Metrics
20 April 2018 3973 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
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In our latest dip into the Fantasy Premier League metrics, we look back at the results of the chips employed for Double Gameweek 34 before looking ahead to the much-anticipated use of the Free Hit for the blanks in Gameweek 35.

As we’ve seen, Gameweek 34 was a relatively high-scoring one, with the overall average score being 64 (not including transfer hits).

I calculated that the top 10k and 100k averages with hits factored in, and the results are a massive 84.3 points for the top 10k and 81.2 for the top 100k. Pretty impressive.

The effect of using Bench Boost chip helped many to beat even this high average.

Managers in the top 100k reached as high as 134 points this week, while one 10k manager scored 131 points.

Granted, we have seen higher scores in previous Double Gameweeks, but this week was not as bad as it was threatening to be, with many managers scoring 90+ points and a rash of green arrows.

To quantify this more, let’s have a look at the points the top 10k managers gained by using the different chips this week.

Chip UsedPointsPoints for all other managersPoints for managers who used no chips
Bench Boost94.977.874.7
Triple Captain83.384.574.7
Free Hit80.284.474.4
Wildcard83.284.374.4

 

We see that those who used Bench Boost were the only ones to beat their rivals, while the other chips helped managers gain over the “chipless” managers, though they still lost out on average compared to the teams around them.

Bench Boosters scored an impressive average of 94.9 points, which gave them a 20.1 points edge over normal teams and a 17.1 points gain over everyone who didn’t use that chip.

Meanwhile, those who turned to the Triple Captain scored an average of 83.3 points, which is lower than the remaining top 10k managers average of 84.5, meaning that they appeared to lose some ground.

This makes sense as the the main Triple Captain choices this week – Harry Kane, Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy – scored just a single goal over the two fixtures, while another, Alexis Sanchez, managed only two points.

Managers who tried something different and went for the use of Free Hit lost even more ground having scored an average of 80.2 points, compared to 84.4 points for the managers around them.

So, it has been a real success for most Bench Boosters this week. But was it because of their bench, or did they just select more wisely?

To examine this, I checked the substitutes of all Bench Boosters this week to get an idea of how much their reserves contributed.

Many managers left some big hitters on the bench because it doesn’t matter, so for a fair comparison, I rearranged every team so that the bench contained the players who didn’t feature, plus the cheapest assets who would normally not be in the starting XI.

The result was that, on average, the bench added 18.4 points for Bench Boosters in the top 10k and 17.8 points in the top 100k.

This is not a bad result, but also not spectacular, given that, under normal circumstances, we’d expect two points per fixture for each bench player will result in a Bench Boost of 16 points.

Still, those 18.4 points were the determining factor in the 20 points gained by the Bench Boosting managers this week.

In fact, many did better than that average bench.

For instance, look at this  impressive 41-point bench in the top 10k.

However, if you feel that your week didn’t go well, don’t worry: you are not alone.

You couldn’t be doing worse than Bench Boosters who got exactly zero points from their bench, like these top 50k teams here, here and here.

There is also this manager who saw his rank drop from 17k to 128k in one week by scoring just one point total 65(-64).

So, don’t panic yet; there are more opportunities for big scores on the horizon.

Speaking of which, let’s now have a look at the Gameweek 35 blanks and the opportunity open to managers who still own their Free Hit chip.

They are not at all a majority in the top 10k, with a percentage of just 33% as we can see in the updated chip use figure below.

members

But it seems certain that most of the managers with Free Hit intact will activate the chip for Gameweek 35 to help navigate the blanks.

Many of the managers who don’t have the chip used it for the other blanks in Gameweek 31; at that point, there was some extensive debate on whether that was the correct decision.

This is yet to be decided, but in any case, here are some statistics to help both managers plan for their Free Hit moves or transfers this week.

Teams that already used Free Hit currently have an average of 7.4 players with a fixture in Gameweek 35, so with 1.17 free transfers that could raise their number to 8.57 players without hits.

The distribution of current players ownership for non-Free Hit owners is shown below.
members

So, it seems that the majority have eight players, which could be raised to nine or 10 with transfer hits; that’s hardly disastrous in a Gameweek with just six fixtures.

But, of course, it’s quality not quantity that really matters.

The Free Hitters will have the advantage of picking players with absolute freedom this week to counter potential rotation and form fluctuation.

Therefore, let’s check on the current most owned players in the non-Free Hitter teams destined to start for them in Gameweek 35.

members

The most likely players to be very popular in non-Free Hit teams will include Nick Pope in goal, Andy Robertson, Nicolas Otamendi and Matthew Lowton in defence, while Mohamed Salah and Luka Milivojevic populate midfields.

The three main strikers are all without a fixture and that could be the area where managers will use their transfers.

Not shown in the image are the duo of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (36.6%) and Roberto Firmino (35.6%), who are likely to lead the lines of many non-Free Hit teams, but the remaining percentage of managers will look at other striking options too.

