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6 December 2017 1215 comments
Prokoptas Prokoptas
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Regular readers of the Technical Area articles will no doubt be familiar with expected goals (xG), a key metric introduced to the Fantasy Football Scout Members’ area this year as a means of estimating goal scoring returns on the basis of chance quality.

This week, however, we are flipping our focus to examine the top goalkeepers over this year’s campaign and to introduce, for the first time, our related keeper-specific metric: expected goals prevented (xGP).

In brief, this data tallies the quantity and quality of chances a goalkeeper is faced with, in order to calculate a baseline of their expected goals conceded. From this number, we subtract the true number of goals that have beaten each goalkeeper, in order to determine the expected goals they have personally deterred.

This week’s Technical Area will be running the rule over how FPL’s highest-owned goalkeepers have performed in this particular metric thus far.

We also take a wider view of the position as it now stands, in light of the recent uncertainty surrounding the pitch time of budget-friendly options such as Rob Elliot and Julian Speroni.

  1. Will Hazard be rested and if so when?
    Deano
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    So, with Hazard playing last night and on the weekend we can be assured he misses one game in the next two with Conte’s rotation policy.

    Which will it be?

    A. whu

    B. hud

    1. J0E
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      You would imagine it'd be the Hudd game given Che v Whu is still a thing to both clubs.

      1. Deano
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Agreed, leaves him fresh for Saints at home.

    2. Odikostar
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      hus if any, but don't think he will really

    3. GENERATION X
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      He had a rest v Swans and CL is now over - is it really necessary? He has said himself that he does not train with great intensity. Plus Hudd away ain't easy - ask Manchester...

    4. FPL ZB
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Haz tends to not get fully rotated, but comes off at 70 minutes A LOT

      1. GENERATION X
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Yeah - I think we would take 70 per game all day long. Also missed a full preseason and the start of it, but I'm aware the issue is protection not burnout.

      2. Deano
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Spoken like a true Hazard owner. Unfortunately though, Conte has proven you wrong recently.

        1. GENERATION X
          • 12 Years
          8 years, 9 days ago

          ...in reply to a true Hazard non owner...

          1. Deano
            • 13 Years
            8 years, 9 days ago

            Prospective buyer, you should be encouraging me for the price rise.

            My reply was actually to Zouma by the way.

            1. GENERATION X
              • 12 Years
              8 years, 9 days ago

              Apologies. Price rise would be nice but I will only be selling if injured big time...

              1. Deano
                • 13 Years
                8 years, 9 days ago

                😉

    5. Podge
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      He had a rest 2 matches ago, wouldn’t expect another any time soon

    6. The Rumour Mill
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Hud. Wrote a little about this earlier:


      I think hazard might have his minutes managed, but it is a derby match of sorts and I think Conte will go with his strongest team. If he decides to rest any of his attackers completely I think it will be Morata who has played close to 90 minutes 4 times in the last 10 days. If Morata is rested I think Hazard will play as a centre forward flanked by Pedro and Willian, as I don't think Conte trusts Batshuyi, who is only just returning from injury anyway.

      If Hazard is taken off early, it will only be if the game is won, and if the game is won, then I think Hazard will have been involved. So I think its only a unique, low percentage set of circumstances in which Hazard can fail this weekend (famous last words there!).

      I do think Hazard will be benched next midweek v Huddersfield (GW17), as he was against Swansea last week though.

      1. Deano
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Congrats on a well researched and objective analysis.

        1. The Rumour Mill
          • 8 Years
          8 years, 9 days ago

          Cheers. I'll be captaining Hazard this weekend, and assuming my analysis is right, not captaining him v Hud. I actually think Kane comes back in as a great captaincy option for GW17 as he is least likely to be rested of the big hitters (Coutinho, Mane, Salah, Sane, Sterling, Aguero, Jesus, Morata), although we may be able to infer midweek starters from this weekends team sheets. Also anyone owning Sanchez or Ozil has a great option for GW17 captaincy, maybe even Ramsey or Kolasinac for the maverick!

          1. J0E
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 16 Years
            8 years, 9 days ago

            My thinking re gwk 17 too. That's a gwk where nailedonness is key.

            Sadly I'll probably be backing Kane to punish my team.

            1. GENERATION X
              • 12 Years
              8 years, 9 days ago

              Guess it depends if they react positively to the 1-5. Huddersfield should be a good place to get back on track.

