Metrics
20 April 2018 3973 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
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In our latest dip into the Fantasy Premier League metrics, we look back at the results of the chips employed for Double Gameweek 34 before looking ahead to the much-anticipated use of the Free Hit for the blanks in Gameweek 35.

As we’ve seen, Gameweek 34 was a relatively high-scoring one, with the overall average score being 64 (not including transfer hits).

I calculated that the top 10k and 100k averages with hits factored in, and the results are a massive 84.3 points for the top 10k and 81.2 for the top 100k. Pretty impressive.

The effect of using Bench Boost chip helped many to beat even this high average.

Managers in the top 100k reached as high as 134 points this week, while one 10k manager scored 131 points.

Granted, we have seen higher scores in previous Double Gameweeks, but this week was not as bad as it was threatening to be, with many managers scoring 90+ points and a rash of green arrows.

To quantify this more, let’s have a look at the points the top 10k managers gained by using the different chips this week.

Chip UsedPointsPoints for all other managersPoints for managers who used no chips
Bench Boost94.977.874.7
Triple Captain83.384.574.7
Free Hit80.284.474.4
Wildcard83.284.374.4

 

We see that those who used Bench Boost were the only ones to beat their rivals, while the other chips helped managers gain over the “chipless” managers, though they still lost out on average compared to the teams around them.

Bench Boosters scored an impressive average of 94.9 points, which gave them a 20.1 points edge over normal teams and a 17.1 points gain over everyone who didn’t use that chip.

Meanwhile, those who turned to the Triple Captain scored an average of 83.3 points, which is lower than the remaining top 10k managers average of 84.5, meaning that they appeared to lose some ground.

This makes sense as the the main Triple Captain choices this week – Harry Kane, Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy – scored just a single goal over the two fixtures, while another, Alexis Sanchez, managed only two points.

Managers who tried something different and went for the use of Free Hit lost even more ground having scored an average of 80.2 points, compared to 84.4 points for the managers around them.

So, it has been a real success for most Bench Boosters this week. But was it because of their bench, or did they just select more wisely?

To examine this, I checked the substitutes of all Bench Boosters this week to get an idea of how much their reserves contributed.

Many managers left some big hitters on the bench because it doesn’t matter, so for a fair comparison, I rearranged every team so that the bench contained the players who didn’t feature, plus the cheapest assets who would normally not be in the starting XI.

The result was that, on average, the bench added 18.4 points for Bench Boosters in the top 10k and 17.8 points in the top 100k.

This is not a bad result, but also not spectacular, given that, under normal circumstances, we’d expect two points per fixture for each bench player will result in a Bench Boost of 16 points.

Still, those 18.4 points were the determining factor in the 20 points gained by the Bench Boosting managers this week.

In fact, many did better than that average bench.

For instance, look at this  impressive 41-point bench in the top 10k.

However, if you feel that your week didn’t go well, don’t worry: you are not alone.

You couldn’t be doing worse than Bench Boosters who got exactly zero points from their bench, like these top 50k teams here, here and here.

There is also this manager who saw his rank drop from 17k to 128k in one week by scoring just one point total 65(-64).

So, don’t panic yet; there are more opportunities for big scores on the horizon.

Speaking of which, let’s now have a look at the Gameweek 35 blanks and the opportunity open to managers who still own their Free Hit chip.

They are not at all a majority in the top 10k, with a percentage of just 33% as we can see in the updated chip use figure below.

members

But it seems certain that most of the managers with Free Hit intact will activate the chip for Gameweek 35 to help navigate the blanks.

Many of the managers who don’t have the chip used it for the other blanks in Gameweek 31; at that point, there was some extensive debate on whether that was the correct decision.

This is yet to be decided, but in any case, here are some statistics to help both managers plan for their Free Hit moves or transfers this week.

Teams that already used Free Hit currently have an average of 7.4 players with a fixture in Gameweek 35, so with 1.17 free transfers that could raise their number to 8.57 players without hits.

The distribution of current players ownership for non-Free Hit owners is shown below.
members

So, it seems that the majority have eight players, which could be raised to nine or 10 with transfer hits; that’s hardly disastrous in a Gameweek with just six fixtures.

But, of course, it’s quality not quantity that really matters.

The Free Hitters will have the advantage of picking players with absolute freedom this week to counter potential rotation and form fluctuation.

