Spot the Differential
10 August 2018 3777 comments
DavidMunday815 DavidMunday815
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The Gameweek 1 deadline is now upon us which gives us a chance to have a look at some differential options for the start of the season.

We’ve pulled out three players currently under five percent ownership who represent viable alternatives to some of the more popular assets out there.

Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m)

Ownership: 4.3 percent

There is reason to believe that Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m) could match Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.0m) in FPL this season, which could help Fantasy managers looking to save money.

The two strikers have scored the same number of goals in Arsenal’s public pre-season friendlies, with six apiece and Aubamayang just one ahead on assists (three to two).

As Lacazette’s involvements have come from slightly less time on the pitch, his minutes-per-goal involvement is remarkably similar to his Gabonese colleague. The Frenchman has averaged one every 31.37 minutes, with Aubameyang involving himself in a public pre-season strike every 32.22 minutes.

As for his position within the team, Lacazette looks likely to start as the central striker, with Aubameyang operating from an inside-left position, as has been the case this summer.

It must also be noted that Lacazette actually finished the end of last season in sensational form, as he began to develop a great relationship with Aubameyang. In his final six appearances of 2017/18 he found the net five times and produced one assist. By comparison, Aubameyang also scored the same number of goals in his last six outings of the campaign, edging the Frenchman only on assists (three to one).

In the last six Gameweeks, Lacazette also bettered Aubameyang for minutes-per-goal (90.3 to 103.6) and was close behind when it came to minutes-per-shot too (33.9 to 30.1).

Having one of the two Arsenal attackers looks to be a smart move for the beginning of the season. Their opening fixture against Manchester City has the makings of a high-scoring game and Gameweek 2 pits the Gunners against a new-look Chelsea side that look defensively vulnerable in the Community Shield final.

After those two fixtures, there are home meeting with West Ham, Everton, Watford and Leicester mixed with trips to Cardiff, Newcastle, Fulham and Crystal Palace before Liverpool come to the Emirates in Gameweek 11. That is certainly a run of matches where there are goals on offer.

In both the climax of last term and in friendlies this summer, Lacazette has demonstrated the ability to match his more esteemed colleague. This could prove hugely important for Fantasy managers as it gives them the potential to save £1.5m to use elsewhere in their squad if they were to opt for Lacazette over Aubameyang, while still investing in an attack with potential for goals.

ANDROS TOWNSEND (£6.0m)

Ownership: 2.6 percent

Andros Townsend (£6.0m) could prove to be a steady supplier of assists for Crystal Palace this season and offer a differential route into their attack, with just 2.6 percent ownership. The Englishman has impressed both in the back-end of last term and during pre-season, so considering the strength of the Eagles’ fixtures, there’s every reason to believe he is worth investing in.

In the final 10 Gameweeks of 2017/18, no midfielder in the league created more big chances than Townsend’s five. Furthermore, no midfielder from a club outside the top six managed more passes received in the final third between Gameweek 29 and 38, while only one (Riyad Mahrez) registered more touches in that area of the pitch. In that time-frame he laid on three assists, but more ruthless finishing from colleague Wilfried Zaha (£7.0m) at the start of this campaign could help improve on that.

In fact, that has largely been the case in pre-season with no Palace player involved in more goals than Townsend. He provided six assists during the summer months, which is actually more than any other Premier League player managed to accrue during their respective off-seasons.

The Eagles also have the fixtures to get the best out of Townsend. No team ranks higher for attack than them on our Season Ticker in the first six Gameweeks of 2018/19, with trips to Fulham, Watford and Huddersfield alongside home meetings with Liverpool, Southampton and Newcastle.

RYAN FRASER (£5.5m)

Ownership: 1.1 percent

Bournemouth midfielder Ryan Fraser (£5.5m) could prove a shrewd investment at the start of the season as an alternative route into the Cherries’ attack.

Eddie Howe’s men have some appealing fixtures in the early part of the season which has led to 7.2 percent of managers looking to Josh King (£6.5m) for their forward lines. They host newly-promoted Cardiff on the opening day of the season before Everton and Leicester come to the Vitality Stadium. Trips to West Ham, Chelsea and Burnley are a little tougher but could still offer goals for this particularly attacking side.

Fraser can provde a cheaper alternative to King while still being central to the Bournemouth attacking output.

