Digest
20 September 2016 3197 comments
Mark Mark
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A Baggies attacker, a consistent Everton and a volatile market that’s showing the door to a goalscoring legend. We say goodbye to Gameweek 5 with a tale of the unexpected…

The Player

Immediately filed under “promising, must monitor”, Nacer Chadli was always going to be an interesting option once he’d made the move to West Brom.

An erratic Fantasy asset while at White Hart Lane, the Belgian nonetheless demonstrated the ability to spark to life in the box, raiding for goals and suddenly turning a forgettable average six out of ten performance, into a match-winning display.

That wasn’t the case in Gameweek 5.

On Saturday, the Baggies record signing carried the game to West Ham from the kick-off; Chadli single-handedly transformed West Brom from a ponderous, impotent attacking force to a team that bristled with threat.

His two goals and two assists have immediately brought him to the attention of the masses but, distracted by leading lights elsewhere, he’s yet to register the transfer interest Saturday’s points tally deserves.

We still have reservations. It’s still difficult to trust West Brom’s potential to score goals: we can hardly make a judgement based on a single performance against a beleaguered Hammers defence.

But with penalty duties unexpectedly tucked away in his locker, Chadli is clearly alive and back in the game.

Another handy mid-price candidate to call upon once West Brom’s schedule softens.

The Team

Five Gameweeks in and Everton’s recognition as a Fantasy force is already long overdue.

While Everton barely had to break into their third gear to see off Middlesbrough, it’s clear that they have become a very different proposition under Ronald Koeman. The Dutchman has revived their Fantasy assets.

We’ve already dwelt on the appeal of Romelu Lukaku.

While we remain wary of a player that has teased us for so long, his displays and output thus far have given us every reason to believe that we will see him make another stride towards genuine heavy-hitter status. A true challenge for the Golden Boot is on – 25 goals perhaps a realistic target.

But the supporting cast also warrants attention.

At the back, Seamus Coleman’s fine opener against ‘Boro was his reminder of his six-goal season back in 2013/14.

While we’re willing Leighton Baines to rediscover his returns from bygone years, Coleman has the legs on the left-back and could yet emerge as the stronger option.

Then we add Ashley Williams – a statistical monster who can potentially offer an even cheaper route into covering Everton’s new level of resilience.

In midfield, Koeman has added Yannick Bolasie on the right and appears to be investing faith in Kevin Mirallas on the opposite flank.

Both have the talent to provide us with mid-price options – particularly for those who still baulk at the concept of Ross Barkley following Lukaku’s lead in shaking off his frustrating inconsistencies.

The Talking Point

The mighty really are falling.

Eden Hazard’s price has tumbled 0.2 in the space of 48 hours with thousands of owners panicked at his meagre returns with Manchester City’s midfield assets sparkling.

Three points over his last two Gameweeks, plus an alarming decline in his underlying numbers, has provided the catalyst for what some would describe as a knee jerk reaction.

Last season’s decline will have also spooked some – we’ve seen how severely Hazard can regress; three encouraging Gameweeks has clearly not been enough to win back our trust.

Zlatan Ibrahimovic is close to mirroring Hazard’s sudden collapse.

Triggered by Manchester United’s current malaise and Sergio Aguero’s return, Ibrahimovic is being mercilessly shown the door at pace, despite returning a goal or an assist in four of his five Gameweeks.

It fits the profile of the season discussed in last week’s ScoutCast.

The transfer activity of the last ten days is typical of a campaign that will see heavy-hitters frequently slide in and out of favour.

Last season we sat on the likes of Riyad Mahrez, Jamie Vardy and Dele Alli because they provided such value: we were wary of selling them and absorbing a big cash loss and, given their price and a lack of alternatives, we could afford to sit tight.

With big funds tied up in both Hazard and Ibrahimovic, this is not the case. FPL managers will feel compelled to act quickly, driven by a market where every 0.1 counts.

The money tied up in failing heavy-hitters can be used to carry out significant surgery, or to move to the next big name edging into form and rising in price. There’s been a constant supply of those so far.

Regardless of the trend, many will sit still, discounting toughening fixtures for both Hazard and Ibrahimovic, backing them to punish the fickle amongst us.

