Metrics
20 April 2018 3973 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
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In our latest dip into the Fantasy Premier League metrics, we look back at the results of the chips employed for Double Gameweek 34 before looking ahead to the much-anticipated use of the Free Hit for the blanks in Gameweek 35.

As we’ve seen, Gameweek 34 was a relatively high-scoring one, with the overall average score being 64 (not including transfer hits).

I calculated that the top 10k and 100k averages with hits factored in, and the results are a massive 84.3 points for the top 10k and 81.2 for the top 100k. Pretty impressive.

The effect of using Bench Boost chip helped many to beat even this high average.

Managers in the top 100k reached as high as 134 points this week, while one 10k manager scored 131 points.

Granted, we have seen higher scores in previous Double Gameweeks, but this week was not as bad as it was threatening to be, with many managers scoring 90+ points and a rash of green arrows.

To quantify this more, let’s have a look at the points the top 10k managers gained by using the different chips this week.

Chip UsedPointsPoints for all other managersPoints for managers who used no chips
Bench Boost94.977.874.7
Triple Captain83.384.574.7
Free Hit80.284.474.4
Wildcard83.284.374.4

 

We see that those who used Bench Boost were the only ones to beat their rivals, while the other chips helped managers gain over the “chipless” managers, though they still lost out on average compared to the teams around them.

Bench Boosters scored an impressive average of 94.9 points, which gave them a 20.1 points edge over normal teams and a 17.1 points gain over everyone who didn’t use that chip.

Meanwhile, those who turned to the Triple Captain scored an average of 83.3 points, which is lower than the remaining top 10k managers average of 84.5, meaning that they appeared to lose some ground.

This makes sense as the the main Triple Captain choices this week – Harry Kane, Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy – scored just a single goal over the two fixtures, while another, Alexis Sanchez, managed only two points.

Managers who tried something different and went for the use of Free Hit lost even more ground having scored an average of 80.2 points, compared to 84.4 points for the managers around them.

So, it has been a real success for most Bench Boosters this week. But was it because of their bench, or did they just select more wisely?

To examine this, I checked the substitutes of all Bench Boosters this week to get an idea of how much their reserves contributed.

Many managers left some big hitters on the bench because it doesn’t matter, so for a fair comparison, I rearranged every team so that the bench contained the players who didn’t feature, plus the cheapest assets who would normally not be in the starting XI.

The result was that, on average, the bench added 18.4 points for Bench Boosters in the top 10k and 17.8 points in the top 100k.

This is not a bad result, but also not spectacular, given that, under normal circumstances, we’d expect two points per fixture for each bench player will result in a Bench Boost of 16 points.

Still, those 18.4 points were the determining factor in the 20 points gained by the Bench Boosting managers this week.

In fact, many did better than that average bench.

For instance, look at this  impressive 41-point bench in the top 10k.

However, if you feel that your week didn’t go well, don’t worry: you are not alone.

You couldn’t be doing worse than Bench Boosters who got exactly zero points from their bench, like these top 50k teams here, here and here.

There is also this manager who saw his rank drop from 17k to 128k in one week by scoring just one point total 65(-64).

So, don’t panic yet; there are more opportunities for big scores on the horizon.

Speaking of which, let’s now have a look at the Gameweek 35 blanks and the opportunity open to managers who still own their Free Hit chip.

They are not at all a majority in the top 10k, with a percentage of just 33% as we can see in the updated chip use figure below.

members

But it seems certain that most of the managers with Free Hit intact will activate the chip for Gameweek 35 to help navigate the blanks.

Many of the managers who don’t have the chip used it for the other blanks in Gameweek 31; at that point, there was some extensive debate on whether that was the correct decision.

This is yet to be decided, but in any case, here are some statistics to help both managers plan for their Free Hit moves or transfers this week.

Teams that already used Free Hit currently have an average of 7.4 players with a fixture in Gameweek 35, so with 1.17 free transfers that could raise their number to 8.57 players without hits.

The distribution of current players ownership for non-Free Hit owners is shown below.
members

So, it seems that the majority have eight players, which could be raised to nine or 10 with transfer hits; that’s hardly disastrous in a Gameweek with just six fixtures.

