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The True Value of Players

Using a concept of assessing how many points a player can get per million of their Fantasy Premier League (FPL) price I have been able to produce prices that reflect a player’s worth from the previous season.

Player Value Explained

This is done by dividing the player’s points total by a number. This number is obtained using the following calculation:

Overall Points Total / Ending Team Value

Basically, you take your total score from last season and divide it by your team value. This will be different for everyone, and for competitive players ranges from between 20-21. For ease, I have used the number 20, as it gives a less complicated figure.

Take this number 20 and use it in a calculation like so:

Player’s Total Points / 20

So, lets take Rooney for example. He scored 190 points last season, so:

190 / 20 = 9.5

Using this calculation, you find that Rooney is worth 9.5M in terms of the points he scored last season, compared to the points you require to achieve for a high finish.

His net price would be this figure divided by his price this season, so

9.5 – 10.5 = -1.0

A full table with all the calculations can be found here:

Please note, the scores here are based on what you would expect for a top 100k finish, and so the prices are not very close to the actual prices. For this reason, it is easier to view the best priced players. A more accurate price comparison is at the bottom of this post. This uses the average FPL score to determine how players are priced, and the prices I got are extremely close to the FPL prices.

Results

In each position, here are the ‘best and worst priced’ players, according to how they have been priced, and their ‘true’ price value:

Goalkeepers

Best – Howard (2.5) Szczesny (2.35) Mannone and Speroni (2.2 each)
Worst – Friedel (-4.85) Robles (-4.75) Fabianski (-4.65)

Defenders

Best – Terry (2.1) Coleman (2.0) Fonte (1.95) Mertesacker (1.85)
Worst – Clichy (-2.15) Flanagan and Chiriches (-1.55 each) Ried and Bardsley (1.45 each)

Midfielders

Best – Gerrard (1.25) Yaya Toure (1.05) Sidwell (0.8) Noble (0.75)
Worst – Mata (-2.8) Schurrle (-2.35) Coutinho (-2.3) Ozil (-2.15) Cazorla (-2.1)

Forwards

Best – Lambert (1.45) Giroud (0.85) Rodriguez (0.1)
Worst – Van Persie (-6.9) Aguero (-4.2) Negredo (-3.55)

Conclusions

I am aware with the flaws in this, such as game time, and the fact that players like Van Persie will not drop by, say, more than 2.0 from each season. However, it does give an idea of which players are good value, or a bargain; players who have been supposedly priced incorrectly.

There are some surprises in there. This is because of the data used (top 100k data). So, for a more accurate result, use the spreadsheet below.

I have to say that these numbers are not accurate in relation to the FPL prices. This is because the number I used to divide by was based on a top 100k score. Because of this, the scores have been more cruel to players, as if we are aiming for a high finish, we need to pick the best, and best value, players.

I have made an alternate spreadsheet where the scores I calculated are more similar to those FPL priced them by. This is because I used the number 18 to divide by, which is about the average ‘points per million’ score among the whole FPL community.

I did not use this score, as I wanted to have bigger gaps between the scores so that they were easier to differentiate, and because they apply more to the audience on here. If you would like to use the more accurate spreadsheet to view how players should have been priced, it is avalaible here.

I hope you enjoy these, and put them to good use!

Rödallegabomb ᴿᴮ Captain of Team Brazil for the 2015 FIFFSA world cup. Dale a tu cuerpo alegria Macarena; Que tu cuerpo es pa' darle alegria cosa buena; Dale a tu cuerpo alegria, Macarena; Hey Macarena! (Ay!)” Follow him on Twitter

20 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Hazard for Ballon D'or
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Thanks rodallega

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  2. markleslieZA
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Hi guys, please RMT:

    Mannone Pantilimon
    Coloccini Chester Hutton Moore Duff
    Hazard Fabregas Sterling Ramsey Mata
    Rooney Dzeko Bojan

    Be brutal please...

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  3. Kerrazy
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    http://imgur.com/K77N5TU

    my only concern is lack of Arsenal forward. what do you think ?

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  4. Mohamed Fatheen
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    anybody knows who will start in stoke defense??

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  5. TheFantasyFreÆK ⭐
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Great work...Thanks RB 🙂

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  6. WafuCafu
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Points per million is a great measure. To finish well, you need around 2200 to 2400 points at the end, which requires your players to yield 22 to 24 points per million. Very close to your 20-21 points figure.

    Realistically, it's impossible to get all your players on this rate of form. Especially the pricey strikers who need to hit above 250 to justify their value. However, bear in mind that these players also get to double their points as they are often captains.

    Using the starting price of last year instead of this year would be a fairer way to assess their potential. Using last year price, players like Ramsey and Coleman were yielding 27 points per million last year which is why they were the so called essentials.

