Metrics
20 April 2018 3973 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
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In our latest dip into the Fantasy Premier League metrics, we look back at the results of the chips employed for Double Gameweek 34 before looking ahead to the much-anticipated use of the Free Hit for the blanks in Gameweek 35.

As we’ve seen, Gameweek 34 was a relatively high-scoring one, with the overall average score being 64 (not including transfer hits).

I calculated that the top 10k and 100k averages with hits factored in, and the results are a massive 84.3 points for the top 10k and 81.2 for the top 100k. Pretty impressive.

The effect of using Bench Boost chip helped many to beat even this high average.

Managers in the top 100k reached as high as 134 points this week, while one 10k manager scored 131 points.

Granted, we have seen higher scores in previous Double Gameweeks, but this week was not as bad as it was threatening to be, with many managers scoring 90+ points and a rash of green arrows.

To quantify this more, let’s have a look at the points the top 10k managers gained by using the different chips this week.

Chip Used Points Points for all other managers Points for managers who used no chips
Bench Boost 94.9 77.8 74.7
Triple Captain 83.3 84.5 74.7
Free Hit 80.2 84.4 74.4
Wildcard 83.2 84.3 74.4

 

We see that those who used Bench Boost were the only ones to beat their rivals, while the other chips helped managers gain over the “chipless” managers, though they still lost out on average compared to the teams around them.

Bench Boosters scored an impressive average of 94.9 points, which gave them a 20.1 points edge over normal teams and a 17.1 points gain over everyone who didn’t use that chip.

Meanwhile, those who turned to the Triple Captain scored an average of 83.3 points, which is lower than the remaining top 10k managers average of 84.5, meaning that they appeared to lose some ground.

This makes sense as the the main Triple Captain choices this week – Harry Kane, Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy – scored just a single goal over the two fixtures, while another, Alexis Sanchez, managed only two points.

Managers who tried something different and went for the use of Free Hit lost even more ground having scored an average of 80.2 points, compared to 84.4 points for the managers around them.

So, it has been a real success for most Bench Boosters this week. But was it because of their bench, or did they just select more wisely?

To examine this, I checked the substitutes of all Bench Boosters this week to get an idea of how much their reserves contributed.

Many managers left some big hitters on the bench because it doesn’t matter, so for a fair comparison, I rearranged every team so that the bench contained the players who didn’t feature, plus the cheapest assets who would normally not be in the starting XI.

The result was that, on average, the bench added 18.4 points for Bench Boosters in the top 10k and 17.8 points in the top 100k.

This is not a bad result, but also not spectacular, given that, under normal circumstances, we’d expect two points per fixture for each bench player will result in a Bench Boost of 16 points.

Still, those 18.4 points were the determining factor in the 20 points gained by the Bench Boosting managers this week.

In fact, many did better than that average bench.

For instance, look at this  impressive 41-point bench in the top 10k.

However, if you feel that your week didn’t go well, don’t worry: you are not alone.

You couldn’t be doing worse than Bench Boosters who got exactly zero points from their bench, like these top 50k teams here, here and here.

There is also this manager who saw his rank drop from 17k to 128k in one week by scoring just one point total 65(-64).

So, don’t panic yet; there are more opportunities for big scores on the horizon.

Speaking of which, let’s now have a look at the Gameweek 35 blanks and the opportunity open to managers who still own their Free Hit chip.

They are not at all a majority in the top 10k, with a percentage of just 33% as we can see in the updated chip use figure below.

members

But it seems certain that most of the managers with Free Hit intact will activate the chip for Gameweek 35 to help navigate the blanks.

Many of the managers who don’t have the chip used it for the other blanks in Gameweek 31; at that point, there was some extensive debate on whether that was the correct decision.

This is yet to be decided, but in any case, here are some statistics to help both managers plan for their Free Hit moves or transfers this week.

Teams that already used Free Hit currently have an average of 7.4 players with a fixture in Gameweek 35, so with 1.17 free transfers that could raise their number to 8.57 players without hits.

The distribution of current players ownership for non-Free Hit owners is shown below.
members

So, it seems that the majority have eight players, which could be raised to nine or 10 with transfer hits; that’s hardly disastrous in a Gameweek with just six fixtures.

But, of course, it’s quality not quantity that really matters.

The Free Hitters will have the advantage of picking players with absolute freedom this week to counter potential rotation and form fluctuation.