              Think I may be giving D and D the night off though...

            2. The Rumour Mill
              • 8 Years
              8 years, 9 days ago

              Yeah I totally agree, I think it will be a repeat of GW14 in terms of heavy rotation. At least backing the striker against your beloved Brighton means either way you should be both happy and dissappointed lol. The worst scenario would be something like a spurs 1-0 win with an unassisted goal from Alli or something!

    7. Chenku╰☆╮
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      This is getting ridiculous now. Everyone can get rested.. haz had his rest and will play whm for sure. If u want a reason to captain someone else then please do.

    8. IRBOX ⚽
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Neither. Morata will be the one to be rested

    9. FFPro
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      So you are assuming he only plays 2 in 3 or 3 in 4 games now?

      He can play them all, realistically he will play something like 6 in 7

  2. Pep says
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Listen to 79thBonusEpi - Interview with FFScout HoF no.1 Jay Egersdorff by !Fantasy Football Surgery #np on #SoundCloud

    https://soundcloud.com/fantasyfootballsurgery/79thbonusepi

    This is worth a listen

    1. CloudSky
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      This is becoming an unhealthy obsession with Jay, Pep. It's what we in the business call "fplvirginitis".

      1. Football Weekender
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Full blown “fplvirginitis” requires a bizarre combination of endless fawning and trolling of the same person 😆

        1. CloudSky
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 9 days ago

          That would be stage 4. Uncurable. There is still hope for Pep though.

          1. Football Weekender
            • 9 Years
            8 years, 9 days ago

            If he starts using the phrase “... at our peril” then we know it’s escalating.

            1. CloudSky
              • 9 Years
              8 years, 9 days ago

              I agree. Will have to monitor.

    2. Old Wulfrunian
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Is really interesting the way he speaks shows that the simple and basic things(local press,fixtures,data etc) are the most important.

    3. Alex_thekid
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Don't like the theory of it wouldn't go near the likes of Jones Shaqiri etc injury risks it's 1 transfer Jones got me a shit load of points 6t7 clean sheets Shaqiri obviously a wildcard last int break has got me a couple of goals + assists what's your thoughts on this?

  3. Nubi
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Stupid question but who is DCL? 😀

    1. Leonard hatred
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Everton striker.

      DLC stands for Downloadable Content, you need to pay EA sports £20 to get him in FPL.

      1. Odikostar
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        +1

    2. J T
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Calvert Lewin

    3. I Member
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      I think you mean LCD. It stands for Liquid Crystal Display.

    4. Surfeit of Lampteys
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Deuterium chloride

    5. tafrère
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Dominic Calvert-Lewin.

    6. Bury94
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      It's also a taxi insurance company

    7. GENERATION X
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      It's Ruben's lesser known relative, Duben Cheek-Loftus

    8. JJO
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Its Dub Chipmonk Lingard

      1. Odikostar
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        +1

    9. Nubi
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      That escalated quickly 😀

      1. GENERATION X
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Bit of fun of course - Best_07 was right!

    10. Alex_thekid
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Ask a stupid question get stupid answers lol 😉

  4. Diamondgeezer
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Ready to explode!!!

    To find an edge in the captain picks I have analysed the chances of hitting a right pick each week.
    To do this I have selected midfielders or forward who have score 75 points or more this season (I left out defenders/goalkeepers as I never captain my defenders/goalkeepers). I also included Coutinho and Hazard as they have not had enough game time to score 75 but have scored big across the games they have played.
    I have classified an explosion as a double digit score.
    I have tried to take out games where players have had limited/no pitch time.

    Looking at my record for the season I have picked the right captain around 25% of the time. Not great record, if I had just captained Kane from gameweek 1 and left it on him I would have done better.
    The table at the bottom of the post give the best players to pick (when they are likely to start a game). The best two in the game so far this season are Sane and Coutinho with Salah a close 3rd. These 3 have hauled in about half the games they have played in. The next grouping of Hazard Kane and Morata haul in about a 3rd of their games.
    I would rule anyone below this out as a captain option unless they had a plum fixture or a big increase in form.
    Sane sits at the top of this list due to a streak he had of 5 hauls in 7 gameweeks, suggesting he form player and is best to pick when he starts scoring big again. Kane follows a similar pattern to this scoring big in a run of games and then going quite again.
    Salah is interesting as he is very up and down, scoring big 2 games in a row only once out of the 6 occasions he has hauled. Morata is similarly erratic with FPL scoring.
    Finally Coutinho and Hazard are harder to read as they have had less game time this season.

