Metrics
21 April 2018 885 comments
Ragabolly Ragabolly
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With the curtailed Gameweek 35 now underway, our latest examination of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) metrics will focus on the Free Hit versus the no Free Hit scenario among managers currently ranked in the top 10,000.

As anticipated, the vast majority of Free Hits remaining were activated this week, making the overall usage of the chip jump from 67% to 97.9% in the top 10k. This means that this chip is now the closest to being used-up among the current top 10k.

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The only other chip that saw some significant increase in Gameweek 35 was the second Wildcard, which was activated by 4.78% of managers in the top 10k.

But in today’s analysis, we will concentrate purely on the Free Hit scenario.

With one-third of active managers playing that chip prior to the deadline, this group will doubtless appreciate a view of how they fare compared with their peers.

Similarly, the remaining managers without the chip active can also get a view of how their squads measure up.

As we revealed earlier in the week, the non-Free Hit managers had an average of 7.4 players with a Gameweek 35 fixture before the deadline.

But analysis of the latest data reveals that, as expected, these managers used their free transfers and spent points on further trades to reinforce their squads.

This group in the top 10k took an average of -3.63 points in deductions, which is the biggest “hits” figure I’ve recorded this season.

It meant that the non-Free Hit managers in the top 10k were able to field an average of 9.93 players for Gameweek 35, as detailed below.

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Around 61.5% of them could even field a squad of 10 players or more, which might suffice in keeping pace with Free Hit managers.

However, not surprisingly, the squads with the Free Hit in play avoided all points deductions and averaged 14.7 players active for Gameweek 35.

Now let’s look closer and assess the most popular selections in both the Free Hit and non-Free Hit squads.

Below is a squad made up of the most owned players selected by Free Hit managers in the top 10k.

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Meanwhile, the squad for non-Free Hit managers looks somewhat different:

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We see Mohamed Salah (99.06%) is the dominant figure in Free Hit ranks, along with Gabriel Jesus (98.09%) and Raheem Sterling (94.18%).

Indeed, Salah has a similarly high ownership (92.36%) in non-Free Hit teams.

However, with a blank in Gameweek 34, many non-Free Hit managers were forced to spend points to acquire Jesus and Sterling.

As a result, they are found in just 49.08% and 58.2% of squads respectively.

Their output tomorrow against Swansea City already looks to be crucial in the shake-up among the top 10k managers.

There are other disparities that create a cast of players key to the success of the Free Hit.

Players like Leighton Baines, Hector Bellerin, Kevin De Bruyne and Alexandre Lacazette are far from common factors in non-Free Hit squads.

To examine this further, here is a table of the most owned players in Free Hit teams versus their ownership in the non-Free Hit squads among the top 10k.

PlayerFree Hit Ownershipnon Free Hit OwnershipTotal Top 10k Ownership
Mohamed Salah99.06%92.36%94.43%
Gabriel Jesus98.09%49.08%64.23%
Raheem Sterling94.18%58.20%69.32%
Wilfried Zaha82.24%17.53%37.53%
Kevin Long68.78%15.92%32.26%
Alexandre Lacazette63.93%2.11%21.22%
Leighton Baines62.31%3.20%21.47%
Sadio Mané59.75%9.13%24.78%
Jack Butland43.09%1.11%14.09%
Héctor Bellerín33.19%2.84%12.22%
Virgil van Dijk31.87%14.68%19.99%
Kevin De Bruyne30.54%7.61%14.70%
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang28.63%51.47%44.41%
Jordan Pickford27.79%6.67%13.20%
Ayoze Pérez24.17%8.39%13.27%
Leroy Sané23.71%16.01%18.39%
Shkodran Mustafi22.29%17.56%19.02%
Xherdan Shaqiri22.00%12.61%15.51%
Luka Milivojevic21.51%41.66%35.43%
James Tomkins19.93%7.63%11.43%
Ragnar Klavan19.61%0.94%6.71%
Matthew Lowton17.63%26.78%23.95%
Wayne Hennessey17.63%12.78%14.28%
Mesut Özil17.18%1.65%6.45%
James Milner16.98%0.23%5.41%
Patrick van Aanholt16.37%2.04%6.47%
Nacho Monreal16.05%9.16%11.29%
Roberto Firmino16.05%43.19%34.80%
Nicolás Otamendi14.36%36.56%29.70%
Marko Arnautovic13.46%15.73%15.03%
Peter Crouch13.33%0.83%4.69%
Nick Pope13.07%24.24%20.79%
Cenk Tosun12.62%4.24%6.83%
Ashley Barnes12.26%22.81%19.55%
David Silva9.90%14.99%13.42%

