Metrics
20 April 2018 3973 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
Share:

In our latest dip into the Fantasy Premier League metrics, we look back at the results of the chips employed for Double Gameweek 34 before looking ahead to the much-anticipated use of the Free Hit for the blanks in Gameweek 35.

As we’ve seen, Gameweek 34 was a relatively high-scoring one, with the overall average score being 64 (not including transfer hits).

I calculated that the top 10k and 100k averages with hits factored in, and the results are a massive 84.3 points for the top 10k and 81.2 for the top 100k. Pretty impressive.

The effect of using Bench Boost chip helped many to beat even this high average.

Managers in the top 100k reached as high as 134 points this week, while one 10k manager scored 131 points.

Granted, we have seen higher scores in previous Double Gameweeks, but this week was not as bad as it was threatening to be, with many managers scoring 90+ points and a rash of green arrows.

To quantify this more, let’s have a look at the points the top 10k managers gained by using the different chips this week.

Chip UsedPointsPoints for all other managersPoints for managers who used no chips
Bench Boost94.977.874.7
Triple Captain83.384.574.7
Free Hit80.284.474.4
Wildcard83.284.374.4

 

We see that those who used Bench Boost were the only ones to beat their rivals, while the other chips helped managers gain over the “chipless” managers, though they still lost out on average compared to the teams around them.

Bench Boosters scored an impressive average of 94.9 points, which gave them a 20.1 points edge over normal teams and a 17.1 points gain over everyone who didn’t use that chip.

Meanwhile, those who turned to the Triple Captain scored an average of 83.3 points, which is lower than the remaining top 10k managers average of 84.5, meaning that they appeared to lose some ground.

This makes sense as the the main Triple Captain choices this week – Harry Kane, Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy – scored just a single goal over the two fixtures, while another, Alexis Sanchez, managed only two points.

Managers who tried something different and went for the use of Free Hit lost even more ground having scored an average of 80.2 points, compared to 84.4 points for the managers around them.

So, it has been a real success for most Bench Boosters this week. But was it because of their bench, or did they just select more wisely?

To examine this, I checked the substitutes of all Bench Boosters this week to get an idea of how much their reserves contributed.

Many managers left some big hitters on the bench because it doesn’t matter, so for a fair comparison, I rearranged every team so that the bench contained the players who didn’t feature, plus the cheapest assets who would normally not be in the starting XI.

The result was that, on average, the bench added 18.4 points for Bench Boosters in the top 10k and 17.8 points in the top 100k.

This is not a bad result, but also not spectacular, given that, under normal circumstances, we’d expect two points per fixture for each bench player will result in a Bench Boost of 16 points.

Still, those 18.4 points were the determining factor in the 20 points gained by the Bench Boosting managers this week.

In fact, many did better than that average bench.

For instance, look at this  impressive 41-point bench in the top 10k.

However, if you feel that your week didn’t go well, don’t worry: you are not alone.

You couldn’t be doing worse than Bench Boosters who got exactly zero points from their bench, like these top 50k teams here, here and here.

There is also this manager who saw his rank drop from 17k to 128k in one week by scoring just one point total 65(-64).

So, don’t panic yet; there are more opportunities for big scores on the horizon.

Speaking of which, let’s now have a look at the Gameweek 35 blanks and the opportunity open to managers who still own their Free Hit chip.

They are not at all a majority in the top 10k, with a percentage of just 33% as we can see in the updated chip use figure below.

members

But it seems certain that most of the managers with Free Hit intact will activate the chip for Gameweek 35 to help navigate the blanks.

Many of the managers who don’t have the chip used it for the other blanks in Gameweek 31; at that point, there was some extensive debate on whether that was the correct decision.

This is yet to be decided, but in any case, here are some statistics to help both managers plan for their Free Hit moves or transfers this week.

Teams that already used Free Hit currently have an average of 7.4 players with a fixture in Gameweek 35, so with 1.17 free transfers that could raise their number to 8.57 players without hits.

The distribution of current players ownership for non-Free Hit owners is shown below.
members

So, it seems that the majority have eight players, which could be raised to nine or 10 with transfer hits; that’s hardly disastrous in a Gameweek with just six fixtures.

But, of course, it’s quality not quantity that really matters.

The Free Hitters will have the advantage of picking players with absolute freedom this week to counter potential rotation and form fluctuation.