Therefore, let’s check on the current most owned players in the non-Free Hitter teams destined to start for them in Gameweek 35.

members

The most likely players to be very popular in non-Free Hit teams will include Nick Pope in goal, Andy Robertson, Nicolas Otamendi and Matthew Lowton in defence, while Mohamed Salah and Luka Milivojevic populate midfields.

The three main strikers are all without a fixture and that could be the area where managers will use their transfers.

Not shown in the image are the duo of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (36.6%) and Roberto Firmino (35.6%), who are likely to lead the lines of many non-Free Hit teams, but the remaining percentage of managers will look at other striking options too.

Finally, we check on the Premier League teams that are most represented in managers’ teams without the Free Hit chip to play.

members

We see that Liverpool is the team most represented in non-Free Hit teams, with an average of 1.8 players.

Burnley are second (1.4), and after that, we find an average of one player per team from Manchester City, Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Newcastle.

These figures might just help the current crop of Free Hitters when it comes to player selection as they bid to get an edge on rivals who have already activated the chip.

  1. Manani
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Kenedy Salah Willian Sterling Son
    Barnes Auba Kane

    should I get Jesus by switching out Kane for (-4)?

    1. Yogi_mike
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Yes

    2. Buck The Trent
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Yeses

    3. Hawk Eye
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Yes

  2. doublyG
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Am I missing something or do the scout picks have six midfielders??!

    1. Manani
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      they do 1 sub for each position regardless of starting 11

      1. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Do they actually? That's odd.

      2. doublyG
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I never noticed

    2. Netley Lucas
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Saw that too, Milly benched in a 3-5-2

  3. Marquis-Cha-Cha
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Eh?

    Butland
    Mustafi / Long / VVD
    Zaha / Mili / Salah / KDB / Sterling
    Laca / Jesus

    Henn / Perez / Kiki / Lowton

  4. camarozz
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Think iv settled on this FH team

    Dubravka

    Baines /Milner /Bellerin

    Salah(c)/Silva/Sterling/Shaq/Mane

    Jesus/Laca

    (3.9/Perez /Long /Tomkins)

  5. Scotty B
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Which one?
    A Eriksen > KDB
    B Alonso > Walker
    C Alonso > Otamendi
    D Ake > Kompany

    1. Toby Lerone
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A easy

      1. Scotty B
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Really???Why??

  6. BON
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    My final FH team, and probably the best...

    Butland
    Millner, Bellerin, Baines
    Salah (c), KDB, Sterling, Zaha, Shaqiri
    Lacazette, Jesus (vc)

    Hennessey, Perez, Lowton, Long

  7. GuillermoDickero
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Repost as at the bottom

    Just looked at stokes chances conceded over the last four weeks, and they have the worst record in the Prem.

    Surely Cech or Pickford are better options than Butland?

    1. Netley Lucas
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Relegation worries can bring out the cleanies, see Saints - even Stoke nearly cleaned @whm

    2. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      People bang on about save points but Burnley don't create much. They still find ways to score though - expected points probably about 2.5-3 for him in this game I reckon.

    3. Sir Edo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Yes, but Thursday game might affect Burnley..

    4. Bragazeti
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Butland gets saves points and will likely be in the bps if Stoke manage a positive result

  8. 824545201
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    G2G? (Free Hit) Bottomed

    Cech
    Baines - Mustafi - VVD
    Sane - Sterling - Zaha - Salah - Mane
    Jesus - Laca

  9. ChristoBisto
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Baines or Bellerin on FH? No other Eve or Ars defence in team.

    1. Positive vibes
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Baines imo

    2. Connor's Calling
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Bell

      1. ChristoBisto
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Bit harsh

  10. Positive vibes
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Bottomed to:

    A. KDB or City def
    B. Milner or VVD

    Any thought who is better?
    Cheers

  11. Super Frank8
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    How do we see Arsenal lining up on Sunday? Think Scout's predicted lineup is sketchy. Chambers and Iwobi to start?

    1. Sir Edo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Missing Welbeck in Team News section as well..

  12. Tmel
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Torn between Ozil & KDB, feel that both Arsenal or City could put on a show this weekend (Arsenal for Wenger and City to celebrate the title in front of their fans). Which one to go for?

