Spot the Differential
13 May 2018 3273 comments
James H James H
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Sunday offers us a final opportunity to identify a differential to inspire a final push up the rankings.

In recent seasons we’ve witnessed a goal rush in Gameweek 38, so we’ve opted for two French threats from Manchester United and Arsenal, while Liverpool’s cut-price full-back also finds a place in our selection as a result of his attacking prowess.

Alexandre Lacazette

While team-mate Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is the most transferred in-forward this week, it shouldn’t be forgotten that Alexandre Lacazette has also been in sensational form for Arsenal.

The French striker has produced five goals and one assist over his last five appearances and, after being rested for the 3-1 defeat to Leicester City, he should return for today’s trip to Huddersfield Town.

Lacazette is likely to start as the central striker for the Gunners, with Aubameyang playing from an inside-left position.

Interestingly, Lacazette has the edge in terms of minutes per shot between the two, averaging an attempt every 31.7 minutes, slightly superior to Aubameyang’s 33.

Although Arsenal have failed to win a single point on their travels in 2018, the fact the Terriers meeting is Arsene Wenger’s final match in charge of the club should provide strong motivation to end the season on a high.

The party atmosphere at the John Smith’s Stadium in light of Huddersfield securing Premier League safety could also be a factor.

The Gunners registered an emphatic 5-0 win when the two teams met earlier in the season, with Lacazette on the scoresheet.

Priced at 10.3 in FPL and ending the campaign full of confidence, the striker looks to have the platform to produce a third consecutive double-figure haul.

Owned by only 7.4% of managers, Lacazette is a player who has the potential to be a game-changer, particularly if he is also considered for the captaincy.

Anthony Martial

With Jose Mourinho revealing that Anthony Martial will be in his line-up today, the midfielder enters the equation as a final day gamble.

The France international has had limited first-team opportunities since the arrival of Alexis Sanchez in January, but the Hornets match-up looks crucial if he is to prove he has a long-term future at Old Trafford.

Martial has produced nine goals and six assists this season, while his average of a goal every 175.7 minutes is only bettered by Marouane Fellaini (153 minutes) among United players.

Watford travel north with just a single point gained from six away matches since Javi Gracia took charge, and having conceded ten goals in away defeats to top-six sides Arsenal, Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur.

Available at 7.8 in Fantasy Premier League (FPL), Martial may be an option for managers who can afford to upgrade underperforming players such as Chelsea’s Willian.

With an ownership of 2.5%, the Frenchman represents a major differential for Gameweek 38.

An impressive record against Watford adds to his appeal. He has produced a goal and an assist in the corresponding fixture last season, which Mourinho’s side won 2-0, while he also netted in a 4-2 victory in the reverse fixture in November.

With a point to prove and an FA Cup final spot to play for, Martial fits the profile of a potentially explosive differential.

Trent Alexander-Arnold

While an extended run in Europe has blunted Liverpool’s attack of late, their defensive record at Anfield remains resolute.

Jurgen Klopp’s side have recorded four successive home clean sheets ahead of a visit from a Brighton side that rank joint-bottom for goals scored (ten) on the road.

With that in mind, we’re turning to Trent Alexander Arnold (5% ownership) as our final selection.

Having started only four of the last seven Gameweeks, the youngster’s acquisition admittedly comes with a slight caveat.

But with the Champions League final against Real Madrid taking place 13 days later, we reckon that the Reds’ manager will field a full-strength line-up to ensure a top-four finish.

This should see Alexander-Arnold return to the back-four, having been stationed in central midfield against Stoke City and Chelsea.

Over his last four at Anfield, the right-back is second only to Mohamed Salah when it comes to key passes (seven to eight) for the Reds.

Compared with other defenders over their respective last four home matches, he is placed fourth for both key passes and crosses (28).

Handily, his FPL output has profited from those underlying numbers – Alexander-Arnold has served up 29 points in his last four home fixtures, bagging maximum bonus on two occasions.

