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12 October 2017 1541 comments
Paul Paul
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Our next members’ article of the week starts a series of pieces based on our expected goals (xG) data, which is scheduled to be available from Monday.

In this first analysis article, we take time out to assess the two most popular forwards in Fantasy Premier League, Romelu Lukaku and Harry Kane, checking out their numbers both home and away over the first seven Gameweeks.

Both had had somewhat contrasting starts to the season.

Lukaku has settled in seamlessly up front for the Red Devils, scoring in all but one of his seven outings.

Whereas both of his double-digit returns have arrived at Old Trafford, all three of Kane’s were delivered on the road.

The Spurs striker has bagged two goals in each of his last trio of road trips but has yet to find the net at his temporary home, Wembley Stadium.

We take a close look at the data now to get a better idea of how they should be performing in accordance with the expected goals (xG) and expected assist (xA) statistics.

We have also added in our own new metric, expected goal involvement (xGI) to incorporate both goals and assists so far.

If you are new to the notion of expected goals, here’s a of handy explanation from the guys at OptaJoe.

Paul Is certain he won't make the same mistakes next season. Follow them on Twitter

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  1. TorresMagic™
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Impressive article.

    1. Syd.
      9 years, 21 days ago

      That’s what she said

  2. Judas
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Final wildcard decisions!

    A: Lukaku + Salah + Sterling
    B: Vardy + Hazard + Silva + £1.4 ITB

    (The £1.4 could be used to upgrade defence or my 4th MID)

    1. jimmy.floyd
      9 years, 21 days ago

      B

    2. Pooodle
      9 years, 21 days ago

      A

      1. The Head-Ake
        9 years, 21 days ago

        B

  3. VIRATKOHLI18
    9 years, 21 days ago

    PRMWCT

    Elliot Joel
    Alonso Davies Mee Tarkowski Ward
    Siggy Sanchez KDB Choupu RLC
    Kane Lendopo Vardy

    1. VIRATKOHLI18
      9 years, 21 days ago

      TM- I ll play only Mee in tougher burnley games

      1. jimmy.floyd
        9 years, 21 days ago

        Still too many Burnley defender s

      2. TorresMagic™
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        9 years, 21 days ago

        Why Mee over the other 2? Hoping for a goal?

        1. VIRATKOHLI18
          9 years, 21 days ago

          yea!

          1. TorresMagic™
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            9 years, 21 days ago

            Rather double and find someone with good rotation.

    2. The Knights Template
      9 years, 21 days ago

      like the siggy punt, you might be ahead of the curve.

    3. Harper_
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Defence looks too weak for a 4-4-2

    4. Krionos
      9 years, 21 days ago

      I wouldn't invest that much in midfield in a season where there is so much value in defense and attack...

      That team would require major surgery if you wanted to switch funds or change formation..

      1. Harper_
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        9 years, 21 days ago

        what value is there in attack?

    5. Pooodle
      9 years, 21 days ago

      You're not seriously going triple Burnley defence I hope.

    6. Bergkampgoal
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Interesting team. Different, but maybe a bit too clever for me.

      Would consider Sterling + Walker over KdB + one of the Burnley defs in this setup.

  4. Cooper123
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Lost on the last post Throwing my WC team out there.

    Fabianski // Elliot

    Davies // Jones // Maguire // Ward // Mbemba

    Salah // Silva // Sterling // Richarlison // RLC

    Kane // Jesus // Vardy

    * Think Maguire is the best 5m-ish defender over Cedric and Cresswell, with those attacking returns and long-term fixtures
    * Don't understand the hype for Coutinho over Salah, the guy is basically a striker. Coutinho is more complete but I don't see Salah's output slowing.
    * Going with triple City attack for now, Jesus will go for Morata and will assess Sterling going forward.

    Any thoughts? What would you change?

    1. Harper_
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 years, 21 days ago

      I like it, but surely you still have money left over? defence looks light

      1. Cooper123
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        9 years, 21 days ago

        Nothing in the bank. It's light compared with heavy backlines that are popular this season but pretty normal distribution otherwise. Could drop Sterling for Choupo or Fabregas and bring in Luiz at the back but don't think that improves it.

        1. Harper_
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          9 years, 21 days ago

          I think Chelsea defence could be quite important

    2. Pooodle
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Sign up as a member, read the article above, and get in Lukaku.

