Following on from our analysis of goalkeepers, budget defenders, mid-priced defenders, premium defenders, budget midfielders, mid price midfielders, premium midfielders and budget forwards in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) player list, our next foray takes us to mid-price forwards.
While budget frontmen can sometimes be blighted by rotation, FPL managers should have greater confidence amongst this group in terms of definite starters.
Our current cast of mid-price options also contains some of last year’s budget picks who far exceeded expectations and their lowly valuation.
Watford’s two forwards Troy Deeney (7.0) and Odion Ighalo (7.5) are two such examples.
Although Ighalo bettered his strike partner by 175 points to 166 last time around, there are question marks over his consistency. The Nigerian scored 14 times in the first 19 Gameweeks of 2015/16, netting against top eight sides such as West Ham, Liverpool (both twice), Spurs and Chelsea, but notched just twice over the second half of the season.
In comparison, Deeney offered returns throughout the campaign, thanks in part to his penalty taking duties – six successful spot kicks in 2015/16 were more than any other player.
So far in pre-season, both players have started four of Watford’s five friendlies, though are taking time to click in new manager Walter Mazzarri’s 3-5-2 formation – Ighalo has yet to score, whilst Deeney has struck just once.
Up against Southampton, Chelsea, Arsenal, West Ham and Man United in their first five, many may choose to overlook the pair initially, though Ighalo surprisingly sits in 11% of squads so far compared to Deeney’s 6%.
Leicester new boy Ahmed Musa is the man of the moment after a midweek brace against Barcelona. It remains to be seen whether he can immediately force his way into Claudio Ranieri’s XI, though with Jamie Vardy nailed-on as the lone forward, Musa could be confined to a central support role or spot on the flank at best. Regardless, his eye for goal and 7.5 price tag have persuaded over 11% to invest.
Liverpool’s Christian Benteke and Man City’s Wilfried Bony (both 7.5) need to find themselves new clubs to remain in contention. Benteke’s 42 goals in three seasons for Villa shows his capabilities and a mooted move to Palace could be Fantasy gold.
With Pep Guardiola strengthening his options in attacking midfield, and Sergio Aguero undoubtedly City’s number one striker, Bony and team-mate Kelechi Iheanacho (7.0) may have to rely on minutes off the bench unless injuries hit hard at the Etihad. Eight goals and an assist in just 766 minutes last year suggest the latter could prosper if given the opportunity.
At 7.0 apiece, Divock Origi and Marcus Rashford have the potential to offer excellent value if they can cement regular starts at Liverpool and United respectively. Given the transfers-in over the summer at both clubs, neither player looks assured of minutes right now and looks an unnecessary risk for our initial 15-man squads.
Another budget success story was Jermain Defoe, who has seen his price rise from 5.5 to 7.0 on the back of 15 goals last term. This was the veteran’s sixth double-digit goal scoring return in nine Premier League seasons, though the departure of Sam Allardyce could force a reassessment as the Black Cats become accustomed to life under David Moyes.
Defoe is also a slight doubt for the season kick-off and has failed to feature in Sunderland’s last few friendlies due to injury.
The departure of Graziano Pelle is set to shake up the Southampton attack for the season ahead. Intriguingly, new manager Claude Puel has moved away from the usual 4-2-3-1 and rolled out a midfield diamond system with two up front.
Although midfielder Nathan Redmond (6.0) has also been utilised up front and may come to the fore as an out of position prospect, both Shane Long and Charlie Austin also have the chance to emerge as excellent value under the Frenchman.
Long finished 2015/16 as a regular in the Saints’ attack, scoring ten times and assisting a further four goals, and is currently the most popular FPL forward priced at 7.5 and under, with 14% ownership.
Injury meant Austin only managed 211 minutes of play following his move from QPR, but a tally of 18 goals in 2014/15 for the Hoops indicates that, if given pitch time, he can deliver excellent returns.
Home games against Watford and Sunderland in the first four Gameweeks could prove especially profitable for one, if not both, though it’s uncertain who Puel will select for the season opener against the Hornets.
After a stellar 2014/15, where he scored 14 goals, Saido Berahino’s West Brom career nosedived due to transfer speculation.
If, as is widely expected, he moves clubs and is guaranteed starts he could provide excellent value at 6.5.
Berahino has already scored two goals in pre-season and his expected departure is set to cement Salomon Rondon’s role as West Brom’s main striker. The 6.5 priced Venezuelan enjoyed a solid start in his debut Premier League season where he scored nine times and notched three assists, though picking a Tony Pulis attacker typically tends to be a risky tactic.
Injury has hampered Andy Carroll’s now lengthy Premier League career that spans nine seasons and has seen him score 43 times for Newcastle, Liverpool and latterly West Ham.
The big Geordie’s injury history suggests that his acquisition will always come with a degree of risk but if he can stay fit, he’s capable of offering superb value at just 6.5 – providing Slaven Bilic doesn’t bring in a big-name forward, of course.
Nine goals from 13 starts last term gave a glimmer of what a fit Carroll can achieve, as does his impressive 35.2 minute per goal attempt in the box statistic from 2015/16. With home fixtures against Bournemouth and Watford in the first four Gameweeks, FPL managers will be hoping he can remain clear of the treatment room.
Among the promoted clubs’ forwards, Andre Gray is arguably the most enticing option. Priced at 6.5 he offers both goals and assists, bagging 23 and creating a further eight in 41 starts last season. Owned by 11% of FPL managers, Gray has already struck nine times in pre-season – netting in all six of his appearances – whilst Burnley are the only side set to play four times at home (SWA, LIV, che, HUL, lei) in the first six Gameweeks.
Middlesbrough’s summer signing Alvaro Negredo has been quick to make his presence felt and scored twice in as many starts over the summer. Aitor Karanka’s penchant for freshening up his attack could mean Negredo’s minutes are restricted late on in matches, though the former City frontman brings vital top-flight experience to ‘Boro’s attack and is expected to be handed the majority of starts ahead of Jordan Rhodes (6.0) as the lone striker in a 4-2-3-1.
Second only to Long for ownership (11.5%) in the 7.5 and under category, Negredo could benefit from some kind opening matches as the promoted side face Stoke, Sunderland, West Brom, Palace and Everton in the first five Gameweeks.
Callum Wilson (6.5)’s promising 2015/16 campaign for Bournemouth was curtailed by injury but with five goals in a mere nine starts he did enough to justify his mid price valuation this time around. A home clash against Man United and tricky away ties to West Ham and Man City in the first five Gameweeks may curtail initial interest for many.