But, of course, it’s quality not quantity that really matters.

The Free Hitters will have the advantage of picking players with absolute freedom this week to counter potential rotation and form fluctuation.

Therefore, let’s check on the current most owned players in the non-Free Hitter teams destined to start for them in Gameweek 35.

members

The most likely players to be very popular in non-Free Hit teams will include Nick Pope in goal, Andy Robertson, Nicolas Otamendi and Matthew Lowton in defence, while Mohamed Salah and Luka Milivojevic populate midfields.

The three main strikers are all without a fixture and that could be the area where managers will use their transfers.

Not shown in the image are the duo of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (36.6%) and Roberto Firmino (35.6%), who are likely to lead the lines of many non-Free Hit teams, but the remaining percentage of managers will look at other striking options too.

Finally, we check on the Premier League teams that are most represented in managers’ teams without the Free Hit chip to play.

members

We see that Liverpool is the team most represented in non-Free Hit teams, with an average of 1.8 players.

Burnley are second (1.4), and after that, we find an average of one player per team from Manchester City, Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Newcastle.

These figures might just help the current crop of Free Hitters when it comes to player selection as they bid to get an edge on rivals who have already activated the chip.

  1. FPL Blow-In
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    How’s she looking?

    Butland
    Walker, Otamendi, Milner
    Salah, Mane, Zaha, Shaqiri, Arnie
    Jesus, Laca

    Hennessy, Pérez, Baines, Lowton .3 itb

    1. mcrayeps
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Nice..

    2. Uncle Gamst
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Good

    3. TheAbear53
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Very nice differential team... confident of Laca over Auba ?

      1. FPL Blow-In
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Confident, no. I think Lacazette will start regardless of wether Auba does or not. I don’t see him playing a full 90 though.

    4. Feed tha Sheep
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I Would def want sterling

      1. FPL Blow-In
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Can’t have em all unfortunately... I have 3 city. Bilva and Foden likely to get mins imo also.

        1. Feed tha Sheep
          • 13 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Fair enough but I would much rather double up in attack than defence

          1. FPL Blow-In
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 13 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            I can see the logic. Likely to score 2+ goals.

    5. Bob McMayday
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Man City clean sheet could really see you do well. Good differential FH team

    6. pjomara
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      No man city mid could be costly

      1. FPL Blow-In
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Most likely team for a CS imo. Those two boys can get attacking returns on their day. I’m hoping it can work. Could fail miserably. I see limited mins for the city wingers though and own Lacazette also. Don’t want 2-3 of my starting XI getting 60mins only.

  2. G-Whizz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Great article again Rag, is there any reason for no Everton players in the last graph or is the figure 0.0%?

  3. Rik Waller
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Purposely avoided all RMFHTs this week to avoid influence.

    Butland Grant
    VVD Mustafi Baines Kiko Long
    Salah Mane Sterling Sane Zaha
    Jesus Laca Crouch

    Assuming it's probably template. Am I right?

    1. MTPockets
        7 years, 10 months ago

        very

        1. TheAbear53
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          very right ?

      • Clintymints
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        very

        1. Rik Waller
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Thought as much. Team pretty much picks itself after the Liverpool leak

          1. FPL Blow-In
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 13 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            You have no Milner though 😉

            1. Rik Waller
              • 8 Years
              7 years, 10 months ago

              Just switched him in for VVD 🙂

    2. mcrayeps
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A) Sane + Lacazette
      B) KDB + Welbeck
      C) Silva + Aubameyang

      Which one is the most explosive?

      1. Bggz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Pooof

        1. mcrayeps
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Pooof?

      2. Bob McMayday
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        A

      3. magnet
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        B

    3. Tmel
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Baines or PVA? No other coverage

      1. mcrayeps
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Baines

      2. Feed tha Sheep
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Baines

      3. Rik Waller
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Baines because his initials match his position

        1. Rik Waller
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          And he's on pens

    4. camarozz
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      To fit Zaha in i have to choose one of the following two in a back 3 with Bellerin

      A) Lascalles + Milner

      B) Baines + Klavan

      Afraid to go without Zaha tbh.

