Metrics
20 April 2018 3973 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
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In our latest dip into the Fantasy Premier League metrics, we look back at the results of the chips employed for Double Gameweek 34 before looking ahead to the much-anticipated use of the Free Hit for the blanks in Gameweek 35.

As we’ve seen, Gameweek 34 was a relatively high-scoring one, with the overall average score being 64 (not including transfer hits).

I calculated that the top 10k and 100k averages with hits factored in, and the results are a massive 84.3 points for the top 10k and 81.2 for the top 100k. Pretty impressive.

The effect of using Bench Boost chip helped many to beat even this high average.

Managers in the top 100k reached as high as 134 points this week, while one 10k manager scored 131 points.

Granted, we have seen higher scores in previous Double Gameweeks, but this week was not as bad as it was threatening to be, with many managers scoring 90+ points and a rash of green arrows.

To quantify this more, let’s have a look at the points the top 10k managers gained by using the different chips this week.

Chip UsedPointsPoints for all other managersPoints for managers who used no chips
Bench Boost94.977.874.7
Triple Captain83.384.574.7
Free Hit80.284.474.4
Wildcard83.284.374.4

 

We see that those who used Bench Boost were the only ones to beat their rivals, while the other chips helped managers gain over the “chipless” managers, though they still lost out on average compared to the teams around them.

Bench Boosters scored an impressive average of 94.9 points, which gave them a 20.1 points edge over normal teams and a 17.1 points gain over everyone who didn’t use that chip.

Meanwhile, those who turned to the Triple Captain scored an average of 83.3 points, which is lower than the remaining top 10k managers average of 84.5, meaning that they appeared to lose some ground.

This makes sense as the the main Triple Captain choices this week – Harry Kane, Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy – scored just a single goal over the two fixtures, while another, Alexis Sanchez, managed only two points.

Managers who tried something different and went for the use of Free Hit lost even more ground having scored an average of 80.2 points, compared to 84.4 points for the managers around them.

So, it has been a real success for most Bench Boosters this week. But was it because of their bench, or did they just select more wisely?

To examine this, I checked the substitutes of all Bench Boosters this week to get an idea of how much their reserves contributed.

Many managers left some big hitters on the bench because it doesn’t matter, so for a fair comparison, I rearranged every team so that the bench contained the players who didn’t feature, plus the cheapest assets who would normally not be in the starting XI.

The result was that, on average, the bench added 18.4 points for Bench Boosters in the top 10k and 17.8 points in the top 100k.

This is not a bad result, but also not spectacular, given that, under normal circumstances, we’d expect two points per fixture for each bench player will result in a Bench Boost of 16 points.

Still, those 18.4 points were the determining factor in the 20 points gained by the Bench Boosting managers this week.

In fact, many did better than that average bench.

For instance, look at this  impressive 41-point bench in the top 10k.

However, if you feel that your week didn’t go well, don’t worry: you are not alone.

You couldn’t be doing worse than Bench Boosters who got exactly zero points from their bench, like these top 50k teams here, here and here.

There is also this manager who saw his rank drop from 17k to 128k in one week by scoring just one point total 65(-64).

So, don’t panic yet; there are more opportunities for big scores on the horizon.

Speaking of which, let’s now have a look at the Gameweek 35 blanks and the opportunity open to managers who still own their Free Hit chip.

They are not at all a majority in the top 10k, with a percentage of just 33% as we can see in the updated chip use figure below.

members

But it seems certain that most of the managers with Free Hit intact will activate the chip for Gameweek 35 to help navigate the blanks.

Many of the managers who don’t have the chip used it for the other blanks in Gameweek 31; at that point, there was some extensive debate on whether that was the correct decision.

This is yet to be decided, but in any case, here are some statistics to help both managers plan for their Free Hit moves or transfers this week.

Teams that already used Free Hit currently have an average of 7.4 players with a fixture in Gameweek 35, so with 1.17 free transfers that could raise their number to 8.57 players without hits.