In the last six Gameweeks of 2017/18, only four midfielders created more chances than Fraser. Across the course of the season, he was Bournemouth’s most creative player, with 38 key passes played, at a rate of 1.6 per game. He also topped the Cherries’ charts for touches in the final third (23.5m), passes received there (14.7), successful crosses (0.7) and successful passes in the attacking third (10.5).

There is also the potential for finding the net to go alongside his assist credentials. No Bournemouth player had a higher goal conversion rate. He scored 16.9 percent of the 30 opportunities that fell his way, with King behind him on 15.7 and Wilson on 15.1.

Fraser’s strength does largely lie in his ability to create goals, though. In pre-season he was the provider of four assists, adding one of his own strikes to take his goal involvement tally of five – the same as King.

The form of the Norwegian striker also heightens Fraser’s appeal. He found the net four times over the summer and looks set for a good spell now that the Premier League is back. If he does take his chances at the beginning of the campaign, there’s a good chance he’ll be helping Fraser register assist points.

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3,777 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. FPL ZB
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Dendoncker, Anguissa or Stephens?

    Leaning towards the Fulham man, doesn't have many career bookings, should be solid 2 points

    1. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Which one is the Fulham man? 🙂

      1. FPL ZB
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        Anguissa, Dendoncker likely to be reverse OOP but does have more goals/assists than Anguissa

    2. Bragazeti
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Lerma is your guy

      1. kinghenry14
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        1 assist and 16YCs in 26 games last season, too much bookings

  2. FPL Footy Show Pod
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    2nd striker - 7.0 to spend (Have King)
    First to 3 is in my team - locked - and won’t be touched

    A) Zaha
    B) Arnie
    C) Tosun
    D) Go 3-5-2

    1. GAMBIT
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      B

    2. Firmino
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Zaha

    3. Kinder Mbueno
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Mitrovic +0.5?

    4. John Colby (C)
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      What about Rashford?

    5. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      A or B. B is the best player

    6. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Arnie

    7. Desange
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      I had Arnie for ages but just gone down to king for the extra 0.5

    8. FPL Footy Show Pod
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Arnie is in. Thanks chaps

  3. Kinder Mbueno
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Got cash. Is PvA really a better punt than Tomkins? I wanted him in my team but felt 5.5 was steep..

    1. Kellz86
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Just go Schlupp who has played pre-season in midfield for 4.5

  4. FPL_DON
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    best 4.5 MID? Currently on Gunnarsson

    1. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      May move to him from Stephens.

      1. FPL_DON
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        the long throws swung it for me

    2. Naboo
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Currently on Huson-Odoi for big risk. Was on Gunnarsson and think he's most nailed long term

    3. HAMMERTIME107
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Dendoncker or Lerma both £4.5 mil

    4. Desange
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Will he start?

  5. Tree House
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Is Adam Smith nailed on for consistent starts for Bournemouth? If so I think better option than Daniels?

    1. Shatner's Bassoon
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      They seem to flip between him and Francis at RB but I think Smith is the preferred choice

  6. DRIZ ✅
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Who is going with both Salah and Mane ??

    1. FPL ZB
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      yup

    2. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Me

    3. Frank Koscielny
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Here

    4. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Yes and Arnie Aguero Auba.

      1. Whats the Huth
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        What’s your team?!!

        1. Weak Become Heros
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          8 years, 17 days ago

          Rui 4
          Mendy Robbo 4 4 4
          Salah Mane Rich Cairney 4.5
          Auba Aguero Arnie

          1. Whats the Huth
            • 11 Years
            8 years, 17 days ago

            This could work

          2. Desange
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 16 Years
            8 years, 17 days ago

            What are your 4.0 defenders and your 4.5 midfielder?

    5. DAZZ
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      O/

      Atleast for the first 2, mane is easily downgradable/upgradable, with eriksen, sane, mahrez, KDB all 0.5 off.

      1. Whats the Huth
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        Eriksen is same price as Mane

    6. Whats the Huth
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Salah and Eriksen for me.

    7. Azathoth
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Salah & Eriksen for me.

    8. Botman and Robben
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      \o/

    9. DRIZ ✅
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      I can just see Liverpool scoring 3/4

    10. Baps Hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Salah, Robbo, Mané

  7. John Colby (C)
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Morning everyone.
    What do you think of Marcus Rashford’s chances of hitting the ground running in the 7.0m striker range. Was looking to bring in Townsend as my fourth midfielder and replace Zaha with Rashford.