Finally, we check on the Premier League teams that are most represented in managers’ teams without the Free Hit chip to play.

members

We see that Liverpool is the team most represented in non-Free Hit teams, with an average of 1.8 players.

Burnley are second (1.4), and after that, we find an average of one player per team from Manchester City, Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Newcastle.

These figures might just help the current crop of Free Hitters when it comes to player selection as they bid to get an edge on rivals who have already activated the chip.

  1. TeddiPonza
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    How is this FH team?

    Cech
    Mustafi Moreno Jagielka
    Salah (c) Sterling KdB Mane Zaha
    Jesus (vc) Laca

    Subs: Hart Ayoze Long Mariappa

    1. krehbieh1
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I might spread out some of the Arsenal Def risk with Butland/Pickford

      1. WARIO
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Agree with this with Butland

  2. Team Cruel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Just wanted you guys to know that Theo Walcott is at home to Newcastle this GW.

    1. Hybrid.power
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Ha, I was only just thinking of him

  3. Jairzinho
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Great article, Ragabolly. Thanks!

    Out of interest, why was Everton excluded from the average number of players included in non-free hit teams?

    1. Ragabolly
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      They have lower numbers than the ones I put there, so I just included the highest six teams for figure visibility.

  4. Danstoke82
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Repost;

    Current team (no FH available)

    Adrian*
    VVD Lowton Kompany Bavies*
    Salah Milivojevic Zaha Sterling
    Barnes Firmino

    Subs; DDG Kane Lingard Daniels

    At -8.

    Is a -12 too much as Thinking of swapping Adrian to Dubravka ready for BB DGW37. Plus will have a playing keeper for this GW.

  5. conew
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    in first 11
    a Tomkins
    b Belerin
    ?

    1. UnitedFan
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B

    2. krehbieh1
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B

    3. WARIO
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B

  6. Fpl Richie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Why is Klavan more popular than Moreno?

    1. krehbieh1
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      $$$$

  7. UnitedFan
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    A) Mane (Double with Salah) + Klavan + 1 starter on bench (Long)

    B) Zaha (Double with Mili) + Milner + 2 starters on bench (Long + Mariappa)

    1. conew
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      a but find money for at least 2 starters on bench

    2. WARIO
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A

  8. seanie3
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    what do you think of my FH team, are there any changes you would make

    Pickford
    Baines, Mustafi, Milner
    Salah, Mane, Silva, Sterling, Zaha
    Jesus, Lacazette
    (3.9, Barnes, Kiko, Tomkins)

    1. krehbieh1
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      gtg

      1. seanie3
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        cheers

  9. Granville
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Looking for at least one differential in a free hit team.

    Silva, Welbeck, Shaqiri look like the ones to go for

    1. The 12th Man
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      They look good. How Bolasie?

      1. Granville
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Everton just don't score goals.

        1. The 12th Man
          • 12 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Has to be Silva from those 3.

    2. Bubz
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Ramsey

      1. TLF
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        You reckon Ramsey is a better punt than Zaha this week Bubz ?

        1. Bubz
          • 12 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Zaha's a much safer pick. I'm just going full on punt with Ramsey. Depends on what you're trying to achieve

          1. TLF
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            I guess you are aiming for that top 1k where as I'm a lowly 50k manager trying to win my mini league lol. Zaha has been in my team all week, other mids are Salah, Mane, Sterling & Sane so think I'll stick. Got Laca & Belllerin on board for some Arsenal points (hopefully). Good luck with Ramsey, such a quality player.

    3. Hybrid.power
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Shaqiri is in my team. Welbeck...oh do I have the balls?

    4. WARIO
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Shaqiri nailed in my team - the main man in a team in last chance saloon playing at home. Add in the fact Burnley played (poorly) on Thursday night, and I think he's a great option

    5. camarozz
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      You just gave me an idea. Getting Silva over KDB affords Zaha over Mili Laca

      1. camarozz
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Laca not ment to be there !!

    6. Halftime
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Tomkins has been doing well lately

    7. seanie3
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      gotta be silva, he normally runs the show, sometimes that transpires into points and sometimes not, but always involved in most attacks, so could either assist or be on the end of one

  10. NLB
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Final two spots:

    A. KDB + Tomkins or
    B. Sane + Bellerin?

    Thanks all!

  11. L S P
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    is this W enough for a WC?

    Ederson-Fab
    VVD-Baines-Yedlin-Tomkins-Long
    Salah-Mane-Sterling-Zaha-Kenedy
    Jesus-Laca-Wood

  12. Manani
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    is Kane > Jesus pretty stupid move? considering I will want him back next GW

    1. @fpl_phenom
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Need to see your team really

      1. Manani
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        other 2 forward is Auba and Barnes

        1. @fpl_phenom
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          I don’t like it to be honest .... hokey kokey rarely works, got Salah? (C) him....

  13. Fpl Richie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Repost if you allow....

    Best option? Currently have 2 each of pool, city and arsenal.

