bonkers had to be cheating somehow, 83 bloody points!
              πŸ˜‰

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        2. jamsiep
          • 16 Years
          15 years, 2 months ago

          I honestly think that no one could see any of the posts I tried to make when the site was using IntenseDebate... No one was ever replying! and I don't have any points from the time..

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          1. si
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 16 Years
            15 years, 2 months ago

            You were probably just banging on about Ballack and being ignored πŸ˜‰

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            1. jamsiep
              • 16 Years
              15 years, 2 months ago

              or that... πŸ˜€

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    5. Duckbill
      • 16 Years
      15 years, 2 months ago

      How many dgw players have you guys got for metro game?

      i got 8 just feel i could have done with one more.

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    6. matiakez
      • 15 Years
      15 years, 2 months ago

      I'm expecting Tevez, Kolorov and Nani to all do wonders here with everyone seemingly have benched a collection of the three..

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    7. gatzi
      • 15 Years
      15 years, 2 months ago

      Anyone play that Player Manager game?

      I decided to play, looks good. Added my credits, picked my squad (took me forever), entered my team and now it says I didn't enter this GW....? What's going on?

      I entered at like 11am and checked to make sure the credits had been taken from my account and that my team was entered. WTF?

      Anyone know why?

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      1. gatzi
        • 15 Years
        15 years, 2 months ago

        Ignore

        Found this: Solo game: entry fee refund: no more available leagues

        what a pile of crap !!! πŸ˜›

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    8. FinnHarpsFizz
      • 15 Years
      15 years, 2 months ago

      iys so annoying the way stulupid people on this , keep asking for advice ehhh "foster or gordon, vdv or cahill" or watever, seriously just piss of and do ur own decisions

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      1. Akers
        • 16 Years
        15 years, 2 months ago

        "stulupid people"

        lol

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        1. Viper
          • 16 Years
          15 years, 2 months ago

          πŸ˜†

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      2. themec
        • 16 Years
        15 years, 2 months ago

        Good one.

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      3. Attila the Bum
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        15 years, 2 months ago

        πŸ˜† Nice

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    9. Akers
      • 16 Years
      15 years, 2 months ago

      Disappointing effort from Yorkie this week on the shirt front.

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    10. michaelington
      • 16 Years
      15 years, 2 months ago

      great, nani first sub and no rafael, awful start to this gw

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      1. gatzi
        • 15 Years
        15 years, 2 months ago

        What if your other players do amazing?

        Little bit early......

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        1. michaelington
          • 16 Years
          15 years, 2 months ago

          yeah your right, at least I can cheer on tevez now, cmon city!

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    11. Mak_Gold
        15 years, 2 months ago

        Guys,play Coleman or Mummy in the Facebook game?

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      • Aidy
        • 16 Years
        15 years, 2 months ago

        Today's sweaty bets

        Man U v City Draw
        Bir v Stoke Draw
        Liverpool

        £20 = £282
        _____

        Westham
        Villa

        £40 = £312

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      • PFOR
        • 15 Years
        15 years, 2 months ago

        I have a sneaky fiver on Munich, Madrid, Barcelona, Sunderland, Villa, Liverpool, and Arsenal to win.

        120 euro returns.

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      • Neddy55
        • 16 Years
        15 years, 2 months ago

        No berba. Rooney alone.

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        1. Jermaine Chigurh
          • 15 Years
          15 years, 2 months ago

          Man U are playing a counter-attacking side aginst a team that don't plan to attack.

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      • Romford Pele - Don't w…
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        15 years, 2 months ago

        site back up

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      • DGno9
        • 15 Years
        15 years, 2 months ago

        so then...who's midfield's gonna dominate this afternoon? United's 5 or city's 5?

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      • disparate dan - a reasonabl…
        • 15 Years
        15 years, 2 months ago

        can i just thank damo fitz and back on the horse

        your post earlier about man u possibly not having a double was enough for me to take berba out IN THE LAST MINUTE for odem

        and now berba benched

        cheers!!

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        1. Damo.
          • 16 Years
          15 years, 2 months ago

          C'mon the pool!

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      • jamsiep
        • 16 Years
        15 years, 2 months ago

        lol, my brother has Zigic.

