634x258 Members
11 September 2015 1268 comments
Mathematically Safe Mathematically Safe
Share:

In what has been a largely unpredictable start to the season for Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers, we take a look at the defensive statistics of the first four Gameweeks to review how the performance of the teams is impacting on points tallies to this point.

In many ways the importance of team form is more pronounced for the defensive positions than it is in attacking areas.

Whereas a forward can play in a largely uninspiring team but still nick a goal, the best defenders can have clean sheet points taken away by a single slip from another player. FPL managers look for attacking potential to mitigate this, but stoic central defenders can also be valuable if they are part of a solid collective unit. Therefore, it is important to look at the defence in context of the team’s strengths as well as the individual’s.

For this analysis, we will use the team data available in the member’s area. The following chart ranks the teams by Opta’s metric ‘Bad Touches’ (in ascending order), from the ‘Disciplined’ teams who make limited mistakes and have high concentration, to the ‘Own Worst Enemy’ teams who have recorded many bad touches (see data table for reference below). The size of the circles denotes the rank of teams by crosses conceded, chances conceded, and big chances conceded (small is good, large is bad).

  1. Brian (Not the Messiah)
    • 16 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Start Prödl or Francis?

    1. Jazz!
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Francis.

      Not Prödl. Just wanted to say the Ö 🙂

  2. wedgec
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    a) Westwood & Benteke
    b) Sako & Gomis (3 swans)

    1. Gamoriola of the Galaxy (Eu…
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      B

    2. il Brutto
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Tough one maybe a in your case.

  3. Torres76
    • 15 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Who to drop out of this lot

    Ayew l Yaya l Sanchez l mahrez | Pedro

    Wilson | Gomis | Ageuro

    Cheers gang 🙂

    1. Jazz!
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Yaya 🙁

      1. Adam West - Team Serbia for…
        • 15 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Yaya Toure has found the back of the net in each of Man City's last three league matches against Crystal Palace.

    2. wedgec
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Tough. Might have to be Wilson. Or play your all out attack.

      1. Torres76
        • 15 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Or should that all out attack be reserved for a double gameweek?

        1. wedgec
          • 13 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          I don't know. It was briefly mentioned on the scoutcast and someone brought up the point defs can be as good as atts on dgw

        2. Iain Dowies Love Child
          • 15 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          Nah, triple captain for a DGW

    3. Junebug
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Ive got same team and im torn between wilson and gomis. Think im dropping wilson though as with montero back think swansea sure to score v watford

  4. Cilly Bonnolly
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Any word on Diouf? Worth a hit to get Wilson in if he's injured?

    1. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Depends who will come on for him for you.

      1. Cilly Bonnolly
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Westwood

    2. Jazz!
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Worth to get Wilson even if he's not injured. After Norwich he is facing Sunderland at home...

  5. joinho
    • 16 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Captaining De Bruyne in ultimate why the hell not

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Can always cover a failure.

    2. Vardy Gras PBFC
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      The beauty of UFPL, who is your MD2 backup?

      1. joinho
        • 16 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Kane, Mahrez, Albrighton, Vardy, and Payet for MD3

    3. Dr Dream
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      I've captained Silva every week and that's worked out pretty well awesome.

  6. the axolotl
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    john o'shea if he drops to 4.3 and nailed on? not suggesting sunderland are not brutal but they've kept lots of cleanies over last few years with a similarly awful team.

    1. Gamoriola of the Galaxy (Eu…
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      It's the nailed on I worry about.

      1. the axolotl
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        not this week. and if i buy, he's really an enabler with occasional games. think advocaat has realised they're all fairly poor, so whomever doesn't start next of the 3 contending CB's must be properly awful it his mind

        1. Gamoriola of the Galaxy (Eu…
          • 13 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          As an enabler you could do worse.

    2. Somalion
      • 15 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Not with Kaboul laying his eggs in their water supply.

