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6 December 2017 1215 comments
Prokoptas Prokoptas
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Regular readers of the Technical Area articles will no doubt be familiar with expected goals (xG), a key metric introduced to the Fantasy Football Scout Members’ area this year as a means of estimating goal scoring returns on the basis of chance quality.

This week, however, we are flipping our focus to examine the top goalkeepers over this year’s campaign and to introduce, for the first time, our related keeper-specific metric: expected goals prevented (xGP).

In brief, this data tallies the quantity and quality of chances a goalkeeper is faced with, in order to calculate a baseline of their expected goals conceded. From this number, we subtract the true number of goals that have beaten each goalkeeper, in order to determine the expected goals they have personally deterred.

This week’s Technical Area will be running the rule over how FPL’s highest-owned goalkeepers have performed in this particular metric thus far.

We also take a wider view of the position as it now stands, in light of the recent uncertainty surrounding the pitch time of budget-friendly options such as Rob Elliot and Julian Speroni.

  1. Feyzi
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 10 days ago

    xGoals just proves where statistics are least valuable. Look at over/under stats and you will see why. It is the most underwhelming stats on this page. I use it mainly because I know it will not be helpful. Every stats on this page are valuable. Except xGoals. It is our duty to find out why so that we can bette ourselves, but that is about all the stats are useful.

  2. FPLAdmiral
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 10 days ago

    Is Alonso worth the money chaps? Undecided on A or B -

    (A) Better XI - Alonso, Mustafi, Mbemba (Bench), Niasse (Bench)
    (B) Better Squad - Christensen, Otamendi, Kiko (Rotate), DCL (Rotate) +0.2m

    Pope (Elliot)
    __, __, __, Moreno, Mee
    Hazard, Salah, Sterling, Richarlison, RLC
    __, Kane, Morata

  3. FPL Virgin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 10 days ago

    Is xG Prevented available in the members area stats tables?

    1. Mark
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 18 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      Not yet, but will be in the next update out soon. We're just trying to sanity check the Fouls for Shots stat for refs and then we've some tidying to do. I reckon next week will be rolling it out. So nice new widgets included too.

      1. FPL Virgin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Thanks, Mark.

  4. Edmond
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 10 days ago

    So quick vote lads, who do you think is the best Chelsea defensive option?

    a) Alonso
    b) Azpilicueta
    c) Christensen

    1. MartialMatas
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      a points c value

  5. MartialMatas
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 10 days ago

    This De Gea guy is pretty good isn't he?

    1. Mark
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 18 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      Yeah. This really demonstrated the massive gulf and just how many points he's winning United.

      1. Edmond
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 10 days ago

        Do you think De Gea is a good option Mark?

        Never fancied the expensive GKs.

        1. barracuda
          • 8 Years
          8 years, 10 days ago

          This season is different. I brought him in 4 GWs ago and regret not bringing him earlier.

          1. Klopptomist Scott Jelly
            • 8 Years
            8 years, 10 days ago

            Ditto

    2. badgerboy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      Yeah. Ignored Heaton last season and regreted it. Been avoiding De Gea so far but after seeing their fixtures after this weekend through till january i'm going to splash out on a luxuary keeper for the first time.

    3. william prunier
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      If it wasn't for Jones I'd have already got him in

      1. SCZCCOLA
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        This

  6. Bebotok
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 10 days ago

    A. Davies-Alonso
    B. Cedric-Kolasinac

    Thanks..

  7. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 10 days ago

    There are Lies, damned Lies and Statistics.

    1. Winston.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      A. DDG&Pereira + Christensen or
      B. Hennessey&Speroni + Alonso

      Thanks.

      1. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 10 days ago

        A

  8. Pirlø's Pen
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 10 days ago

    Looking set? 0FT. 0.0ITB.

    Pope
    Alonso Otamendi Maguire
    Salah Coutinho Sterling Richarilson Loftus-Cheek
    Kane(c) Morata

    Elliot Daniels Ward Niasse

    Cheers.

    1. barracuda
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      Really good!

  9. Davidinho
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 10 days ago

    Any ideas how to work Hazard into this team?

    Foster Elliot
    Alonso Ota Mee Moreno Naughton
    Sane Salah RLC Carroll Richarlison
    Kane Morata Firmino

    2FT £0.0 itb

    I'm currently on Firmino + Sane -> Hazard + DLC whch would leave me enough to do Carroll to Choupo-Moting at some point soon. A good bench could be important over Christmas.

    1. william prunier
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      I'm in similar situation. Going to wait for Morata suspension.
      In b4 Costa comments

    2. Winston.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      Downgrade Firmino. Or Kane if you are chasing and want to be brave.