 

The table highlights that the majority of the selected players in the Free Hit squads show low ownership in non-Free Hit line-ups.

Already today, many non-Free Hit managers will have been hugely relieved at Wilfried Zaha’s blank at Watford given the big disparity in ownership. Some 82.4% of the top 10k Free Hit managers fielded the Eagles winger, compared with 17.5% of the rest of the top 10k.

There are, of course, more opportunities to come with tomorrow’s fixtures.

However, there are also some players who could prove key figures for those without the Free Hit active.

Of these, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (51.47% compared to 28.63%), Nicolás Otamendi (36.56% compared to 14.36%) and David Silva (14.99% compared to 9.9%) look poised to make the most impact.

These major differentials will surely decide how Gameweek 35 affects the current top 10k rankings.

It will be fascinating to carry out a post-mortem on the results and compare these to the impact of the Free Hit chip back in Gameweek 31, when we saw the previous set of reduced fixtures.

Finally, I’ll leave you with a look at each of the Premier league sides most represented in both groups of managers.

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As we can see, every Free Hit manager in the top 10k opted for three Manchester City players. Meanwhile, the non-Free Hit manager has an average of 2.1.

It’s a similar story for Liverpool, with an average of 2.8 players in Free Hit active squads, compared with 2.1 in the rest.

While major Liverpool assets blanked today, it’s essentially Man City and Arsenal (2.1 vs 1.0 players) options that seem likely to decide the gap between the Free Hit and the non-Free Hit managers.

885 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. PlayPercentage
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    What's up with Kane?
    Since he came back from injury, he looks like a knackered cart horse.
    Having second thoughts about him for the DGW37.

    1. denial
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Spurs have been quite poor since he's come back too. God knows what's going on.

      1. The Tinkerman
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Saving his best for an all our assault on the golden boot

        1. The Tinkerman
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Out*

      2. PlayPercentage
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Lucas Moura seems like a good player. Shame he only got 10 mins.
        Maybe he will shake up the established Kane-Alli-Eriksen-Son line up.

  2. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Anyone going Giroud over Kane? 😆

    1. n-doggg
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Negative

    2. Amsterhammer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      No one is doing that.

  3. manu4life99
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Start 1:

    A) Schindler (EVE)
    B) Otamendi (whm)

    1. Les Bleus
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B

    2. kennethrhcp
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B

  4. The Tinkerman
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    A) Keep Alonso for double, play Dunk this GW

    B) Alonso > Vert now, Tark, Dunk out next week (-4)

    1. PlayPercentage
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      His replacement Emerson had a good game in midweek.
      Maybe Alonso will not play both DGW fixtures?

