Using a concept of assessing how many points a player can get per million of their Fantasy Premier League (FPL) price I have been able to produce prices that reflect a player’s worth from the previous season.
Player Value Explained
This is done by dividing the player’s points total by a number. This number is obtained using the following calculation:
Overall Points Total / Ending Team Value
Basically, you take your total score from last season and divide it by your team value. This will be different for everyone, and for competitive players ranges from between 20-21. For ease, I have used the number 20, as it gives a less complicated figure.
Take this number 20 and use it in a calculation like so:
Player’s Total Points / 20
So, lets take Rooney for example. He scored 190 points last season, so:
190 / 20 = 9.5
Using this calculation, you find that Rooney is worth 9.5M in terms of the points he scored last season, compared to the points you require to achieve for a high finish.
His net price would be this figure divided by his price this season, so
9.5 – 10.5 = -1.0
A full table with all the calculations can be found here:
Please note, the scores here are based on what you would expect for a top 100k finish, and so the prices are not very close to the actual prices. For this reason, it is easier to view the best priced players. A more accurate price comparison is at the bottom of this post. This uses the average FPL score to determine how players are priced, and the prices I got are extremely close to the FPL prices.
In each position, here are the ‘best and worst priced’ players, according to how they have been priced, and their ‘true’ price value:
Best – Howard (2.5) Szczesny (2.35) Mannone and Speroni (2.2 each)
Worst – Friedel (-4.85) Robles (-4.75) Fabianski (-4.65)
Best – Terry (2.1) Coleman (2.0) Fonte (1.95) Mertesacker (1.85)
Worst – Clichy (-2.15) Flanagan and Chiriches (-1.55 each) Ried and Bardsley (1.45 each)
Best – Gerrard (1.25) Yaya Toure (1.05) Sidwell (0.8) Noble (0.75)
Worst – Mata (-2.8) Schurrle (-2.35) Coutinho (-2.3) Ozil (-2.15) Cazorla (-2.1)
Best – Lambert (1.45) Giroud (0.85) Rodriguez (0.1)
Worst – Van Persie (-6.9) Aguero (-4.2) Negredo (-3.55)
I am aware with the flaws in this, such as game time, and the fact that players like Van Persie will not drop by, say, more than 2.0 from each season. However, it does give an idea of which players are good value, or a bargain; players who have been supposedly priced incorrectly.
There are some surprises in there. This is because of the data used (top 100k data). So, for a more accurate result, use the spreadsheet below.
I have to say that these numbers are not accurate in relation to the FPL prices. This is because the number I used to divide by was based on a top 100k score. Because of this, the scores have been more cruel to players, as if we are aiming for a high finish, we need to pick the best, and best value, players.
I have made an alternate spreadsheet where the scores I calculated are more similar to those FPL priced them by. This is because I used the number 18 to divide by, which is about the average ‘points per million’ score among the whole FPL community.
I did not use this score, as I wanted to have bigger gaps between the scores so that they were easier to differentiate, and because they apply more to the audience on here. If you would like to use the more accurate spreadsheet to view how players should have been priced, it is avalaible here.
I hope you enjoy these, and put them to good use!