The distribution of current players ownership for non-Free Hit owners is shown below.
members

So, it seems that the majority have eight players, which could be raised to nine or 10 with transfer hits; that’s hardly disastrous in a Gameweek with just six fixtures.

But, of course, it’s quality not quantity that really matters.

The Free Hitters will have the advantage of picking players with absolute freedom this week to counter potential rotation and form fluctuation.

Therefore, let’s check on the current most owned players in the non-Free Hitter teams destined to start for them in Gameweek 35.

members

The most likely players to be very popular in non-Free Hit teams will include Nick Pope in goal, Andy Robertson, Nicolas Otamendi and Matthew Lowton in defence, while Mohamed Salah and Luka Milivojevic populate midfields.

The three main strikers are all without a fixture and that could be the area where managers will use their transfers.

Not shown in the image are the duo of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (36.6%) and Roberto Firmino (35.6%), who are likely to lead the lines of many non-Free Hit teams, but the remaining percentage of managers will look at other striking options too.

Finally, we check on the Premier League teams that are most represented in managers’ teams without the Free Hit chip to play.

members

We see that Liverpool is the team most represented in non-Free Hit teams, with an average of 1.8 players.

Burnley are second (1.4), and after that, we find an average of one player per team from Manchester City, Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Newcastle.

These figures might just help the current crop of Free Hitters when it comes to player selection as they bid to get an edge on rivals who have already activated the chip.

  1. tm370
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    I'm set. Given Wenger's actual comments, I'm not confident in Laca or Aub starting so have avoided. Imo Aub and Welbeck will start though.

    Butland
    Bellerin, Milner, Baines
    Sane, Mane, Sterling, Salah (C), Ramsey,
    Jesus, Tosun

    Hennesey, Welbeck, Mariappa, Long

  2. davies
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Laca or Auba

  3. Buck The Trent
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Anyone punting on Ozil ?

    1. MTPockets
        7 years, 10 months ago

        yep

      • Hawk Eye
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Will he play??

      • VDiesel26
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        On a FT have him in for now but not sure...

        Almost certain he will play after wengers comments, he didnt play last gw so will need a match before EL semis

    2. Hawk Eye
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Reposting:
      Mane or Ozil on a FH?

    3. Wolfman180
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A) KDB & K Long
      or
      B) Sane & Bellerin (or another Arsenal def)

      Already have Jesus and Sterling

      1. Mulla
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        B all day pal

    4. I Have No Idea What I'…
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I’m signing players playing in GW35, but also DGW37 to ensure value for the hits.

      Which would you do?

      A) Austin & Mahrez > Perez & Sterling (-4)
      GW35 - 9 players

      B) Austin, Alexander-Arnold & Mahrez > Perez, Kompany & Silva (-8)
      GW35 - 10 players

      C) Austin, Davies & Mahrez > Perez, Kompany & Sterling (-8)
      GW35 - 10 players

      D) Austin, Alexander-Arnold, Davies & Mahrez > Perez, Kompany, Lascelles & Sterling (-12)
      GW35 - 11 players

    5. Tmel
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Think my FH is sorted bar the defence and keeper - what's the best option:

      1) Pope Milner Baines Tomkins
      2) Pope Moreno Baines PVA
      3) Pope Gomez Bellerin Baines
      4) Pickford Gomez Bellerin PVA

    6. minges
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Any thoughts or suggestions welcome

      Pickford
      Milner PVA Lascelles
      Salah Mane Sterling KDB Zaha
      Jesus Laca

      3.9 Banes Long 3.9

      Had Aub & Dummet but Wenger's comments have swayed me to get Laca instead

      1. tm370
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        But Wenger has spoken about playing people who were rested last time...Laca wasn't rested.

        1. Mulla
          • 13 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          But Laca has only played 160mins in last 8 GWks in the league, needs to keep him sharp

    7. Manani
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Kenedy Salah Willian Sterling Son
      Barnes Auba Kane

      is it stupid to get Jesus this week for Kane (-4), then get Kane back next for another -4? (keep Jesus)

    8. Ten Season Wonder
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Laporte... how many starts from now until 38??

      if any...