  5. Scapegoat Salah
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Points forecast for this lot in total?

    Lowton
    K.Long
    Cresswell
    Dummett
    Sane
    Sterling (C)
    Jesus

    1. Les Bleus
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      1
      1
      1
      1
      13
      4
      8

    2. drughi
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      2
      2
      1
      1
      5
      18
      12

    3. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      7
      5
      2
      6
      2
      40
      11

      1. Scapegoat Salah
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        That's more like it 😉

    4. Bob McMayday
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      2
      2
      2
      2
      6
      22
      7

      1. Scapegoat Salah
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Hoping for 50 in total

        1. Bob McMayday
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Sorry I mean
          9
          2
          2
          2
          6
          22
          7

    5. Cpt Crunch Scott talent
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      12
      20
      1
      2
      24
      4
      48

      1. Scapegoat Salah
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I really like you

      2. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        So 11 goals for Jesus and a yellow card 😆

        1. Scapegoat Salah
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Or a bonus 2 after KDB has set them all up and claimed 3 bonus

  6. chaser123
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Stupid not to sell Alonso?

    1. Bob McMayday
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Nope

  7. kennethrhcp
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    madness going with no man utd on WC?

    1. Les Bleus
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I’d get at least one defender in

      1. kennethrhcp
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I was going smalling but can afford Vert over him who I think will def play both. really unsure what Jose will do at CB over dgw

    2. Fantastisk
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      No

    3. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Plenty of options elsewhere, it's up to you.

      1. kennethrhcp
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        ya, the weird thing is there are decent options from lesser teams. gambling with goal threat kinda defenders

    4. Norman Conquest
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      i would only consider de gea right now

      1. kennethrhcp
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        cheers norman

  8. CRO KLOPP
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    1 ft 0.2 itb

    DDG
    Vertongen Lowton Long
    Salah Mahrez Son Willian
    Kane Vardy Barnes
    Ryan Lingard Morgan Alonso

    Save ft? Play Barnes or Lingard?
    Cheers

  9. SW6
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    C'monnnn Forest!

  10. KJT123
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Only way i can get Jesus in this week is for a -8. Worth it?

    1. Les Bleus
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      We’ll find out when he plays tomorrow.

    2. Bob McMayday
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Not for me. I can do it for -4 but would lose players that I can happily play for the rest of the season so not worth that. Could do it for - 8 but would rather wait a week while he has WHU away and bank a transfer to do it for the DGW

  11. pundit of punts
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    WC is proving to be difficult.

    For starters, Sane or Ederson for the 3rd City spot?

    1. n-doggg
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      If you are going City. You gotta go attack

    2. kennethrhcp
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Sane

    3. FPL Scoop
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      sane

  12. n-doggg
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Half cut and made my transfer for next week already for -4. Rash.

    1. Rash
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      You rang

      1. n-doggg
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Lukaku and Alonso to Kane and vertonghen a mistake?

        1. Rash
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Should pay off. Not convinced by spurs defence though

        2. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          That looks fine

        3. Amsterhammer
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          I can see Lukaku doing well against a rotated Arsenal def. Kane looked poor today. So nog sure the -4 will hold up.

          I like Alonso to Vert though.

          1. Amsterhammer
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            Not*

  13. Ode
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Have to go without Salah next week against Stoke at home. Going to be a long 90 minutes behind the sofa

    1. kennethrhcp
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      youre not alone

      1. Fantastisk
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        I am here with you.

    2. FPL Scoop
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      ive been without since 33

    3. pjomara
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      It's a must win game for Liverpool. If they draw then Chelsea can go level on points by winning game at hand and their game v Liverpool

      1. Ode
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Thanks for making it worse lol

    4. The Overthinker
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      We are with you

    5. DantheManinaPan
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Why?

  14. kennethrhcp
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    for dgw 37

    A: Mawson (bou/SOU) & Eriksen
    B: Smalling (bri/whu) & Alli

    1. kinghenry14
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      b imo

    2. FPL Scoop
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      A

    3. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      B

    4. kennethrhcp
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      ye think smalling to play both?

  15. FPL Scoop
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    In need of some big points from sterling, jesus and dilva. lowton and barnes delivering would be nice too.

    currently 2 (-8) from 2 out of 7 players

  16. rdamjan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    WC activated finaly! Main targets? Probably Spurs without FA and City?