Therefore, let’s check on the current most owned players in the non-Free Hitter teams destined to start for them in Gameweek 35.

members

The most likely players to be very popular in non-Free Hit teams will include Nick Pope in goal, Andy Robertson, Nicolas Otamendi and Matthew Lowton in defence, while Mohamed Salah and Luka Milivojevic populate midfields.

The three main strikers are all without a fixture and that could be the area where managers will use their transfers.

Not shown in the image are the duo of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (36.6%) and Roberto Firmino (35.6%), who are likely to lead the lines of many non-Free Hit teams, but the remaining percentage of managers will look at other striking options too.

Finally, we check on the Premier League teams that are most represented in managers’ teams without the Free Hit chip to play.

members

We see that Liverpool is the team most represented in non-Free Hit teams, with an average of 1.8 players.

Burnley are second (1.4), and after that, we find an average of one player per team from Manchester City, Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Newcastle.

These figures might just help the current crop of Free Hitters when it comes to player selection as they bid to get an edge on rivals who have already activated the chip.

  1. willl
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Sterling v Salah is very close.

    Swansea concede more shots, West Brom concede more goals.

    Sterling probably will get 80+ mins, Salah less likely to.

    Tough one.

    1. Clintymints
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      On a fh, I think it's wise to stick with salah cap and let the other players get the baps in

      keeps you good with the other lads doing the biz.

      Not on fh, then it comes down to necessary personal gains

      1. willl
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        lol it comes down to who scores more 😉

        1. G-Whizz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          This

        2. Clintymints
          • 16 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Yeah, logically speaking, of course!

          But the fear factor is real

          Sold Salah last week and it was torture

          Can't do it again!

    2. Nomar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      West Brom have tightened up a bit since they sacked Pardew, though.

    3. syke63
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      WB with new manager on a high after utd win. Swansea could be on hiding to new champions looking to put on a show. Tough call for sure.

    4. G-Whizz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Sterling for me...

      1. Nomar
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Same here.

  2. Reggie Nainggolan
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    What's the chances of firmino starting? And auba n Robertson

    1. Dsmythy
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Where you been 😀

    2. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Firmino 0%
      Auba 55%
      Robertson 0%

    3. syke63
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      These guys read the news

    4. Gallas25
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Leaked line up on anfield express says Firmino and Robertson don't start. Mane and Salah do

  3. pressdpm
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Thoughts on my FH?

    Pickford
    Mustafi - Kiko - Van Dijk
    Sterling - De Bruyne - Salah - Mane
    Jesus - Lacazette - Deeney

    3.9 - Lowton - Loftus Cheek - 3.9

    1. Ten Season Wonder
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Deeney massive diff, fair play hope it works for you

      1. pressdpm
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Yeah, taking a punt. Season is already going bad enough lately, figured I'd take a gamble.

    2. Geezer
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Captain?

      1. pressdpm
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Jesus

        1. Geezer
          • 15 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Cheers. Me too atm

  4. Ten Season Wonder
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    G2G please folks... Bench in correct order?

    Butland
    Baines - Klavan - Bellerin
    Salah(c) - Mane - KDB - Sterling - Zaha
    Jesus(vc) - Auba

    Subs: GK-fodder; Crouch, Long, Bauer

    1. Root
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      No. Crouch last.

      1. Tiki-Taka
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        agreed

        1. Tiki-Taka
          • 15 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          also Bauer 1st, Long 2n

          1. Ten Season Wonder
            • 12 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            First XI okay?

      2. Ten Season Wonder
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Bauer, Long, Crouch?

    2. pressdpm
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Like it

  5. Arctic monkeys
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Anyone here going with Milner ? Interesting oop option and should start

    1. Ten Season Wonder
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Want to but he's 6mils

      1. Arctic monkeys
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Going Ings as 3rd attacker and spreading the cash

    2. Bob McMayday
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I've got him in as it stands. not sure if I'll change my mind

    3. MTPockets
        7 years, 10 months ago

        yep

      • syke63
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        He's a good option but think Salah will be on pens

    4. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      No FH. Best Alonso replacement for 35 and through to end of season from !

