Metrics
20 April 2018 3973 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
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In our latest dip into the Fantasy Premier League metrics, we look back at the results of the chips employed for Double Gameweek 34 before looking ahead to the much-anticipated use of the Free Hit for the blanks in Gameweek 35.

As we’ve seen, Gameweek 34 was a relatively high-scoring one, with the overall average score being 64 (not including transfer hits).

I calculated that the top 10k and 100k averages with hits factored in, and the results are a massive 84.3 points for the top 10k and 81.2 for the top 100k. Pretty impressive.

The effect of using Bench Boost chip helped many to beat even this high average.

Managers in the top 100k reached as high as 134 points this week, while one 10k manager scored 131 points.

Granted, we have seen higher scores in previous Double Gameweeks, but this week was not as bad as it was threatening to be, with many managers scoring 90+ points and a rash of green arrows.

To quantify this more, let’s have a look at the points the top 10k managers gained by using the different chips this week.

Chip UsedPointsPoints for all other managersPoints for managers who used no chips
Bench Boost94.977.874.7
Triple Captain83.384.574.7
Free Hit80.284.474.4
Wildcard83.284.374.4

 

We see that those who used Bench Boost were the only ones to beat their rivals, while the other chips helped managers gain over the “chipless” managers, though they still lost out on average compared to the teams around them.

Bench Boosters scored an impressive average of 94.9 points, which gave them a 20.1 points edge over normal teams and a 17.1 points gain over everyone who didn’t use that chip.

Meanwhile, those who turned to the Triple Captain scored an average of 83.3 points, which is lower than the remaining top 10k managers average of 84.5, meaning that they appeared to lose some ground.

This makes sense as the the main Triple Captain choices this week – Harry Kane, Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy – scored just a single goal over the two fixtures, while another, Alexis Sanchez, managed only two points.

Managers who tried something different and went for the use of Free Hit lost even more ground having scored an average of 80.2 points, compared to 84.4 points for the managers around them.

So, it has been a real success for most Bench Boosters this week. But was it because of their bench, or did they just select more wisely?

To examine this, I checked the substitutes of all Bench Boosters this week to get an idea of how much their reserves contributed.

Many managers left some big hitters on the bench because it doesn’t matter, so for a fair comparison, I rearranged every team so that the bench contained the players who didn’t feature, plus the cheapest assets who would normally not be in the starting XI.

The result was that, on average, the bench added 18.4 points for Bench Boosters in the top 10k and 17.8 points in the top 100k.

This is not a bad result, but also not spectacular, given that, under normal circumstances, we’d expect two points per fixture for each bench player will result in a Bench Boost of 16 points.

Still, those 18.4 points were the determining factor in the 20 points gained by the Bench Boosting managers this week.

In fact, many did better than that average bench.

For instance, look at this  impressive 41-point bench in the top 10k.

However, if you feel that your week didn’t go well, don’t worry: you are not alone.

You couldn’t be doing worse than Bench Boosters who got exactly zero points from their bench, like these top 50k teams here, here and here.

There is also this manager who saw his rank drop from 17k to 128k in one week by scoring just one point total 65(-64).

So, don’t panic yet; there are more opportunities for big scores on the horizon.

Speaking of which, let’s now have a look at the Gameweek 35 blanks and the opportunity open to managers who still own their Free Hit chip.

They are not at all a majority in the top 10k, with a percentage of just 33% as we can see in the updated chip use figure below.

members

But it seems certain that most of the managers with Free Hit intact will activate the chip for Gameweek 35 to help navigate the blanks.

Many of the managers who don’t have the chip used it for the other blanks in Gameweek 31; at that point, there was some extensive debate on whether that was the correct decision.

This is yet to be decided, but in any case, here are some statistics to help both managers plan for their Free Hit moves or transfers this week.

Teams that already used Free Hit currently have an average of 7.4 players with a fixture in Gameweek 35, so with 1.17 free transfers that could raise their number to 8.57 players without hits.

The distribution of current players ownership for non-Free Hit owners is shown below.
members

So, it seems that the majority have eight players, which could be raised to nine or 10 with transfer hits; that’s hardly disastrous in a Gameweek with just six fixtures.

But, of course, it’s quality not quantity that really matters.

The Free Hitters will have the advantage of picking players with absolute freedom this week to counter potential rotation and form fluctuation.

