Gameweek 12 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) will go down as one of ‘those’ weeks. You know the type. Where everything makes sense on paper, you feel great about your move, but then the game reminds you that it doesn’t care.
This week, we saw three massive, collective decisions made by the FPL community.
Firstly, moving the injured Gabriel Magalhaes (£6.4m) to Virgil van Dijk (£6.0m). An excellent fixture run for the most-nailed starter among Liverpool’s festive chaos, who offers an occasional attacking threat and defensive contribution (DefCon) rewards.
Yes, this would be the moment where the champions finally tighten up. Oh, right. They conceded three times to Nottingham Forest.
Secondly, the captaining of Erling Haaland (£14.9m). If there was ever a week to take on the Norwegian, this was supposed to be it. But the majority stayed with him anyway because he’s on fire, Manchester City goals are inevitable, the striker is chasing a personal milestone and opponents Newcastle United were leaking goals.
Nobody wanted to look stupid by ignoring all this and watching a hat-trick in horror. Of course, he blanked.
Thirdly, the purchase of Bryan Mbeumo (£8.6m). Suddenly, managers must own a Manchester United midfielder, either him or Bruno Fernandes (£8.9m). Preferably both, even for a hit.
Their team is finding form, Everton look shaky, plus there’s some tasty fixtures afterwards. That’s why Mbeumo became the Gameweek’s most bought player. But he blanked, too.
Is a popular choice always the correct one?
So when it comes to the million-dollar question above, the answer is no. And also yes. For me, it just depends on how you arrive there.
Scenario A: The Blind Follower
You own Gabriel and need a replacement. Content creators, friends, cousins, that guy from Reddit and the bloke on X with 34 followers are all buying van Dijk. So you copy.
When the move flops, you can rage that they misled you and ruined your season. Liverpool will now concede three times in every match, so let’s sell him immediately.
I love the following quote by Tacitus: “Success has many fathers, but failure is an orphan”.
When something goes well, everyone wants credit. The moment it fails, you only did it because others said so.
Scenario B: The Informed Decision-Maker
Here, you evaluate first, before moving on to podcasts, article reading and drowning in the voices of social media. You notice the upsides of making all three decisions. But you also see the risks.
Liverpool’s defence has been poor all season, Newcastle at home are a different animal, and Man United might not be transformed. So when all three players blank, it hurts, but you breathe and say: “I knew this was possible. It’s fine. I’ll ride it out.”
The choice was yours; therefore the consequences are also yours.
Identical decisions and results, but with different emotional outcomes. Decision-making isn’t just about the selection. It’s the story behind.
You see, it’s not about avoiding popular picks or being different for the sake of being different. It’s about making your own decisions. Own them. Win with them, lose with them. But let them always be yours.
This week, the herd got burned. Next week, the same herd might feast. We can’t determine this.
However, our process? We can control that.
