Members
6 December 2017 1215 comments
Prokoptas Prokoptas
Share:

Regular readers of the Technical Area articles will no doubt be familiar with expected goals (xG), a key metric introduced to the Fantasy Football Scout Members’ area this year as a means of estimating goal scoring returns on the basis of chance quality.

This week, however, we are flipping our focus to examine the top goalkeepers over this year’s campaign and to introduce, for the first time, our related keeper-specific metric: expected goals prevented (xGP).

In brief, this data tallies the quantity and quality of chances a goalkeeper is faced with, in order to calculate a baseline of their expected goals conceded. From this number, we subtract the true number of goals that have beaten each goalkeeper, in order to determine the expected goals they have personally deterred.

This week’s Technical Area will be running the rule over how FPL’s highest-owned goalkeepers have performed in this particular metric thus far.

We also take a wider view of the position as it now stands, in light of the recent uncertainty surrounding the pitch time of budget-friendly options such as Rob Elliot and Julian Speroni.

1,215 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. ryacoo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Will be playing double Burnley defence (Pope & Mee) if Mustafi doesn't make it. Which midfielder should l play:

    A) RLC (BOU)
    B) Richarlison (bur)

    1. Over Midwicket
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      B

    2. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      B

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        But spoils the fun a bit I guess

    3. Stef rocks
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      I have exactly the same dilemma, but I dont have Burnley defenders. So imo your answer is clear - play RLC (when you will play him if not at home vs BOR)

  2. Rik Waller
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Bottom 3 keepers in these stats are English... We still believe.

    1. redbeard
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Pour yourself a stiff drink 😉

  3. Dheeraj Amarnani
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Wildcard week

    DDG
    Sakho Dunk Mee
    Sane Salah Hazard Richarlison RLC
    Morata Kane(c)

    (Speroni Otamendi Zeegelaar Calvert-Lewin)
    Nothing in the bank.
    Good to go?

    1. Gruu
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Sane to Sterling and upgrade Sakho/Dunk.

  4. Boris Bodega
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    All this fuss over getting Kane in for the DBL GW, are there not better options in Spurs to consider when you look at the fixtures?

    1. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      LLoris

    2. FPL ZB
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Name one? Alli and Eriksen are dreadful atm, the wingbacks rotate, Vert gets booked every game, and they're conceding

      1. Boris Bodega
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Personally thinking about defence and Eriksen.

        1. Boris Bodega
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 7 months ago

          oh and Son, but only if he looks like playing both games.

        2. ryacoo
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 7 months ago

          2 games in less than 2 days - will any Spurs play them both other than Kane, Lloris, etc?

    3. GENERATION X
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      That week is a long way away - if say Rose gets injured in the run up (or goes off on one again) I'd be all over Bavies

      1. GENERATION X
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        ...maybe even Kane, in comes Llorente

    4. Rik Waller
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      No

    5. Gommy
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      No. I wouldn't advise trying to overthink it either.

      If everyone's fit, Kane/Lloris will be the only two that you could say are nailed for both. After that, you would probably consider Vertonghen/Alderweireld.

      Injuries between now and then may enable others.

  5. stat
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Thoughts on this move for a 4 pt hit?

    Azpi -> Kiko Femenia
    Surman -> Ramsey
    Abraham -> DCL

    Would give me this team:
    Fabianski / Elliot
    Dunk / Daniels / Kolasinac / Mee / Kiko
    Salah / Ramsey / Hazard / Sterling / RLC
    Kane / Morata / DCL

    1. DA Minnion (Former great)
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Those are the 3 players I took in this week.

      1. stat
        8 years, 7 months ago

        I'm also considering Richarlison and Christensen instead of Ramsey and Femenia. Chelsea are likelier to keep CS than Watford and there's not much in it between Richarlison and Ramsey.

  6. Davidinho
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Can anyone give me the lowdown on the Everton striker situation? If DCL plays he seems like a no brainer to accommodate Hazard.

    1. ryacoo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Niasse was inform and looked first choice, then he got banned for 2 games. DCL did well in that time and has kept his place for now.

      1. Davidinho
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Thanks. It seems inconclusive then 🙁

        1. Albrightondknight
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 7 months ago

          Thing is I assumed Niasse would be the Big Sam type player but DCL is the one with all the headed attempts.
          Time will tell but I own Niasse 🙁 not looking good now but hope he gets his place back.

    2. Mini Mane Mo
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      New striker coming in Jan

      1. Pocky
        • 17 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Also own Niasse...I think he'll get minutes over the next 2 fixtures, so I'm gonna hold for now and hope things become a little clearer after next Wednesday night.