      A Van Dijk
      B Kompany
      C Mawson
      D Lascelles

      1. Ten Season Wonder
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        B

      2. Legomané
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Dummet or Yedlin and free up the funds

    5. Tiki-Taka
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Any idea who to pick between D.Silva and Sane? And reasons why? Tough decision

      1. Bob McMayday
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I've went with Sane, Jesus, Sterling. purely because they will hopefully be playing as the front 3. Not to say Silva or KDB don't get forward but seems logical to me to go for the most attacking players

      2. Uncle Gamst
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Sane as explosive and I like to watch him play 🙂

      3. Geezer
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Sane. Gut feeling

      4. Like an Egyptian Magician
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Tough one. Sane more explosive + Silva may be the first player to go the beach cuz of his personal problems

      5. Ravager
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        On this currently for FH:Suggestions? GTG?

        GW 35

        Pickford (Hennessey)
        Milner Bellerin Otamendi (Long Dummett)
        Mane Salah (c) Sterling Zaha Shaqiri
        Lacazette Jesus (vc) (Crouch)

        1. Ravager
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Crap. Post Fail. Sorry...

          Sane for explosive factor

    6. Abusive_Sgt_Daelrhos
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      VVD+Auba or Milner+Laca?

      1. Like an Egyptian Magician
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        ML

    7. NoSalah4me
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Gudmundsson or Milivojevic?

      1. NoSalah4me
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        For the rest of the season btw

      2. NestorC
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Mili

      3. Bob McMayday
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Not owning Mili has hurt me so I'd say Mili

    8. pjomara
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I think we'll see a big reaction to Arsene's news by the players in this gw, makes me lean to Arsenal for my 5th mid position after 2 man city and 2 pool. Ramsey as a differential?

      1. Arctic monkeys
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Going Ozil I think

      2. Kiwivillan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Ramsey when he plays is always good to have

      3. Tmel
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I think the same about Arsenal, can't seem to find room for Ozil ahead of KDB and Mane though

      4. Like an Egyptian Magician
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Yes

    9. HD7
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Why is KDB preferred more than Sane?

      1. NoSalah4me
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Because everyone got some FH money

        1. HD7
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Okay I also can afford him...but its not the money its the point potential we are looking... so is he the better one? 🙂

      2. Like an Egyptian Magician
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        KDB underperforms when Fernandinho is out cuz he has to be more defensive. So I prefer Sane tbh but I may very well be wrong

    10. Kiwivillan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      What's story with Auba? Yesterday thought people on here saying might not play based on Wenger comments

      1. Fantasyamateur
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Wenger wants to use the team playing in EL on Thursday to keep up their match fitness.. Aubameyang doesn't fit into those plans.

      2. walkman666
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I think we have a lot of time to obssess about this game, and wenger’s comments could be interpreted to mean something about Aubameyang, yet have little to do with Lacazette. There are a few different scenarios that could emerge, and I think some folks are seeing that, instead of being categical about one playing and the other not.

      3. carpenio
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Wenger also said "start" not "play." I think Auba likely to come off bench even of he doesn't start.

    11. dsefton
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      On a WC:
      A) De gea + Naughton + Dummett
      B) Fabianski + Smalling + Yedlin

      Thanks!

    12. Dead Lift
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I have reached to the conclusion that Auba is more secure than Laca according to the following :
      https://www.arsenal.com/news/lacazettes-goals-and-aubameyangs-role?utm_source=premier-league-website&utm_medium=link&utm_campaign=website

      1. Greenbackbøøg…
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Your reasoning being?

    13. Fantasyamateur
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Anyone care to comment my FH.-team? Any changes I should look at?

      Butland
      Mustafi - Dijk - Baines
      Zaha - Sterling - Salah - Mané - Sané
      Jesus (C) - Lacazette

      Bench: Adrian, Long, fodder, fodder.

      1. Dead Lift
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Good to go. Pretty much template though.

        1. Fantasyamateur
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Just within the top 10k, so I think template is good for me atm.. Have to keep distances in my betting leagues as well.

          1. Geezer
            • 15 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            You don’t think captain Salah is more safe if you are leading?

