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11 September 2015 1268 comments
Mathematically Safe Mathematically Safe
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In what has been a largely unpredictable start to the season for Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers, we take a look at the defensive statistics of the first four Gameweeks to review how the performance of the teams is impacting on points tallies to this point.

In many ways the importance of team form is more pronounced for the defensive positions than it is in attacking areas.

Whereas a forward can play in a largely uninspiring team but still nick a goal, the best defenders can have clean sheet points taken away by a single slip from another player. FPL managers look for attacking potential to mitigate this, but stoic central defenders can also be valuable if they are part of a solid collective unit. Therefore, it is important to look at the defence in context of the team’s strengths as well as the individual’s.

For this analysis, we will use the team data available in the member’s area. The following chart ranks the teams by Opta’s metric ‘Bad Touches’ (in ascending order), from the ‘Disciplined’ teams who make limited mistakes and have high concentration, to the ‘Own Worst Enemy’ teams who have recorded many bad touches (see data table for reference below). The size of the circles denotes the rank of teams by crosses conceded, chances conceded, and big chances conceded (small is good, large is bad).

  1. A.T
    • 15 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    McCarthy
    Darmian Kolorov Gomez
    Chadli Mahrez hazard Westwood
    Giroud Wilson Aguero

    Myhill Oxford silva ward.

    1ft 1.0 itb

    Any suggestions?

    1. Jeremiah
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      I'd save.

    2. Demel
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Worried about having no keeper? I have the same keepers and have wondered about being Sorenson in for Myhill.

      1. A.T
        • 15 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        I tempted to get Begovic

        1. Hibbo
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          Given your keepers it wouldn't be a bad shout at all.

          I have yours playing the other way about and I'd imagine I'll go Myhill > Begovic ft next week.

          1. A.T
            • 15 Years
            10 years, 3 months ago

            Yep that was a typo. I'll hope Myhill starts

    3. Demel
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Silva to Pedro makes sense.

      1. A.T
        • 15 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Nah I'm happy to hold for one game. Plus don't want to double up on Chelsea. Cheers though

        1. Demel
          • 14 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          Makes sense. I am tempted by the Myhill and Silva to Sorenson and Pedo trade. Otherwise like you Westwood plays and he is a 2 point machine. Pedro needs an assist or goal to break even and Sorenson pre-empts next weeks transfer.

    4. Hibbo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Silva out a boot in the teeth.

      Good luck this gw tim.

      Holding probably the wise move, nice Hazard.

      Sad I sold him. 🙁

      1. A.T
        • 15 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Cheers Tony.

    5. Snikii
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      keeping silva seems risky 2 me

  2. Numb
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Danny Higginbotham: "hold Rooney, he will come good...its all panic...all panic"

    Wise words

    1. The Suspended One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      for united or fantasy football?

      His days of being a heavy hitter are over.....unless you count the buffet

      1. Numb
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        FF of course!

        1. Mark
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 18 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          The "expert" guy on the show disagreed though 😉

  3. Jeremiah
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Best move? 🙂

    A. Diouf > Wilson & play Westwood.

    B. Silva > KDB & play Diouf with Westwood on the bench.

    1. Le _ Professeur
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      A

    2. The Suspended One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      I'd really want diouf after this week. Silva too

      I would confidently hold if i were you

    3. A.T
      • 15 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      A

  4. surfer11
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Thoughts on Shaqiri? Stoke with good fixtures coming up

    1. kalmoffit
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      It will be interesting to see how he does.

      1. surfer11
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        I'm trying to decide between Shaqiri and Gomis or Ayew and Diouf, money not really an issue

  5. Piggs Boson
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    This article though...

    Great work shoemaker! I love how the data is weighted against the strength of opponents!! It's always bothered me that no one takes that into account when regurgutating stats

    1. The Suspended One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      best put together statistics I've seen in a long time, and thats saying a lot here..