Therefore, let’s check on the current most owned players in the non-Free Hitter teams destined to start for them in Gameweek 35.

members

The most likely players to be very popular in non-Free Hit teams will include Nick Pope in goal, Andy Robertson, Nicolas Otamendi and Matthew Lowton in defence, while Mohamed Salah and Luka Milivojevic populate midfields.

The three main strikers are all without a fixture and that could be the area where managers will use their transfers.

Not shown in the image are the duo of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (36.6%) and Roberto Firmino (35.6%), who are likely to lead the lines of many non-Free Hit teams, but the remaining percentage of managers will look at other striking options too.

Finally, we check on the Premier League teams that are most represented in managers’ teams without the Free Hit chip to play.

members

We see that Liverpool is the team most represented in non-Free Hit teams, with an average of 1.8 players.

Burnley are second (1.4), and after that, we find an average of one player per team from Manchester City, Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Newcastle.

These figures might just help the current crop of Free Hitters when it comes to player selection as they bid to get an edge on rivals who have already activated the chip.

3,973 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. willl
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Sterling v Salah is very close.

    Swansea concede more shots, West Brom concede more goals.

    Sterling probably will get 80+ mins, Salah less likely to.

    Tough one.

    1. Clintymints
      • 17 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      On a fh, I think it's wise to stick with salah cap and let the other players get the baps in

      keeps you good with the other lads doing the biz.

      Not on fh, then it comes down to necessary personal gains

      1. willl
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        lol it comes down to who scores more 😉

        1. G-Whizz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 3 months ago

          This

        2. Clintymints
          • 17 Years
          8 years, 3 months ago

          Yeah, logically speaking, of course!

          But the fear factor is real

          Sold Salah last week and it was torture

          Can't do it again!

    2. Nomar
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      West Brom have tightened up a bit since they sacked Pardew, though.

    3. syke63
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      WB with new manager on a high after utd win. Swansea could be on hiding to new champions looking to put on a show. Tough call for sure.

    4. G-Whizz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Sterling for me...

      1. Nomar
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Same here.

  2. Reggie Nainggolan
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    What's the chances of firmino starting? And auba n Robertson

    1. Dsmythy
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Where you been 😀

    2. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Firmino 0%
      Auba 55%
      Robertson 0%

    3. syke63
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      These guys read the news

    4. Gallas25
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Leaked line up on anfield express says Firmino and Robertson don't start. Mane and Salah do

  3. pressdpm
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Thoughts on my FH?

    Pickford
    Mustafi - Kiko - Van Dijk
    Sterling - De Bruyne - Salah - Mane
    Jesus - Lacazette - Deeney

    3.9 - Lowton - Loftus Cheek - 3.9

    1. Ten Season Wonder
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Deeney massive diff, fair play hope it works for you

      1. pressdpm
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Yeah, taking a punt. Season is already going bad enough lately, figured I'd take a gamble.

    2. Geezer
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Captain?

      1. pressdpm
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Jesus

        1. Geezer
          • 15 Years
          8 years, 3 months ago

          Cheers. Me too atm

  4. Ten Season Wonder
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    G2G please folks... Bench in correct order?

    Butland
    Baines - Klavan - Bellerin
    Salah(c) - Mane - KDB - Sterling - Zaha
    Jesus(vc) - Auba

    Subs: GK-fodder; Crouch, Long, Bauer

    1. Root
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      No. Crouch last.

      1. Tiki-Taka
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        agreed

        1. Tiki-Taka
          • 15 Years
          8 years, 3 months ago

          also Bauer 1st, Long 2n

          1. Ten Season Wonder
            • 12 Years
            8 years, 3 months ago

            First XI okay?

      2. Ten Season Wonder
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Bauer, Long, Crouch?

    2. pressdpm
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Like it

  5. Arctic monkeys
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Anyone here going with Milner ? Interesting oop option and should start

    1. Ten Season Wonder
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Want to but he's 6mils

      1. Arctic monkeys
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Going Ings as 3rd attacker and spreading the cash

    2. Bob McMayday
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      I've got him in as it stands. not sure if I'll change my mind

    3. MTPockets
      8 years, 3 months ago

      yep

    4. syke63
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      He's a good option but think Salah will be on pens

  6. dunas_dog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    No FH. Best Alonso replacement for 35 and through to end of season from !