Therefore, let’s check on the current most owned players in the non-Free Hitter teams destined to start for them in Gameweek 35.

members

The most likely players to be very popular in non-Free Hit teams will include Nick Pope in goal, Andy Robertson, Nicolas Otamendi and Matthew Lowton in defence, while Mohamed Salah and Luka Milivojevic populate midfields.

The three main strikers are all without a fixture and that could be the area where managers will use their transfers.

Not shown in the image are the duo of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (36.6%) and Roberto Firmino (35.6%), who are likely to lead the lines of many non-Free Hit teams, but the remaining percentage of managers will look at other striking options too.

Finally, we check on the Premier League teams that are most represented in managers’ teams without the Free Hit chip to play.

members

We see that Liverpool is the team most represented in non-Free Hit teams, with an average of 1.8 players.

Burnley are second (1.4), and after that, we find an average of one player per team from Manchester City, Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Newcastle.

These figures might just help the current crop of Free Hitters when it comes to player selection as they bid to get an edge on rivals who have already activated the chip.

  1. Scotty B
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Which one would you rather have for the rest of the season?

    A Otamendi
    B Kompany
    C KDB
    D Walker

    1. Fantastisk
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      A

    2. HNI
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      kdb is most nailed. Ota missed last with laporte getting experience..walker can be rested for danilo and kompany is out after this season so stones can come in

      1. Scotty B
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        KDB is the one I want this week but it means losing Eriksen! What you think?

  2. Hoofedgod
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    So whats the Liverpool lineup?

    Very surprised that there isn't a hot topic for this!

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Karius, Gomez, Van Dijk, Klavan, Moreno, Henderson, Milner, Wijnaldum, Salah, Mane, Ings is the predicted team.

      1. Hoofedgod
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        Cheers TM!

    2. Perthite
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      One of the sources (take what you will from the accuracy)

      https://twitter.com/AnfieldExpress/status/987364885381165056?s=20

    3. Hotdogs for Tea
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      good point - a leaked lineup hot topic where all the leaks are gathered would be great

      1. Perthite
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        No-one looks anyway. Refer to the constant FH rule questions - many repeated on the same page.

        1. Hotdogs for Tea
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 5 days ago

          Better than nothing though

  3. Marc
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Is it Laca over Aub?

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Scout Picks think so.

    2. Scotty B
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Both start imo

  4. The Red Devil
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    FH team

    Butland
    Milner kompany bellerin
    Salah Sterling zaha Mili mane
    Jesus lacazette

    0.0 itb

    Bench- Grant Wood lejune Long

    So, help me out with the following

    A- kompany + mane
    B- PVA + kdb

    Also, which one out of
    1 Milner
    2 Vvd
    3 Baines

  5. Pep's Money Laundry
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Who would you pick

    A. Mane & Moreno
    B. Shaqiri & Milner

    1. Zladan
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Shame you have to sacrifice Mané to get Milner in.

      A. Mane looking very good lately.

  6. Messsiaah
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Everyone has almost the same team.
    So how many points are we expecting?
    I'll say 80+ if everything goes accordingly.

    1. Wild Card this!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Around 50 I would say...

  7. Scratch
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Salah or Jesus captain... toughie

    1. Messsiaah
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Jesus if you're chasing

  8. Kuqi Monster
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    "so for a fair comparison, I rearranged every team so that the bench contained the players who didn’t feature" - is it me or does that sound a lot of work?!

    1. Perthite
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Probably some algorithm doing the heavy lifting maybe using a ranking the players in order

  9. AnfieldLad
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Henny
    Baines Bellerin Moreno
    Salah(C) Sane Sterling Zaha Mane
    Kane Aub

    tips plz aub out??

    1. Fuddled FC
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      When you put Kane did you actually mean Jesus?

      Otherwise...

      1. AnfieldLad
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        yes plz advise

  10. Sz21
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    GTG?

    Ederson.
    VVD, Baines, PVA.
    Salah (c), Sterling (vc), Mane, Ozil, Zaha.
    Laca, Jesus.
    Elliot, Long.
    0.0m in the bank.

  11. Weeb Kakashi
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Zaha or Shaqiri?

    1. Kuqi Monster
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Zaha for me

    2. Sz21
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Zaha!

    3. HNI
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Both. If had to pick then zaha if leading shaq if chasing

  12. Feloh
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Who will score more points?
    a. mane
    b.ozil

    is sane nailed on to start? I have sterling and Jesus already. Why no love for sane surely?

  13. lumaunited
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Sane start?