  6. il Brutto
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Am I looking ready with this WC team? 0,7 left ITB for upgrading Targett later on.

    Begovic / McCarthy
    Kolarov Creswell Clyne / Haidara Targett
    Sanchez Pedro Yaya Mahrez / Westwood
    Kun Gomis Wilson

  7. S.Kuqi
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Is Kdb expected to start despite playing two int. games? Nasri could start instead

    1. BrockLanders
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      I reckon he'll start.

  8. Guy Demel's SH
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    I'm looking for a Rooney replacement. Is Giroud being overlooked in general on here? Noticed he's on -88% on fpl stats.

    1. Nascimento
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Stop being bitter ABU

    2. The Train Driver
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Awful pick tbh!

      1. Guy Demel's SH
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Why?

        1. The Train Driver
          • 10 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          Because it's Giroud who got booed by his own country for being so shite!

    3. Demel
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Have you stolen my profile picture?

      If you change your pic I will tell you that Walcott makes Giroud's place too much under threat for a striker spot.

      1. Guy Demel's SH
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        I'm looking at him for a one week punt tbh. Probably WC next week.

        Also my pic is from a different angle!

  9. Hakuho FPL
    • 15 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    pelle to gomis or save transfer?

    1. BrockLanders
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Save. Pelle looks to have found his form..

  10. Slam
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Bravo Mark.
    Well spoken

  11. Gazpilicueta
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Sorry Bottomed!

    Last opportunity for you to share your valuable advice with me this week!

    Butland, Ruddy

    Kolarov, Cedric, Huth, Francis, Coates

    Hazard, Silva, Chadli, Mahrez, Ibe

    Pelle, Wilson, Aguero

    0.5 in the bank, 1 free transfer, here are the options I am currently considering

    A) Silva to Ayew, keep it simple, free transfer done

    B) No transfers, play Francis and huth with Kolarov and Cedric, Silva is important for the future.

    C) Coates to Ollson, not much funds here but I need to get rid of him at some point

    D) Ibe to someone who will play, but again, would only have 5.4 to spend (get through this week)

    E) 2 transfers, not sure which 2

    F) 3 transfers! -8 is worth it, fix the team!

    G) Wildcard.....this late in the week I know its silly. but Im struggling

    1. S.Kuqi
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      A for sure

      1. Gazpilicueta
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        or Yaya instead of Ayew?

    2. BrockLanders
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Can you afford Kouyate?

      1. Gazpilicueta
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        for Ibe?

        1. Gazpilicueta
          • 11 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          0.2 short

    3. kalmoffit
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      A

    4. The Suspended One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      ABCDEFG

      1. Gazpilicueta
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        thats your order of preference?

        1. The Suspended One
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          no, thats the alphabet 🙂

    5. I Member
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      B by far. Francis and Huth both have good fixtures and you'll want Silva next week. You'll probably find it easier to fix your team up next week with 2 FTs than you would be doing one here and another one later as well.

      F is madness. So is G.

  12. Four Four Boyz
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    That was class - good work Mark!

    1. Gazpilicueta
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      on point Mark

    2. Mark
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 18 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Thanks...do you always listen in or were you tipped off?

      1. Gazpilicueta
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        tipped off on here.....nicely done. a great representation of yourself and the site. 10/10

      2. Gazpilicueta
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        ps, any chance of some tips on my team?

      3. The 12th Man
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Nice tips. Is that a weekly slot you have?

        1. Mark
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 18 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          Aye...although I'm going to try and rope in Dufflinks to help me out some weeks.

          1. The 12th Man
            • 12 Years
            10 years, 3 months ago

            Sweet, will tune in if I remember.