      1. VDiesel26
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Rotation risk, avoid

    9. SADIO SANÉ
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      a) Moreno, Zaha, Laca
      OR
      b) Bellerin, Ozil, Wood

    10. doublyG
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Which would you go for:

      A) Mane + Long
      B) Arnautovic + Baines

      1. VDiesel26
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        A

    11. HD7
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      FH team... thoughts?

      Its probably strange but Im wondering between Mane and Shaqiri...?

      Butland
      Baines Klavan Mustafi
      Mane Sterling KDB Salah Zaha
      Laca Jesus(C)

      Bench: Crouch, Kiko, Long

    12. vopemartin
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Rate my ship

      Tips very much appreciate.

      Butland (Haugaard)
      VVD, Baines, Tomkins (Long, Kenny)
      Salah, Manè, Sterling, Silva, Zaha
      Lacazette, Jesus(c) (Pèrez)

    13. Tmel
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      a) Pickford PVA
      b) Pope Baines

    14. Jam0sh
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      How would you complete this free hit team?

      Butland
      Klavan, Baines, ---
      Mane, Sterling, KDB, Salah, Zaha
      Lacazette, Jesus

      subs: Mäenpää, ---, Long, Goldson --- 0.0 itb

      A) PvA and Barnes
      B) Bellerin and 4.5 fodder
      C) Something else what

      1. Ten Season Wonder
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Bellerin

      2. vopemartin
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        B

    15. Nigawan
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      what happen to Aubameyang? Why is everyone having Lacazette ?

      1. Manani
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        talks by wengar implying he may not start

      2. Colonel Shoe 肝池
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        wenger comments have spooked the horses

      3. Nigawan
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        really don't see why when he cant feature in Europa league.. what you guys doing with him? have them both or keep him ?

    16. payasito
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      butland
      vvd baines otamendi
      salah sterling zaha ozil shaqiri
      laca jesus

      3.9 gk, crouch, long, 3.9

      0 ITB.

      Is Mane so essential to downgrade somebody or is Ozil good enough?

    17. Toby Lerone
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Captain KDB or Salah? Toughie

      1. Bragazeti
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Egyptian Messi

      2. Johqvist
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        The one with 30 goals.

    18. FPLord
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Butland (3.9)
      Bellerin Milner Klavan (kiko Long)
      Sterling(c) KDB Ozil Salah Pereyra
      Jesus Laca (Crouch)

      Trailing by 41p...do I have too many differentials?

      1. TLF
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Like the Pereyra & Ozil differentials

      2. STEP rOVERS
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Pereya to Zaha imo

    19. tm370
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      An odd narrative has developed here - there seems to be a widespread assumption that Lacazette will start. I don't agree. These are Wenger's comments:

      “This weekend is preparation for (next) Thursday. I rested some players after the CSKA Moscow (semi-final second leg) match, and they will need a game. It is not so much rest, but preparation.''

      Lacazette played 90 last time out, and Welbeck didn't start. Welbz will surely play this time, leaving one of Aub and Laca. It's not to say that Laca won't start but I'd predict Aub too.

      Sometimes on here an idea seems to take force - like the bizzare removals of Salah last week, purely because alot of people are doing and saying it.

      Personally, I think Ramsey could be the real pick this week. He will start and his form across competitions is superb.

      1. walkman666
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        This is a very point, and one that is needed. We tend to coalesce around a notion, and groupthink kicks in. It’s really quite uncertain what Wenger will do with Aubameyang.

        1. walkman666
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Very GOOD point *

      2. TLF
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        You really have me doubting Lacazette now, makes sense what you are saying. Issue with Ramsey is who to remove for him, I have 2 City, 2 Pool and Zaha !

      3. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        what about the quotes about auba from wenger? you didn't include them

        1. TLF
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Refresh the memory pls Bemba....

        2. tm370
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          But Wenger didn't say that Auba wouldn't start he only created doubt. For me it's pretty certain that Welbeck will start and pretty uncertain whether Laca will or not. 10.2 is a big gamble for someone who might be benched

      4. TLF
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        So what you doing ? Avoiding Arsenal strikers all together or going for Welbeck ?