      1. Davidinho
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 10 days ago

        I considered Firmnio but then Sane + Firmino just seems better than Hazard + DLC. Maybe not though Given Pep's rotation and Klopp may play Sturridge from time to time.

  10. Athletic Nasherbo
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 10 days ago

    Which option is better?

    A) Christensen and Coutinho
    B) Alonso and Ramsey

    1. william prunier
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      B

    2. barracuda
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      A

    3. La Gazzetta
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      B. All 4 are good options. I like Christensen Coutinho and Ramsey as pretty cheap for what they offer.

    4. Winston.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      A

  11. GreenArrows
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 10 days ago

    Never done transfers before a CL week but bit the bullet Saturday night and did Lukaku + Fernandinhio > DCL + Hazard

    gtg for the weekend if no injuries etc?

    Pope
    Daniels Mee Moreno
    Hazard (C) Salah Silva Richarlison
    DLC Kane Mortata

    Elliot RLC Duffy Jones

    0.8itb 0FT

    0.8 to be used to transfer out elliot...or upgrade Jones to Oteamendi

    1. La Gazzetta
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      I would've made the same move and they came out unscathed so hopefully the rest do too. I think your plan for the 0.8 is wise

  12. JoeJitzu +42
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 10 days ago

    Bench 2:

    A. Otamendi (mun)
    B. Daniels (cry)
    C. Mee (WAT)
    D. Moreno (EVE)
    E. Mbemba (LEI)

    Currently on B & E.....

    1. barracuda
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      C E Watford will score

    2. Winston.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      DE

    3. Hotdogs for Tea
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      I think you may not have a choice ?

      D E

    4. My Name Is Pepu
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      D)
      E)

  13. Winston.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 10 days ago

    A. DDG&Pereira + Christensen or
    B. Hennessey&Speroni + Alonso

    Thanks.

  14. Fletcher Moss
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 10 days ago

    Pope (Elliot)
    Ward Dunk Daniels (Jones Kenny)
    Hazard Salah Sterling Richarlison Groß
    Kane Morata (Niasse)

    1FT & £0.6m ITB.

    No urgent moves, all going well tonight/tomorrow. Still have my wildcard so no rush to lose Elliot and have kept Jones for the long term.

    Niasse to DCL seems tempting, or is it best to wait it out since it’s only a bench spot? More info on Sam’s Everton may help, or 2FTs will mean I can potentially spend more than £5.6m up top if required.

  15. Aasen
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 10 days ago

    GTG ?
    Think i need 2-3 Transfers next GW as Daniels/Brady needs to go.
    Keep faith in Vardy or upgrade Brady to 3rd midfielder and downgrade Vardy?

    Courtois
    Ottamendi-Daniels-Naughton
    Richarlison-Hazard-Salah-RLC
    Morata-Kane-Vardy

    Bench Elliot, Mee,Brady,Rosinor
    1FT 0,4mil IB

    1. La Gazzetta
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      Looks good this week. Save and downgrade Vardy like you said and upgrade Brady. Should be able to get something decent in that bracket. Ramsey at least

  16. Mackans
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 10 days ago

    How can i do my team better?

    Hennessey
    Alonso Ward Daniels Kenny
    Hazard Salah Sterling Richarlison RLC
    Kane Morata

    Bench: Elliot Kenny Marriappa Quaner

    1. Aasen
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      Kiko in for Daniels next GW?
      Should do well with that tamplate team

      1. Mackans
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 10 days ago

        Yes good idea, i will do that:)

    2. La Gazzetta
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      Probably by upgrading bench a little. Might be better off with Speroni over Elliot to avoid no keeper gameweeks. Also you have 2 kennys

      1. Mackans
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 10 days ago

        Yes i have had two gameweeks in a row now without a keeper, so yes, i like your tips:)

  17. Twisted Saltergater
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 10 days ago

    Fantastic. On eof the best stats based articles I've had the pleasure of reading on FFS.

    Goalkeepers are ripe for this kind of analysis as their playing position is not helped or hindered by the quality of their team mates; a goalkeeper is directly comparable.

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      *One of!

    2. Holmes
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      How is Gomes looking? 😉

      1. Twisted Saltergater
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 10 days ago

        He's in the middle group, slightly above average 😉

        He's a good pick.

    3. Hotdogs for Tea
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      Agreed, the XG for forwards is pretty lame when you dig down in to it, but for keepers it is quite good

      1. Twisted Saltergater
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 10 days ago

        xG is great for strikers but if they're taking up goal scoring positions (and receiving the ball) but aren't scoring then they'll still have a high xG despite being a poor finisher.