    1. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Nah go for fully nailed

  8. Weak Become Heros
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    I am going x2 6m defenders and x3 4m 1 this will not change.

    AWB locked in. I also have Peltier, would it be wise to gamble on Bednarek at the other 4m or go Jazzy Richards as either him or Peltier will play.

    Unlikely to use 3rd sub I guess.

    1. Ninjaa
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      I have Bednarek

    2. Naboo
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      How much of a gamble is Bednarek? I have AWB, Peltier and Hoedt atm in a three way rotation. Could save 0.5 if Bednarek plays and upgrade 4.5 mid to 5.0

  9. Ninjaa
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    B.Silvs or Mhki?

    1. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Bs

      1. BadgersBoys
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        Bilvs

    2. Ninjaa
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Is he nailed for 1st few weeks?

      1. PRENO
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        Judging by Pep's comments about his importance to the team, his contribution & performances pre season and City's WC absentees, then Yes.

  10. BarrowAFC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    This article has made me second guess my team. I thought I was settled and ready to go with this team...

    De Gea (Stekelenburg)
    Tomkins - Mendy - Robertson (W-B, Bednarek)
    Bilva - Salah - Mane - Richarlison (Guendouzi)
    Aguero - King - Zaha

    But now wondering if I should change the following or wait a few GWs??
    De Gea > Patricio
    Richarlison > Fraser
    King > Lacazette

    Should I stick or twist?

    1. BarrowAFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Sorry that last transfer should be Zaha > Lacazette

    2. DAZZ
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      No dont kneejerk in both differentials FFS are offering, use your own head

      1. BarrowAFC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        Yeah you're right, Palace have more favourable fixtures than arsenal to start so will stick with the original plan then asses after a few GW's

  11. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Final Choice...

    Kenedy (5th mid) >> 4.5m and

    A. Shaw >> Bailly
    B. Hamed+Patricio >> Foster+Fab
    C. Stick with Kenedy

    1. Desange
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Newcastle have poor fixtures and their squad is in terrible shape for the season (Newcastle supporter myself) - very pessimistic about their chances especially over first few games - why not downgrade Kennedy for now and of he hits the points he's cheap enough to get in relatively easily

      1. Desange
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        Saying that I don't like any of the a b c options you provided

  12. Tmel
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Help me out finishing this off guys - strong defensive three or three power mids?

    Patricio (Stek)
    Mendy Robbo X (AWB Peltier)
    Salah Mane Richarlison X (X)
    Kun Arnie King

    a) Tomkins, Mahrez & Stephens
    b) Walker, Jota & Cairney

    (Stephens/Cairney would be a bench player)

    1. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      B

    2. Nanoelektronicar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      A)

  13. abcdef3
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Finally settled on this... Thoughts?

    Ederson
    Luiz, Bailly, Arnold
    Salah, Sane, Richarlison, Jorginho
    Aguero, Firmino, Zaha

    Speroni, Tomkins, Peltier, Stephens

  14. GAMBIT
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Ramsey or Mkhi? Are either likely to start?

    1. luke25
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      I had Mkhi but neither are a sure starter, I upgraded Mkhi to Ozil in the end

      1. GAMBIT
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        Can't find an extra 1.5 🙁

  15. NUFCAndrew
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    A: Foster, Fabianski, TAA (0.5 ITB)
    B: Patricio, Hamer, Robertson

    And why?

    1. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      B. Set and forget better plus Robbo is a boss

  16. My heart goes Salalalalah
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Has Kane not entered your thoughts as a really good pick for gw1(c)? Might be a stroke of genius I say. I know the August thing etc but a brace in that fixture can rocket you up the leaderboard

    1. pilgrimchris
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Agree

    2. luke25
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      I think he'll end the August thing this season, is he looking likely to play though?

      1. My heart goes Salalalalah
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        95% likely IMO. He said that he is fit and wants to play from gw1 I read on here a few times

      2. My heart goes Salalalalah
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        Team news section doesn’t have him playing though

    3. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Will hold on until they move to new stadium and a few more home fix on the horizon.

    4. DRIZ ✅
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      I dont think he will get the start. Even if he does i willl be happy to wait gw1. Just a hefty price.

