Metrics
20 April 2018 3973 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
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In our latest dip into the Fantasy Premier League metrics, we look back at the results of the chips employed for Double Gameweek 34 before looking ahead to the much-anticipated use of the Free Hit for the blanks in Gameweek 35.

As we’ve seen, Gameweek 34 was a relatively high-scoring one, with the overall average score being 64 (not including transfer hits).

I calculated that the top 10k and 100k averages with hits factored in, and the results are a massive 84.3 points for the top 10k and 81.2 for the top 100k. Pretty impressive.

The effect of using Bench Boost chip helped many to beat even this high average.

Managers in the top 100k reached as high as 134 points this week, while one 10k manager scored 131 points.

Granted, we have seen higher scores in previous Double Gameweeks, but this week was not as bad as it was threatening to be, with many managers scoring 90+ points and a rash of green arrows.

To quantify this more, let’s have a look at the points the top 10k managers gained by using the different chips this week.

Chip UsedPointsPoints for all other managersPoints for managers who used no chips
Bench Boost94.977.874.7
Triple Captain83.384.574.7
Free Hit80.284.474.4
Wildcard83.284.374.4

 

We see that those who used Bench Boost were the only ones to beat their rivals, while the other chips helped managers gain over the “chipless” managers, though they still lost out on average compared to the teams around them.

Bench Boosters scored an impressive average of 94.9 points, which gave them a 20.1 points edge over normal teams and a 17.1 points gain over everyone who didn’t use that chip.

Meanwhile, those who turned to the Triple Captain scored an average of 83.3 points, which is lower than the remaining top 10k managers average of 84.5, meaning that they appeared to lose some ground.

This makes sense as the the main Triple Captain choices this week – Harry Kane, Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy – scored just a single goal over the two fixtures, while another, Alexis Sanchez, managed only two points.

Managers who tried something different and went for the use of Free Hit lost even more ground having scored an average of 80.2 points, compared to 84.4 points for the managers around them.

So, it has been a real success for most Bench Boosters this week. But was it because of their bench, or did they just select more wisely?

To examine this, I checked the substitutes of all Bench Boosters this week to get an idea of how much their reserves contributed.

Many managers left some big hitters on the bench because it doesn’t matter, so for a fair comparison, I rearranged every team so that the bench contained the players who didn’t feature, plus the cheapest assets who would normally not be in the starting XI.

The result was that, on average, the bench added 18.4 points for Bench Boosters in the top 10k and 17.8 points in the top 100k.

This is not a bad result, but also not spectacular, given that, under normal circumstances, we’d expect two points per fixture for each bench player will result in a Bench Boost of 16 points.

Still, those 18.4 points were the determining factor in the 20 points gained by the Bench Boosting managers this week.

In fact, many did better than that average bench.

For instance, look at this  impressive 41-point bench in the top 10k.

However, if you feel that your week didn’t go well, don’t worry: you are not alone.

You couldn’t be doing worse than Bench Boosters who got exactly zero points from their bench, like these top 50k teams here, here and here.

There is also this manager who saw his rank drop from 17k to 128k in one week by scoring just one point total 65(-64).

So, don’t panic yet; there are more opportunities for big scores on the horizon.

Speaking of which, let’s now have a look at the Gameweek 35 blanks and the opportunity open to managers who still own their Free Hit chip.

They are not at all a majority in the top 10k, with a percentage of just 33% as we can see in the updated chip use figure below.

members

But it seems certain that most of the managers with Free Hit intact will activate the chip for Gameweek 35 to help navigate the blanks.

Many of the managers who don’t have the chip used it for the other blanks in Gameweek 31; at that point, there was some extensive debate on whether that was the correct decision.

This is yet to be decided, but in any case, here are some statistics to help both managers plan for their Free Hit moves or transfers this week.

Teams that already used Free Hit currently have an average of 7.4 players with a fixture in Gameweek 35, so with 1.17 free transfers that could raise their number to 8.57 players without hits.

The distribution of current players ownership for non-Free Hit owners is shown below.
members

So, it seems that the majority have eight players, which could be raised to nine or 10 with transfer hits; that’s hardly disastrous in a Gameweek with just six fixtures.

But, of course, it’s quality not quantity that really matters.

The Free Hitters will have the advantage of picking players with absolute freedom this week to counter potential rotation and form fluctuation.