  13. white lightning
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    I'm a Silva owner & decided to take a -4 hit. I haven't done it yet. 1ft & 1.5itb
    Silva out, YYT in
    Westwood out, Redmond in

    Butland
    Kolorov, Shaw, Williams
    Sanchez, YYT, Ayew, Mahrez, Redmond
    Aguero (c), Gomis

    McCarthy, Diouf, Gomez, Richards

    I will wait to the last possible minute but if Diouf is out I will take the hit.
    (a) take the -4 hit or
    (b) just do Silva to YYT with ft or
    (c) just do Westwood to Redmond with ft
    (d) do (b) or (c) & play Gomez.

    Thanks.

  14. The Train Driver
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Sanchez scored 2 vs Stoke last game! Aguero scored 0 vs CP last time they played! Just saying...

    1. Nascimento
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Glorie Glorie man Utd

      And superman

      And Barca

      1. The Train Driver
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        What drugs are you on this time?

    2. Slam
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Aguero doesn't look to be impacted with Silva injured, and De Bruyne looks like a fantastic feeder to set Aguero up a couple times. Ward injured as well!

      Just saying...

      1. The Train Driver
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        He's my (C) although I can see Sanchez doing well too...

  15. GuyIncognito
    • 16 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Complete madness bringing Ritchie in?

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      I have him but I probably wouldn't bring him in.

  16. _Ninja_
    • 15 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Who to get in for Courtois for the team below? Cheers

    1m in the bank.

    Courtois
    Kolarov / Gomez / Darmian
    Yaya / Pedro / Mahrez / Sanchez
    Wilson / Aguero / Gomis

    McCarthy / Westwood / Richards / Muniesa

    1. Elijah's Wood
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Begovic or Fabianski, but not for a hit. Id play mccarthy while he gets starts

  17. Snikii
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Darmian or Richards to play?

    1. kalmoffit
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Darmian

  18. BaggieFlan
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    First post guys, just hit the wildcard...thoughts, suspect I may panic change before 11.45!

    Myhill (Lindegaard)

    Naughton, Cedric, Kolarov (Francis, Gomez)

    Kouyate, Sanchez, Sako, Ayew, Pedro

    Aguero, Wilson (Rondon)

    1. Gazpilicueta
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Rondon to Sakho for me, and Kouyate to Mahrez

      1. BaggieFlan
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Great shout - done it,

        Thanks!

    2. Elijah's Wood
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Not sure how well Myhill/Lind will work out when Foster comes back, might be better going Fabianski/£4/Dawson instead of Naughton.

      Why Rondon? I like watching him when he plays but seems a bit expensive to go 3-5-2

      1. BaggieFlan
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Local news reckons he's knackered from 2 games in 4 days and flying from South America, will start him next week though.

        Good shout re keepers, will have a look, cheers

        1. Elijah's Wood
          • 11 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          Fair enough, not sure how well WBA will do going forward but Rondon does look impressive, there are more reliable players at 6-6.5 but who doesnt like a punt 🙂

  19. Dynamic Duos
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Can't find the right ft and Diouf is maybe out

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Save then.

      1. Dynamic Duos
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        But Darmian is 1st sub

        1. TorresMagic™
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 16 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          8th attacker?

          1. Dynamic Duos
            • 12 Years
            10 years, 3 months ago

            Surman

            1. TorresMagic™
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 16 Years
              10 years, 3 months ago

              You may want 2 FTs next week. Currently you get 1/2 for the last spot.
              All depends on if you want to sell Diouf. I look at FT as -4 if you needed 2 transfers next week etc. Would want 6+ from the replacement.

              1. Dynamic Duos
                • 12 Years
                10 years, 3 months ago

                No I don't want rid off Diouf, but I need 0.3 or 2ft next week for Mane to Coutinho.

    2. Elijah's Wood
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      I would keep Diouf so you can play him next week for his awsome run of fixtures, just play Surman

  20. The Mighty Slovenian
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    What's the deal with Silva?

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      He's out. Scout tweets.

      1. The Mighty Slovenian
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Thanks, missed the tweet. So De Bruyne could be the logical swap, right? I'm sure all the options have been discussed already 🙂

        1. TorresMagic™
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 16 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          Plenty of choices.