    3. red forever
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Triple city attack is just asking to get pepped

    4. Poetry in motion
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Same WC team as mine, but I have Yoshi for Maguire, still wondering between Yoshi and Cedric.

  5. jimmy.floyd
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Ditch Bailly or Kolasinac?

    1. makaveli123
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Bailly if Kolasinac is fit.

    2. Lone Wolf
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Kola may play and you probably have someone on the bench if he wont but keep probably imo

      1. jimmy.floyd
        9 years, 21 days ago

        Duffy

    3. Ambrosiana Inter
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Both

      1. jimmy.floyd
        9 years, 21 days ago

        Only one ft

  6. Lone Wolf
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Who would you go

    a) Monreal, Hazard, Choupo
    b) Azpi, Sterling, Fabregas

    1. jimmy.floyd
      9 years, 21 days ago

      B

    2. The Knights Template
      9 years, 21 days ago

      a

    3. We Will Klopp you
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Provided you have 2 other solid captaincy picks then B, if not, A

  7. fish66
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    9 years, 21 days ago

    (A) Firmino & Mkhi -> Vardy & Sterling -4
    (B) Firmino & Mkhi -> Vardy & Sane -4
    (C) Anything else

    1. jimmy.floyd
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Save

    2. Judas
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Sterling

    3. The Knights Template
      9 years, 21 days ago

      mkhi to sterling

      1. Lone Wolf
        9 years, 21 days ago

        this

  8. Donster
    9 years, 21 days ago

    is this good to go? -4
    Firmino and Stephens out
    DCL and Sterling in

    1. Judas
      9 years, 21 days ago

      naa balls to calvert lewin

    2. The Knights Template
      9 years, 21 days ago

      niasse

  9. Smurf
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Jesus likely to rise by tomorrow night?

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      9 years, 21 days ago

      95 now so could be tonight.

      1. Smurf
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        9 years, 21 days ago

        Ah right. I noticed he was on 95 but wasn't sure how fast that was moving. Tonight would be great.

        Cheers TM.

      2. TheBusDriver
        9 years, 21 days ago

        Great. 0.1m profit. Now to decide whether I keep him or not.

        1. Smurf
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          9 years, 21 days ago

          I'm ditching. But for Vardy, who's price rise I missed 🙁

          1. TheBusDriver
            9 years, 21 days ago

            I missed his price rise too 😥

    2. Pooodle
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Sterling going up too - my planned transfers are Sterling and Jesus in but wanted to wait for Pep's press conference tomorrow having missed all of the previous rises, but missing out on a further 2 rises would be a killer... Tricky.

      1. Smurf
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        9 years, 21 days ago

        I'd personally make the moves. Or at least the Sterling move.

        1. Pooodle
          9 years, 21 days ago

          Yeah think I will do. The only risk is if one of Sterling or Jesus has picked up a training injury that hasn't been reported but that must be pretty unlikely. Can't see Aguero starting tomorrow in any event.

    3. Don Van Vliet
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Not until Easter.

  10. beetlejuice
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Which game will you be watching among City, Chelsea and Spurs?

    1. The Knights Template
      9 years, 21 days ago

      spurs

    2. badgerboy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Burnley Vs West Ham

      Ben Mee watch.

    3. Pork Pie Sausage Roll
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Respectively I'm going to have 3, 2 and 2(inc captain) playing, but I think the Chelsea game will be the most satisfying if my guys do well, so I'll watch that

  11. TheBusDriver
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Great article.

    1. We Will Klopp you
      9 years, 21 days ago

      This

  12. Lone Wolf
    9 years, 21 days ago

    How about Rashford guys?

    1. The Knights Template
      9 years, 21 days ago

      no thanks

    2. Doosra - ☭BowenOfRice☭
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 years, 21 days ago

      He's my third striker. To be Welbeck, GW10.

      1. Lone Wolf
        9 years, 21 days ago

        he looks nailed-ish and great value but those fixtures puts me off

      2. TheBusDriver
        9 years, 21 days ago

        Wow 😀

        Need to choose 2 from Jesus, Lukaku and Vardy. What do you thnink?

        1. Doosra - ☭BowenOfRice☭
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          9 years, 21 days ago

          Jesus and Vardy. I have Kane and Vardy.