      1. the axolotl
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        ha, there's an image i could do without. 4.3 and playing at all is fairly attention worthy imo tho

        1. Somalion
          • 15 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          I'm a tad cautious. First and foremost, we need the performances and the assurance he's nailed on. It depends how stretched for cash you are of course, but with so many cheap options it seems rather safe to avoid for a while yet!

          1. the axolotl
            • 14 Years
            10 years, 3 months ago

            if he plays and does ok this week i might use him in order to faciltiate myhill to begovic. one of those exact funds needed quandries

    3. Greenbackbøøg…
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      They've quietly become a bit better recently, I think we could be buying Sunderland defenders soon

      1. the axolotl
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        they haven't become an even worse team overnight after all 😉

  7. Vardy Gras PBFC
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Pairing question UFPL:

    A Rondon and Wijnaldum, or
    B Cisse and Morrison

    Looks obviously A to me, but just wondering if there was any support for B.

    1. Iain Dowies Love Child
      • 15 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      A

    2. waitinginthelonggrass
      • 15 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      A

    3. Dr Dream
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      A

    4. joinho
      • 16 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      A

    5. Vardy Gras PBFC
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Cheers all.

  8. Hardly Athletic
    • 16 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Pedro & Sagna or YYT & Kolarov?

    1. Gamoriola of the Galaxy (Eu…
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Pedro and Kola, but of those YYT and Kola.

  9. Iain Dowies Love Child
    • 15 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Wesley Hoolahan your time is now - well tomorrow at 15.00 to be precise

  10. ZakAFC_
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    What to do with this team?

    Ruddy (Butland)
    Kolarov, Azpi, Cedric (Huth, Francis)
    Hazard, Özil, Mahrez, Chadli (Wanyama)
    Agüero (c), Benteke, Wilson

    1FT, 0.9 ITB

    1. Iain Dowies Love Child
      • 15 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      You're a Gooner so has to be Haz-Sanchez

      1. ZakAFC_
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Don't want Alexis and Özil

        1. Iain Dowies Love Child
          • 15 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          Sorry didn't see Ozil in there - I'd bank your FT

  11. HurriKane
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Who'd you prefer guys ?

    Silva --->

    A) Pedro

    B) Chadli

    C) Yaya

    D) Keep

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      FT?

      1. HurriKane
        • 13 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Nope had to use it to ship coutinho for ayew. bench has bad fixtures and im willing to take the hit

    2. Man Chest Hair United
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      A

    3. Farcelona
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Hold.

    4. Iain Dowies Love Child
      • 15 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      D

  12. Davido989
    • 15 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Bellerin or Cresswell?

    First to 273

    1. Jazz!
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Has to be... Uhm

      Close one but Cresswell

    2. Je suis le chat
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Cresswell, nailed and performing with great fixtures.

    3. Davido989
      • 15 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      271 more

  13. waitinginthelonggrass
    • 15 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Start Deeney vs Swansea or Huth vs Villa?

    1. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      D

      1. waitinginthelonggrass
        • 15 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Always the D

    2. Jazz!
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      IMO Huth

    3. Farcelona
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Huth

    4. Marquis-Cha-Cha
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Lost a couple articles ago.

      Which 3 would you all play?

      Kola - Williams, Cedric, Huth, Francis.

      Currently on: Kola - Huth - Williams.

    5. Marquis-Cha-Cha
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Damn! Post FAIL.

  14. il Brutto
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Who's the better option Bellerin or Shaw?

    1. Farcelona
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Shaw

    2. Jazz!
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Uniteds fixtures are horrific except Sunderland in a week or two. Hector

    3. Demí
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      I think Arsenal's fixtures are better so Bellerin

    4. Vardy Gras PBFC
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      I'd go with Shaw because of the Debuchy factor.

    5. Nascimento
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      I'd go with Shaw because I'm Utd until I die and Glorie Glorie

  15. Farcelona
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Right, so I'm considering using 2 FTs before the deadline to do Diouf to Wilson and Redmond to Westwood. This will leave me with £2m to upgrade Payet to Pedro tomorrow night (assuming nothing unusual happens).

