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6 December 2017 1215 comments
Prokoptas Prokoptas
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Regular readers of the Technical Area articles will no doubt be familiar with expected goals (xG), a key metric introduced to the Fantasy Football Scout Members’ area this year as a means of estimating goal scoring returns on the basis of chance quality.

This week, however, we are flipping our focus to examine the top goalkeepers over this year’s campaign and to introduce, for the first time, our related keeper-specific metric: expected goals prevented (xGP).

In brief, this data tallies the quantity and quality of chances a goalkeeper is faced with, in order to calculate a baseline of their expected goals conceded. From this number, we subtract the true number of goals that have beaten each goalkeeper, in order to determine the expected goals they have personally deterred.

This week’s Technical Area will be running the rule over how FPL’s highest-owned goalkeepers have performed in this particular metric thus far.

We also take a wider view of the position as it now stands, in light of the recent uncertainty surrounding the pitch time of budget-friendly options such as Rob Elliot and Julian Speroni.

  1. Scotty B
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Why is everyone so obsessed with Kane on here?

    1. Deano
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Can play a bit.

    2. AllanM
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      There’s an unhealthy obsession.

  2. HD7
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    For next GW who to play:

    RLC or DCL

    Bench 1:
    Mee, Walker, Mustafi, Richarlison

  3. Jubilanus / BSC Small Boys …
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Best mid for 5.3 or less... not RLC.

    Thanks in advance.

    1. DA Minnion (Former great)
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Doucoure

    2. the snazzy viking
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Surman or Doucoure

    3. Galza
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Young’s worth a go...

  4. MFFista
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Pope
    Alonso-Gomez -Monreal (Otamendi - TAA)
    Salah-Hazard(c)-Sterling-Gross-RLC
    Kane-Morata (Niasse)

    Who would you start:
    A) Gomez
    B) Otamendi

    1FT, save it?

  5. Iceball
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Planning ahead...
    A) Zee+Ogbonna(benchfodder most time except GW22)
    B) Sakho+Hunemeier fodder

    1. Football Weekender
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      I like the idea of stashing Ogbonna as a cheap third sub until the DGW. It’s something I’m looking at. Yes West Ham are terrible at present but so we’re Stoke last season and their defenders came out of their DGW very well when everyone was backing Man City assets.

  6. Demel
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Which would you start?

    A) DCL liv
    B) RLC BOU

    1. Wheato182
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Have both myself and starting RLC

      1. E25
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        this

    2. justmatt
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      I also have both and will be starting RLC

    3. jimmy.floyd
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      B

  7. Corgz Dark side of the Loon
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Do we think Jose is talking up Linderof or he really does like him ?? and his he nailed ahead of Jones ??

    1. Maddamotha
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Jones will play when fit imo.

  8. Jimjam
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Need to downgrade one of Kane or Aguero to fund Hazard.

    It's Aguero, for reasons of nailed-on-ness, right? Feel nervous transferring out a City attacker though.

    1. E25
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      I did Kun, I do have Sterling tho...

  9. Old Wulfrunian
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Dann was back in training.

  10. czechow
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Why is everyone transferring in Shaw? Played one game in the Champions league and people are buying him?! Am i missing some vital piece of information here?

    1. CloudSky
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Dont think anyone here bought him.

    2. FPL Maldini
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Have you met a casual?

      1. czechow
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Ahh - I see. Makes sense now. Most transferred in player per hour at the moment. Ridiculous.

  11. Maddi Son
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Best 2 to start?

    - Kiko
    - Otamendi
    - Daniels
    - RLC

  12. These stats are crap, and bear no relation. I don't know why - that is for someone else to suss out, but they are! 😕

    1. Deano
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      On to the reds a bit early tonight?

  13. Champions united
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Whom to captain
    1 haazard
    2 salah
    3 kane
    4 morata

    1. liiusions
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      1 for me. Armband hasn't left him since the Swansea game

  14. Maddamotha
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    What would you this with this lot?
    I have 2 fts. 0itb

    Foster (Elliot)
    Otamendi, Ward, Daniels, Jones (Mbemba)
    Salah, Hazard, Sterling, Chopou, Carroll
    Lukaku - Kane

    A) Lukaku and Daniels to Morata and Christensen (leaves me with 0itb)
    B) Lukaku and Chopou, to Firmino and Ramsey (leaves me with 0.3itb)
    C) Other