Second only to Patrick van Aanholt for transfers-in among defenders, a cost of only 4.4 looks ideal for those seeking to free up cash while recruiting a player with the potential for double figures.

  1. FPL_Hazards
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Guys dont forget Jose is the ultimate troll.

    Remember Jones etc

    Anyone got a link to his actual quote re Smalling?

    1. FPL Pillars
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Smalling will be rested. 100%

      1. RamaJama
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Chances of A cameo?

    2. Desperately Seeking Dusan
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      He listed the players who would start. Blind and Bailly mentioned.

    3. Hairy Potter
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I wouldn’t be surprised if he started or if some of those that Jose said will play are actually on the subs bench. Hope I’m wrong.

  2. OldBenKenobi
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Bauer & Willian > TAA & Arnautovic-8?

    1. Desperately Seeking Dusan
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Are you chasing, defending or indifferent?

      1. OldBenKenobi
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Defending my league by 19 points and chasing in 2 others by 6 points.

        I’m torn 😆

  3. BrockLanders
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    No Pogba???

  4. Ajax Hamsterdam
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Any leaked line ups yet ? :0

  5. rjcv177
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Morning guys, trying to "clean face" this gw.
    Pick combo:

    A) Jesus
    B) Firmino (-4)

    1) Gudmundson
    2) J. Ayew

    1. IAWC ( It's a Wonderfu…
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A1

      1. rjcv177
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        thankx. no easy switch from 1 or 2 to upgrade, right?

    2. Big Sum
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A2

      1. rjcv177
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        thkx. BUT...if Sterling+Jesus and no pool would change your mind?

    3. Blue Bombers CFC
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A1

      1. rjcv177
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        thkx. BUT...if Sterling+Jesus and no pool would change your mind?

    4. rjcv177
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Well Jesus it is.
      The other two are a problem...that i have to bench one

  6. IAWC ( It's a Wonderfu…
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Help again really torn
    A) Ramsey + henno
    B) vvd + Romero

    And y

    1. Big Sum
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      B

      1. IAWC ( It's a Wonderfu…
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Thnks

    2. doublyG
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Is Ramsey nailed?

    3. HamezMace
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      B

    4. rjcv177
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      B, sure to start

      1. IAWC ( It's a Wonderfu…
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        thnks would love a vvd goal alas

  7. The Yorkshire Pirlo
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    VVD or Robo?!!

    Zaha or Arnie?!!

  8. Aladdin Sané
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    1) Jesus to Auba - Y or N?
    2) Morgan to Milner, Blind or PvA?

    1. doublyG
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      1) Dont think so. Definitely not for a hit
      2) I'd probably go Milner if he is a definite starter

  9. supersham
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Whats all this about Smalling?

    1. Lilac Breasted Roller
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Mourinho said it's likely he'll be rested because he started the last x games

  10. Collie01
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    What I wouldn't do to find out whether Son and Willian start.

    1. FPL_Hazards
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Yup 2 terrible picks for last 8 GWs

    2. Ligdon
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Son yes willie no

  11. Crystal Ball
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Mata or Rashford?

    1. Big Sum
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Rashford

    2. Fantasy Gold
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Mata

    3. Athletic Nasherbo
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Mata

    4. nevins84
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Mulling over same here.. Leaning towards Rash..

  12. tricky80
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Think a defensive differential, even against Brighton playing away, is a massive risk on final day. Lots of attacking returns normally.

    There's been seething like six hattricks on final day in last six years.

  13. HamezMace
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Morning all,

    Best of luck to everyone on the final day, and thanks for all the good advice over the season.

    Last question,

    For free,

    A. Vardy to Rashford
    B. Jesus to Rashford
    C. Eriksen to Martial
    D. Dunk to TAA

    Team is,

    Ddg Fabianski
    Ogbonna Davies dunk Lascelles Lowton
    Eriksen Arnautovic Sterling Sane Milivojevic
    Jesus Vardy Aubameyang

    1. Collie01
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Dunk to TAA for me.

    2. The_Colonel
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Why consider subbing out Jesus?
      A for me

      1. HamezMace
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Rotation risk.
        Speculation that Sterling plays up top today.