    The take away from this data is get Kane and Sane when they find some form and leave the captain on them for a few weeks.
    For Salah and Morata don't chase points after they have hauled, it is actually better to captain the week after the have not hauled as they will then be due a big week.
    Coutinho and Hazard are worth monitoring as they are risky for both game time, but if they get more game time it will become clearer if they are form players or erratic scorers.

    Name % of games played scoring 10 or above
    Sane 50%
    Coutinho 50%
    Salah 46%
    Hazard 38%
    Kane 36%
    Morata 30%
    Sterling 25%
    Aguero 20%
    Jesus 20%
    De Bruyne 20%
    Ramsey 15%
    D Silva 15%
    Richarlison 15%
    Lukaku 14%
    Grob 14%
    Mahrez 14%
    Eriksen 13%

    1. GXNG
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Captaincy isn't all about getting halls though. Anything about 4 points for me is a captain success.

      1. Diamondgeezer
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Thanks Doosra, combining the two tables could be a powerful tool. I will try and get my data on the members area too.

  5. We Will Klopp you
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Bravo rested

    1. Lone Wolf FPL
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      here, get that +1 😉

  6. Clifford☯
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    CITY XI | Ederson, Danilo, Mangala, Adarabioyo, Fernandinho (c), Foden, Yaya Toure, Gundogan, Bernardo, Sane, G Jesus

    1. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Looks like Ederson won't be playing GW16 then.

    2. Clifford☯
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      SUBS | Bravo, Walker, Sterling, Aguero, Otamendi, Duhaney, Diaz

    3. ZeBestee
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Starting Sane is not a smart decision from Pep

      1. Yozzer
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        You wouldn't think he would want to win the title this weekend.

        1. ZeBestee
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 9 days ago

          If he gets injured from a dead rubber then all of a sudden he has no other wing choice to replace him. With his tactical game a Mendy/ Sane is important to stretch opponents

  7. We Will Klopp you
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    What's your feel on RLC? Is he just the best 4.5m mid for the bench or someone potentially worth starting when he has a good fixture with a good chance of getting something?

    I ask this because I don't trust Bournemouth defensively or want to double up on Burnley v Richarlison, so might give RLC a shot.

    1. GENERATION X
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      My 4th mid - though was happier when he was playing as a 10 pre Zaha, less effective out wide. For this reason I will be going for a power 5 midfield over next few weeks...

      1. GENERATION X
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Very good 5th mid though if no budget for one..

    2. Odikostar
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Think he's a bench player as we're not in a massive need of extra funds this year, but he might get something against bournemouth

    3. shotgunnufc - MANIAC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      bench player generally but I would consider him in some fixtures

  8. We Will Klopp you
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Pope (*Elliott)
    Azpi Otamendi *Ward Dunk *Daniels
    Salah Sterling Hazard Richarlison RLC
    Kane Morata *Niasse

    Plan is: Daniels to Sakho -4 for this gw and Ward to Femenia free gw17. This will leave 0.3m itb for either switching out Elliott for a Palace keeper or to go towards the Heaton fund. Niasse can also be replaced with Crouch soon enough but that and the Elliott upgrade aren't a priority.

    A) Good plan
    B) Bad plan
    C) Would change some aspect of it (please state which)

    1. The Overthinker
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      I like Daniels to sakho.
      Doubling up on palace defender is not what I would ideally want . So heaton funds it is

      1. We Will Klopp you
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Cheers

    2. The Big Fella
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      B) because I think you should be a lot more conservative with points hits given your hit gamble a short while back. Can you not do Daniels to Kiko Femenia now and then use the difference in cash to do the keeper thing? Or just save a transfer.

    3. Red Dagger ✪
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      I like Daniels to Sakho... Hadn't thought about it before but it sounds tasty..

  9. Lone Wolf FPL
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Sterling, Ota, Kun rested
    Sane, Jesus starting

    1. Lone Wolf FPL
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      perfect

    2. Salah’s Sonnet
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      literally perfect 🙂

    3. We Will Klopp you
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Cheers, Sterling seeming more and more nailed now

    4. Sánchez
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Haha. Pep will then send out the same lineup against Man utd

  10. John t penguin
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    New article
    Find it yourself I ain't a guide dog

    1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Woof.

