Metrics
20 April 2018 3973 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
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In our latest dip into the Fantasy Premier League metrics, we look back at the results of the chips employed for Double Gameweek 34 before looking ahead to the much-anticipated use of the Free Hit for the blanks in Gameweek 35.

As we’ve seen, Gameweek 34 was a relatively high-scoring one, with the overall average score being 64 (not including transfer hits).

I calculated that the top 10k and 100k averages with hits factored in, and the results are a massive 84.3 points for the top 10k and 81.2 for the top 100k. Pretty impressive.

The effect of using Bench Boost chip helped many to beat even this high average.

Managers in the top 100k reached as high as 134 points this week, while one 10k manager scored 131 points.

Granted, we have seen higher scores in previous Double Gameweeks, but this week was not as bad as it was threatening to be, with many managers scoring 90+ points and a rash of green arrows.

To quantify this more, let’s have a look at the points the top 10k managers gained by using the different chips this week.

Chip UsedPointsPoints for all other managersPoints for managers who used no chips
Bench Boost94.977.874.7
Triple Captain83.384.574.7
Free Hit80.284.474.4
Wildcard83.284.374.4

 

We see that those who used Bench Boost were the only ones to beat their rivals, while the other chips helped managers gain over the “chipless” managers, though they still lost out on average compared to the teams around them.

Bench Boosters scored an impressive average of 94.9 points, which gave them a 20.1 points edge over normal teams and a 17.1 points gain over everyone who didn’t use that chip.

Meanwhile, those who turned to the Triple Captain scored an average of 83.3 points, which is lower than the remaining top 10k managers average of 84.5, meaning that they appeared to lose some ground.

This makes sense as the the main Triple Captain choices this week – Harry Kane, Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy – scored just a single goal over the two fixtures, while another, Alexis Sanchez, managed only two points.

Managers who tried something different and went for the use of Free Hit lost even more ground having scored an average of 80.2 points, compared to 84.4 points for the managers around them.

So, it has been a real success for most Bench Boosters this week. But was it because of their bench, or did they just select more wisely?

To examine this, I checked the substitutes of all Bench Boosters this week to get an idea of how much their reserves contributed.

Many managers left some big hitters on the bench because it doesn’t matter, so for a fair comparison, I rearranged every team so that the bench contained the players who didn’t feature, plus the cheapest assets who would normally not be in the starting XI.

The result was that, on average, the bench added 18.4 points for Bench Boosters in the top 10k and 17.8 points in the top 100k.

This is not a bad result, but also not spectacular, given that, under normal circumstances, we’d expect two points per fixture for each bench player will result in a Bench Boost of 16 points.

Still, those 18.4 points were the determining factor in the 20 points gained by the Bench Boosting managers this week.

In fact, many did better than that average bench.

For instance, look at this  impressive 41-point bench in the top 10k.

However, if you feel that your week didn’t go well, don’t worry: you are not alone.

You couldn’t be doing worse than Bench Boosters who got exactly zero points from their bench, like these top 50k teams here, here and here.

There is also this manager who saw his rank drop from 17k to 128k in one week by scoring just one point total 65(-64).

So, don’t panic yet; there are more opportunities for big scores on the horizon.

Speaking of which, let’s now have a look at the Gameweek 35 blanks and the opportunity open to managers who still own their Free Hit chip.

They are not at all a majority in the top 10k, with a percentage of just 33% as we can see in the updated chip use figure below.

members

But it seems certain that most of the managers with Free Hit intact will activate the chip for Gameweek 35 to help navigate the blanks.

Many of the managers who don’t have the chip used it for the other blanks in Gameweek 31; at that point, there was some extensive debate on whether that was the correct decision.

This is yet to be decided, but in any case, here are some statistics to help both managers plan for their Free Hit moves or transfers this week.

Teams that already used Free Hit currently have an average of 7.4 players with a fixture in Gameweek 35, so with 1.17 free transfers that could raise their number to 8.57 players without hits.