    3. Fantasy Gold
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      D

    4. Big Sum
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      D

    5. HamezMace
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Thanks all.

  14. The Left Duke #3
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    KDB & Willian -->> Salah (c) & Zaha (-4) done and dusted

    Should i take another hit to bring a Pool DF for Smalling or Morgan?

    DDG Ryan
    Alonso Smalling Morgan Lowton Long
    Salah Zaha Son Sane Gudmundsson
    Kane Vardy Ayew

  15. The_Colonel
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    I know both are doubts but who do you think is more likely to start?

    A) Lingard
    B) Willian

    1. Big Sum
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      B

    2. SheBangsTheDrums
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      B

    3. Les Bleus
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Willian. Lingard won’t start

  16. The Chief
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Risk playing Dilva or take a -4 to Zaha

    1. lespaul
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Dilva

    2. Balls of Steel
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      zaha

  17. Bilbao Baggins
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    If you are chasing a mini league but are still in with are chance are you:

    1) Captaining Salah because you still think he'll be your highest scoring player?

    2) Captaining Kane and praying he can outscore Salah?

    3) Other

    I'm interested because I'm currently torn between 1 and 2.

    1. fpl-newbie
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      1

    2. SheBangsTheDrums
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      1

      1. SheBangsTheDrums
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Also partly because I'm expecting rival to Capt Kane

        1. Desperately Seeking Dusan
          • 14 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Assume you’re chasing then?

          1. SheBangsTheDrums
            • 10 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            Yep only by 4 points though as I know he's taken a hit!

            1. Desperately Seeking Dusan
              • 14 Years
              7 years, 7 months ago

              Yeah I would go Salah for sure in your position then.

    3. Desperately Seeking Dusan
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      3. Have Kane and Salah, defending a 19 pt lead vs three others who have Kane but not Salah. So thinking of blocking with Kane since they can only get Salah with a hit. But fearful of no Salah.

      1. shotgunnufc - MANIAC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        keep and eye on their transfers, if they haven’t taken a hit before the deadline, kane captain obvious choice

        1. Desperately Seeking Dusan
          • 14 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          If only I could see transfers they have made!

        2. Desperately Seeking Dusan
          • 14 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Is their some kind of top secret site I can see the transfers they have made this week?!

          1. Desperately Seeking Dusan
            • 14 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            *there

            1. Bilbao Baggins
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              7 years, 7 months ago

              I think if you go into their team and look at "gameweek transfers" it tells you there.

    4. Lilac Breasted Roller
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      1

    5. shotgunnufc - MANIAC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      depends entirely on the gap and how you fancy your differentials chances. less than 15 option 1, greater than 15 option 2 imo

    6. Bilbao Baggins
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Interesting cheers guys. Shotgunnufc that's a good point.

      10 points off second. But 27 points off first. So I guess captain Salah to go for second. Or put all my eggs in Kane's tired basket and hope for a miracle.

      1. Bilbao Baggins
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        I also think they will all captain Salah.

      2. lespaul
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Kane for a 27

    7. lespaul
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Depends on gap

  18. Shultan
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Zaha or arnie?

    1. Ligdon
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      I went arnie

    2. Desperately Seeking Dusan
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Arnie.

      Don’t understand the huge Palace love. WBA aren’t pushovers now and Moore has instilled some pride.

      1. Teddy Brewski
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Just need to look at Zaha’s last two home game returns to know why mate

        1. Desperately Seeking Dusan
          • 14 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Vs Leicester and Brighton... Brighton I’ll give you but he blanked in an “easy” game vs Watford. I had him. Vs Leicester recently, I’d fancy my chances of double digit returns...

          1. Teddy Brewski
            • 11 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            Did you see him v Watford? Incredibly unlucky to blank. WBA now confirmed relegated so could easily fold

  19. Ajax Hamsterdam
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    Pogba owners keeping or selling ? Don't know what to do..

    1. fpl-newbie
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Same :s
      Pogba -> Zaha for -4?