  11. We Will Klopp you
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Pope (*Elliott)
    Azpi Otamendi *Ward Dunk *Daniels
    Salah Sterling Hazard Richarlison RLC
    Kane Morata *Niasse

    Looking to get a few issues dealt with over the next couple of gws. I'm thinking that Burnley aren't keeping enough clean sheets to double up on them at present so want rid of Ward.

    Plan is: Daniels to Sakho -4 for this gw and Ward to Femenia free gw17. This will leave 0.3m itb for either switching out Elliott for a Palace keeper or to go towards the Heaton fund. Thoughts?

    1. aleksios
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Looks like solid plan.

    2. the snazzy viking
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      so basically 3 transfers to upgrade your goalkeeper?

      1. We Will Klopp you
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        No, to get rid of players I no longer want and get in good options to replace them, keeper might not even get upgraded

        1. the snazzy viking
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 9 days ago

          Ok I personally wouldn’t downgrade Daniels nor Ward, both great options imo. If you need to spread the funds elsewhere I’d do Daniels to Zeeg, and hold Ward, and maybe use the funds from that move to upgrade Pope, Niasse or Elliot

          1. We Will Klopp you
            • 9 Years
            8 years, 9 days ago

            Cheers. Bournemouth don't keep many clean sheets which is the issue with Daniels as well as his immediate fixtures. My thinking with Sakho is that he's the bap magnet so every time they pick up a cleanie in comes 8-9 points, Palace seem to have tightened up too. Ward on his own is a good option but the issue is that because I have Pope I always end up benching him to spread the risk, so I find there's no point having him. Fixtures a mixed bag soon too. Thinking Niasse to Crouch at some point too, should be good for a few bench points if needed

            1. We Will Klopp you
              • 9 Years
              8 years, 9 days ago

              *a bap magnet

  12. mogadishu
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Sane owners, are we jumping ship?

    1. zotter
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      I did this morning.

    2. jimmy.floyd
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Jumped already

    3. ZeBestee
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Nop. Tight

    4. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      You don't have to copy other people, just get rid innit.

  13. Jafooli
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    When does the Ashes start?

    1. Jafooli
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      *gets popcorn*

    2. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      After the fire

    3. GENERATION X
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      As a contest in 2019

    4. Moin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      When Phoenix starts to rise.

    5. F4L
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      When Stokes decides to turn up

      1. GENERATION X
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        ..and that's only if he gets it abandoned with a few big uppercuts

  14. Hotdogs for Tea
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Spurs top players looking like they will rested tonight - can only help for the weekend - Kane captain locked in for a big haul 🙂

    1. Holmes
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      2pointer instead of 1 would be nice 😛

      1. Hotdogs for Tea
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Had a captain fail 3 weeks on the bounce now - will just leave it on Kane from now on and ignore the hype ...

    2. Tshelby
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Kane most likely to play 90 min of the captain options this week imo but Spurs play just so awful.. Did you see the last two games? Don't really see any hauls for kane

      1. I Member
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        This. I'm shocked by how many are willing to captain Kane given Spurs' form. Stoke defence this, Stoke defence that. So what?! He's blanked against Burnley, Swansea, Bournemouth, Palace and Watford. Spurs haven't scored more than one goal in a league game since GW9!

    3. HashAttack
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Kane's never let me down, he's been good for 2 points on many occasions
      Jesus, Sane and Hazard have all managed to get me 1 point when captain

  15. Magic Bean
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    The analysis on Kane is great n'all but it'll probably end up being more simpler than people make out. The man has Stoke and Brighton at home next. If he does well in those fixtures we keep, if he underperforms in those fixtures we sell and bring back for 22

    1. Clump
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      •The bean speaks the truth.

  16. GENERATION X
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Just to throw oil on the Kane (C) fire - the last 3 times Spurs and Stoke have played in the Prem Spurs have won 4-0.

    1. FPL ZB
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      I captained him for it last year when his ownership was relatively low. Was the best day of my FPL life

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      6 goals and 1 assist in 7 games against Stoke for Kane

    3. Ode
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Spurs have scored 4 goals in their last 6 games. Form over fixture

      1. GENERATION X
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Some like cold hard facts, some like things like bogey teams, hoodoos etc...

  17. Mateja
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    From now to the end of season what do you think how much games CalvertLewin will start? in % answer 🙂

    1. FPL Emu
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      65%

    2. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      %? I'm not Carol Vorderman.