    1. MTPockets
        7 years, 10 months ago

        KDB, although I have Ozil (and other mci mids).

    2. Pachi
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A) bellerin and klavan / moreno
      Or
      B) milner and lowton

    3. The Mighty Whites
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Monreal or Mustafi?

    4. Zizou
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Think I'm set with this lot

      Pickford
      Bellerin baines klaven
      Sane sterling salah (vc) mane zaha
      Laca jesus (c)
      (Elliot, perez, long, tomkins)

      1. Buck The Trent
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        solid

        1. Zizou
          • 16 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          thanks

    5. Yogi_mike
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      G2G?
      Butland
      Baines VVD Kompany
      Salah Dilva Zaha Mane Shaquiri
      Jesus Laca
      3.9 PVA Crouch Lowton

      1. Yogi_mike
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Or upgrade Dilva to Sane? Want a differential

    6. TLF
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      JRod v Rondon, any views ? stat comparison favours Rondon last 4 matches but JRod last 2, one of them will most likely be my first sub.

      1. Buck The Trent
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        not much in it

        1. TLF
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          I prefer J Rod as a player so may opt for him, cheers.

    7. magnet
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Any glaring errors here?

      Butland
      Baines Bellerin Milner
      Sterling Zaha Salah Milli Sane
      Jesus Laca

    8. GXNG
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Ings anyone?

    9. The King
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Can you use wildcard and the bench boost for the same gameweek?

      1. Netley Lucas
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Nah

      2. Connor's Calling
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Sadly not

        Both are counted as chips and you can only play 1 chip per week

      3. Ravager
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Nope. One chip a week

      4. The King
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Ok thanks

    10. BrutalLogiC
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Butland
      Bellerin / Baines / Ota / VVD
      Mane / Zaha / Salah / Sterling
      Jesus / Laca

      Hennessey Milivojevic Perez Monreal

      Not keen on Firminho because of Anfieldexpress.
      Not keen on Aubu because of Wenger sayings about same team for Europe.
      Could quite easily get KDB in but dunno if it's worth it over Ota (last time KDB scored +6?? feels like ages)
      Question marks over VVD but who else.
      Not so sure Butland over Cech better either:/

      1. umerlfc
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Get Silva or Sane instead of Ota then
        4 at the back seems risky in a FH

    11. Connor's Calling
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Sane or KDB, just for GW35?

      Any danger Sane doesn’t start?

      1. Buck The Trent
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        K

      2. magnet
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Go with Sterling and Sane to cover yourself

    12. Positive vibes
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Is Gabriel Jesus, Sterling and KDB too overkill?
      Or prefer add City def for KDB?
      Thanks.

      1. Colonel Shoe 肝池
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        i think im going with ederson......good chance of a cleanie

      2. Netley Lucas
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Too overkill? Not even overkill

      3. Clintymints
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        MORE KILL

    13. davies
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A) Lacazette Baines Milner

      B) Aubameyang Coleman Moreno

    14. umerlfc
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Silva or Sane?

      1. Yogi_mike
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I was just about to ask this... I want Dilva cause differential but Sane makes more sense.. Gut says Dilva

      2. Netley Lucas
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        SIlva is more of an awayer

    15. HD7
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A) Klavan, KDB
      B) Milner, Sane

      1. Colonel Shoe 肝池
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        a

    16. Colonel Shoe 肝池
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      frik it im sticking with arnie 😎

      1. Gnu
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Good call Sarah.......

    17. Hawk Eye
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Mane or Ozil?

      1. payasito
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        my question exactly. I have both laca and salah.

      2. Clintymints
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Prob Mane

        Why the Ozil love I am seeing?

    18. SADIO SANÉ
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      a) Moreno, Zaha, Laca

      b) Bellerin, Ozil, Wood

      1. Toby Lerone
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        A

    19. svv040
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Nice article! I would like to see whether the BB will be so beneficial if you consider Gw 34-36 altogether. Especially if you don't have FH! Whatever you gained in 34 might be lost 35, since most of your players are missing a fixture. I'm currently in that position. Got 120 points this Gw, just because my bench was single week players. If I had FH chip, my squad would have been different(all DGweekers + salah) and end up with 100 points. Now I should take hits or field 7-8. This will close the gap that 34 gave me, so I expect no sufficient move in ranking for after 34 and 35