    But since the prices are adjusted, this year's Ramsey and Coleman won't be them. To see who is going to be essential, just multiply the price of the player by 20+ and if you think that player will reach that figure, go for them!!!

    Great article.

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    1. Lazarus Star
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Agree. It would be good to get the FPL calculations for setting new season prices of players which would be based on past and predicted performance, individually and the team they are in.

      I would also look to incorporate minutes played as injury or suspension can be a significant factor. RVP and Suarez are perfect examples.

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  7. WafuCafu
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    I did further analysis myself on this topic and found out more trends.

    Average top 20 Strikers points per million = 16.89
    Average top 20 Midfielders points per million = 19.11
    Average top 20 defenders points per million = 23.20

    This tells us that defenders are gems in terms of value, although this doesn't mean cheap or premium defenders. Coleman and Fonte yielded the highest with 27 points per million.

    Strikers have lower rate because they play less minutes and their form is up and down but in a certain period of time, they become untouchables. Luis Suarez averaged 32.78 from week 6 to 17.

    Conclusion

    I would say if your team value is lower than others, try to squeeze as much from defense.

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  8. tm245
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Thanks for writing this. I think this is an interesting idea -- the writer here is doing some really counterintuitive thinking but it is not quite VORP.

    From Baseball Prospectus, the site that launched Nate Silver -- the current pop cultural stats Buddha here in America -- here is a definition:

    "Value Over Replacement Player. The number of runs contributed* beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances."

    *This would be amended for FPL to points scored. Wikipedia also offers a nice overview and really focuses on marginal utility in subsequent paragraphs:

    "In baseball, value over replacement player (or VORP) is a statistic ... that demonstrates how much a hitter contributes offensively or how much a pitcher contributes to his team in comparison to a fictitious "replacement player,"who is an average fielder at his position and a below average hitter.[1][2] A replacement player performs at "replacement level," which is the level of performance an average team can expect when trying to replace a player at minimal cost, also known as "freely available talent.""

    I think that last phrase is crucial to FPL as you would need to look not just at the minimum score to be expected from an uber defender or a cheapo 4.5m def midfielder as your baseline replacement but at the highest scoring player not owned, since he would be the best player. TSB%, total budget and pts per appearance all need to be factored into it.

    Measuring Raheem Sterling's VORP needs to compare him to his most likely replacement, like Samir Nasri or Christian Eriksen (or even Daniel Sturridge), as well as to the minimal option like Joe Allen (sorry, but the FPL truth hurts).

    The idea of looking at total FPL points as a pool from which a player draws is an intriguing one, though not necessarily the way the term VORP is used in baseball stats.

    I am probably posting to myself at this point but I would highly recommend looking at the website fangraphs.com if you are interested in some of the coolest sports statistical conversations happening over on this side of the Atlantic. It is obviously heavy on baseball jargon but its community has a similar impact on raising the level of discussion that writers like Rodallegabomb are doing for FFS. Cheers.

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    1. Rödallegabomb ᴿᴮ
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      The irony here is, look at my other article posted today. It is about VORP.

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      1. tm245
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Wow. Massive reply failure on my part. Saw the Scout tweets saying there was a new article on VORP and thought it was this one! Will try to find the other one now. Cheers for all your hard work.

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  9. Headless
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Thanks for that Rodellegabomb. Most useful.

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  10. Ad4m
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Nice work and worth consideration. I guess the one thing this aggregation misses is predictability. It assumes that the players total score is bankable in a team formation whereas we all know that some of the players you highlight e.g Lambert or Rodriguez having been sitting on the bench when getting a points haul.

    Thanks

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  11. Kalix
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Very interesting results there!

    Good work!

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  12. Lazarus Star
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Good post RB.

    Could you factor "minutes played" into the calculatons so you can see value over Price/Points/Minutes played?

    This way you can see the value of a player based on how many minutes they have played. Then you can figure out if the number of minutes actually played justifies a consideration.

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  13. TheBlackMamba
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    quick question:

    Ashley Young or Jordan Henderson??

    Cheers!

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  14. V04
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    RMT pleaaase...

    Krul-Foster
    Cahill-Chester-Moore-Jones-Bartley/Duff/Wisdom
    Hendo-Mata-Sanchez-Hazard-El Ahmadi/4,5m
    Rooney-Costa-Bojan

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    1. Latvietis
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      looks good to me...

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  15. Latvietis
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    So now that Speroni and Ward are out for me...

    Who rotates best with Stoke in terms of keepers and defense??

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  16. greenmachine
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Rodwell, Sidwell or Noble........ between these 3 for my final midfield pick on the Telegraph FF

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