      He'll start about 7.

    3. ★Kuntheman★
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Don't rely on a 5.1 striker mate haha

      1. Epic Fail
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Especially when they 'should' buy a striker in Jan.

      2. Mateja
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Well if he would start atleast 60% of games i would pick him and dont have headaches about 3rd striker 🙂

    4. GAMBIT
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      I'm 100% sure Big Sam will get a striker in Jan if that helps you any

      1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Yep. He is gonna buy Andy Carroll!!! 😆

        1. GAMBIT
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 9 days ago

          Yikes. Might as well try to get Kevin Nolan out of retirement too.

          1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 16 Years
            8 years, 9 days ago

            You haven't heard? 😉

          2. Gnu
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 16 Years
            8 years, 9 days ago

            England in waiting apparently.
            According to his chairman who is new to football ownership.
            Already marking himself down as King of the clowns imo.

            1. Gnu
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 16 Years
              8 years, 9 days ago

              Darn.
              *England manager*

              1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 16 Years
                8 years, 9 days ago

                😀

                1. Dreams
                  • 8 Years
                  8 years, 9 days ago

                  Hello there senior player and manager. Looks like you fellas are having a nice time here.

                  1. Gnu
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 16 Years
                    8 years, 9 days ago

                    Just chillin'
                    Captains lurking somewhere - think he's at the bar!

                    1. Dreams
                      • 8 Years
                      8 years, 9 days ago

                      He's always at the bar when he's posting here I reckon.

                      1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 16 Years
                        8 years, 9 days ago

                        😆

                      2. Gnu
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 16 Years
                        8 years, 9 days ago

                        Well done on top score this week, edged the victory I reckon. 🙂

                      3. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 16 Years
                        8 years, 9 days ago

                        Yep. Bolivian Bandit!

                      4. Dreams
                        • 8 Years
                        8 years, 9 days ago

                        Got lucky with the Couti pick. I'm just relieved that I didn't fook up the midweek game with my terrible score.

    5. A.T
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      They'll but someone in Jan and that'll be it.

  18. Geoff
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    How is everyone?

    Would you prefer:

    1. Ramsey + Christensen
    2. Gross + Alonso

    Cheers in advance

    1. Sandy Ravage
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      1 by a distance

    2. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      I'm pukka, Geoff! 😉

      1).

      1. Geoff
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        😀

        Not happy that someone already took Geoff

        1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 16 Years
          8 years, 9 days ago

          Naughty people!!! 😆

    3. Kun Tozser
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      2

    4. Witty Pun: Not good at this…
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Both Groß and Ramsey are great... I guess Ramsey is more assured to keep up performance levels.

    5. Clifford☯
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      1

  19. Mr. Rabbit
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    My big question from this article is how is xG On Target Conceded calculated? If it's just by adding up the xG of the shots which end up on target, that seems highly problematic in terms of being able to judge a keeper.

    As Mike Goodman, who is much cleverer than me about xG and modelling than I am, says in the replies below this tweet on the subject - https://twitter.com/TheM_L_G/status/937720897867218946 - xG measures what happens until the ball leaves the foot of the shooting player. It's a measure of how good you would expect the shot to be, not what that shot was actually like, and it certainly doesn't account for the placement of the shot.

    Take Charlie Daniels goal against Man City. Terrifically low xG because it was highly unlikely to be on target, but he hit it so well it became almost impossible to save. If that comes out as -0.95 xGP (1 goal conceded - 0.05 xG on target) just from that shot, that would really tell us very little.

    Conversely there are plenty of times a high xG shot is taken from right in front of the goal, but hit straight at the (often unaware) keeper. Now you might argue that these things average out, as has been shown with xG, but I'm not aware of any available work to show this applies to expected goals prevented. Given how relatively few shots on target happen in a football match, we're also dealing with quite a low sample size.

    Finally, as it applies to FPL, if the conclusion is that DDG has conceded way fewer goals than expected, therefore this bodes well for scoring FPL points, I'm not sure I'd agree with that either. What it suggests to me is that DDG's save rate (and therefore clean sheet rate) is likely unsustainable. Even the very best goalscorers (Messi/Ronaldo etc) have only ever managed to average a max of about 1.2 goals per 1 xG. Unless the quality of keepers in the premier league varies an awful lot more than the quality of shooters, DDG's rating should tend towards the mean, if the xGP stat really does have any predictive value, which is what I'm after as a fantasy manager.