    Should I do it?

    Current team:

    Butland - McCarthy
    Kompany - Darmian - Gomez - Richards - Oxford
    Silva - Sanchez - Payet - Mahrez - Redmond
    Aguero - Gomis - Diouf

    Thanks in advance!

    1. Gamoriola of the Galaxy (Eu…
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Sounds like a good plan--although such plans gang aft agley.

  16. st4rt__
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    https://i.gyazo.com/6d5c5a352ad9e70e5f7672453bfbf1a0.png

    Feeling extremely confident this week.

    1. Jazz!
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Almost the same exact attack. Giving the armband to Mahrez over Aguerez though

    2. Bertzeiner-m
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      As you should with a team like that.

  17. Bertzeiner-m
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Captaining Mahrez is giving me anxiety. Or rather not captaining Kun, whichever it is. I have not gotten a single captaincy decision right thus far and another blank from Aguero would push me over the edge. My brain says Mahrez but my heart says Kun, or maybe its the other way around. Mahrez or Aguero? Anyone feel like a quick poll?

    1. Greenbackbøøg…
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      I'm feeling the same, I don't know what to do anymore captainwise

    2. Jazz!
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Had a hard time deciding between both. Went with Mahrez. Benefits:

      A) Facing Villa at home
      B) Leicester on red hot goal scoring form
      C) Mahrez is on red hot home goal scoring form
      D) Midfielder gets the extra point for the goal, and a potential clean sheet
      E) Playing on a Sunday so always that 'peace' that your captain is yet to play
      F) Watch him score a brace

  18. JK - Cønt ⭐
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Right I think I am GTG

    Ruddy

    Kolarov, Huth, Cedric

    Sterling, Sanchez, Mane, Mahrez

    Aguero (c), Wilson, Benteke

    Rudd, Westwood, Francis, Prodl

    1. Farcelona
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Solid.

    2. pundit of punts
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Very nice.

    3. Jafooli
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      100+ points right there....

  19. The Bandit
    • 15 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    5.8m in the bank. Crazy stuff 😀

    1. Adam West - Team Serbia for…
      • 15 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Win the Lotto ?

    2. Jafooli
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      I've stared offering credit cards....

  20. The Rock
    • 16 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Butland
    Richards, Kolarov, Cresswell
    Mahrez, Yaya, Sanchez, Payet
    Aguero, Pelle, Diouf
    McCarthey, Westwood, Gomez, Ward

    Any advise on transfer i should do this week? Diouf to Wilson or Gomis? 2M in the bank, 1 FT

    1. Jolly Good
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Gomis

    2. Jazz!
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Diouf to Wilson. Next week Yaya to Silva/KDB

    3. Bertzeiner-m
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Wilson

      1. The Rock
        • 16 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Thanks lads, think i am going to go for Wilson.

  21. Je suis le chat
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Play Gomez (man u) or Richards (lei)? Ta.

    1. Jazz!
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Oooo

      Has to be Gomez

      1. Je suis le chat
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Thanks, I'll prob go with Gomez. Already playing Westwood. Thankfully easier fixtures nxt week.

  22. pundit of punts
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Saving my FT. Team for the weekend.

    Myhill
    Kolarov - Nyom - Targett
    Sanchez - Pedro - Mahrez - Westwood
    Aguero - Benteke - Wilson

    McCarthy - Gomez - Muniesa - Silva

    Nothing in the bank.

    Good to go?

    1. JK - Cønt ⭐
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      all good

      might need one of those FTs next week to get a keeper

      1. pundit of punts
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Agreed.

        Lets see what Pulis and Pardew have to offer us this weekend.

    2. Farcelona
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Yes

      1. pundit of punts
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Cheers.