  15. Evasivo
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Nevermind Kane, time to sell Otamendi?

    1. liiusions
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Think I would be if I had him. Goal last weekend overshadows how poor defensively City have been the past few games

    2. Maddi Son
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Might be time to sell Salah too.

    3. MCY : mun 49 swa 510 TOT 117 BOU 498 new 362 cpl 504 WAT 486

      1. Maddamotha
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        What does this mean?

      2. Evasivo
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        It's not about fixtures for me with Ota,it's about his defensive form

        1. Well, I think he is playing well, fwiw. Fernandinho is a big miss ...

      3. gwitbrock
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Doosra these numbers completely undermine human judgement and the reality of how vulnerable Man City (or other dominant teams in seasons gone by) are and can be defensively without afecting their propensity to win games. I think with how the league has progressed from an attacking standpoint, wingback systems and front 3's etc., your system needs a shake up.

        1. Deano
          • 13 Years
          8 years, 9 days ago

          Grabs popcorn.

        2. I am all for undermining human judgement. Seeing as how crap it is, n'all ... 😉

          1. gwitbrock
            • 11 Years
            8 years, 9 days ago

            Can't disagree with you on that in this day and age. But I mean it completely takes 'the eye test' out of the equation. Small shifts in form at either end of the pitch or at least indicators to suggest possible shifts.

            Also in this case I think the issue is that your system is good at assessing fixture difficulty in terms of wins/losses and predicting players/teams having more chance of realizing their fantasy potential, but is incapable of accounting for teams enjoying this same freedom and success within games, but still conceding one goal, thereby souring them as defensive fpl options.

            1. gwitbrock
              • 11 Years
              8 years, 9 days ago

              Which in the current game is more and more common I think. Liverpool, City, Arsenal etc.

              1. Well, them's the breaks. But everyone on here is down on Liverpool - and Arsenal, come to think of it - but their home records stand up to scrutiny.

                1. gwitbrock
                  • 11 Years
                  8 years, 9 days ago

                  OK, as an example mind sharing your gw 17/18 numbers for Liv/Ars?

            2. Well, no, it does not take proper observation out. It is just a guide. But, the whole point, is that it is devoid of opinion, in that the same algorithm is applied without favour to all teams equally. It is, therefore, a very good starting point. 🙂

              1. gwitbrock
                • 11 Years
                8 years, 9 days ago

                The second part of my argument is the more important one, imo.

    4. Evasivo
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Defence wise he's been seriously poor, think I'm sold just wondering others opinions

  16. AzzaroMax99
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Is this squad set to go for weekend?

    Fabianski
    Azpi, Mee, Daniels, Dunk
    Sane, Salah, Ramsey, Sterling
    Morata, Kane(C)

    Elliot, Niasse, RLC, Mariappa

    Is this ok or to play 3-5-2 with RLC and bench Daniels?

  17. Colonel Klink
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Is the Chelsea central midfield basically Fabregas, Kanté and Drinkwater now? Or is Bakayoko ahead of Drinky?

    1. Maddi Son
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      A hydrated Drinkwater gets ahead of Bakayoko atm in my opinion.

      1. Colonel Klink
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        I think he’s the better player.

    2. gwitbrock
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Noone's ahead of drinky. First step is to admit it.

  18. FortunesAlwaysHiding
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Play Mee (WAT) or Zeegalaar (bur) this week?

    Thank you

    1. BUR : WAT 124
      WAT : bur -124

      1. FortunesAlwaysHiding
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        I understand that as Mee, right?

        1. Correct! 😀

      2. Colonel Klink
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Where do you get these numbers, Doosra? I find them very helpful.

        1. Colonel Klink?

          They are from my ticker. If you want a copy, just post an email.

          1. Colonel Klink
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 12 Years
            8 years, 9 days ago

            An email here?

  19. CloudSky
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Mark Clattenburg: "I still smile at the first time I came across Roy Keane in 2004. He screamed at us for a corner and I'm sure it was a goal kick but because he screamed at us so loudly, I gave a corner, I was that petrified of him."

  20. Carcaju
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Ben Davies + Niasse -> Christensen + Calvert Lewin

    Yes or no? If any of the prices change I won't be able to do this, so I'm seriously considering doing it tonight

    1. gwitbrock
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      i say yay

  21. UnitedXCI
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Courtois Speroni
    Otamendi Smalling Daniel Mee Mariappa
    Haz salah Gros Sterling RLC
    Niasse kane Morata
    0.0ITB 2FT

    Any suggestions on transfers ? Thank you

    1. Alex_thekid
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Daniels to moreno and Niasse to Dcl

  22. OBAMA
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Please help me pals..

    Fab / Elliot

    Mustafi / Naughton / Daniels / Ward / Mbemba

    Salah / Sane / Silva / Alli / Stephens

    Diouf / Kane / Firm

    (0.6m in the bank)

    Team is very shakey I know... thinking of getting in Hazard as have no Chelsea cover atm.