It remains to be seen who will win out. But one thing is certain: the short-lived shelf life of the big hitters is already making for a fascinating season.

Mark Mark created the beast. He's now looking to tame it.

  1. SKH
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    Best striker under 8M?

    1. Respect My Authoritah
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      Janssen probably now

  2. Forjaz
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    So, just to check.

    Rashford as a two week punt is a no, right?

    1. Respect My Authoritah
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      Not for me - quite a few nailed on, on pens options with good fixtures at the same price

    2. PvA
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      2 weeks maybe, still a big risk

  3. temo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    On WC:
    Long term
    A Firmino+Benteke +0.4 to upgrade def
    B Antonio + Lukaku

    1. n-doggg
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      Find a way to get firm and Lukaku!

      1. temo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        9 years, 2 months ago

        Then I have to ditch Costa, Sterling or Sanchez. Not very temted. If I ditch Costa, who is best replacenment under 8.6?

    2. Respect My Authoritah
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      Tough. I think B tbh - Antonio beats Firmino for now, and Lukaku beats Benteke

  4. dando89
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    RMT for this week (Wildcard) 0.0 ITB

    Jaku
    Dann Baines McAuley
    Capoue Fimino De Bruyne Sanchez Antonio
    Kun Lukaku

    Pickford Diomande Kingsley Mariappa

    I keep changing things around - this time gone all out on the mid field have have I messed up the balance here?

  5. thegameisstrong
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    WC week. This team is good to go? I'm wary about having 3 Watford players, but their schedule is so good.

    Pickford
    Walker Fuchs Coleman
    Sanchez Sterling Firmino Snodgrass Capoue
    Aguero Lukaku

    Jakupovic Deeney Holebas Amat

  6. James LeBron
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    A)Pickford - Marney - Costa
    B)Cech - Snoddy - Deeney - 0.7

    1. KUNingas
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      Also thinking should I go Pickford or Cech

    2. Arteta
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      B

  7. Jafooli
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    Northampton Town vs Man Utd predictions?

    I'm going for 4-0 to MK Dons

  8. pedro1979
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    Long time lurker, first time poster... i've hit the WC button this week, any thoughts on this? I've changed it so many times its doing my nut in...

    Pick Jaku
    Williams Holebas Walker Evans Amat
    Antonio Sanchez Sterling Firm Carrick
    Deeney Kun Lukaku

    Cheers all!

    1. pedro1979
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      Bump...

  9. Ian Davis
    • 15 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    A) Williams / Walker

    B) Williams / Koscielny

    C) Coleman / Valencia

    D) Baines / Valencia

    1. Respect My Authoritah
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      C or Fuchs over Valencia

    2. KUNingas
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      A

  10. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    1. Best 5mil defender?

    2. Best 3 attacking players (not including Kun)?

    1. Eze Really?
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      Lovren/Williams/PVA

      Sanchez KDB Firmino

  11. Eze Really?
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    Who are the must have players for the next 10 weeks?

    (Sterling KDB) Kun Firmino Sanchez Ibra Lukaku.

    I want KDB Sanchez Kun and Firmino.

  12. Bedknobs and Boomsticks
    • 16 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    Things to do before finalizing my WC:
    1. Check that the Watford striker everyone's suddenly obsessed with has better attacking stats than, say, Gareth Barry

    1. mrtopisto
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      Absolutely. Rondón has a better price with same/better overall stats

      1. Respect My Authoritah
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 2 months ago

        But WBA. But yeah, not feeling Deeney tbh. Watford seem like they perform when least expected. Not great for us, hoping for returns from "easier" fixtures

    2. Give The Todd Some Love
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      Watford have had the hardest fixtures in the league so far

      1. Give The Todd Some Love
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 2 months ago

        Ighalo is my pick though

  13. Jafooli
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    Jakupoivc should keep his place right?

    1. Respect My Authoritah
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      Maybe. He has made an error in the first or second game I think.

      Marshall is a better keeper, but Phelan seems to be sticking with what's working, so it's his place to lose.

      Surely Pickford is the better option though

      1. Jafooli
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 2 months ago

        Yeah true, but that's a FT I don't have.....

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      Yes

  14. rozzo
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    Lost in the depths of the last page.