        We have to remember that it's expected goals that a typical (average?) striker would score, from that position.

        1. Hotdogs for Tea
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 10 days ago

          Yes but it doesn’t take in to account actual goals scored, quality of player, quality of team, opposition, accuracy, hitting the woodwork, long shots ... basically a rubbish player that misses lots of easy shots and can’t hit a cow’s arse with a banjo will come out on top and above someone like Coutinho or Kane that tries and scores U-XG (un expected goals) - the stat needs to be weighted to make it useful in predicting goals rather than recording misses, it really should be called xM (expected miss)

          ... Well that is for the FFS xG data, but other versions on other sites are much better

    4. Twisted Saltergater
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      I would be curious to know if Butland conceding a shot at his near post that flies into the top corner, is measured as the same as a near post shot (from the same position) that De Gea saves with his feat. Obviously, Butland faced the more difficult shot and shouldn't be compared.

      1. Twisted Saltergater
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 10 days ago

        *feet... I hate typing on my phone!!

    5. The Big Fella
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Not sure I agree 100% to be honest. Pickford had such good stats last season because his defence was shite so he was called into action a lot. de Gea or Courtois has a better defence in front of him so they're not called into action as much.

  18. Mackans
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 10 days ago

    How can i do my team better?

    Hennessey
    Alonso Ward Daniels
    Hazard Salah Sterling Richarlison RLC
    Kane Morata

    Bench: Elliot Kenny Marriappa Quaner

  19. whodatgoal
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 10 days ago

    Speroni
    Alonso - Kolasinac - Christensen
    Hazard - Salah - Zaha - Groß
    Kane - Jesus - DCL

    Bench: Pope, Naughton, Dunk, RLC
    1FT

    A) Good to go, save
    B) Jesus -> Lacazette
    C) Play Naughton over DCL
    C) Play Pope over Speroni

    1. whodatgoal
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      err *D) Play Pope over Speroni

      1. La Gazzetta
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 10 days ago

        I would start Pope. I'd also save rather than bring in Lacazette. Don't like Morata?

        1. whodatgoal
          • 8 Years
          8 years, 10 days ago

          3 Chelsea already. Jesus has City A and Lacazette has great fixtures so now's a good time if ever.

          1. whodatgoal
            • 8 Years
            8 years, 10 days ago

            err United A*

          2. La Gazzetta
            • 8 Years
            8 years, 10 days ago

            Didn't see the double up at the back. I do like Arsenal at the moment and want to get someone in, I think I would rather get Ramsey than Lacazette though. I don't like that he plays 70mins max, I guess that would be a good result if that continues and he starts every game. I just sense his minutes will be reduced further but that's just a gut feeling

        2. Davidinho
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 10 days ago

          Thought the same but he has 3 Chelsea already

  20. Fuddled FC
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 10 days ago

    Which transfers tare best?

    a) Alonso & Choupo & Vardy > Christensen & Hazard & DCL (-4)
    b) Choupo & Vardy > Coutinho & DCL

    1. stachman
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      A

    2. La Gazzetta
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      A because of Hazard

    3. Prison Mike
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      I'm doing B most likely but already have haz

  21. Mackans
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 10 days ago

    How can i do my team better?

    Hennessey
    Alonso Ward Daniels
    Hazard Salah Sterling Richarlison RLC
    Kane Morata

    Bench: Elliot Kenny Marriappa Quaner
    2 ft - 0,0mil IB

    1. Tshelby
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      How many times will you ask this?

    2. circusmonkey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      Swap Quaner for DLC, get rid of Daniels to another Watford defender, or Brighton, or Palace (looking at the fixture sort on the ticker).

    3. Reiger
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      Here's your long range plan:
      Kane & RLC > Murray & Coutinho.
      A stellar midfield!
      You'll then have plenty itb for future upgrades for gk, def, bench

  22. stachman
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 10 days ago

    Richarlison or Ramsey?

    1. Aubaaaaa
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      Ramsey

    2. La Gazzetta
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      I have Richarlison and I'm hesitant to take out for Ramsey. If I didn't own either and was buying one I would go for Ramsey

  23. Aubaaaaa
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 10 days ago

    A. Sanchez Firmino
    B. Hazard Laca
    C. Sane Kane

    1. Hotdogs for Tea
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      Really not much between all 3,

      C

  24. Hobolicious
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 10 days ago

    Who do you think is the best striker for a maximum of 6.6m and what is your reasoning?

    1. Yellin' in my Ear
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      DCL, hype

      1. Hobolicious
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 10 days ago

        See answer below.