      1. Netley Lucas
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        B, keep Monday night alive

        1. Bob McMayday
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Assume you have no plans on Monday night

      2. G-Whizz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        B

    5. Feed tha Sheep
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Mane or Ozil for this week only?

      1. Bggz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Mane

      2. Magic Bean
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Mane

    6. pressdpm
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Anyone doubling up on any defence this gameweek?

      1. Rik Waller
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Double Stoke GK!

      2. Magic Bean
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Possibly Crystal Palace

      3. FPL Blow-In
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        City

        1. FPL Blow-In
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          I had pool also but changed Karius and Ozil to Butland and Mane.

    7. Weilong7
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Suggestions for FT/WC team for GW35? Thanks

    8. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Is Gundogan really only an option for this week rather than for rest of season with Fernandinho back from suspension in week 36?

    9. Magic Bean
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Which one folks?
      A) Klavan and Butland
      B) Gomez and Hennesey (double up with PVA)

      1. Bob McMayday
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        A

        1. Magic Bean
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Cheers

    10. HurriKane
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Whos a threat to kyle walker spot? i think hes the most secure city defender. Ota has 3 other centre backs to deal with (when stones returns)

    11. firetog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      How confident are we that Laca starts instead of Aubameyang ?

      1. Magic Bean
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Maybe both start

      2. GertJan
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        One doesn't have to exclude the other.

      3. Bob McMayday
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I think Laca will start up top with Auba out wide just like last week

        1. Clintymints
          • 16 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          I do also

          Auba could still kill it tbh he could do better if anything

      4. dunas_dog
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I can see both starting

      5. firetog
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        So not worried by the trial run theory for Thursday ?

      6. magnet
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Welbeck will start not sure on the other two

    12. Feed tha Sheep
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Thoughts on Burnley def this week?Are they not a better option (or as good a chance) for a cleanie than Stoke or Palace?

      1. Uncle Gamst
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Can see a Stoke 0 Burnley 0

      2. Ten Season Wonder
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Stoke gonna battle like dogs as they must win no at all costs.

      3. Magic Bean
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Not a lot of clean sheets recently.

      4. Clintymints
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Don't mind them myself tbh

        haven't seen any in the fh teams though

      5. FPL Blow-In
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I think out of Burnley/Stoke/Palace/Watford that Palace are the most likely of a CS for some reason.

      6. G-Whizz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Clean sheet odds: Implied chance of a clean sheet
        STO 2.62 38%
        BUR 3.10 32%

        Fixture odds:
        Stoke 13/10
        Draw 23/10
        Burnley 5/2
        https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/comment/18041032

    13. Danno - Emre Canada
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Bosh, potentially got 11 out, no cover mind and first time this season playing a 4-5-1. Got an expensive bench. Good luck all!

    14. Ten Season Wonder
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      How's this? Bench in correct order?

      Butland
      Baines - VVD - Bellerin
      Salah(c) - Mane - KDB - Sterling - Zaha
      Jesus(vc) - Auba

      Subs: GK-fodder; Crouch, Long, Bauer.

    15. fish66
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Free Hit - GTG?

      Butland
      Baines Klavan Lowton
      KDB(vc) Salah(C) Sterling Zaha Mane
      Jesus Lacazette

      Hart, Long, Crouch, Kiko

      1. Legomané
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Looks good

      2. Uncle Gamst
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Mega

    16. Legomané
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      ‪Any thoughts on this FH squad (0.2 ITB) - reluctant to lose Auba as my chasing rival will probably hold him...Mili good bench cover too 🙂 cheers ‬

      Dubravka
      Klavan Tomkins Lowton
      Salah Mané Sterling Sané
      Jesus Lacazette Aubameyang

      (3.9 Milivojevic Long Dummet)

    17. Forever In Our Shadow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Totally off topic. When Wenger started at Arsenal he had David Dein at the club who was instrumental in getting him and the star players to the club. Wenger has taken alot of stick over recent years about recruitment and ive been thinking that it was when Dein left that the down turn seems to begin. Not a gooner by any means but he has is a legend not only at Arsenal but the Premier League in general. I wish Wenger all the best and hope another manager with modern vision takes the job. I just hope that Arsenal change their transfer and contract negotiation policy ans really start building a sqaud that will give us FPL managers even more options than we have now.

