Four Gameweeks into last season, you’d have been laughed out of town for suggesting it was time to ditch Riyad Mahrez.
Well, in the words of Bob Monkhouse, they’re not laughing now.
So unexpected was the early success of the Algerian – and his team for that matter – that most Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers were still contemplating boarding the bandwagon by mid-September 2015.
Four goals in as many matches, as it turned out, was just the start of it. The rest, a further 13 goals, 11 assists, Player of the Year and the Premier League title, was history – and all for just 7.2.
His current value of 9.4 is certainly no laughing matter for a man who’s managed just the one goal, from the penalty spot, another penalty missed and a mere 13 points to his name.
Just over 20% of FPL managers, or 821,222, have kept faith in the midfielder, down from a high, in GW2, of 997,893.
It’s not hard to see why his popularity, while still strong, is on the wane.
Comparing his current start to last year’s meteoric affair might seem a tad unfair, but by any benchmark his first four outings of this campaign have been decidedly mediocre.
This season’s Mahrez has actually managed to up the stats for general passing and involvement, but his effectiveness is well down – a 24.1% success rate for dribbles compared to a staggering 68.8% last season suggests that either opponents have worked him, out or he’s low on confidence.
Or a mix of the two.
His final product is poor – involved in 57.1% of Leicester’s goals in the opening fixtures last year, that figure is down to 25% today.
Penalty box touches are down from 5.2 to 4.5 per match, the result perhaps of a more structured role for Mahrez in which he is required to track back and provide support for the right back.
And he is nowhere near last year’s average of a goal and 3.2 attempts per match, an attempt every 22.9 minutes, a 30.8% conversion of chances into goals and a 46.2% shot accuracy figure. This year, those stats are down to 0.2, 3.0, 31.8, 8.3% and 33.3% respectively.
But never mind the stats, let’s look at his price.
9.4 currently gets you one point more than colleague Danny Drinkwater and his outlay of just 5.5. Only four midfielders cost more than Mahrez. Three are easily out-performing him, while the fourth, Mesut Ozil, has started only twice thus far and is still only two points off Mahrez’s total.
All of the current top ten ranked midfielders have scored at least ten more points than Mahrez. Only two are more expensive and three are more than 4.0 cheaper than the Algerian – a major issue when considering a Gameweek 6 move to bring back Sergio Aguero is taken into account.
By then, Leicester will be embarking on a tough domestic run involving Man United, Chelsea and Spurs away and Southampton and Palace at the King Power – a group of matches that could conceivably result in three defeats for the champions.
Throw in the completely new experience of Champions League football and the weight of fatigue, pressure and expectation is threatening to combine and get the better of the reigning Player of the Year.
Tonight’s Champions League debut against Club Brugge may yet spark a revival in Mahrez’s confidence. His remaining owners will be looking on, hopeful for a chink of light – some hope that he may yet be the latest midfield heavy-hitter to breakthrough.
This weekend’s fixture – Burnley at home – would have been one of the reasons why Mahrez was in so many early-season FPL teams. If he were to blank again, it might well be the final straw for a majority of those managers, with Mahrez then facing unforgiving fixtures.
