Group F’s favourites bring with them a wealth of tournament experience.
That strength is also their weakness, though, with an ageing defence and an attack heavily reliant on Cristiano Ronaldo vulnerable to a vibrant Austria team that is primed to push them all the way.
The Selecao start their campaign on Tuesday, June 14, against Iceland at 8pm, before another evening kick-off, against the Austrians, four days later and a final group match with Hungary at 5pm on Wednesday, June 22.
If topping the group is not a given, failing to do so might actually be a blessing in disguise. Group F’s winners will face the runners-up from Group E – likely to be either Italy or Belgium. Finishing second, however, will mean a Round of 16 tie with Group B’s runners-up, probably one of Russia or Wales.
THE ROAD TO QUALIFICATION
A 1-0 away defeat to Albania in the first match of qualifying led to the dismissal of coach Paulo Bento.
His replacement, Fernando Santos, then oversaw seven straight wins as Portugal topped their qualifying group by seven points.
Santos came to the job on the back of two impressive tournaments at the helm of a well-organised, defensively solid Greek side that made it to the knockout stages of both Euro 2012 and the World Cup in 2014.
By the end of qualifying, he had moulded his new charges in that same robust image. Portugal kept four clean sheets and conceded five goals in eight matches, but they also scored on just 11 occasions, with Ronaldo finding the net five times in six starts, while Monaco’s Joao Moutinho was the only other player to score more than once.
Seven wins from eight looks impressive, but every victory was secured by a single goal margin, and of the 33 players Santos used in qualifying, no fewer than 15 were the wrong side of 30 years of age.
In six friendlies following qualification, Portugal have waxed and waned.
Eye-catching wins over Belgium (2-1) and Norway (3-0) followed 1-0 losses to both Russia and Bulgaria, while they failed to muster a single shot on goal during their most recent defeat, against England, in which Bruno Alves saw red for his wild challenge on Harry Kane.
Most Appearances Rui Patricio, Nani (8); Joao Moutinho, Danny (7); Ricardo Carvalho, Ricardo Quaresma, Cristiano Ronaldo (6); Eliseu, Tiago, William Carvalho, Eder (5).
Most Goals Cristiano Ronaldo (5); Joao Moutinho (2); Miguel Veloso, Fabio Coentrao, Ricardo Carvalho, Nani (1).
Most Assists Ricardo Quaresma (2), Joao Moutinho, Fabio Coentrao, Rui Patricio, Bruno Alves, Eliseu (1)
THE KEY TARGETS
Cristiano Ronaldo’s importance to the side is beyond measure. In 125 international appearances, he’s notched 56 goals and 20 assists. Tellingly, his record in competitive fixtures for his country is even better – 44 goals and 14 assists in 83 matches.
No surprise, then, that at 12.0 he is the costliest forward in the official UEFA game. His big match pedigree is unquestionable, but such a huge outlay looks prohibitive for a man, however gifted, in a side with such a blunt attack.
There are also questions of fatigue and fitness hanging over Portugal’s talisman, who is currently owned by 28% of UEFA managers. He might have scored the winning penalty in Real Madrid’s Champions League final victory over Atletico, but Ronaldo was an otherwise listless and uninspiring presence throughout – the product, arguably, of an injury-hit end to a long La Liga season.
As a result, Portugal’s defence is where points should be more easily found.
Age is a major factor here – Ricardo Carvalho, at 38, would be the oldest outfield player at the tournament if selected, and the more likely centre-back pairing of Pepe with Bruno Alves still clocks up a combined age of 67. Alves is priced at 5.0, the other two at 5.5, and it is the 15%-owned Pepe who looks the best bet for starts and clean sheets.
Behind him, goalkeeper Rui Patricio (5.0) is the other defensive standout – and arguably a better option. He earned four clean sheets and produced 21 saves in qualifying and is owned by 9% of UEFA managers currently.
Joao Moutinho (7.5) is a cultured midfield performer and a strong tackler who can also provide a good dead-ball delivery – he was second only to Ronaldo for chances created in the qualifying starges,. He is less attractive in the UEFA game, which explains his current 3% take-up figure, but is one to consider in DraftKings for his all-round contribution.
THE LONG SHOTS
Nani (7.5) looks almost certain to play off Ronaldo as one of the three attacking players in a 4-3-3. A talented but erratic performer, he was second only to the Real talisman for attempts on goal and efforts in the box over qualifying and is a better option in DraftKings, given that he is the team’s most prolific supplier of crossed balls. Should Santos opt for a midfield diamond with two up front, though Ricardo Quaresma may be one to consider. His two goals and pair of assists against Estonia on Wednesday evening suggests that, at a price of 6.0, he could be poised to partner Ronaldo up top.
Joao Mario has played more minutes than any other member of Santos’ squad over Portugal’s friendlies and could well have cemented a starting berth on the right, tucking in to support the attack. Priced at 6.0, he’s created more chances than any team-mate over those fixtures.
In such an ageing squad, the 18-year-old midfielder Renato Sanches (4.5) could be the exception that proves the rule. Bayern’s recent big money signing is being touted to make an impact in the tournament and 13% have so far shown faith in the potential powerhouse budget enabler. Definitely one to monitor.
Another attractive budget option is Raphael Guerreiro, who is priced at just 4.0 and could earn the left-back berth over Eliseu as the pair vie for the spot vacated by the injured Fabio Coentrao. Eliseu looks likely to be Santo’s preferred starter, however, having earned the nod against England, but at 5.0 he still represents a cheaper alternatives to Pepe. Santo’s team sheet for the midweek friendly against Estonia is likely to give us an indication of his preferred option between the pair.
Euro 16 Statistics Now Available
Our Members Area now contains full Opta data for all the 24 participating nations in Euro 16. It includes statistics covering the Qualifying Rounds and all the friendlies for the last 12-months – we will also be providing statistics throughout the tournament from June 10, updated minutes after the final whistle of each match.
This Euro 16 statistics are provided in addition to the regular Premier League season package. New memberships are now available for the pre-season price of just £12.50 and will expire on June 1 2017. Full details on the benefits of membership can be found here.
Registered user can upgrade here. New users can register as a member here.
Upcoming Friendlies
Portugal v Estonia (7.45pm) Wednesday, June 8.
Further Analysis
Group A – Albania, France, Romania, Switzerland.
Group B England, Russia, Slovakia, Wales.
Group C Germany, Northern Ireland, Poland, Ukraine.
Group D Croatia, Czech Republic, Spain, Turkey.
Group E Belgium, Italy, Republic of Ireland, Sweden.