    A. Kompany Ozil.
    B. Sane Milner
    C. Kdb Moreno

  14. @fpl_phenom
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Cech
    Bellerin Coleman Moreno
    Salah(C) Mane KDB Sterling Zaha
    Jesus(V) Lacazette
    -------------------------------------------
    Nordfelt . Crouch. Long. Dummett

    Thoughts on this team?

    Hate that I’m free hitting out Aubamayang... feel like he won’t start though....

    1. WARIO
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Looks great - personally wouldn't go double Arsenal defence though

      1. @fpl_phenom
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        That’s my biggest concern also... Butland?....

        1. WARIO
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          I have Butland so he'd be my choice. Little confidence in anyone other than City or Liverpool keeping a CS though

  15. BEEZUS
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    A) Walker, Bellerin, Milner and Tosun

    Or

    B) Kompany, Mustafi, Moreno and Lacazette

  16. Colonel Shoe 肝池
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    no arnie love?

    1. Halftime
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Should do well with Lanzini back I think

  17. tm370
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Having re-looked at Wenger's comments I'm removing Laca:

    “This weekend is preparation for (next) Thursday. I rested some players after the CSKA Moscow (semi-final second leg) match, and they will need a game. It is not so much rest, but preparation.''

    Welbeck (Rested last week) will play along with Ramsey (didn't play last week) and only one of Laca (played 90 last week) and Aub. I'm going to get Ramsey in instead I think and avoid the risk

    1. MTPockets
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I'm going Ozil for same reason.

    2. Dsmythy
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Do we reckon Chambers will line up for Arsenal?

      1. @fpl_phenom
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        No

    3. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      For non FH team is Lascelles good option to get in as week 35 player, good 36 fixture and double 37?

      1. @fpl_phenom
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Potentially on the beach now would be my only worry

      2. Danstoke82
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I reckon so. I’m looking to bring in a Newcastle player but might go yedlin as he’s cheap and nailed

    4. Athletic Nasherbo
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      How’s this looking guys?

      Pickford
      Bellerin Van Dijk Jagielka
      Salah Mane Sterling Sane Zaha
      Lacazette Jesus

      Hennessey Mariappa Long Campbell

      1. Udo
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        solid

    5. Z
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A. Butland, Bellerin, Moreno, Sane

      B. Ederson, Bellerin, VVD, Zaha

      C. Cech, Kompany, Milner, Zaha

    6. VDiesel26
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      FH, money no issue

      Aubameyang or Lacazette

      Other striker is Jesus, most probably going with 2 up front (Looks like firminho wont play?)

      1. @fpl_phenom
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        He won’t start anyway ...

        Lacazatte will start

        Aubamayang maybe rested, best case starts on the wing...

    7. bel24
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      This is my tuppence worth. Just don’t know who to pick as 2nd forward. It’s one of Tosun/Ings

      Happy with the rest

      Cech
      Baines Milner Lowton
      Salah De Bruyne Ozil Sterling Zaha
      Jesus —— *Tosun or Ings*
      (Ospina, Long, Bauer)

    8. krehbieh1
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      GW35 on a FH:

      Butland, $3.9
      Baines, PvA, Long, _____, _____
      Salah, Sterling, Zaha, _____, _____
      Jesus, Lacazette, _____

      A. Firmino, Sane, Loftus-Cheek, Klavan, Bauer
      B. Tosun, KDB, Loftus-Cheek, Klavan, Bauer
      C. Tosun, KDB, King, VVD, Mbemba
      D. Perez, KDB, Gudmundsson, VVD, Dummett

      1. tm370
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        B

        1. krehbieh1
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Thanks! Feeling the same, want to captain Jesus, but can't bring myself to do it

    9. Lignja
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Pls help me on last few spots.

      1. Ozil, Lowton, Henesy
      2. Zaha, Pva, Pope

      1. Manani
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        2

    10. SW6
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      The PL would be lucky to have Fulham next year 😉

    11. @fpl_phenom
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Baines or Coleman?? And why?

    12. ♤TeddyBear♤
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Even with Wenger''s comments I am struggling to see how laca is a better option that auba...... can you guys enlighten me to why laca is in so many teams ?

      1. @fpl_phenom
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Because Wenger said he might not play Aubamayang... that’s it, people want the starting player

        1. ♤TeddyBear♤
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          He really didn't say he would start laca though. He can also start both.

          1. @fpl_phenom
            • 10 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            But he said it’s prep for Thirsday night so would that not mean Welbz starting in the wing ahead of Aubamayang....

            So frustrating, I obviously want Aubamayang the most...

    13. The Yorkshire Pirlo
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Just a show of votes who’s going Sane or KDB?

      Atm I have Sane over KDB.

      1. krehbieh1
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        KDB over Sane for me, but have been back and forth.

      2. Mulla
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Im stuck over this, I think the general vibe is that if David Silva plays then KDB is deployed in a deeper role.
        Sane has explosive potential but may not get the minutes, all swings and roundabouts tbh.
        Will probably flip a coin...

    14. DAZZ
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Which city defender is the best option for us non FHers, likely to hold on untill the end of the season. Kompany?

      1. @fpl_phenom
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Kompany for me yes