    Already taken a 4 point hit this week

    Heaton
    Shaw Stones Friend
    KDB Hazard Firmino Antonio Capoue
    Aguero Costa

    Jakupovic Diomande Amat Love

    0.5 itb

    Anything else worth a hit for this week? Also would you rather downgrade the defence in the coming weeks and upgrade Hazard to Sanchez or upgrade the defence and downgrade Hazard to Sterling/Payet etc? Thanks

  15. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    Also, anyone considering Fer??

    1. makaveli123
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      No

  16. LewanGOALski
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    which WC team:

    (1)
    Heaton – Pickford
    BAINES - LOVREN - Holebas – Kone – Amat
    Sanchez – Firmino - STERLING - ANTONIO - Capoue
    Aguero – Lukaku – Deeney

    (2)
    Heaton – Pickford
    WALKER - A.WILLIAMS - Holebas – Kone – Amat
    Sanchez – Firmino - PAYET - SNODGRASS - Capoue
    Aguero – Lukaku – Deeney

    ??

    1. Joggers Nipple
      • 16 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      1.
      But still wouldnt pick Lovren

    2. Bedknobs and Boomsticks
      • 16 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      1.

    3. makaveli123
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      (1)
      What about doing Kone -> Evans? Unless you like doubling up on Sunderland.

    4. KUNingas
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      Walker, Baines, Sterling, Snodgrass

    5. LarryJunior
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      B:
      In long term I`m quite sure Payet will outscore Antonio by enough to justify the price-dic
      .
      After the next to games Snodgrass has a great run of fixtures, and he seems to be steady either the opponents are strong or weak - also on set-pieces, penalties (?)..

      Sterling has been outstanding and is one of Peps favorites, but he will be rotated as soon as Nolito and Sane is back to full fitness. For the two next games Sterling is nailed (due Nolito and also Silva out), but after that -expect him to be benched often against weak opponents in the PL, also one of those he will rest towards the end of the games already won...

  17. Jafooli
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    Getting rid of Zlatan (at 60% ownership) seems a bit nuts at this stage in the season?

    1. Cecil The Lion
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      Correct. But he only became popular on here when Kun got suspended and he got his brace against Southampton

      1. _Freddo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        9 years, 2 months ago

        That's not true, both Aguero and Zlatan were 50% owned the weekend Aguero got his elbow out.

        1. Cecil The Lion
          • 9 Years
          9 years, 2 months ago

          You get a +1 for not reading my post properly lol. I agree it's crazy to get rid.

          1. _Freddo
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 16 Years
            9 years, 2 months ago

            You get a -1 for not writing it out properly.

            1. Cecil The Lion
              • 9 Years
              9 years, 2 months ago

              You're lovely.

      2. _Freddo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        9 years, 2 months ago

        Unless 50% ownership is not seen as being popular.

        1. Cecil The Lion
          • 9 Years
          9 years, 2 months ago

          *on here

          1. _Freddo
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 16 Years
            9 years, 2 months ago

            * the game as 3m players in, it's not won or lost on here.

            1. Cecil The Lion
              • 9 Years
              9 years, 2 months ago

              OK, you are a bit psychotic. I wasn't commenting on the whole game. Just making an observation that those getting rid probably got him in reluctantly in the first place.

            2. PvA
              • 9 Years
              9 years, 2 months ago

              Yes yes this. Coutinho is not popular on here but he is in the 4m that play. Opposite with Firmino, he is popular here but not in the 4m

    2. Joggers Nipple
      • 16 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      It does, two home games coming up too. Totally agree though Manu have been gash.

      1. Jafooli
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 2 months ago

        Yeah that seems to be the issue.....but on his day Ibra can bang in three.....tonight, if he plays (which I doubt) will be interesting....

        1. Joggers Nipple
          • 16 Years
          9 years, 2 months ago

          Im holding. in 2 weeks time? then will see

          1. Jafooli
            • 13 Years
            9 years, 2 months ago

            Yup, think I'll do the same.....

    3. rozzo
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      I am confident he isn't going to go nuts with that midfield behind him. He will get points for sure but not 12m worth of points

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 9 Years
        9 years, 2 months ago

        this

    4. boc610
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      agree, the tears on here when he scores at the weekend could fill the nile

    5. Hibbo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      Good luck to them.

      People seem to have solid justification for selling the highest scoring striker in the game.