Therefore, let’s check on the current most owned players in the non-Free Hitter teams destined to start for them in Gameweek 35.

members

The most likely players to be very popular in non-Free Hit teams will include Nick Pope in goal, Andy Robertson, Nicolas Otamendi and Matthew Lowton in defence, while Mohamed Salah and Luka Milivojevic populate midfields.

The three main strikers are all without a fixture and that could be the area where managers will use their transfers.

Not shown in the image are the duo of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (36.6%) and Roberto Firmino (35.6%), who are likely to lead the lines of many non-Free Hit teams, but the remaining percentage of managers will look at other striking options too.

Finally, we check on the Premier League teams that are most represented in managers’ teams without the Free Hit chip to play.

members

We see that Liverpool is the team most represented in non-Free Hit teams, with an average of 1.8 players.

Burnley are second (1.4), and after that, we find an average of one player per team from Manchester City, Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Newcastle.

These figures might just help the current crop of Free Hitters when it comes to player selection as they bid to get an edge on rivals who have already activated the chip.

  1. Ian Davis
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Any tips for this wildcard team?:

    Pope / Hart

    Fernandez / Chilwell / Klavan / Long / Dummett

    Salah / KDB / Sterling / Zaha / Mane

    Kane / Jesus / Perez

    1. FantasyNik123
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I would stock up on more players that have doubles in 37.

      So I would drop Mane, Klavan, and a few other players.

  2. Connor's Calling
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    KDB or Sane this week only?

    1. FantasyNik123
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Flip a coin.

    2. michudagawd
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      KDB

  3. chaser123
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Butland
    Bellerin | Klavan | Baines
    De Bruyne | Sterling | Salah (C) | Mane | Zaha
    Laca | Jesus (VC)

    Lowton and Long on the bench.

    How does this look?

    1. tm370
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Looks very good

    2. FantasyNik123
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Looks aight.

  4. ScratchingTheMud
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Great article

  5. Frank Koscielny
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Has the Liverpool lineup been leaked today? Anyone have a link?

    1. FantasyNik123
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Yes. No. Just go to Anfield Express on twitter

      1. Frank Koscielny
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Cheers!

  6. tm370
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Posted on old thread - comments guys?

    Cech
    Jags, Milner, Baines
    Sane, Mane, Sterling, Salah (C)
    Lacazette, Jesus, Tosun

    Hennesey, Milivojevic, Mariappa, Long

    1. FantasyNik123
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Not a fan of the everton triple up. I would swap out Jags to someone else.

      1. tm370
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Cheers buddy

  7. Positive vibes
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Hi, please helo, who is better choice?
    A. KDB or Kompany or Ota -> KDB?
    B. Milner or VVD or Klavan -> Milner?
    C. Zaha or Mili or Tosun -> Zaha?

    Thanks.

    1. FantasyNik123
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      What do these mean? lol

      1. Positive vibes
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Maybe I must asked in better form 🙂

    2. ChristoBisto
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Put down the blonde bierre

  8. MarkoSD
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    rmfh
    butland
    kompany baines monreal
    salah mane sterling zaha shaq
    jesus laca

    maiapaa ings long goldson

    1. FantasyNik123
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      9

    2. tricky80
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Good use of funds.

      All I'd ask: Do you want 3 premium defenders and two budget midfielders? Which has the higher ceiling?

      1. MarkoSD
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Well yes but which mids are better?

  9. NLB
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Final two spots, then FH complete:

    A. KDB + Tomkins or
    B. Sane + Bellerin?

    Cheers all

    1. FantasyNik123
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B

    2. Mesh
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B

  10. camarozz
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    So if that article is right which i guess is true, then zaha over Mili would be a better move? (just one example)

  11. tricky80
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    FH team...

    Pickford
    Otamendi Baines Klavan
    Salah Mané Sterling Özil Zaha
    Jesus Lacazette
    (Mäenpää Crouch Long Rosenior)
    0ITB

    1. FantasyNik123
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Good for you.

  12. Ravager
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    What's happening with Auba guys? Been out

    1. NLB
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Wenger presser made it sound like lineup will be similar to Europa squad (where Auba can't play).

      Laca a popular FH pick around here

    2. The Tinkerman
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Wenger said it’s difficult to decide whether to play him this week because he wants to prepare the team for the Europa League match in this week... implying he will play the team this week that he wants to play vs Atletico. Auba is of course intelligible for that.

