Inactivity always leaves me feeling uneasy. No matter how favourable the assessment of my squad at the time, the decision to sit on my hands and “let things be” never comes easy.
It’s even more difficult ahead of today’s deadline. There are obvious blemishes to address, but the landscape created by the FA fifth round and Gameweek 31 promotes a stoic patient approach.
I’ve looked long and hard, but weighing up the percentages, I still can’t convince myself to use a transfer.
Nicolas Otamendi probably has a 50% chance of starting, Ogbonna has roughly 30% (being kind) of providing some points as his replacement from the bench. My proposed transfer – Virgil van Dijk in for the City defender – could beat them both, though he has a 98% chance of making a calamitous error with the boos of the St Mary’s faithful ringing in his ears.
It’s the value of the potential short-term gain, versus the value of more information on form, injuries and, crucially, Gameweek 31. As the latest subscriber to the Gameweek 35 Free Hit, it just doesn’t seem worth it.
The accepted thinking is to attempt to navigate through the impact of the FA Cup fifth round, but use the results and information prior to Gameweek 28 to guide transfers. Having two free trades at this point looks advisable and possibly a key advantage.
The theory is that there is enough opportunity in this tactic to set up an “acceptable” line-up for what remains of Gameweek 31.
As soon as the new chip arrived in our armoury, it was presumed that we’d deploy it for the diminished FA Cup Quarter-Final weekend.
But the ability to use the Wildcard – most likely in Gameweek 32 – to load up early on the teams confirmed to have double Gameweeks to come, could prove powerful.
In addition, the benefits of fielding a full XI in Gameweek 31 may yet be minimal, certainly compared with the impact of having to navigate out of Gameweek 35 – when the semi-final blanks will occur – with assets for double Gameweek 37 still intact.
For all the planning we devise at this point, there are still so many unknowns that could rip up our theories.
But one thing is certain; we need all this planning to pay off.
The strategies above, while seemingly sound, are far from straightforward to explain or execute. Because of that, we will try to convince ourselves that, as studied and meticulous Fantasy managers, this is a time when our efforts pay off.
We look forward to this part of the season, presuming that we can make up ground or stretch our lead over the Gameweeks that remain.
But perhaps this remains a dangerous assumption.
If I do stick with the Gameweek 35 Free Hit, I’ll be fascinated to look back and assess just how much of an advantage was gained.
If ever we needed a stark reminder that our tactics can sometimes be counter-productive, then Fusen’s latest analysis tool provides it.
Revealing our points tallies had we taken our hands off the wheel and made no transfers, it shows that I am just 11 points better off having made nine changes since Gameweek 20.
On that basis, I could have spared you a lot of Saturday morning wittering and myself hours of anguish and anxiety.
Maybe I should start being more relaxed about doing nothing.