    Do you think I need to get Mustafi and Silva out or should I monitor?

    Thanks!

    1. OBAMA
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      please people... help this poor poor man!

    2. fishnil
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Why do you think Alli is better than Silva? Spurs are not setting any grounds on fire this season that it warrants to have 2 attackers. Alli + Silva -> Richarlison+ Hazard

      1. OBAMA
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        silva plays 90 mins, sane doesnt

  23. The Royal Robin
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Any hits necessary (Wilson > Austin for -4?) or GTG?

    Pope
    Maguire Christensen Alonso
    Salah (V) Zaha Sterling Richarlison
    Kane (C) Morata Wilson

    Foster Moreno Carroll Cedric

    1. OBAMA
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      I'm no Fantasy pro but don't do Wilson -> Austin for a hit

      1. gwitbrock
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        I thought your stance was supposed to be Yes We Can!

  24. Jafooli
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Just asked Siri to pick my WC team 😮 wtf...

    1. The Big Fella
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      and the result..............?

    2. What did it say? 😆

    3. The Wise Owl
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Hazard can't play in goal

  25. ooooo
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Hazard safe to captain this week? Not sure how likely he is to get rested.

    1. zotter
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Won’t get rested. 99% start

  26. ZakAFC_
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Pope
    Azpi, Kolasinac, Ward
    Salah, Sterling, Groß, Richarlison
    Morata, Kane, Vardy

    Elliot, RLC, Daniels, Mariappa

    1FT, 0.2 ITB

    Azpi > Christensen, Groß > Hazard, Vardy > 5.1 worth a -8? Still have my WC.

    1. OBAMA
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      WC Bruh

      1. ZakAFC_
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Instead of a -8? Still like most of my squad.

      2. zotter
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Save wc for gw 20 and get a dgw plan.

    2. gwitbrock
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      I don't think there's a 5.1 worth getting tbh. As Gross has a good fixture this week maybe save for one week and do Azpi/Elliot/Vardy/Gross to Christensen/Speroni/DLC/Hazard for -8 after Saturday.

  27. Maddi Son
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Recon Pogba will go down to 7.9 over the next couple of weeks?

    1. We Will Klopp you
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Yes

    2. Red Dagger ✪
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Yup.

    3. Dannyb
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Hope so

  28. Carcaju
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Bottomed

    Ben Davies + Niasse -> Christensen + Calvert Lewin

    Yes or no? If any of the prices change I won't be able to do this, so I'm seriously considering doing it tonight

    1. We Will Klopp you
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Go for it

      1. Carcaju
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        You know if any of these 4 players are likely to drop or raise tonight?

        1. Red Dagger ✪
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          8 years, 9 days ago

          Doesn't look like it.

        2. OBAMA
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 9 days ago

          Calvin Lewin could rise fo sho

        3. We Will Klopp you
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 9 days ago

          This is your best guide when it comes to price rises/falls

          http://www.fplstatistics.co.uk/

          1. Carcaju
            • 10 Years
            8 years, 9 days ago

            Thanks a lot guys. Cheers!

    2. zotter
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      Definitely. No injury risk as Chelsea have played and dlc won’t play tomorrow

      1. Carcaju
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Thanks! And even if Christensen isn't 100% nailed, I have 3 defenders that play for sure so I guess it's worth the shot

  29. Jafooli
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Who's been your favourite Secretary General of the United Nations?

    1. Deano
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      That guy from the Moon.

      1. Jafooli
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 9 days ago

        Wanky-Spoon?

  30. FPLAdmiral
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 9 days ago

    Is Alonso worth the money chaps? Undecided on A or B -

    (A) Better XI - Alonso, Mustafi, Mbemba (Bench), Niasse (Bench)
    (B) Better Squad - Christensen, Otamendi, Kiko (Rotate), DCL (Rotate) +0.2m

    Pope (Elliot)
    __, __, __, Moreno, Mee
    Hazard, Salah, Sterling, Richarlison, RLC
    __, Kane, Morata.

    1. zotter
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 9 days ago

      B