      1. Ravager
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Smh. Thanks for answering though guys

  13. Mcbazburger
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Who to captain? I'm 17 points behind ML leader who still has all chips. I have WC and BB.

    A. Salah
    B. Mane
    C. Zaha
    D. Aubameyang

    1. ZeBestee
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A

      1. Mcbazburger
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I was thinking Mane as a differential, hoping Salah doesn't play 90 and blanks

    2. NLB
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Salah of those.

      Jesus and maybe Sterling are only other ones I'd consider

      1. Mcbazburger
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I decided not to transfer those in as I have double Swansea defence lol

  14. The Tinkerman
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Chambers in the predicted Arsenal lineup on here... if their defence hadn’t been so poor I’d be tempted as a gamble on FH

    1. tm370
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Oo is there a source for the line up? Any Laca news?

      1. The Tinkerman
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Just on the team news section of FFS.

  15. Manani
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Otamendi or Kompany?

    1. Danstoke82
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I’ve gone Kompany. Nailed.

  16. Danstoke82
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Current team (no FH available)

    Adrian*
    VVD Lowton Kompany Bavies*
    Salah Milivojevic Zaha Sterling
    Barnes Firmino

    Subs; DDG Kane Lingard Daniels

    At -8.

    Is a -12 too much as Thinking of swapping Adrian to Dubravka ready for BB DGW37. Plus will have a playing keeper for this GW

  17. Yordan Letchkov
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    GTG with this free hit team?

    Karius
    Walker, Baines, Monreal
    Salah (C), Mane, Sterling, Zaha
    Laca, Jesus, Tosun

    Nordfeldt, Long, Sobhi, Dummet

    Weak bench too risky?

  18. gomez123
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    A) willian to Zaha
    B) Stanislas to Milivojevic

  19. ZeBestee
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Nice article once again Ragabolly.

  20. TLF
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    If you already have an Everton def.. ...Butland or Pickford ?

    1. Mackans
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Butland

    2. ThisTimeNxtYrRodney
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Butland.

  21. Mackans
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Tomkins or Dummet?

  22. Baked baines
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    What’s the leaked Liverpool team??

  23. The Mighty Hippo
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    This feels about right, any suggestions for improvement?

    Pickford
    Bellerin I Milner I PVA
    Salah I KDB I Zaha I Sterling I Arnautovic
    Jesus (c) I Lacazette

    Dubravka I Barnes I Long I Masuaku

  24. Team Cruel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Why no love for Monreal if Wenger is going 'full strength'?

    1. Desperately Seeking Dusan
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I think a few teams I've seen have him. I would if I could afford.

  25. Desperately Seeking Dusan
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    This has been trickier than I thought... RMFHT pls:

    Butland
    PVA-Baines-Klavan
    Salah (C)-KDB-Mane-Sterling-Zaha
    Jesus (VC)-Lacazette

    Bench: Adrian (especially since Moyes said he has a decision to make)
    Crouch-Long-Mbemba

  26. Hobolicious
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    A) Özil, Klavan and Ward
    B) Arnautovic, VvD and Baines

    1. conew
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      b

  27. conew
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    a bellerin
    b monreal
    c mustafi
    ???????

    1. FF Dirtbag
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Bellerin

    2. Kevin Twine
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Bellerin

  28. FF Dirtbag
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    What's your thoughts on:
    A) moreno and kdb
    Or
    B) Milner and Sane

    1. lumaunited
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B

  29. @fpl_phenom
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Why in the name of FPL god are people on FH not picking Salah AND Mane??

    1. Cok3y5murf
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I see at least 5 teams on this page with both.

    2. Netley Lucas
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Dunno, they seem to be in every rmt mate 😆

      1. @fpl_phenom
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Seeing a trailer load on twitter with like just Salah.... makes no sense to me... they know the line-up too like.

    3. Salarrivederci
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I am on WC and chasing a big lead. Going 3 Pool defenders (Milner, VvD & Klavan)

      Need all 3 to play tomorrow and 2 of thm to play next week.

  30. michudagawd
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Any changes needed to this free hit team?

    Hennessey (Nordfeldt)
    Van Dijk Lascelles Baines (Long, Haidara)
    Salah KDB Sterling Mané Zaha
    Jesus Lacazette (Barnes)