Next up in our assessment of the Group E teams is Italy. Antonio Conte’s troops open their campaign with a tricky head-to-head against Belgium on Monday June 13 at 8pm before squaring up to Sweden four days later at 2pm and the Republic of Ireland on Wednesday June 22 at 8pm.
Second favourites for the group behind the Belgians, Conte’s side would square up to the winners of Group F, which is likely to be Portugal, if they finish runners-up. A first-place spot would see them face the second-placed side in Group D, which is expected to be Croatia – a side they managed a pair of 1-1 draws with in qualifying.
Road to Qualification
Italy arrive in Euro 2016 as winners of qualifying Group H, having won seven and drawn three of their ten fixtures.
The Azzurri failed to impress at either end of the pitch, though. They scored just five times in two fixtures against Azerbaijan and conceded on both occasions, whilst a pair of 1-0 wins over Malta were far from inspiring. Indeed, despite being handed a very weak group, Conte’s side won by a single goal on just two occasions and kept a mere four clean sheets.
This can partly be put down to a lack of consistency as Conte chopped and changed both tactics and personnel on numerous occasions. Italy have trialled 3-5-2, 3-4-3 and 4-4-2 formations, whilst their outgoing manager utilised 34 players over the qualifying period – more than any other side.
In terms of recent friendlies, Italy have triumphed in just one of their six fixtures over the last 12 months – a 1-0 win over Scotland last week. Aside from that, they were beaten by Portugal (0-1), Belgium (1-3) and Germany (1-4) and managed draws with Romania (2-2) and Spain (1-1), underlining their problems at both ends of the park.
Most Appearances Matteo Darmian (10), Gianluigi Buffon, Leonardo Bonucci, Antonio Candreva (9), Giorgio Chiellini (8), Mattia de Sciglio, Graziano Pelle (7), Alessandro Florenzi (6)
Most goals Graziano Pelle (3), Antonio Candreva, Giorgio Chiellini, Eder (2)
Most assists Antonio Candreva (2), Giorgio Chiellini, Mattia de Sciglio, Alessandro Florenzi, Sebastian Giovinco, Manuel Pasqual, Andrea Pirlo, Marco Verratti, Simone Zaza (1).
The Key Targets
To an extent, our assessment of Italy’s main men will be influenced by their manager’s tactics.
As the only player to feature in all ten group matches, Matteo Darmian seems likely to start regardless of formation. Priced at 5.5, his versatility looks key here – over the five friendlies since the end of qualifying, the United player featured twice as a right-back and twice as part of a back-three before playing as a left wing-back against Scotland. Having finished first for successful tackles and second for both interceptions and crosses, Darmian also looks an appealing option for the DraftKings game.
In terms of secure starters at the back, Conte’s faith in the old guard of Gianluigi Buffon, Giorgio Chiellini (both 6.0) and Leonardo Bonucci (5.5) remains resolute. Despite their somewhat dodgy defensive record on the road to France, it’s worth noting that Italy conceded less shots inside the box than any qualifier, which may persuade some to consider the hefty outlay, with Chiellini looking the best bet amongst that trio. The Juventus man produced second goals and an assist –firing seven efforts inside the box – and was first and third for interceptions and tackles respectively, which heightens his DraftKings potential.
Like Darmian, Antonio Candreva’s potential may depend on Conte’s tactical set-up from one match to the next – over those recent friendlies, the Lazio man has been utilised as a right wing-back in a 3-5-2, a left winger in a 4-4-2 and wide right up front in a 3-4-3. Priced at 7.5 in Uefa, Candreva bagged two goals and as many assists over qualifying and produced at least twice the number of crosses as any team-mate in qualifying.
One of only three outfield players to start the last five friendlies, Alessandro Florenzi comes in at 7.0 in Uefa. The Roma midfielder has been handed corner kick duties in Pirlo’s absence and leads the way for key passes and crosses over that period. Furthermore, only Pelle has bettered him for attempts on goal, suggesting he could be an under the radar option with 1% ownership.
Top scorer in qualifying with three strikes, Graziano Pelle fired more than double the number of shots inside the box than any team-mate over that period. Priced at 8.5 in the Uefa game, the Southampton striker netted the weekend winner again Scotland and offer Conte’s attack a physical focal point up top regardless of formation. As we’ve seen in the Premier League so often, though, a lack of consistency renders Pelle a somewhat frustrating pick for our three-man frontlines.
The Long Shots
The Italians have typically furnished up with a handful of options in the centre of the park in previous international tournaments but this time around, there’s a real lack of midfield depth. With Pirlo overlooked due to his move to the MLS, and the likes of Claudio Marchisio and Marco Verratti sidelined through injury, Conte’s decision to omit Napoli playmaker Jorginho has been widely criticised.
The incoming Chelsea boss has defended his squad selection and suggested he’s looking to spring a surprise and it may well be that the likes of Federico Bernardischi emerges as an unlikely option. Priced at just 6.0 in Uefa, he fired four goals in five Europa League starts for Fiorentina in 2015/16 and has featured in all three of the recent friendlies.
The versatile Eder offers Conte an option as part of a front three or alongside Pelle up top. Having scored 12 times in 19 league outings for Sampdoria, he joined Inter in a two-year loan deal in January but has since scored just once in 14 Serie A appearances for Roberto Mancini’s side. The Brazilian-born frontman comes in at just 6.5 in Uefa and has started four of the last five friendlies, supplying the assist for the winner against Scotland.
Upcoming Friendlies
Italy vs Finland (June 6)
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Further Analysis
Group A – Albania, France, Romania, Switzerland.
Group B England, Russia, Slovakia, Wales.
Group C Germany, Northern Ireland, Poland, Ukraine.
Group D Croatia, Czech Republic, Spain, Turkey.
Group E Belgium