      3. JÆKS ⭐
        9 years, 21 days ago

        He's not going to start with Lacazette Ozil Sanchez all fit

        1. Doosra - ☭BowenOfRice☭
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          9 years, 21 days ago

          We'll see about that. 🙂

  13. Pooodle
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Great article.

    The xG stats are key - I've been saying for a while that I don't understand why everyone on here thinks Kane is such a better option than Lukaku, particularly based on the number of their big chances where Lukaku has had almost double the number that Kane has had. To me that shows that Lukaku is scoring at a more sustainable rate and will continue to score well.

    Bottom line, get both but certainly don't be ditching Lukaku.

    1. The Knights Template
      9 years, 21 days ago

      spot on

      1. Pooodle
        9 years, 21 days ago

        I particularly don't understand the obsession with saying Kane's stats are peerless because of the total number of shots he's having. The quality of shots is so much more important than the number of shots.

    2. Pierce34
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Even without the xG stats, it's only logical to assume that someone who scored 25 goals for Everton last year is likely to score 30+ with better team-mates feeding him.

    3. We Will Klopp you
      9 years, 21 days ago

      i'm with you, few other picks in the game carry the reliability of captaincy that Kane & Lukaku offer

      1. Pooodle
        9 years, 21 days ago

        Agreed on the captaincy. People are complaining about Lukaku being not explosive enough but I think if you said at the start of the season that every week your captain would get 6-9 points you'd be delighted.

    4. AllanM
      9 years, 21 days ago

      If you haven't seen these stats before they should highlight another premium striker.

    5. I Member
      9 years, 21 days ago

      xG doesn't take into account that Kane is a better finisher and player than Lukaku. I recall reading on here that Kane significantly outperformed his xG in the last two seasons and the fact that he's doing it again makes me think it's not a coincidence. He's simply a great goalscorer.

      1. Ramboros
        9 years, 21 days ago

        Kane has scored 9.18, 2.27 and 3.82 goals above xG the last 3 seasons.

        1. Pooodle
          9 years, 21 days ago

          So last year he'd score 0.1 more goals every week than expected - but this year he's over double that, which does suggest some regression based on the quality of the chances he's had so far.

        2. Johqvist
          9 years, 21 days ago

          This. The xG is great but it doesn't take into account the some are better at finishing than others.

    6. Ramboros
      9 years, 21 days ago

      The xG + xA of Agüero is higher than the xG + xA of Lukaku. That's with Lukaku taking a penalty and Agüero playing fewer minutes.

      In fact it's insane the confirmation bias people have when they conclude that Kane's and Lukaku's performances are representative of their expected performances for the rest of the season, while the better performing Morata and Agüero are somehow supposed to be over performing.

      1. Pooodle
        9 years, 21 days ago

        I think people were burned by Aguero's rotation last year so are finding ways to keep him out of their team. He's definitely as good a player and finisher as both Kane and Lukaku.

        Morata is a bit more unknown because he hasn't had a season as the undisputed first choice forward ever before.

  14. Brosstan
    9 years, 21 days ago

    RMT (wildcard)
    Foster/Elliot
    Otamendi - Monreal - Davies - Ward - Clark
    Hazard - Sterling - Eriksen - Choupo - RLC
    Kane - Jesus - Crouch

    1. The Knights Template
      9 years, 21 days ago

      wouldn't get foster on wc

      1. Brosstan
        9 years, 21 days ago

        Oh yea totally, I have Fabianski, wrote down the wrong keeper!

        1. The Head-Ake
          9 years, 21 days ago

          Lovely team! Quite similar to mine except 3 picks

  15. We Will Klopp you
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Did anyone else feel the article was a bit short?

    1. Hy liverpool
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Lol

    2. The Knights Template
      9 years, 21 days ago

      not really

    3. TheBusDriver
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Memberism

    4. Lone Wolf
      9 years, 21 days ago

      🙂

  16. Krafty Werks
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Can't decide which of these two WC teams looks best? Both offer different strengths/weaknesses, which do you think looks best? Any thoughts much appreciated, thanks :

    Team A (more differentials, very versatile...any formation) :

    Fabianski (Elliot)
    Bavies, VAN DIJK, Stones, Maguire (Ward)
    Hazard, Sterling, RAMSEY, Gross (Choupo-Moting)
    Kane, Jesus (JOSELU).