    2. GXNG
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      If price doesn't matter than Austin. Proven goalscorer who is on form and fixtures aren't as bad as people think (Arsenal at home is a good fixture). Form over fixtures anyways.
      Could go with DLC if you need that 0.8.

      1. Hobolicious
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 10 days ago

        See answer below.

    3. Oven Glover
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      That price bracket relies on fixtures and form imo. There’s no set and forget options so switching due to fixtures and form is the way to go.

      Austin, Wilson & DCL have the best (relative) form and Wood & Gray the best fixtures.

      I’ll be looking to switch Tammy after WBA for one of the above.

      1. Hobolicious
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 10 days ago

        Why are you swapping out Abraham if I might ask? I was looking at Wood, but I am not sure what Brady being out for a long time will mean for his points.

        As for DLC I see his potential, but I also see a lot of rotation. Wilson and Austin the same (though I wish Austin played regularly as he is a points magnet). Gray will also be rotating with Deeney I would think.

        It really is only Abraham and Wood that seem somewhat "safe" looking at their minutes in their respective teams. Murray could potentially be added as well.

        Would have been nice if West Ham picked up some form and either Andy or Chicharito nailed a spot up front.

        1. Oven Glover
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 10 days ago

          It looks like Bony’s return to the starting lineup could have an negative impact on Tammy (will monitor against WBA) and I have very little faith in Swansea. Might downgrade all the way down to Crouch to free up much needed funds.

          1. Hobolicious
            • 10 Years
            8 years, 10 days ago

            I am also considering a downgrade and going 4-4-2 (or 3-5-2). Probably DLC would come in if I go that route as I see him having the biggest potential of the cheapest attackers.

            Btw, if you are going to go as far down as Crouch you might as well go even further and get Quaner.

            1. Oven Glover
              • 10 Years
              8 years, 10 days ago

              Nah, Crouch more likely to get minutes and returns between the two. Only .3 diff.

    4. Boris Bodega
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      I think it could be C Wilson, but still early days.

    5. Andy'81
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      I've gone with the budget option of Quaner (4.5), I'm not very confident on nailed on starts for the rest of the contenders in the price bracket and I don't want to be burning FT's on the third striker spot whilst we've the return from suspension of Pogba and the DGW players to potentially plan for

  25. vinniebolton
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 10 days ago

    Who would agree??

    Keep fighting against captaining Kane, but... if i cap Haz

    Im top of my league, expect most of my league to cap Haz

    alot in my league dont even have Kane, so if he does fire its still a good diff just to have him

    1. Drum8888
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      Cap Haz and VC Kane? Then you're covered

  26. nekatie
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 10 days ago

    I have Fabianski and Elliot, 0.4 ITB, can sell Elliot for 4.1. What to do?

    1. justlikehoney
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      Gomes from Watford looks a good pick for the next few weeks. Or just get Swansea's back-up keeper if you are happy enough with Fabianski, that way you are always guaranteed a starting keeper.

      1. nekatie
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 10 days ago

        Thoughts on Ryan or Begovic

  27. TeddiPonza
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 10 days ago

    Would you do Alonso and Wilson TO Morgan/Simpson and Vardy/Firmino for free?

    1. GXNG
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      That's a downgrade tbh.

  28. Mackans
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 10 days ago

    Captain Hazard (whu) or Kane (STK)?

    1. okan58
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      Would Kane say. Will be spared for Nicosia today and against Stoke, he will be in very good shape and the team needs his goals. He will judge it.

      1. Mackans
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 10 days ago

        Yes true! He is fresh like you said and i think he will surprice us with a brace or hattrick now when many sells him. West Ham looked tight against Man C so yes i will captain Kane:)

  29. Ratatouille
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 10 days ago

    Would it be madness to take a hit for Vardy> Firminho?

    1. Mackans
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      Yes i think it would be madness, because Vardy plays against Newcastle (Maybe the worst defence in the league right now)

  30. okan58
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 10 days ago

    0 FT
    Bank 0.5

    Foster
    Daniels - Mee - Kabasele
    Richarlision - Salah - Zaha - Sane
    Morata - Kane - Firmino
    Subs: Elliot, T. Carroll, Smalling and Rangel.

    Should I change something?

    1. Tshelby
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      Rangel -> Dunk/Zegelaar/Kenny
      Rest is fine

    2. Yellin' in my Ear
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      Yes

    3. I Member
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      Nah, nothing for a hit.

    4. La Gazzetta
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      I'd try spend the 0.5 on Elliot or Rangel next week

    5. Davidinho
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 10 days ago

      Not for a hit, no. You're bench is very weak though and I'd be trying to get Hazard in the next couple of weeks