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        1. Back on the horse
          • 15 Years
          15 years, 2 months ago

          he'll prob nail it, knowing his luck

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      • MTPockets
          15 years, 2 months ago

          Need to finally replace stockdale as foster not playing next week. Any opinion about best rotation with him, or does anyone recall the link to that spreadsheet on keeper rotations from a while back? Ta

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        • Viper
          • 16 Years
          15 years, 2 months ago

          Man U/City - Draw HT/FT, Arsenal HT/FT, Liverpool HT/FT, bayern to win..
          €5 returns €102.. worth running to the bookies to do?

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          1. Viper
            • 16 Years
            15 years, 2 months ago

            If you throw Birmingham/stoke draw in to that it becomes €386 returns..

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          2. Jermaine Chigurh
            • 15 Years
            15 years, 2 months ago

            not Bayern, they've been a real disapointment this season.

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        • Fray Bentos
          • 16 Years
          15 years, 2 months ago

          damn should've played kolerov instead of tevez. 0-0 written all over it

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          1. Viper
            • 16 Years
            15 years, 2 months ago

            Same here! I benched both, should of played him instead of nani

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        • Attila the Bum
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 15 Years
          15 years, 2 months ago

          Really hope RVP does sweet FA, everyone vying for the top of my minileague has him (c). Pissed off that the leader has got in Fabregas this week though, he was my sneaky uber differential on them all. πŸ˜•

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        • Locarno
          • 15 Years
          15 years, 2 months ago

          The guy who's second in my mini-league has nine players the same and we both captained RVP.

          Differential is Odemwingie and Carew (me) versus Walcott and Tevez.

          Great - that means I'm cheering for United.

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          1. Attila the Bum
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 15 Years
            15 years, 2 months ago

            Wow your subconscious finally gets its day in the sun eh? πŸ˜‰

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            1. Locarno
              • 15 Years
              15 years, 2 months ago

              *that means I'm cheering for United (until Tevez is substituted)

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        • denial
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 16 Years
          15 years, 2 months ago

          I really thought Fergie would play Berbs today and have a bloody good go at them. What a drunken old sod he is.

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          1. Fray Bentos
            • 16 Years
            15 years, 2 months ago

            must be afraid of them

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        • Retro
          • 15 Years
          15 years, 2 months ago

          This just goes to show that the folk who made loads of points from Berbatov were purely and outrageously lucky that he played twice!!

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          1. andy85wsm
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 15 Years
            15 years, 2 months ago

            no

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        • David Davros
          • 16 Years
          15 years, 2 months ago

          Everyone is so sure City are gonna sit back and play for a 0-0.

          I think they might come out guns blazing for this one.

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        • dave_the_bear
          • 16 Years
          15 years, 2 months ago

          H2H opponent used WC and has 9 double GW players...silly really with the GW28 blank but I have a feeling I'm about to get battered πŸ˜›

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        • cruyff81
          • 16 Years
          15 years, 2 months ago

          What do ye think of the Manchester Marvels XI on Sky,Georgie Best didnt make the team

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          1. Damo.
            • 16 Years
            15 years, 2 months ago

            He was too p!ssed to make the bus

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          2. dave_the_bear
            • 16 Years
            15 years, 2 months ago

            Don't see why he would have made it.
            Giggs gets the spot for his sheer professionalism alone.

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        • Pratik
          • 16 Years
          15 years, 2 months ago

          1st wildcard used. Now wondering when will i get to use my 2nd one?

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          1. Aidy
            • 16 Years
            15 years, 2 months ago

            I just used my second, hoping to gain a bit on the 2 above me in the random leagues. Perhaps around game week 32, when the canceled fixtures from the fa cup start to arise.

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        • Fudge
          • 15 Years
          15 years, 2 months ago

          Everyone and their dog has captained RVP!

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          1. Locarno
            • 15 Years
            15 years, 2 months ago

            I had Brunt, but bottled it at the last minute. Top seven players in my mini-league have all captained the Dutchman.

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          2. Aidy
            • 16 Years
            15 years, 2 months ago

            My dog opted for Cesc, he will play both games, will RVP?

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