    Team B (mainly 4-3-3 but possible 3-4-3 occasionally)

    Fabianski (Elliot)
    Bavies, CEDRIC, Stones, Maguire (Ward)
    Hazard, Sterling, Gross (Choupo-Moting, RLC)
    Kane, Jesus, VARDY.

    1. We Will Klopp you
      9 years, 21 days ago

      B

  17. jimmy.floyd
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Bailly to Maguire?

  18. Hy liverpool
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Best one options here guys ?

    A. Rooney and Luk to Jesus and Vardy

    B. Rooney and Alli to sane/Sterling and Vardy

    C. Rooney and Kola to Vardy and Cedric/Maguire

    1. jimmy.floyd
      9 years, 21 days ago

      C

    2. Pooodle
      9 years, 21 days ago

      C

    3. The Knights Template
      9 years, 21 days ago

      c

    4. We Will Klopp you
      9 years, 21 days ago

      C

  19. Sickboy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Really enjoyed this article, cheers.

  20. Blues Cruise
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Atsu nailed on to start?

  21. FPL Kangaroo
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Love this !

  22. tibollom
    9 years, 21 days ago

    final decision chaps

    2FT -

    a. Miki for Silva/sterling/sane and keep 1 FT
    b. Miki + Jones for Sterling + Bavies

    Foster
    Jones Bertrand Mee Naughton
    Miki Eriksen Ritchie
    Kaku Kane Jesus

    1. Sweetboi
      9 years, 21 days ago

      A. Definitely wouldn't get rid of Jones, even with their fixtures.

  23. Sweetboi
    9 years, 21 days ago

    RMWCT Please Lads:

    Elliot Joel
    Davies Jones Cedric Ward Fernandez
    Sterling Sane Choupo Eriksen RLC
    Kane Jesus Vardy

    1. william prunier
      9 years, 21 days ago

      8.1

  24. Sterling Chap
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Hi guys, Mkhi > Sterling (For free). Yay or nay?

    Although I do have Atsu and Kola flagged

    Elliot(Nordfelt)
    Davies Kola* Naughton Otamendi (Mbemba)
    Mkhi Silva Atsu* (Carroll King)
    Laca Kane Lukaku
    1.3ITB / 1FT

  25. The Head-Ake
    9 years, 21 days ago

    1) Richarlison, Otamendi and 5.0 striker
    2) Cork, Azpi and Joselu

    Which one and why? Thanks 🙂

    1. We Will Klopp you
      9 years, 21 days ago

      1, Joselu seems to be a tadic but Richarlison has actually shown the potential to be a very good option going forward.

    2. Blues Cruise
      9 years, 21 days ago

      1

      1. The Head-Ake
        9 years, 21 days ago

        IDK why but 2 convinces me more

  26. Teror
    9 years, 21 days ago

    KdB >

    A. Sterling

    B. Silva

    C. Hold

    https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/team/420916/event/7

    1. Sweetboi
      9 years, 21 days ago

      C

    2. My Name Is Pepu
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Ritchie to Richarlison

  27. camarozz
    9 years, 21 days ago

    So save ft?? Or shake it up a bit this week???

    Elliot,
    Jones, Cedric, Davies
    Ramsey, Antonio, Ritchie, Eriksen
    Lukaku, Vardy, kane (c)

    (ryan,Suttner, T.carrol, long)

    Also have my WC which is a first at this stage of season.

    1. Teror
      9 years, 21 days ago

      I would want to get rid of Ramsey and Antonio.

  28. My Name Is Pepu
    9 years, 21 days ago

    G2G lads?

    Elliot
    Ben Davies, Hegazi, Jones
    KDB, Silva, Atsu, Mkhitariyan, Salah
    Kane (c), Jesus

    1 FT, 0.7m in the bank.

    Thinking of saving FT this week, any suggestions?

  29. Blues Cruise
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Atsu
    Mbemba
    Dawson
    J. Ward
    Pick two!
    TIA

  30. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
    9 years, 21 days ago

    Stopped reading at the orange bit.

    1. Syd.
      9 years, 21 days ago

      Cheesy Wotsits

      1. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
        9 years, 21 days ago

        🙂 Jafooli's got a lot to answer for.