    1. kennethrhcp
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Spurs
      City attack
      oddly, Swansea aswell for value

    2. FPL Scoop
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      ^ agree, with the swans too. I'd go double swans defence (fab and someone) and jayew tbh

    3. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Basically what they said ^

      I used WC for 35 and Lacazette to Kane leaves me with

      Fabianski Dubravka
      Vertongen Otamendi Lowton Naughton Dummett
      Salah Sterling Eriksen Zaha Mili
      Kane Jesus JAyew

      BB in 37

  17. Forza Papac
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Auba > Kane?

    1. kennethrhcp
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I would

  18. FPL Scoop
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Midfield is currently:
    Sterling Son Silva Mahrez Zaha

    what changes to make for BB37? Son nailed to start? Mahrez still worth it? Keep Zaha?

    1. Lecky Legs FC
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      I'm getting rid of Mahrez for Dilva or Son

    2. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Arnie might be worth it over Zaha. Willian if we know he'll start both games but I don't know if we will.

  19. kinghenry14
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    who would you say is nr 1 priority to sell? 1FT 0.4ITB

    ddg ryan
    alonso mustafi christensen lowton morgan
    salah mahrez willian groß cook
    kane kaku murray

    A) alonso
    B) mahrez
    C) groß/murray

    cheers

    1. FPL Scoop
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      C is most priority imo. get jayew (either this week or next) or barnes if u dont care about dgw

  20. diesel001
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Defending champion Selby out of the Snooker World Championship.

    1. Collie01
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Big surprise.

      Helps Ronnie's chances.

      1. diesel001
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Ronnie in trouble though after his first session

        1. Collie01
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 10 months ago

          Just saw that, interesting. Maguire is a tough first round opponent.

          1. BobBradleysOpportunity
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            7 years, 10 months ago

            if he can get through this match, he's a big favourite, selby seems to be one of the few players who can beat him in a big final

  21. Chucky
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Vardy Auba and Jesus going to cover Kane in DGW 37?

    1. Fantastisk
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Looks like decent spurs coverage.

    2. diesel001
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      LOL. No. Kane going to get 7 goals in GW37 and 4 goals in GW38 against his favourite end of season team.....

    3. n-doggg
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      No

    4. kennethrhcp
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      captain choice will be massive. I know kane looked poor today but he'll have massive capt % in 37

    5. Amsterhammer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Easily.

  22. pjomara
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Championship very exciting this season, 2 games to go and 17 teams still in the hunt for promotion or relegation.

  23. Legomané
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Consolidated last weeks 'late entry' into the top 100k, up to 64k and gone 30 odd pts clear at the top of my ML...he's got 3 chips in hand though 😯

  24. Je suis le chat
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Happy enough with no Pool players for the next 2 gws. Lukaku to Jesus might be tempting for dgw 37.

  25. VDiesel26
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Need to ship out alonso before price drops tonight.

    Best / most nailed defender with DGW for rest of season?

    1. chilli con kone
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Vert probably. No city or united defenders nailed other than Valencia

      1. Team Cruel
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Val went out with a knock today.

  26. F4L
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Cardiff are so bad 😥

  27. chilli con kone
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 10 months ago

    Anybody holding Alonso?

    Tempting to ship for vert

    1. MTPockets
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Yeah holding to 37. Other priorities.

    2. Mikey44
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      https://i.imgur.com/zPoAxjB.jpg

      Is Eriksen in for Mane the obvious FT?

      1. n-doggg
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        Yeah probably. Not sure I like Kompany that much though

    3. mrodgers91
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Leading my league 27 points clear of 2nd who has just played WC this week already having used FH in 31. I am wildcarding next week so should i stick to my own team and trust myself or be a complete coward and just copy their wildcard team so they cant outscore me, barring any captain choices

    4. Zilla
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 10 months ago

      Noo I don't want Warnock in the PL

      1. n-doggg
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 10 months ago

        He’s a cantankerous toad