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1 December 2017 5 comments
Hutch_James Hutch_James
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Each week we review the aggregated predictions on Superbru’s Premier League Predictor game, using the collective Wisdom of the Crowd predictions to guide our fantasy football thinking.

Please join the FFS league here and add your own predictions to the data – the more there are, the more accurate the crowd should be (in theory).

GAMEWEEK 14 REVIEW

Tottenham feature once again at the top of the unpredictable results chart, with their defeat at Leicester predicted by just 6% of people.  Wins for Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City and Chelsea were easy to predict, but their starting lineups were not, much to the frustration of Fantasy managers everywhere, including this one.

Here are the Gameweek 14 results in descending order of predictability:

Well done to Johnny Mackey from the UK for winning the Yellow Cap in the FFS pool.

Mr Crowd Wisdom – using the aggregated predictions of the crowd – dropped slightly on the leaderboard (with Spurs letting the crowd down yet again) but remains well above average.

The aggregated predictions of the community are making better predictions than most individual players in the game, suggesting that there is credibility in the Wisdom of the Crowd concept.

GAMEWEEK 15 PREVIEW

Here is the Expected Goals chart for each fixture in GW15:

And here is the ranking of teams in order of Expected Goals Scored and Conceded:

Overall, the crowd is expecting fewer goals this weekend, with Manchester City bringing up the average significantly, and I had a quick look back at previous goal predictions for City.

In Gameweek 6, there was an average of 3.61 goals predicted for City versus Crystal Palace, and they scored five in that match.  In Gameweek 8, the crowd predicted 2.96 goals on average, and City scored  seven; in Gameweek 9, there were 3.36 goals predicted, and they ‘only’ managed 3. The average prediction this week is 3.29 goals, and Fantasy managers will be wondering how many they will score – and crucially of course, which players will score them.

Chelsea at home to Newcastle also looks profitable, with a rested Eden Hazard surely set to start, whilst the consistent Mohamed Salah could be a safe pick with Liverpool playing Brighton.

Manchester City and Chelsea are expected to keep clean sheets, whilst Stoke, Everton Liverpool and Leicester could offer good defensive options at kinder prices.

Here are the aggregated predictions that we’ll enter into the game for Mr Crowd Wisdom in the FFS pool.

The crowd is clearly keeping faith with Spurs, predicting them to win away at Watford, but whether Fantasy managers will stick by their faltering stars remains to be seen.

Is there anything else that catches your eye in these crowd predictions?

Don’t forget to join the FFS league on Superbru and make your predictions each week so that they are included in these data – the more knowledgeable people there are, the more accurate they should be in theory.

Good luck!

PS. Superbru is recruiting for a digital marketer with a passion for football and sport in general – have a look here if you know anyone that might be interested.

5 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 1 month ago

    Cheers for submitting. Another week with lots of good options for goals....that's as long as they make the team sheet 😉

  2. G-Whizz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 1 month ago

    Thank you! After a storming week with 6/10 nose dived hugely this week lol
    Hopefully can get my prediction cap back on!

  3. raoulduke71
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 1 month ago

    Captain?

    a)Kane
    b)Morata
    c)Salah
    d)Sane

  4. MTPockets
      8 years, 1 month ago

      Cheers. Want to captain Jesus but Pep.