  7. stat
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Would you rather have:

    A) Kiko + Ramsey
    B) Christensen + Richarlison

    1. tafrère
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      B

    2. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      B

  8. tafrère
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Zeegelaar (4.4 soon 4.5) or Kabasele (4.5) ?

  9. jdogg
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Lukaku and sane

    To

    Hazard and vardy

    Worth-4?x

    1. tafrère
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Yes.

    2. Stef rocks
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Get rid of both but I would choose Firmino over Vardy

  10. Old Wulfrunian
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    From gw17 who is the best defender pick from Manutd?

    1. stat
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Jones, he should be back soon

    2. SUPER 11
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Valencia

  11. Saïss Doesn't Mat…
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    "Warning – fans of the English national team may wish to pour themselves a stiff drink before making it to the bottom of this list:"
    Hahahaha nice touch.

  12. Albrightondknight
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Sorry bit out of the loop.
    The Spurs and West Ham blank in 21 and dgw in 22 is caused just by the way the fixtures fall during fixture congestion?
    Has this happened before at the same time of year I can't remember.

    1. tafrère
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Nope it's because of logistical problems.

      1. Albrightondknight
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Thanks

  13. Sims
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Looks like this is true. 🙁

    http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/comment/17114883

    1. Bury94
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Oh dear, bad week to have my worst week of the season, knocked out of LMS and not qualified for this

    2. johnnys balloons
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      When we will know for sure? I got 56 points

  14. PocketZola
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    So close to selling kane

  15. HurriKane
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Nobody considering Shaqiri ?

    - 4 goals and 5 assists in last 11 pl starts.

    - Only 6.1m price and has (bur WHU WBA hud NEW) in 5 of next 6 after spurs

    1. Holmes
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Probably going to drop Zaha for him in couple of weeks

    2. Fpldonny
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      shhhh

    3. Kryten
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      He seems to clash with richarislon at that price difficult to afford in the current template.

    4. Stats Don\'t Lie
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Shhhhhhh

  16. PocketZola
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Daniels to zeeglar before the price rise?

    1. tafrère
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      I'm a bit in the same position, if it's not for a hit I say yes.

    2. SUPER 11
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Yes ....

    3. Pierce34
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Don't think so, I'd rather keep Daniels for this week and sell next.

    4. Stef rocks
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Yes

  17. Sillet Bang
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Fabianski
    Azpi Kolo Ward Valencia
    Gross Salah KDB
    Kane@ Morata Gray

    Ryan RLC Ferminia Cork

    Can’t make my mind on subs! Any opinions appreciated

    1. redbeard
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      You have Gray vs Ward so bench Ward and start RLC?

  18. Pierce34
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Assuming they both start, would you captain Ben Yedder or Salah in UCL tonight?

    1. Kryten
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Salah

  19. SUPER 11
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Play Pope or Lloris?

    1. Kryten
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Lloris as Watford look decent this year

  20. boc610
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    If you want a short rundown of what Pep did to Joe Harts career, find an empty coke can, crush it and toss it in the bin.

    1. Kryten
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      To be fair didn't Pellegrino bench Hart first?

    2. Fpldonny
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      tbf joe hart is not a top class keeper

      1. Kryten
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        He was a few years ago

    3. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      I've never bought Head and Shoulders since he started advertising it.

  21. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Benching headaches! Which 3 would you Bench? Thinking Ota, Ward and DCL.

    Fab
    Ota / Christensen / Kiko / Ward / Duffy
    Salah / Richarl / Hazard / Coutinho / RLC
    Kane / Morata / DCL
    (Elliot / XXX / XXX / XXX)

    1. stat
      8 years, 7 months ago

      I agree with benching Ward and DCL but I'm not sure if I'd start Otamendi or Kiko.

    2. Stef rocks
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      I would bench RLC DCL and Ward, e.g. play Ota

  22. leonickroberts
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Start:

    a) Ota (mun)
    b) Kenny (liv)
    c) Mariappa (bur)

    1. tafrère
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      C

    2. Kryten
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      C

  23. stat
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Thoughts on these moves for a 4 pt hit?
    Azpi -> Christensen
    Surman -> Richarlison
    Abraham -> DCL

    Will give me the following team:
    Fabianski
    Dunk - Kolasinac - Christensen
    Hazard - Salah - Sterling - Richarlison - RLC
    Kane - Morata

    Bench: Elliot, DCL, Daniels, Mee

    1. Kryten
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Looks a good idea to me

    2. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Good moves

  24. GENERATION X
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    I have Duffy, Dunk, Naughton and Mee into 2 spots.