    1. The Head-Ake
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Tl;dr

      1. Annie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        I'll summarise for you...
        1) How is xG on target conceded calculated?
        2) It's hard to get a true measure.
        2) Ergo, I don't trust it and am ignoring.

        1. Annie
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          8 years, 9 days ago

          there are 2 point 2's intentionally 🙂

      2. Mr. Rabbit
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Well then goodness only knows how you cope with any of the articles on this website.

      3. GENERATION X
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Hope your rod is strong enough (oo-er) to reel in a Rabbit...

    2. Mark
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 18 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      I believe the Shot on Target xG value differs to regular xG as it measures the difficulty of the shot, not the difficulty of the chance.

      Eg: Morata's shot vs Stoke is measured, not the difficulty of him running 50 yards before shooting. They are two different values, we have them both but are currently only showing xG not shot on target xG in our members area. I'll get that addressed.

      I'd need to look up the value for the Daniels goal. Like you say, I think it's low therefore, yes, in terms of xG Prevented, the keeper would normally be expected to be able to save a shot from that range and angle.

      Having said that, it's a bit of an outlier - not a common goal type I would say.

      It's a fascinating subject and, sadly, I'm not able to contribute fully to this discussion at this moment in time. It would be one I'd want to pass back to Opta for their view, too. I agree though, that perhaps judging a keeper vs xG Shot on Target is not ideal and perhaps Opta need to come up with something else in order to get this metric more accurate.

      Even so, I still believe the results and analysis are very interesting.

      1. Mr. Rabbit
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Yes, it's certainly interesting, and almost certainly an improvement on raw save percentage as a measure for keeper quality.

        If Opta can (or have) come up with a model for expected saves that would be the logical next step. However in football and ice hockey, another of my favourite sports, goalkeepers have a weird kind of voodoo where advanced stats have thus far been largely unable to reliably quantify them.

        If the model Opta are using does produce a number distinct from the xG number, maybe you could suggest they call it xSaves, as shot on target xG just sounds like the sum of the xG of all shots that ended up on target.

    3. GENERATION X
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Eye test - DDG is a God in a side with the best defensive mindset and coach. Even against the better attacking sides he then kicks in with saves.

      If you have the cash free - buy. You will not be disappointed.

    4. Ludo
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      I don't know exactly how OPTA's xG Shot On Target works, but its a lot more sophisticated than just taking the xG of a shot on target.

      I think it reflects the quality of the shot somehow, not the quality of the chance, as xG does.

      It correlates with goals MUCH more strongly than xG, or any other stat for that matter.

      To use your example, the xG of Daniels' shot was 0.03, but th xG On Target was 0.74.

      1. Mr. Rabbit
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Thanks. It's very useful to have concrete number examples like that.

        In that case, my question would be whether xGP tends towards the mean as xG does. As I said I struggle to believe the quality of keepers would vary more than that of shooters. I would love to see the data for the whole of last season, or over a number of years, to get an idea of what it looks like with a bigger sample size.

        1. Ludo
          • 12 Years
          8 years, 9 days ago

          xGP is calculated from xG On Target - not the same thing as xG. You'd need to ask OPTA for a full definition of how its calculated (I haven't been able to find one), but from that Daniels example, my best guess is that it takes into account the probability of scoring from the placement of the shot (i.e. where 'on target' the shot was - top corner being best, low and central being worst), with less reliance than xG on the position on the field the shot is taken from.

          As you say, the very best goalscorers like Messi and Ronaldo can outscore their xG - it isn't too difficult to figure out why - xG just tells you how good the opportunity is for an average player - an elite player will be a better finisher than the average player, and make more of those chances. Is the same true of xG On Target? I'm not sure - but from the eye test, it seems that quality finishers who can consistently hit the corners of the goal fare better than they do with xG.

          What I'm saying is that the proper comparison needs to be between xG On Target and xGP, not xG and xGP. Whether or not xG On Target reverts to the mean, I have no idea. The issue, as you identified, is sample size - we only have data for this season in the Members Area, and shots on target make up only around a third of all shots, whereas xG of course covers every attempt made.

          1. casualnutpi
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            8 years, 9 days ago

            My guess is it just uses the subset of shot data which is on target for their calculation of expected goals. Which of course will be more highly correlated with goals than xG

  20. AzzaroMax99
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    IF I decide to ditch Kane in GW 18 - 22, who to get for him (up to 10.4)?

