Distracted by the tendrils of a cold and with two toddlers to care for this morning, I make no apology for the curtailed Pre-amble, or indeed the typos that creep in.
In a week where we asked ourselves whether the season had become “dull”, I felt compelled to write more on the decision that, according to accepted thinking, is already made for us.
I should captain Mohamed Salah.
No thought is required. The numbers back it up, the logic is clear and to even entertain the idea of an alternative is an unnecessary and foolhardy risk.
But harking back to that Hot Topic, I do wonder if Salah is contributing to the malaise.
The captaincy is probably the most important decision we make. More than any single transfer, it should have the ability to make or break our Gameweek.
But Salah has not only killed the need to make a choice, he’s also reduced its impact.
I can see myself handing the Egyptian the armband for his evening clash with Newcastle, but I can’t envisage fist pumping the air in jubilation when he scores.
Instead, there might be a wry smile of relief, but how wide can it be?
My captain would have ensured that I’ve kept pace and not given up ground.
But I want my decision to be more than that, I want it to have real consequence should it prove “correct”.
Salah’s talent deserves to make him a difference maker, but he’s become anything but in Fantasy Football.
This all harks back to the floor and ceiling theory.
While this can be applied to Salah and Harry Kane, it can be extended further to our perception of our Gameweek as a whole.
Captaining Salah feels like we guarantee a high floor. Our minimum score is raised, and we protect our rank, ensuring that any drop should be minor.
By turning to an alternative, even when it is Kane with six goals in six Gameweeks, we’re risking that.
Instead, we are perhaps attempting to achieve a higher ceiling. Taking the chance that our captain can outscore Salah and help lift our Gameweek above the norm.
As Jonty pointed out in this week’s ScoutCast, the scale of that ceiling can depend on our degree of risk.
Is Kane really enough? To find a real differential do we not need to look to Sadio Mane or Eden Hazard?
There’s logic here, though that scenario really relies on both Salah and Kane failing as the majority captains, and that seems very unlikely.
That pair are extraordinary players. I suspect that the duel between them for the Golden Boot is very real, with both hell-bent on scoring as many goals as possible from here on in.
They almost deserve better than to have a million plus Fantasy managers hoping they fail. But that’s the scenario that has developed.
Captaining Salah offers me a modest prize and the inclination to cheer every Kane miss.
The reverse is not much better and ensures that I’ll spend my evening willing Salah to fail. But at least the jackpot just might be bigger.
Either way, I can’t help but wish I could just celebrate both.