    A Van Dijk
    B Kompany
    C Mawson
    D Lascelles

    1. Ten Season Wonder
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      B

    2. Legomané
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Dummet or Yedlin and free up the funds

  7. Tiki-Taka
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Any idea who to pick between D.Silva and Sane? And reasons why? Tough decision

    1. Bob McMayday
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      I've went with Sane, Jesus, Sterling. purely because they will hopefully be playing as the front 3. Not to say Silva or KDB don't get forward but seems logical to me to go for the most attacking players

    2. Uncle Gamst
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Sane as explosive and I like to watch him play 🙂

    3. Geezer
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Sane. Gut feeling

    4. Like an Egyptian Magician
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Tough one. Sane more explosive + Silva may be the first player to go the beach cuz of his personal problems

    5. Ravager
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      On this currently for FH:Suggestions? GTG?

      GW 35

      Pickford (Hennessey)
      Milner Bellerin Otamendi (Long Dummett)
      Mane Salah (c) Sterling Zaha Shaqiri
      Lacazette Jesus (vc) (Crouch)

      1. Ravager
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Crap. Post Fail. Sorry...

        Sane for explosive factor

  8. Abusive_Sgt_Daelrhos
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    VVD+Auba or Milner+Laca?

    1. Like an Egyptian Magician
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      ML

  9. NoSalah4me
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Gudmundsson or Milivojevic?

    1. NoSalah4me
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      For the rest of the season btw

    2. NestorC
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Mili

    3. Bob McMayday
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Not owning Mili has hurt me so I'd say Mili

  10. pjomara
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    I think we'll see a big reaction to Arsene's news by the players in this gw, makes me lean to Arsenal for my 5th mid position after 2 man city and 2 pool. Ramsey as a differential?

    1. Arctic monkeys
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Going Ozil I think

    2. Kiwivillan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Ramsey when he plays is always good to have

    3. Tmel
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      I think the same about Arsenal, can't seem to find room for Ozil ahead of KDB and Mane though

    4. Like an Egyptian Magician
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Yes

  11. HD7
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Why is KDB preferred more than Sane?

    1. NoSalah4me
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Because everyone got some FH money

      1. HD7
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Okay I also can afford him...but its not the money its the point potential we are looking... so is he the better one? 🙂

    2. Like an Egyptian Magician
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      KDB underperforms when Fernandinho is out cuz he has to be more defensive. So I prefer Sane tbh but I may very well be wrong

  12. Kiwivillan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    What's story with Auba? Yesterday thought people on here saying might not play based on Wenger comments

    1. Fantasyamateur
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Wenger wants to use the team playing in EL on Thursday to keep up their match fitness.. Aubameyang doesn't fit into those plans.

    2. walkman666
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      I think we have a lot of time to obssess about this game, and wenger’s comments could be interpreted to mean something about Aubameyang, yet have little to do with Lacazette. There are a few different scenarios that could emerge, and I think some folks are seeing that, instead of being categical about one playing and the other not.

    3. carpenio
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Wenger also said "start" not "play." I think Auba likely to come off bench even of he doesn't start.

  13. dsefton
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    On a WC:
    A) De gea + Naughton + Dummett
    B) Fabianski + Smalling + Yedlin

    Thanks!

  14. Dead Lift
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    I have reached to the conclusion that Auba is more secure than Laca according to the following :
    https://www.arsenal.com/news/lacazettes-goals-and-aubameyangs-role?utm_source=premier-league-website&utm_medium=link&utm_campaign=website

    1. Greenbackbøøg…
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Your reasoning being?

  15. Fantasyamateur
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Anyone care to comment my FH.-team? Any changes I should look at?

    Butland
    Mustafi - Dijk - Baines
    Zaha - Sterling - Salah - Mané - Sané
    Jesus (C) - Lacazette

    Bench: Adrian, Long, fodder, fodder.

    1. Dead Lift
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Good to go. Pretty much template though.

      1. Fantasyamateur
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Just within the top 10k, so I think template is good for me atm.. Have to keep distances in my betting leagues as well.

        1. Geezer
          • 15 Years
          8 years, 3 months ago

          You don’t think captain Salah is more safe if you are leading?