    2. Demel
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Injured for at least a week.

    3. Fred54
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      SIlva owner here. Could be a blessing in disguise, if the Citeh midfeld is gonna go all scatter gun FPL points wise, then best look elsehwhere.

  21. Jazz!
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    That's it. Taking a break. Team sorted for tomorrow

    Myhill

    Kolarov - Darmian

    Mahrez (C) - Sanchez (VC) - Chadli - Ayew - Pedro

    Aguero - Gomis - Wilson

    (Butland - Francis - Gomez - Muniesa)

    1. Every Dog Has Its Day
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Goodluck mate!

      Brave captaincy choice.

    2. BrockLanders
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Very nice. Good luck

    3. Jazz!
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Thanks guys. Good luck to you too!

  22. D0GS B0110XS FC
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Worth getting payet in for a 4pt hit?

    1. The Suspended One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      no...

      1. D0GS B0110XS FC
        • 13 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Next question then. Play oxford home to newcastle or transfer silva out for kdb (4pt hit)

        1. The Suspended One
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          that hit won't work out long term, better to take the blank or get a compotent 5th MF or 4/5 DEF

    2. BrockLanders
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Goodness no

  23. Every Dog Has Its Day
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    That was very good Mark. I'll definitely be tuning in for it every week now. 🙂

    1. The Suspended One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      anywhere to hear a playback??

      1. Gazpilicueta
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Basically mark said, " I like Antonio, Ayew, Mahrez, I dont like Coutinho or Walcott" but he did it in style 🙂

        1. The Suspended One
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          cant argue there

  24. DannyBoy....
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Start Mccarthy (MCY) or Panti (TOT) ???

  25. BT31 - WE ARE ALL TINKERMEN…
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Who to captain? Unsure Sanchez or Aguero?

    Schmeichel
    Mertesacker Kolarov Azpi
    Mahrez Ayew Yaya Sanchez
    Aguero Wilson Benteke

    Hennessey Sinclair Morgan Ward

  26. Gatsby
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Tempted to do Hazard -> Sanchez for -4, but then captain him?

    Someone talk me out of it!

    1. Every Dog Has Its Day
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      I can't talk you out of something I like 😛

    2. The Suspended One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      i guess this means i HAVE to do it for free 🙂

    3. Gatsby
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      bah you guys are no help 😛

  27. Evans
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    On a wildcard so welcome opinions

    Begovic
    Gomez, Kolarov, Huth
    Mahrez, Sanchez, Hazard, Ayew
    Wilson, Aguero, Benteke

    Rudd, Ward, Fletcher, Targett

  28. makaveli70
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    play chadi or yaya???

    1. Royal5
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Surely both.

      1. makaveli70
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        just one

        1. Gazpilicueta
          • 11 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          who else are you playing?

          1. makaveli70
            • 11 Years
            10 years, 3 months ago

            Ayew - Mahrez - Pedro - Chadli
            Sakho - Wilson - Agüero

  29. Dre
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Finally logged on to see the scout picks are up.

    What do you think my chances are lads?

    1. Mark
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 18 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      I fear your Sterling Pick.

      1. The Suspended One
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        especially with silva out..

      2. Dr Dream
        • 13 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Top pick this week IMO Mark.

    2. Hibbo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Didn't realise you are community chaml this week must check out your team.

    3. Gazpilicueta
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      I think youve got a good chance of the season win here.....crucially you have different picks. and this year, WHO KNOWS! good luck bro. im voting for you

  30. Hibbo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    I'll fire mine out...

    Myhill
    Kolarov, Darmian, Targett
    Sanchez (c), Pedro, Yaya, Mahrez
    Aguero (vc), Gomis, Wilson

    bench: McCarthy, Westwood, R.Martin, M.Richards

    0ft 2.9m itb