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2 February 2018 10 comments
Hutch_James Hutch_James
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Each week we are reviewing the aggregated predictions on Superbru’s Premier League Predictor game, using the collective Wisdom of the Crowd predictions to guide our fantasy football thinking.

Please join the FFS league here and add your own predictions to the data – the more there are, the more accurate the crowd should be (in theory).

GAMEWEEK 25 REVIEW

Only the wins for Liverpool and Manchester City were a given in Round 25, whilst just 1% expected Chelsea to lost to Bournemouth at Stamford Bridge, and a mere one person in the whole game predicted a 0-3 scoreline.

Swansea’s second big scalp in a row was also a shock, and perhaps the crowd will start to give them more credit as they climb the table.

Here are the Gameweek 25 results in descending order of predictability:

Well done to Radoslav Petrasek from the UK for winning the Yellow Cap in Round 25, with three exact score picks.

It was also a huge week for Mr Crowd Wisdom – using the aggregated predictions of the crowd – who climbed 18 places up to 34th in the FFS pool, out of over 460 people.

The aggregated predictions of the community are making better predictions than most individual players in the game, suggesting that there is credibility in the Wisdom of the Crowd concept.

GAMEWEEK 26 PREVIEW

Here is the Expected Goals chart for each fixture in GW26:

And here is the ranking of teams in order of Expected Goals Scored and Conceded:

This weekend looks a little lighter on the goalscoring front, according to the crowd.  Manchester United are at the summit of the predicted goals table for the first time in a while, with a tempting home fixture versus Huddersfield, which might bring Alexis Sanchez back into consideration.

Manchester City are also predicted to do well, as usual, whilst people are keeping faith in Chelsea, who people think will score at least two goals away at Watford.

The Man United defence looks essential, with few people giving Huddersfield a chance of scoring at Old Trafford, whilst Crystal Palace, Bournemouth and West Brom are fancied in the budget defensive bracket.

Is there anything that catches your eye in these predictions?

Good luck!

10 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Sadio
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Sterling to Mkhitaryan is what my gut is saying to do.

    I think I'm going to do it.

    1. GreenArrows
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Step away from the keyboard

  2. asquishypotato
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    No real clean sheets actually looks good for this week, as much as I’d like Hudd to turn up at Trafford I don’t think they will.

    343 to make its comeback this gameweek?

    1. Reedy
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Well, Utd look well positioned for one, then. But aside from that I agree - CSs look thin on the ground this week. City maybe, Leicester or Arsenal at a push (that would mean in-form Theo blanking against his former club though).

      A quick check tells me we've had at least 6 CSs in each of the last 6 GWs though, so who knows...

  3. Reedy
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Cheers for this!

  4. Woy of the Wovers
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    The more I read these articles, the more I think the wisdom-of-crowds idea is too prone to group-think. When the crowd predicts a result with 99% or 1% success they are clearly poor at indicating likelihood.

    For "crowd-wisdom" to work properly, the guesses have to be independent and unbiased. Here everyone is reading the same stories and comments.

    1. Reedy
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      It's simply a predictions poll. I don't know how anyone else uses it, but I take it as another source to consider, along with historical stats and bookies' odds. None of these should be relied upon to heavily, but all are useful tools to weigh against one another.

      1. Reedy
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        *too heavily

    2. RedLightning
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      The crowd are just predicting results, not the likelihood of those results.

      If 99% of the crowd predict the same result, that doesn't mean that they expect the chances of it being right are 99 to1 - it just means that 99% of them think it is the most likely result.

  5. Fi_fpl addict
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 2 months ago

    Interesting predictions looking back tot Liv 2-2

    And Man U an only cs, look fed to this weeks