  14. The Final Boss
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Guys FH Teams

    a)
    butland
    bellerin baines moreno
    salah sterling sane zaha mane
    lacz jesus

    b)
    butland
    otta baines moreno
    salah sterling shaq zaha mane
    lacz jesus

    please do suggest.TIA

  15. Urchin
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Posting again, a no replies on previous page:

    How is this FH team:

    Pickford (3.9)
    Milner Moreno Coleman (Dummett Long)
    Salah Dilva Sterling Zaha Ozil
    Jesus Tosun (Deeney)

    1. zøphar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      dont like double liverpool defense or double everton defense rest is good

    2. Ratatouille
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      You need Aubameyang!

    3. Perthite
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Not sold on D.Silva - never lives up to the promise

    4. Urchin
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Cheers guys, back to the drawing board. Wasnt happy with this team anyways 🙂

  16. Winners900
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Thoughts?

    Butland
    Bellerin-Baines-Moreno
    Salah-Sterling-Sane-Øzil-Zaha
    Jesus-Lacazette

    Speroni, Diouf, Kiko & Long

    1. Scotty B
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      FH? Brilliant

      1. Winners900
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        Yeah, thanks

    2. Zladan
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Only 2 LFC on a FH?
      We’ve seen the line up.

      1. Winners900
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        yeah, I know. Do you prefer Mane instead of Sane/Ozil?

        1. Zladan
          • 8 Years
          8 years, 5 days ago

          I’ve gone Mané. But I also have KDB Sterling and Jesus. Özil is your differential so could be a good pick.

        2. The Final Boss
          • 8 Years
          8 years, 5 days ago

          Mane instead of ozil..sane seems to be more threatening than ozil..

  17. zøphar
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Opinions please-
    1. KDB + Moreno
    2. Silva + Milner

    1. Scotty B
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      1

  18. MrMajeika
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    chances of sane playing today?

    1. Scotty B
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Zero....but he will tomorrow

    2. La Roja
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Not a chance

  19. Scotty B
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    What's the score with Kompany for the remaining games?

    Play one, miss one or play all do we think?

  20. stumanchuu
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Salah kdb klavan or

    Mane kompany ozil

    Chasing 20 pts on Fh

    Thx

  21. JRO093
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    For FH35 would you rather have a defense of:

    A) Hennesey, Baines, VvD, Long

    B) Butland, Baines, Klavan, PvA

    1. Mini Mane Mo
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      A

    2. FPL Fanatic
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      B

  22. Zladan
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Is Mustafi the only nailed Arsenal defender ?

    1. Root
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      He isn't nailed.

      1. Zladan
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        He’s started the last 14 league games.

  23. La Roja
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Anyone else used their free hit chip and annoyed with all these FH RMT’s? :mrgreen:

    1. Scotty B
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Yep haha

    2. jia you
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Driven me to the verge of madness and have gradually got to -16!

    3. Sailboats
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      god damn graveless

  24. Scotty B
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    One with most votes is getting done now as can't decide and need to go out. This isn't for FH by the way.

    A Eriksen > KDB
    B Alonso > Walker
    C Alonso > Otamendi
    D Ake > Kompany

    1. Mr Q
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      C

    2. La vida FPL
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      B

    3. Scotty B
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      Need a deciding vote haha

  25. Mr Q
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Now its not too soon for tosun anymore! Welcome to the team 🙂 (FH)

    1. AThousandSuns
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      hahaha. He is in my bandwagon as well

      1. Mr Q
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 5 days ago

        Good luck to us

  26. jia you
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Just sold Robertson to double up on NEW defence making it -16 to field XI!
    FPL insanity perhaps or a master stoke, time will tell 😉

  27. La vida FPL
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    20 pts behind in mini league... should I be taking more risks or not play safe and hope for mistakes from him.

    Surely Salah over Jesus captain this week

    1. Kuqi Monster
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      20pts is nothing

  28. Feloh
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    chances of sane starting tomorrow or in other words what is the ideal city team that pep is likely to put out there against swansea?

  29. Sid07
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Oh FH
    Mane or kdb

    1. Mini Mane Mo
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      KDB

  30. CRO KLOPP
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 5 days ago

    Butland
    Bellerin Baines Milner
    Salah Mane Sterling Sane Zaha
    Lacazette Jesus
    Haugard Perez Long Marriapa

    0.0 itb
    GTG? Mane to Ozil?

    1. Feloh
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 5 days ago

      currently on mane though I'm scared he'll be pulled off early.