            1. Fantasyamateur
              • 10 Years
              7 years, 10 months ago

              Maybe, but I don't think Liverpool will score too many vs WBA, whereas City could destroy Swansea. Also, my rivals might captain Jesus to try to catch up on me so I just block their move by doing the same lol

      2. Like an Egyptian Magician
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Gtg

    14. Tmel
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      a) Klavan Baines
      b) Moreno PVA

      1. Bob McMayday
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        tough but probably A

      2. Yank Revolution
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        A

    15. Uncle Gamst
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I'm a bit short on funds and my rival has dumped his Liverpool players and gone Arse/City so I've gone for the following FH team:

      Butland
      Lowton, Bellerin, VvD
      Sterling, Salah (C), Mane, Sané, Millivojevic
      Jesus, Lacazette,
      Bench: Nordfeldt, Barnes, Long, Femenía

      0.6 left in bank

      Any changes or GTG?

      Thanks

      1. NestorC
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Maybe Auba instead of Laca, but who knows

        1. Uncle Gamst
          • 14 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Cheers, it's coin toss ATM it seems :-/

      2. Like an Egyptian Magician
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Gtg

        1. Uncle Gamst
          • 14 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Cheers 🙂

      3. Naboo
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        VVD to Milner on FH

    16. yanky
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      please help!! Cheers!!

      a) Karius vs Butland
      b) Monreal vs Mustafi
      c) Silva vs Sane
      d) Auba vs Laca

      1. Clintymints
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Either
        Mustafi
        Sane
        Either

    17. MASTER ROSHI
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Walker best defender for man city FH ??

      1. MarvelouSuccess
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Best defender is ota

    18. pablo discobar
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      GK Pickford
      DEF Bellerin, Klaven, Baines
      MID Sterling, Sane, KDB, Zaha, Salah
      FWD Lacazette, Jesus

      Subs (3.9) Tosun, Bauer, Hollebas

      Free Hit, Captain Salah

      Good to go?

      1. dsefton
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        4 Man City players?

      2. Clintymints
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        FFS get it together 😉

      3. pablo discobar
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Sane should read Mane 😀

      4. Like an Egyptian Magician
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Gtg

    19. Tmel
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      a) Walker Ozil
      b) Bellerin KDB

    20. Call Me Old Fashioned
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Thoughts?

      Hennessy
      VVD, Baines, Bellerin
      Sane, Sterling, Zaha, Mane, Salah
      Auba, Jesus

      Speroni, Barnes, Long, Dummet.

    21. Aston-villain
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Lejeune or Long for 1 game?

      1. MarvelouSuccess
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Long is more nailed

      2. Like an Egyptian Magician
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Long

    22. That Fantasy Guy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Is aubumayang set to play or is lacazette the safe pick?

      1. Aston-villain
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Laca is the safe bet apparantly.

      2. Clintymints
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I reckon they will both start, and laca will get subbed but auba will finish

        Auba reverse oop, but he does well from the left and Laca main man.

        50/50 imo to who gets the baps. Maybe Auba might be less selfish to boost Laca's goals before Europe fixtures again?

    23. HD7
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Money aside ... is KDB better option than Sane or Ozil this GW?

      1. MTPockets
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Maybe but I have Sane & Ozil.

        • Clintymints
          • 16 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Stats say so

          The eye test says Sane

      2. adidasOriginals
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Who's going to play in the MCFC midfield this weekend then?

        1. Ten Season Wonder
          • 12 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Please check CitizensExpress twitter

      3. NoSalah4me
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Wildcard

        Dubravka
        Mustafa - Ota - Yedlin
        Salah - Sterling (c/vc) - Arna - Shaq - Gudmundsson
        Jesus(c/vc) - Perez

        Subs: De Gea, Tomkins, Naughton, Kane

        gtg?

      4. Ten Season Wonder
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Final piece of advice please?

        Which duo to play alongside BAINES & KLAVAN?

        A). HENN & BELLERIN
        B). BUTLAND & PVA

        Thanks in advance 🙂

        1. Like an Egyptian Magician
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          A

      5. dsefton
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        On a WC so will have to do me for DGW37 as well:

        A) KDB + Milivojevic
        B) Sane + Zaha

        Thanks?

        1. F4L
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          B

        2. Ten Season Wonder
          • 12 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          A for KDB nailed-on-ness

      6. F4L
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        How important will it be to have Kane for the run in?

        1. Clintymints
          • 16 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Probably wise

        2. Like an Egyptian Magician
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Based on the data of this current season, ur better off not having him if ur subsequent upgrades perform