The distribution of current players ownership for non-Free Hit owners is shown below.
members

So, it seems that the majority have eight players, which could be raised to nine or 10 with transfer hits; that’s hardly disastrous in a Gameweek with just six fixtures.

But, of course, it’s quality not quantity that really matters.

The Free Hitters will have the advantage of picking players with absolute freedom this week to counter potential rotation and form fluctuation.

Therefore, let’s check on the current most owned players in the non-Free Hitter teams destined to start for them in Gameweek 35.

members

The most likely players to be very popular in non-Free Hit teams will include Nick Pope in goal, Andy Robertson, Nicolas Otamendi and Matthew Lowton in defence, while Mohamed Salah and Luka Milivojevic populate midfields.

The three main strikers are all without a fixture and that could be the area where managers will use their transfers.

Not shown in the image are the duo of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (36.6%) and Roberto Firmino (35.6%), who are likely to lead the lines of many non-Free Hit teams, but the remaining percentage of managers will look at other striking options too.

Finally, we check on the Premier League teams that are most represented in managers’ teams without the Free Hit chip to play.

members

We see that Liverpool is the team most represented in non-Free Hit teams, with an average of 1.8 players.

Burnley are second (1.4), and after that, we find an average of one player per team from Manchester City, Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Newcastle.

These figures might just help the current crop of Free Hitters when it comes to player selection as they bid to get an edge on rivals who have already activated the chip.

  1. _Ninja_
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    A. Klaven / KDB
    B. Milner / Sane

    Cheers

    1. Kevin Twine
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A

    2. The Tinkerman
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A

    3. michudagawd
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A

    4. james 101
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Yeah. A.

    5. WARIO
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A

    6. FantasyNik123
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B. Don't listen to the people above me.

    7. _Ninja_
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Wow, clearly A then. Cheers all!

    8. slamdunk
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A

  2. BobBradleysOpportunity
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    i just don't want to captain salah, its too boring

    1. conew
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      jesus

      1. james 101
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Making a suggestion or taking the lords name in vain?

    2. james 101
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Wouldn't it be a bit too exciting to cap someone else and then watch salah score a bunch though?

      1. BobBradleysOpportunity
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        nothing worse than watching salah and hoping he misses all 15 of his big chances every saturday

  3. conew
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    a bellerin
    b monreal
    c mustafi
    ??????

    1. FantasyNik123
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      AAAAA

      1. conew
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        why he didnt play for a lot of time

        1. krehbieh1
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          A if you're looking at Arsenal....

    2. Positive vibes
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A

  4. james 101
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    FH Team gtg / any changes to set up?

    Pickford
    PVA Baines Milner
    Salah(c) Sterling KDB. Mane. Zaha
    Laca. Jesus(vc)

    Bench: Nord, Perez, Tomkins, Long

    1. WARIO
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      g2g

    2. conew
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      pickfor to butland and milner to vvd

      1. james 101
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I looked at this also to be fair.

    3. krehbieh1
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      g2g

    4. Positive vibes
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Solid team, gtg.

  5. Desperately Seeking Dusan
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Scenes here if Wenger starts Aubamyang over Lacazette... looks like all of us on here have the latter after his comments.

    1. Zilla
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Starting both is an option too you know

      1. Guru Mediation
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Like he did last game

    2. Sarri-ball
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Im tempted wellbeck. Chance laca cones off for augbang after a hour. Laca played 90 mins v newcastle wellbeck played 20 so needs gametime

  6. TaiwanHC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Leading my mini-league by 40 points. Who to captain?

    A. Salah
    B. Sterling
    C. Jesus

    Thanks guys!

    1. NLB
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Salah the 'safe' pick

    2. Buck The Trent
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A

    3. FantasyNik123
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Salah. Easy.

    4. conew
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      a

    5. krehbieh1
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Ride Salah...