    6. Jafooli
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      So in general, going on these replies, the opinion is keep Ibra....

      1. Cecil The Lion
        • 9 Years
        9 years, 2 months ago

        Yes!

    7. PvA
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      He no nuts, he crazy

    8. makaveli123
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      Plenty of options this season. People like to invest in a heavy mdifield.

  18. James LeBron
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    De Bruyne vs Sanchez

    1. Cecil The Lion
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      KDB

    2. McQueen
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      Sanchez if you have Kun. KDB wasn't as effective when Kun is playing. So spread the love. 😉

  19. Cecil The Lion
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    a) Cech + Deeney
    b) Foster + Janssen

    Cheers 😀

    1. PvA
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      A

    2. PvA
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      Actually B) Foster + Deeney

      1. PvA
        • 9 Years
        9 years, 2 months ago

        C*

      2. Cecil The Lion
        • 9 Years
        9 years, 2 months ago

        Thanks

  20. Thoughtopsy
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    RMT please (wildcard used) would you change anyone or is there anyone I have missed thats a better option like chadli?

    Foster
    Walker, Baines, Coleman
    Coutiniho, Antonio, capoue, sterling
    Aguero, deeney, lukaku

    Jaku, cazola, collins, amat

    1. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      Can you get Firmino over Court?

    2. Joggers Nipple
      • 16 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      Collins may not play
      Go one of Baines/ Coleman not both
      Mane or Fim over Cout

  21. Jafooli
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    Is there any 4.1m mids?

    1. Cecil The Lion
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      Nah

    2. PvA
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      Carrick is 4.3m

    3. Jafooli
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      Cheers both...

  22. Phil Dagger ⭐
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    what is worse

    a 0.2 loss on a player or

    taking -4 or -8 hit for that player to replace him with players that will will most likely pay off that hit

    1. Cecil The Lion
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      What's the scenario?

      1. Phil Dagger ⭐
        • 9 Years
        9 years, 2 months ago

        ozil to Sanchez or kdb

        or ozil and cazorla to firmino coutinho or mane payet (any two of them)

        1. Cecil The Lion
          • 9 Years
          9 years, 2 months ago

          First option seems good enough

          1. Phil Dagger ⭐
            • 9 Years
            9 years, 2 months ago

            have to take two hits though ....is it worth it ??? and who to replace him with Sanchez or KDB

            1. Cecil The Lion
              • 9 Years
              9 years, 2 months ago

              How about just Ozil to Payet so it's only 1 hit?

              1. Phil Dagger ⭐
                • 9 Years
                9 years, 2 months ago

                payet (i already have antonio) over firmino or mane????

                1. Cecil The Lion
                  • 9 Years
                  9 years, 2 months ago

                  Yes as crazy as it might sound

                  1. Phil Dagger ⭐
                    • 9 Years
                    9 years, 2 months ago

                    OK really thanks Cecil 😀

    2. PvA
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      .2

  23. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    Is Deeney+Kingsley > Rondon+Holebas worth a change?

    Current WC team:

    Jaku, Pick
    Williams, Walker, McAuley, Amat, Kingsley
    Firmino, Sanchez, Snodgrass, KDB, Capoue
    Kun, Lukaku, Deeney

    Thanks 🙂

    1. Respect My Authoritah
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      Lots of ways to generate cash in this team - Capoue to 4.4, McAuley to 4.5/4.5. Wouldn't go lower than Deeney's price for a 3rd striker

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 9 Years
        9 years, 2 months ago

        What do you think needs improving mate? Kingsley to Holebas?

    2. KUNingas
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      Nice! I have Sterling instead of KDB and thats why Kingley -> Lovren

  24. SKH
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    Best 3 forwards options for GW6? (Do not include Ibra)

    1. Respect My Authoritah
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      Aguero Sturridge Lukaku

      1. SKH
        • 9 Years
        9 years, 2 months ago

        How do you rate Benteke at this point?

        1. Respect My Authoritah
          • 11 Years
          9 years, 2 months ago

          Decent option. I'd have him if I could afford him. But then if I could, I'd probably stretch to Janssen @7.8

    2. PvA
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      Wait for Scout picks

      1. SKH
        • 9 Years
        9 years, 2 months ago

        When is that?