    Big Brighton gamble, one of them or none at all?

    1. The Rumour Mill
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      I would double down on Brighton!

      1. GENERATION X
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Thanks for feedback - I think one of them is due a goal too so may well gamble, maybe Dunk in the right net!

  25. Iceball
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Defender up to 4.9
    A) Sakho
    B) Zee
    C) Simpson/Morgan

    1. Kryten
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Sakho bonus and attacking potential with out dann in the lineups

    2. Football Weekender
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      From that list - C

      Off list - Femenia

    3. Live Lad
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      I went J Ward myself. 0.1 short of Sakho.

  26. XABI 15
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Bench one of:

    Richarlison (Bur A, have Mee)
    Gross (Hud A)
    Wilson (Cry A)
    Abraham (WBA H)

    Thanks

    1. Kryten
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      What's you team look like?

      1. XABI 15
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        DDG Elliot

        Mee Azpi Kola Hegazi Jones
        Hazard Salah Ramsey Gross Richarlison
        Abraham Wilson Kane

    2. stat
      8 years, 7 months ago

      I'd probably bench Abraham, but I have no idea which one of Defoe and Wilson Howe will start so that's something to consider too.

    3. The Head-Ake
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      C

  27. Daniel Exeter
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Admittedly I don't really know anything about Zeeglar - I see he's on the rise.

    He's only played 4 games all season, yes the last 4 .. but where has he been the rest of the season? Is there a worry he'll be fall back to not playing?

    1. czechow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      I have the exact same concerns..

    2. Football Weekender
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      There’s always the risk of wingbacks being rotated due to the physical exertion the position requires. The only one who seems immune to it is Alonso. I’d expect Zeegelaar to be rested for Holebas at some point and the same with Femenia and Janmaat on the other side. Won’t stop me from getting Femenia though.

      1. czechow
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Does similarly priced Kabasele prevent the risk? 2 goals in last 7 or something

        1. Football Weekender
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 7 months ago

          Centrebacks are less prone to rotation but as to who Silva’s preferred three are, I don’t know to be honest. The insight of a Watford supporter would be helpful at this point!

  28. czechow
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Pope - Elliott
    Mee - Daniels - Christensen - Azpi - Dunk
    Richo - RLC - Salah - Sterling - Sane
    Kane - Morata - Wilson

    A) Sane > Coutinho
    B) Sane + Azpi > Hazard + Kabasele / Zeeg / Mariappa (-4)
    C) something else?

    Dead weight I am looking at Elliott, Sane (due to Utd away), Wilson. Would like Hazard above all else.

    Help please guys?

  29. Stef rocks
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Repeating post, but still don’t have answers to myself!

    Need to play 3 - Who would you play out of these:
    A)Gomez vs EVE.
    B)Maguire vs new
    C)Gross vs hud
    D)Richa vs bur
    E) RLC vs BOR
    F) Wilson vs cry

    Currently heading to A, B & C but that would mean playing 5-3-2 which seems kind of weird but could be beneficial at the end of the day?!

    I really want to avoid having 6pts playing and 15+ on bench 🙁

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      A clean sheet
      C great fixture
      E palace should score worth a wee gamble

    2. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      C D F

    3. Surfeit of Lampteys
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Damn that's tough. The only two I'd be comfortable benching are Maguire and Wilson. If Gomez plays tonight there's a chance he plays Trent vs Everton anyway.

      1. Stef rocks
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Yeah pretty clear with Gomez situation - so there comes the question of 1st sub if I play him and he didn’t play 🙂

        1. Surfeit of Lampteys
          • 8 Years
          8 years, 7 months ago

          I say go ACD with EBF your bench order. V tough call tho so good luck.

    4. Stef rocks
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Rest of the team if this will help you 🙂

      Fab
      Azpi Kola Tripier
      Salah Ozil
      Morata Kane

  30. KingOfLuck
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    I have 2 FT and 1.0 M itb, but not sure were to use them?

    Fabianski
    Daniels - Monreal – Ward – Naugton
    Hazard – Salah – Zaha
    Firmino – Kane – Morata
    Subs: Elliot – Doucouré – Cork - Mbemba

    A) Elliot -> Gomes
    B) Elliot + Fabianski -> Speroni + Courtois
    C) Zaha -> Ramsey
    D) City coverage?
    E) Other?
    F) Waste a FT?!

    1. justlikehoney
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Team looks good for this week. I'd do Elliot to Gomes or Mbemba to a Watford defender.