    A) Lacazette - NEW, LIV, cry, wba - no Arsenal players
    B) Jesus - TOT, BOU, new, cry - have Sterling
    C) Firmino - bou, ars, SWA, LEI - have Salah

    1. james 101
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Morata not possible?

      1. AzzaroMax99
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        I have morata.

        1. james 101
          • 13 Years
          8 years, 9 days ago

          Maybe firmino

          Just because Jesus will get rotated

        2. james 101
          • 13 Years
          8 years, 9 days ago

          Personally I'd go cheaper and boost your mids

    2. La Roja
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Laca probably best out of those but he barely completes 90min

      I’ll stick with Kane

    3. We Will Klopp you
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Lukaku?

      1. We Will Klopp you
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        West Brom, Leicester, Burnley, Southampton

      2. AzzaroMax99
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        He is over 10.4

        1. We Will Klopp you
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 9 days ago

          Apologies, missed that part. I think I'd go Lacazette but monitor his mins this and next gw

  21. Red Dagger ✪
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Niasse to DCL worth a -4 this week..?
    Or just hold and do next week and play RLC instead in a 352
    Or just wait and see if Big Sam starts to play Niasse.

    Cheers for the advice as always...

    1. zotter
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Not worth a -4 as long as you have viable other starter. Everton game stinks. And it also allows you to assess who is nailed.

      1. zotter
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Rlc yes

        1. zotter
          • 16 Years
          8 years, 9 days ago

          Surely you would play Rlc over dlc anyway this week

          1. Red Dagger ✪
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            8 years, 9 days ago

            Yes true.

    2. We Will Klopp you
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Defo wouldn't do it for a -4, would play RLC this gw, doubt he'll get anything v us. think waiting to see how it plays out for a couple of gws would be the best course of action.

      1. Red Dagger ✪
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Cheers as always WWKY.

    3. Red Dagger ✪
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Guess I'm concerned if price rises get away from me so do the switch. Going to play Kane + Morata + a viable cheap 3rd for the foreseeable future.

    4. Speédy
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Hold surely, most DCL owners are starting RLC too.

    5. jimmy.floyd
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Hooold

  22. FPL Maldini
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    How many West Ham and Spurs players are people planning to get for the DGW?

    I am thinking Hart / Sanchez / Cresswell / Kane and one more

    1. Netley Lucas
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      More than none and less than two 😆

    2. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Between 3 and 6.

    3. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      1 & 3.

    4. I Member
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Just Kane and a goalkeeper I think. 48 days between games, rotation will be fierce. Alli and Eriksen would have to show some serious form for me to even consider ditching the midfielders I have now.

      1. KingOfLuck
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        48 days should be enough for professionals

  23. Abusive_Sgt_Daelrhos
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    A) I can only get Hazard by selling Coutinho which I'm not keen on OR selling Kane, is Hazard really that essential atm? My mid is Cout,Salah,Sterling,Groß,RLC.

    B) Got 2 FT, spending even one this GW may be trouble cuz I'm content atm, do I do Niasse to Lewin so I don't waste one FT, cheers boys

    1. Podge
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      More essential than Kane in my opinion

    2. terrypaulpearce
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      I think Haz is almost essential in a general sense, but maybe not in the middle of a run of 5 matches in 15 days. Wait until a couple of gw's time, I'd say.

      Niasse to Lewin is probably solid.

      1. Abusive_Sgt_Daelrhos
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Ty

  24. Deano
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    So, with Hazard’s very poor history in away games and whu/hud up next within three days, is anyone gambling on him as Captain?

    1. Klopptomist Scott Jelly
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Been strong away this season if I recall correctly 🙂

    2. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Good one Deano.

      1. Klopptomist Scott Jelly
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        I like that there's a topic for each week - normally whoever seems to be the most popular captain choice, sowing seeds of doubt

      2. Deano
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Nice to see you back up and about mate. 🙂

        1. Deano
          • 13 Years
          8 years, 9 days ago

          @TM by the way.

          1. Klopptomist Scott Jelly
            • 8 Years
            8 years, 9 days ago

            Charming 😉

    3. terrypaulpearce
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      If he gets no rests he'll have played 5 games in 15 days (this will be match 3 of those 5), so I can see him getting a rest or getting hooked early in the second half, in one or both of this and the next game.