        1. PvA
          • 9 Years
          9 years, 2 months ago

          I have no idea tbh lol

          You could make a post asking others

  25. Stockport Hatter
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    I have already taken a 4 point hit to get Aguero back this week. What should I do / would you do, over the next couple of weeks with this. :-

    Heaton (Jak)

    McAuley Williams Shaw (Smith, Amat)

    Capoue Sanchez Firmino Antonio (Barkley)

    Lukaku Benteke Aguero

    Is there anyone worth taking a -8 for?

    1. MACHINIST
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      How are Barkleys underlying stats?

      1. Stockport Hatter
        • 9 Years
        9 years, 2 months ago

        he is just frustrating as heck in FPL lol. Screwed me over last season and is doing the same this!

    2. Eze Really?
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      I did getting Sanchez Firmino for Ozil Hazard.

      1. Stockport Hatter
        • 9 Years
        9 years, 2 months ago

        I want to lose Barkley soon, but feel some surgery needs doing on that backline also.

        Played WC already, and have .2 in the bank.

        1. Eze Really?
          • 11 Years
          9 years, 2 months ago

          Get a penalty taker (Snodders, Chadli) and have some spare cash

          1. Stockport Hatter
            • 9 Years
            9 years, 2 months ago

            Yes but is it worth a -8 this week or just wait for next running with what I have?

            As an Evertonian, is it the right thing to do binning Barkley?

            1. Eze Really?
              • 11 Years
              9 years, 2 months ago

              Barkley is like so many FPL picks. He will flatter to deceive. I have never rated him. They say he is still young. Rubbish!

  26. razmo
    • 16 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    Hi All....below is my current team for this week. It has started quite well (286 points)

    I already did Ibra > Aguero. I have 0 in the bank and still have one free transfer this week. Do I:

    a) Hazard > Mane (Free)
    b) Hazard and Negredo > Mane and Deeney (4 point hit)
    c) Wildcard because im really not that happy with my defence particularly.

    Forster (Jaku)
    Baines Evans Stones (Shaw, Friend)
    Townsend Redmond Ozil Hazard (Janazaj)
    Negredo Aguero Lukaku

    Many thanks!!

  27. Louis Van Gaalstones
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    Considering a -4 for Puncheon >> Sterling or Firminho, thoughts?

    Foster, Heaton
    Van Aanholt, Davies, Holebas, Gibson, Evans
    Mane, Sanchez, Capoue, Chadli, Puncheon
    Ibra, Llorente, Lukaku

    1. Louis Van Gaalstones
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      Oh 4.1 itb too

    2. Eze Really?
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      Dangerous having no City cover.

  28. PvA
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    Fair play to Carrick

    Been left out of the side completely and I've not heard a word from him

    Mind you, if I was getting paid thousands of pounds a week to just train I wouldn't say anything neither

    1. makaveli123
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      Can't understand why he hasn't played.

    2. Cecil The Lion
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      Some reckon he's the mole

  29. arndff_
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    Hi, guys. I want to show you my current team:
    Foster Jakupovic
    Stones Shaw Baines van Aanholt Amat
    Antonio Ozil Barkley Capoue Lamela
    Lukaku Ibrahimovic Gray

    I'm wondering if it's good to play wildcard. But isn't it too early? Here are the transfers (player's names are written with upper letters) I considered:
    Foster Jakupovic
    WALKER McAULEY KOSCIELNY Baines Amat
    COUTINHO SANCHEZ PUNCHEON Antonio Capoue
    AGUERO Lukaku Gray

    Total: 7 transfers
    Bank: £0.3

    What do you think about that? Is it too early, is it worth it, etc... I want to hear your advises. Thank you in advance, guys!

    1. PvA
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      I wouldn't keep Gray if you WC, nor would I bench Capoue on a WC

      1. arndff_
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 2 months ago

        OK, who can I buy instead of him?

    2. Eze Really?
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      No Gray and I prefer Firrmino as most others do.

  30. makaveli123
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    RMT before WC: 316.11
    RMT after WC: 316.23

    1. Respect My Authoritah
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      Gains

    2. PvA
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      My score was actually lower lol

      I think it's just a guide more than anything. Almost impossible to predict what happens