    2. Ligdon
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Pogba to Arnie for me

  20. SheBangsTheDrums
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 7 months ago

    A) Double Burnley defence

    C) Play Lejune

    1. Big Sum
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A

    2. Brosstan
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      A

    3. Lionel Ronaldo
        7 years, 7 months ago

        No B? lol. A for sure.

    4. Shack
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Looking at Willian and Barnes to Rashford and McArther/RLC for a hit - any better cheap punts that I have not considered? Cheers!

    5. AdamJ91
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 7 months ago

      Is there much point in taking De Gea out especially for a -4?

      1. fpl-newbie
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        If your sub plays no for sure

      2. MTPockets
          7 years, 7 months ago

          no, unless to fund something else.

        • Lilac Breasted Roller
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Who's your bench GK?

          1. AdamJ91
            • 9 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            Bench fodder

        • Netley Lucas
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Not if you have a starting back-up, even if you haven't a 4 is probably worth banking

        • grumpyman
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Only if you need the funds imo.

          1. AdamJ91
            • 9 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            Could help me raise funds for Barnes > Firmino/Auba

        • rrcmc
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 16 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          same question i have: its a -2pt in effect unless MUN concede a hat full. but who two:

          Adrian; what about Hart
          Pope; what about Heaton
          Bravo; perceived wisdom that Ederson will come in...
          Romero; Mour could be lying???

        • Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
          • 15 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          What happened DDG?

          1. Bilbao Baggins
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            Mouriniho said he would start Romero in an interview I believe. Also starting bailey and martial and rashford.

        • Desperately Seeking Dusan
          • 14 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          I’ve been considering this to fund a better Lingard upgrade but as somebody else said, if your other keeper is playing I don’t think it’s worth it.

      3. Hansel
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        A) DDG + Mahrez -> Adrian + Salah (-4)

        B) DDG + Mahrez + Lingard -> Karius/Romero + Salah + Gudmundsson (-8)

      4. BrutalLogiC
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        DDG out for who? My backup is non playing Elliot.

        1. Lilac Breasted Roller
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Karius or Romero

          if no CS, you'll likely lose points
          If CS, you're only making 2 pts

        2. Teddy Brewski
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Romero

        3. Big Sum
          • 15 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          karius

        4. Dirty Leeds
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Lloris?

      5. Dirty Leeds
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Have De Gea and Ryan as backup. Is Lloris a good shout for a CS? Cheers lads

        1. ENZO SZN™
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Vardy loves scoring against big teams

        2. Netley Lucas
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Spuds been lucky to clean of late, start Ryan

        3. Patch
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Karius you dirty leeds

      6. Sponge-worthy
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Liverpool lineup?

        Deadline in 2 hrs, 50 mins?

      7. Messsiaah
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Chasing.
        A. Cap Salah
        B. Take a hit. Do Vardy > Laca. And cap Laca

      8. Fpl Richie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Why are people looking for Vertonghen replacements?

        Have I missed something?

        1. Athletic Nasherbo
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Rumours Foyth playing instead

          1. Fpl Richie
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            Where's this from? Anyone else keeping/selling?

            1. Athletic Nasherbo
              • 8 Years
              7 years, 7 months ago

              It was a quote from Poch then a Spurs forum can’t remember link (5/6 pages back) believe Vert rested.

              I have Vert and this makes no sense so I’m not concerned

        2. OldBenKenobi
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Don’t own him but also don’t understand it either. Maybe just worried about Vardys record against top teams?

          1. Fpl Richie
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            7 years, 7 months ago

            It's not worth a hit I assume. I'll risk it.

        3. EL_FENOMENO
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          Spurs don't have a fit right back, don't see how Vertonghen will miss out.

      9. Flying Assassins
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        Zaha in for who?

        A) Sane
        B) Son
        C) Mahrez

        1. fpl-newbie
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          C

      10. Afghanistanislas
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 7 months ago

        I want Zaha but can only get him by losing Alli...would you do it?

        1. fpl-newbie
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 7 months ago

          No