      1. SAY MY NAME
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        DD was huge asset to the club, and subsequently huge loss, had the opportunity to return with 'red holdings' (think that was it's name, investment vehicle for Usmanov) but takeover attempt not successful as other shareholders wouldn't sell, would have been nice to see DD and AW team up again, and get rid of Kroenke

        always been an AW fan, but probably time for a change, hope this way he can leave with dignity and respect and thanks, greatest manager for AFC

    18. Abusive_Sgt_Daelrhos
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      How do we know if Mane will play/start? Klopp knows his priorities, Roma game is too soon imo

      1. Forever In Our Shadow
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Who knows? Just got to hope Kloop is of the belief, redt is for pussies.

      2. MTPockets
          7 years, 10 months ago

          We don't but seems best guess.
          https://twitter.com/AnfieldExpress/status/987364885381165056

        • MadridistaRants
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Anfield Express leaked the lineup. Been spot on with it for around 12 games now.

      3. NestorC
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Sane or Ozil this week only?

        1. Uncle Gamst
          • 14 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Sane

        2. Forever In Our Shadow
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          S

        3. NestorC
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Cheers

      4. yanky
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        please help!! Cheers!!

        a) Karius vs Butland
        b) Monreal vs Mustafi
        c) Silva vs Sane

      5. toerag
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Stirling or Jesus for cap???

        1. Uncle Gamst
          • 14 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Salah for me

          1. HD7
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            Currently on Jesus but still not sure

        2. Forever In Our Shadow
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Jesus. Stirling is in Scotland.

          1. FPL Virgin
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            What? Link?

            1. Forever In Our Shadow
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 12 Years
              7 years, 10 months ago

              Lol Virg. Stirling is a city. Sterling is probably in Manchester. 😉

              1. FPL Virgin
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 9 Years
                7 years, 10 months ago

                😳

              1. toerag
                • 15 Years
                7 years, 10 months ago

                hahah :-)))))

                I was up in Stirling a couple of yrs ago. Castle was good! The Gathering was a good day too!

      6. Yank Revolution
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        FH team, have at it

        Butland (Hart)
        Bellerin/Kompany/Baines (Long/Dummett)
        Salah/Mane/Sterling/Zaha (King)
        Laca/Firm/Jesus

        Is Firm rly a doubt?

        1. Uncle Gamst
          • 14 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Anfield Express thinks so, rest of team is solid. Downgrade Bellerin and get Auba for Bobby?

          1. Yank Revolution
            • 14 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            Unsure I want two Arsenal fwds -
            Thx for feedback

      7. Park the bus
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Gomez or Tomkins?

      8. HD7
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Sterling or Jesus as C?

        1. Ten Season Wonder
          • 12 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Jesus of them two

        2. F4L
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Sterling

        3. Forever In Our Shadow
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          J

      9. Ten Season Wonder
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        G2G please folks... Bench in correct order?

        Butland
        Baines - Klavan - Bellerin
        Salah(c) - Mane - KDB - Sterling - Zaha
        Jesus(vc) - Auba

        Subs: GK-fodder; Crouch, Long, Bauer.

        1. TLF
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Almost identical to mine below but you have gone for Auba instead of Laca 🙂

      10. TLF
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Due to concerns about Sane rotation (albeit small concerns) I've had a reshuffle, means only one player on bench who could come on but have fitted KDB in....thoughts ?

        Butland
        Baines, Bellerin, Milner (Long)
        Salah, Mane, Sterling, KDB, Zaha
        Laca, Jesus

      11. Alli
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Hennessey (DDG)
        Lowton - Tarkowski - Kiko - (Davies - Chilwell)
        Salah(c) - Milivojevic - (Mahrez - Son - Willian)
        Barnes - (Kane - Lukaku)

        No FH - 1 FT - 0 ITB

        1. Mahrez + Son > Sterling + D.Silva?
        2. Other?

      12. F4L
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Auba to Jesus for free?

        1. MTPockets
            7 years, 10 months ago

            I would.