          1. Fantasyamateur
            • 11 Years
            8 years, 3 months ago

            Maybe, but I don't think Liverpool will score too many vs WBA, whereas City could destroy Swansea. Also, my rivals might captain Jesus to try to catch up on me so I just block their move by doing the same lol

    2. Like an Egyptian Magician
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Gtg

  16. Tmel
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    a) Klavan Baines
    b) Moreno PVA

    1. Bob McMayday
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      tough but probably A

    2. Yank Revolution
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      A

  17. Uncle Gamst
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    I'm a bit short on funds and my rival has dumped his Liverpool players and gone Arse/City so I've gone for the following FH team:

    Butland
    Lowton, Bellerin, VvD
    Sterling, Salah (C), Mane, Sané, Millivojevic
    Jesus, Lacazette,
    Bench: Nordfeldt, Barnes, Long, Femenía

    0.6 left in bank

    Any changes or GTG?

    Thanks

    1. NestorC
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Maybe Auba instead of Laca, but who knows

      1. Uncle Gamst
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Cheers, it's coin toss ATM it seems :-/

    2. Like an Egyptian Magician
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Gtg

      1. Uncle Gamst
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 3 months ago

        Cheers 🙂

    3. Naboo
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      VVD to Milner on FH

  18. yanky
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    please help!! Cheers!!

    a) Karius vs Butland
    b) Monreal vs Mustafi
    c) Silva vs Sane
    d) Auba vs Laca

    1. Clintymints
      • 17 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Either
      Mustafi
      Sane
      Either

  19. MASTER ROSHI
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Walker best defender for man city FH ??

    1. MarvelouSuccess
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Best defender is ota

  20. pablo discobar
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    GK Pickford
    DEF Bellerin, Klaven, Baines
    MID Sterling, Sane, KDB, Zaha, Salah
    FWD Lacazette, Jesus

    Subs (3.9) Tosun, Bauer, Hollebas

    Free Hit, Captain Salah

    Good to go?

    1. dsefton
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      4 Man City players?

    2. Clintymints
      • 17 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      FFS get it together 😉

    3. pablo discobar
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Sane should read Mane 😀

    4. Like an Egyptian Magician
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Gtg

  21. Tmel
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    a) Walker Ozil
    b) Bellerin KDB

  22. Call Me Old Fashioned
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Thoughts?

    Hennessy
    VVD, Baines, Bellerin
    Sane, Sterling, Zaha, Mane, Salah
    Auba, Jesus

    Speroni, Barnes, Long, Dummet.

  23. Aston-villain
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Lejeune or Long for 1 game?

    1. MarvelouSuccess
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Long is more nailed

    2. Like an Egyptian Magician
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Long

  24. That Fantasy Guy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Is aubumayang set to play or is lacazette the safe pick?

    1. Aston-villain
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Laca is the safe bet apparantly.

    2. Clintymints
      • 17 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      I reckon they will both start, and laca will get subbed but auba will finish

      Auba reverse oop, but he does well from the left and Laca main man.

      50/50 imo to who gets the baps. Maybe Auba might be less selfish to boost Laca's goals before Europe fixtures again?

  25. HD7
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Money aside ... is KDB better option than Sane or Ozil this GW?

    1. MTPockets
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Maybe but I have Sane & Ozil.

    2. Clintymints
      • 17 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Stats say so

      The eye test says Sane

  26. adidasOriginals
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Who's going to play in the MCFC midfield this weekend then?

    1. Ten Season Wonder
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Please check CitizensExpress twitter

  27. NoSalah4me
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Wildcard

    Dubravka
    Mustafa - Ota - Yedlin
    Salah - Sterling (c/vc) - Arna - Shaq - Gudmundsson
    Jesus(c/vc) - Perez

    Subs: De Gea, Tomkins, Naughton, Kane

    gtg?

  28. Ten Season Wonder
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    Final piece of advice please?

    Which duo to play alongside BAINES & KLAVAN?

    A). HENN & BELLERIN
    B). BUTLAND & PVA

    Thanks in advance 🙂

    1. Like an Egyptian Magician
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      A

  29. dsefton
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    On a WC so will have to do me for DGW37 as well:

    A) KDB + Milivojevic
    B) Sane + Zaha

    Thanks?

    1. F4L
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      B

    2. Ten Season Wonder
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      A for KDB nailed-on-ness

  30. F4L
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 3 months ago

    How important will it be to have Kane for the run in?

    1. Clintymints
      • 17 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Probably wise

    2. Like an Egyptian Magician
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 3 months ago

      Based on the data of this current season, ur better off not having him if ur subsequent upgrades perform