      Not ideal for my captain choice.

    4. Tshelby
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Two of the three double digits points came from away games. The fact that he plays in a more advanced role doesn't make away games less appealing anymore, imo.

      1. Deano
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Fair enough, small sample size but change in position may offset this.

        1. Tshelby
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 9 days ago

          Has only played 4 away games this season for more then 70 min and scored 2 - 11 - 18 - 8 so that's pretty decent.

          I've just convinced myself to put the armband on Hazard 🙂

    5. GENERATION X
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Probably not - will make do with a couple of 11-14 pointers...

  25. Gnu
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    So how many posts and threads were deleted this morning, sems like quite a few?

    1. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Was there some drama?

      1. Gnu
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        FFS self-appointed favourite poster had some sort of meltdown - of a sort.

        1. DAZZ
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 9 days ago

          Who? Haha did i miss some drama

          1. Klopptomist Scott Jelly
            • 8 Years
            8 years, 9 days ago

            Yeah "self-appointed favourite poster" doesn't actually narrow it down that much 😛

        2. BananaNose Maldonado
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 9 days ago

          Virg?

          1. ★Kuntheman★
            • 10 Years
            8 years, 9 days ago

            Virg or Chapelle having an existential crisis would be pretty funny

            1. Gnu
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 16 Years
              8 years, 9 days ago

              One of them is a self appointed expert, big difference. 😉

              1. ★Kuntheman★
                • 10 Years
                8 years, 9 days ago

                😆 is there though? 🙂

            2. BananaNose Maldonado
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 11 Years
              8 years, 9 days ago

              I like Virg. He's a bit obsessive about the Scoutcast, but adds to the forum. Chapelle? Well, um.

              1. Klopptomist Scott Jelly
                • 8 Years
                8 years, 9 days ago

                This

              2. ★Kuntheman★
                • 10 Years
                8 years, 9 days ago

                I honestly don't mind Virg either. I quite openly don't like Chapelle haha

            3. Klopptomist Scott Jelly
              • 8 Years
              8 years, 9 days ago

              Aw I like Virg. He's polite and positive and a keen bean.

        3. ★Kuntheman★
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 9 days ago

          I miss all of the fun 🙁

          "self-appointed favourite poster" lots of people fall under that one

          1. BananaNose Maldonado
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            8 years, 9 days ago

            We probably all do 🙂

    2. The Overthinker
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Are the posts getting deleted?

  26. Ramboros
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Sané starting for City really makes it seem likely that he'll be rested against Swansea.

    1. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Pep.

      1. La Roja
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        peroni

      2. The Overthinker
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Si?

    2. We Will Klopp you
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Wouldn't draw any conclusions from this, we've thought things like that a number of times.

      1. We Will Klopp you
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Only to get proven wrong

    3. Monkey Hanger
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Pep has already told the media how important Sane is in his current position. No way he misses the derby.

      1. Ramboros
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Afaik Swansea has no derby against City.

  27. Deano
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Breaking news!

    Reports from down under are that Cook, Bairstow, Stokes and Pietersen are lobbying for an Ashes team in 2019 without any English players. Representatives of the four from Scotland, Wales, New Zealand and South Africa respectively have suggested “they are sick and tired of playing with losers.”

    More to follow......

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Get some sleep Deano.

      1. Deano
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Just setting up the rack for Dingo to break in a few hours mate.

    2. Monkey Hanger
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Make the most of it. Doesn't happen too often. Think its five for us out of the last seven, isn't it?

  28. stat
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Thoughts on these moves for a 4 pt hit?
      Azpi -> Christensen
      Surman -> Richarlison
      Abraham -> DCL

      Will give me the following team:
      Fabianski
      Dunk - Kolasinac - Christensen
      Hazard - Salah - Sterling - Richarlison - RLC
      Kane - Morata

      Bench: Elliot, DCL, Daniels, Mee

      1. Kryten
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Looks a good idea to me

      2. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Good moves

    • FPL ZB
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Who gets more points this week?

      a) Hazard and Kiko
      b) Richarlison and Azpi

      1. william prunier
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        A

      2. GreenArrows
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        A

      3. barracuda
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        A

      4. Winston.
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        A

    • El Muñeco
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      TL;DR - DDG is a phenomenal goalkeeper

      1. El Muñeco
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Whereas Joe Hart is not