    6. Positive vibes
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A

  7. Sarri-ball
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Every team i see has Lacazette is wellbeck not a option? Money not important for me as on wildcard so 1 of them becomes kane next gw

    1. justlikehoney
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Don't get the love for Lacazette all of a sudden, been bang average most of the season. Even if Auba doesn't get the full game I'd rather have him in my side.

      1. Sarri-ball
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Im on a wildcard. To be fair i just need a striker for this week before get kane back. I just have feeling about welbeck

    2. agueroooooney
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      They're all a risk. I imagine Laca starting up front with Auba and Welbeck flanking or else Laca on bench with Auba starting up front (again Welbeck on the flank) are the two most likely options

  8. Buck The Trent
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    A or B ?

    A Mustafi Klavan,
    V VVD Kiko

    1. conew
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      b

    2. JoeSoap
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A

    3. Positive vibes
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A

  9. HD7
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Can somebody please write the leaked team of Pool If there is one already?
    Saw many teams without Firmino just now... probably he aint there...

    1. michudagawd
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Check Anfield Express Twitter.

      1. HD7
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Thanks bro, is it been so far correct in the line ups before ?

        1. michudagawd
          • 13 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Most of the time it has.

        2. Volley127
          • 13 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Everytime

  10. michudagawd
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Bottomed.

    Any changes needed to this free hit team?

    Hennessey (Nordfeldt)
    Van Dijk Lascelles Baines (Long, Haidara)
    Salah KDB Sterling Mané Zaha
    Jesus Lacazette (Barnes)

    Cheers.

    1. Toby Lerone
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Who's your capt?

  11. Fpl Richie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Best option. Currently have 2 each of pool, city and arsenal.

    A. Kompany Ozil.
    B. Sane Milner
    C. Kdb Moreno

    1. Les Bleus
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B

    2. Positive vibes
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      C with Klavan?

  12. The Overthinker
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Start one. Any why maybe ?

    Wood or milivojevic?

    1. Greenbackbøøg…
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      mili

    2. Positive vibes
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Mili, form and dead ball specialist

    3. Bob McMayday
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Mili. Wood played recently and Mili on pens

  13. Positive vibes
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Hi, please help, who is better choice?
    A. KDB
    B. Kompany
    C. Ota

    1. Milner
    2. VVD
    3. Klavan

    X. Zaha
    Y. Mili
    Z Tosun

    Thanks:)

    1. WARIO
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A
      1 (if you can afford)
      X

  14. Greenbackbøøg…
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Who scores more

    Ozil, Ederson, Yedlin

    KDB, Dubravka, Baines

    1. Zilla
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A

    2. camarozz
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B

      Im hoping!!

    3. WARIO
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B

    4. Positive vibes
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B

  15. rdamjan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Jesus o Sterling? No FH.

    1. rdamjan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Or*

    2. michudagawd
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Jesus

    3. WARIO
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Jesus

      1. Positive vibes
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        B with Klavan

        1. Positive vibes
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Sorry reply fail

    4. Positive vibes
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Gabriel

    5. WE GO FOR IT
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Sterling

  16. JoeSoap
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    A. Mustafi & Kompany
    B. Klavan/Gomez/Moreno (pick 1) & Ota

    On FH

    1. WARIO
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B with Klavan/Moreno

      1. JoeSoap
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Thanks

    2. Positive vibes
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B with Klavan

  17. Manani
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Alonso + Kane > Jesus + Kompany (-4)??

    1. FF Dirtbag
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Yes

  18. Colonel Shoe 肝池
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    arnie or sane?

    1. FF Dirtbag
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Sane

    2. WARIO
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Sane

  19. Aston-villain
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Havent seen Aubameyang in many FH teams...anyone know why?

    1. Team Cruel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Wenger hinted that he may use this as a rehearsal for Atleti.