  23. Jeremiah
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Best move? 🙂

    A. Silva > KDB
    B. Silva > Sterling
    C. Silva > Pedro

    1. Wouter
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      I did C.

    2. Farcelona
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      D. Keep

      However, Pedro out of those 3 if you have no Chelsea cover.

    3. Jolly Good
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      B or C

    4. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      A

  24. Davido989
    • 15 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    When is Bertrand back?

    1. Adam West - Team Serbia for…
      • 15 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      "Ryan is more close than Jordy," said Koeman. "Ryan is also doing some parts of the sessions.

      "I have good hope that he will start training with the whole group from next Monday, but you have to understand that he didn’t have pre-season and that’s always difficult for a player, because three months without any game, three months without any good training sessions in football is a long time."

      1. pundit of punts
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Sounds like we can get 2-3 gws min out of Targett.

    2. internal error
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Maybe Next week or the week after. He should be back in full training next week

    3. Davido989
      • 15 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Thanks guys

    4. The Bandit
      • 15 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Targett good for a few weeks yet

    5. Paulodi.canio
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Too soon a couple of weeks max i think

  25. mad_beer ✅
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    FPL makes me make my own decisions and pay the consequences of them. I hate that. I need someone to blame.

    1. Jeremiah
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Hahaha same here come to think of it! 😀

  26. zuzuViking
    • 15 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Silva -> Sanchez/Pedro or play Huth?

  27. Pablitto
    • 15 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Final WC team - please thoughts:

    Bego / McC

    Kolarov Smalling Gomez Targett Saylor
    Pedro KdB Ayew Mata Sinclair
    A-W-G

    1. Pablitto
      • 15 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      0,1 itb

    2. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Who are the strikers?

      1. Pablitto
        • 15 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        The classic three: Aguero Wilson Gomis

      2. Paulodi.canio
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Aguero gomis wilson i think

    3. Declan
      • 15 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      I like it

    4. Elijah's Wood
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      I dislike the 2 £4m defenders, considering Targett will stop playing in a couple weeks. Gomez could unpredictably lose his spot, and Saylor has some unfavourable upcoming fixtures. Aside from that your front 8 are great, KDB is unproven but could be worth his price, prefer Sterling for £1m cheaper

  28. Norb
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Why is everyone transferring Silva out, isn't he just out for a week?

    1. Iain Dowies Love Child
      • 15 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Yup - crazy

    2. Jazz!
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Panic transfers and that Westwood is their only potential replacement if benching Silva. Which is why I have a fully playing front 8. Didn't have any city mids anyway

    3. Jeremiah
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      10.2 sitting on the bench is a lot.

    4. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Plenty don't want 10+ on the bench and don't like their 8th attacker.

    5. Pablitto
      • 15 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      with WC it has a sense

    6. Je suis le chat
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      I'll wait a week or so but concerned with KDB's arrival.

    7. Gamoriola of the Galaxy (Eu…
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      I agree in principle, but I have been waiting for an excuse to shake things up. I don't dare take out a healthy Silva right now, but if he's knackered, even for one week, it frees me to make a move I've been wanting to make (never had my eye on Silva as the means, but wheyhey!).

    8. Elijah's Wood
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      On a WC so was a little more swayed to get rid

  29. Harvey Specter
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    I`ll try again. On WC and I still have Silva.

    A) Silva, Scott Sinclair and a 4.7 defender*
    B) YYT, Mahrez and a 4.8 defender*

    *Not Gomez, Oxford or Targett.

    1. Je suis le chat
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      B) and maybe JEvans

  30. Woy of the Wovers
    • 15 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    I'm a bit sceptical of this article. Well presented and argued but I feel there is a massive fiddle factor in the measure of the opposition. I've tried doing something similar but have withheld results because I'm not convinced I've got it right. My concern is more to do with team stats that seem to be more sensitive to sample risk. For example, Chelsea concede lots of chances > the teams they played create lots of chances. I've not yet figured it out so I'll remain a sceptic.