    5. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Might also not be

    6. DAZZ
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Why? He's still owned by 31% he isnt a differential, its just this forum that have decided hes a bad idea, and everyone follows

      1. Eden Wizard
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        0 minutes is solid logic

      2. Eden Wizard
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        Pre season *

    7. Eden Wizard
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Cameo

      1. My heart goes Salalalalah
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        Yeah probably won’t risk it. Salah(c) and Kun for me it is

    8. LangerznMash
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      I'm absolutely convinced Kane is going to play GW1.
      I've read so many articles and interviews on this.
      Kane 100% wants to start and has declared himself fit.
      Poch has said he is impressed with Kane's attitude and eagerness to play (but didn't confirm or rule out him playing).

      Paul Merson has predicted 0-0 so that means it will be 3-2 to Spurs with Kane hattrick.

      1. LangerznMash
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 16 days ago

        After reading about his new born child I have U-turned on this, i'm not even sure he will travel with the squad to Newcastle now...

  17. luke25
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Bernardo Silva or Mahrez? Currently got Bilva with £1m in the bank and could probably find 0.5m somewhere

    Thanks

  18. _Ninja_
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    A. Pickford / Stek
    B. Patricio / Foster

    Thanks

    1. Jam0sh
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      B

  19. Dutchy
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Rank the 4.5 defenders 1 - 5

    1. BadgersBoys
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Get your finger out you lazy sod.

  20. Shatner's Bassoon
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Mark joining me in benching Mendy for GW1 by the looks of things...

    Arsenal will score.

    1. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      But mendy will pick up an assist

    2. luke25
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Not worth benching Mendy IMO, at £6m you don't just bring him in for CS's

    3. Ragabolly
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      I don't think we picked up Mendy for the cleansheets solely

      1. Shatner's Bassoon
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        Granted - but it's more the fact that several 4.5 options (Holebas / Steve Cook / Adam Smith) have one of their easiest fixtures all season whilst Mendy has one of the hardest.

        I'm not 100% set on benching him just interesting that's how Mark's set up as well!

    4. Naboo
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      I am, because I believe Arsenal will score 2-4 goals in an absolute thriller. Playing AWB over him in fact! Radical

  21. pilgrimchris
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Anyone fancy a cheeky Andreas Perreira tonight, looks likely to start?

    1. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Is he nailed?

      1. pilgrimchris
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        Likely rather than nailed

  22. Hart-ake
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Sessegnon or Richarlison?

    So tough.

    1. goughton
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Probably Richarlison, because Everton's fixtures at the start are a bit easier

    2. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Not its not. Go with the one thats already done well in the prem.

  23. goughton
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Any thoughts on this one:

    Begovic/Fabianski
    Mendy/Robertson/Alexander-Arnold/Tomkins/Wan-Bissaka
    Salah/Sane/Richarlison/Fraser/Jota
    Aguero/Zaha/King

    Going mad on this!

    1. FPL ZB
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      in the RMT thread please x

  24. Millie22
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Sane or b.silva+2 mil itb

  25. Ninjaa
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Front line is currently
    Aguero Arnautovic Mitrovic

    I am thinking about changing Arnautovic to king as he has much better opening fixtures. Then bringing in Arnautovic in a few weeks. Thoughts guys?

    1. BadgersBoys
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      I've done exactly the same..

    2. luke25
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Good shout, with Lucas Perez signing as well it might revert Arnie back to Mid

      1. Naboo
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        lol

    3. BarrowAFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      I've also swapped out Arnie for Zaha. Hope it doesn't come back to haunt me.

  26. VRP
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    A. Salah + Mkhi
    Or
    B. Alexis + Mane

    1. luke25
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      I'm sure most will say A as it has Salah but I reckon B

  27. HAMMERTIME107
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Lerma or Dendoncker as cheap £4.5mil sub?

    Richarlison, Madison or Jota? All have potential to do great and get goals. Swaying on taking a punt on Madison as set pieces?

  28. S.Agueroooooo
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Anyone having an issue joining leagues today?

  29. Mayor of Flair
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    No set pieces at all for Zaha then?

    1. Fire Chief Moe
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Says who? Mili usually takes pens and FK's anyway

  30. dimitros
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Is Maitland-Niles as 4.5 MID a good option since Monreal and Kola are out for a while?

    1. tambourineman
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Monreal has begun training

      1. dimitros
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        Thanks for the update!