        1. Pompel
          • 12 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          MAybe go with Wood/Barnes/Perez instead, and punt on Ramsey or Ozil?

        2. tm370
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          I'm going for Ramsey. His form is superb in recent games (including the Europa), and his extra points for goals/clean sheets could be valuable. Also opting for Bellerin and making Welbeck my first sub.

          1. Cok3y5murf
            • 9 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            On Ramsey

            "He has not participated in full training but he’s practicing in non-contact, so he will be available for Sunday."

            Will he start on the bench? If I was certain he'd start, he would be in my team too.

            1. tm370
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 11 Years
              7 years, 10 months ago

              Given the rhetoric about being available and playing those who didn't play last time out I'd say it's more likely than Laca and he is 3.0 less

      5. Netley Lucas
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I think he'll start the attackers he wants playing on Thursday, get them into a rhythm. Sadly Auba can't really help

      6. Colonel Shoe 肝池
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        i havent got a clue about laca,aub
        I tend to agree with you, but ive opted for laca with a decent bench

        ramsey could be a great punt, not sure ive got the balls

      7. walkman666
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Triple reply...sorry. It is worth including the full Wenger comment, particularly about Aubameyang, as that is the basis for the concerns to include him, or not. Paraphrasing here, “I don’t know if he [Aubabmayang] will play...”

        1. tm370
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Again - I don't know if he will play is not the same as saying he won't. With Welbz starting that leaves only one spot. I'm not saying that Laca won't start but that he is a significant doubt and a risk not worth taking.

          1. walkman666
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            I think all 3 will play, and the issue is who starts, and who comes on as a sub. I can see Aubameyang subbing for Welbeck or Lacazette, or starting. Welbeck hasn’t played 90’ too often in EPL.

      8. Cok3y5murf
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2018/04/20/metrics-the-bench-boost-and-free-hit/?hc_page=5#hc_comment_18048682

        I posted the same thing. I think Welbeck is the most nailed among those 3. And he's been in much better form than Laca. Laca just has penalties though.

        1. walkman666
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Welbeck has looked good lately. Agree.

      9. TallestJohn
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Interesting point. I'd guess all three of Auba, Laca and Welbz will get some minutes. All three have played on the left this season although it seems like Laca will play through the middle from now on. I've got a spot for an Arsenal striker, just don't know which is the best option.

        Not sure about Ramsey starting though after he's been limited in training this week.

    20. Cpt Crunch Scott talent
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Great, another decimated gameweek....

    21. Dybala10
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      On FH, PVA or Bellerin?

      1. Netley Lucas
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        PvA here, then got Milner, gulp

    22. Down with this sort of thin…
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Do the price rises/falls sometimes happen earlier than usual?

      Anyone notice this in the past?

      Thanks

      1. TorresMagic™
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Same time nightly.

    23. BobBradleysOpportunity
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      haven't seen anybody with my free hit team, i'm feeling maverick

      1. Mulla
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Show us ?

    24. Deulofail
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Just preparing my Wenger Out sign for the Emirates on Sunday

      1. Netley Lucas
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Wenger Out Now - the extra word 😆

        1. Deulofail
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          "Like.....TODAYYYY"

    25. Royal5
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      People without FH. How big of a hit are you taking?

    26. HD7
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      With the uncertainty around Arsenal forwards I wonder whether to switch Laca and Zaha for Tosun and Ozil/Ramsey? Thoughts...

    27. Mulla
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Suprised they've gone for Butland in Scout picks, Stoke have to come out and attack so could be left exposed at the back against a good Burnley side ?
      Already have Baines but tempted by Pickford, reckon they keep Newcastle out..

    28. carpenio
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Thoughts on Wan Bissaka to Shaqiri or Gundogan for -4?

      A) take the hit?
      B) for who?