      1. Aston-villain
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Ah right...cheers

  20. TaiwanHC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    BOOM!

    Butland
    Bellerin - Baines - Klavan
    Salah (C) - Mané - Sterling - Sané - Zaha
    Jesus - Lacazette

    3.9, Long, Crouch, Dummett

    1. WARIO
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Very similar to mine below - so I like it!

    2. Messsiaah
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Same team.

    3. Bagheri Arce
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      We have the same team but I have Ozil/Walker over Bellerin/Sane.

      I like both options tbf but spreading the attacking risk this way with 2x Pool, Arsenal, City. Plus feel City cleanie more likely than Arsenal.

      What's your thoughts?

  21. WARIO
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Any last minute thoughts?
    Butland
    Bellerin - Klavan - Baines
    Salah (C) - Mane - KDB - Sterling - Shaqiri
    Jesus - Lacazette

    3.9 - Chambers - Long - Crouch

    Biggest decisions are:
    A) Salah or Jesus captain
    B) Shaq or Zaha

    1. BobBradleysOpportunity
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      i like the shaq pick, I've just swapped zaha out for shaq i have a feeling shaq is on pens

      1. WARIO
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Didn't even consider that, would love it if true. Feel this is Stoke's last chance, must win game. Shaq is their main man and will hopefully be fired up

    2. Release The Ox
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Always captain Salah! Fancy Zaha as he’s in good form, everything GeForce Palace goes through him and Watford are on the beach

      1. WARIO
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Yeah even if he gets 60 mins I think it has to be him - even vs Jesus with 90 mins.
        Would love to have Zaha and Shaq... such a tough choice

    3. KLOPPTOMANIA
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I have v similar but Klaven to VVD and Shaqiri to Zaha.

      Hope you do well 🙂

      1. WARIO
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Thanks mate, you too!

  22. Release The Ox
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Milner and Laca or Moreno and Auba??

    1. KLOPPTOMANIA
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A

  23. The 12th Man
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Gtg?
    Ederson
    Kiko,Lowton,Yedlin,Fernandez
    Salah(vc)Walcott,Sterling,Zaha
    Jesus(c)Barnes

    DDG,Kane,Alli,Simpson

    Not on a FH. Only BB left

  24. the snazzy viking
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Trailing ML by 39 points, but in a good position to reach my season target of top 50k/top 1% (currently 71k)

    Salah (C), or someone from City?

  25. Salarrivederci
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    What do you think of this WC team? Going to BB in GW37.

    Dubravka
    Bellerin, VvD, Klavan, Milner
    Sterling, KDB (C), Zaha, Sane
    Pérez, Lacazette

    (Fabianski, Ayew, Vertonghen, Eriksen)
    1.7 ITB

    Next GW: Laca + VvD/Milner -> Lascelles + Kane (-4)

    Before GW37: Milner/VvD + Klavan -> Fernandez + Smalling (and use BB with 14 DGW + Zaha)

    1. Salarrivederci
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Any1?

  26. SADIO SANÉ
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    anyone chancing Moreno/Gomez?

  27. Dynamic
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Thoughts on my FH team.

    Cech (3.9m)
    Baines Bauer Klavan (Long, 3.9m)
    Salah KDB Sterling Mane Zaha
    Jesus Auba (4.5m)

    Thanks.

    1. KLOPPTOMANIA
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Doubts on Auba starting, Laca seems more secure

      1. Dynamic
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Sorry.

        That was meant to be Laca haha.

  28. camarozz
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Chambers over Bellerin allows me Zaha over Mili and im covered by ok bench.

    Yes or no?

  29. Athletic Nasherbo
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Thoughts on this FH team?

    Pickford
    Bellerin Van Dijk Jagielka
    Salah Mane Sterling Sane Zaha
    Lacazette Jesus

    Hennessey Mariappa Long Campbell

  30. Simon March
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Current FH Team:

    Butland
    Bellerin, Milner, Baines
    Shaq, Salah (C), Sterling, Zaha, Silva
    Jesus(vc), Auba.

    Subs: Hennessy, Long, Lejune, Crouch.

    GTG or any suggestions?