Wisdom of The Crowd: Gameweek 37

Each week we will be reviewing the aggregated predictions on Superbru’s Premier League Predictor game, using the collective Wisdom of the Crowd predictions to guide our fantasy football thinking.

Please join the FFS league here and add your own predictions to the data – the more there are, the more accurate the crowd should be (in theory).  And don’t forget there is £50,000 in prize money on offer every week.

THE CONCEPT

We must all make predictions about how each match will go when deciding on our fantasy team selection, predicting where the goals will be scored, which teams are most likely to keep a clean sheet and so on.  If we aggregate the predictions of thousands of football fans playing the Premier League Predictor game on Superbru, any bias should be ironed out, and the collective knowledge will produce more accurate predictions that we can make on our own.

We tested this last season by taking the average community predictions, and entering them into the game as a user called Mr Crowd Wisdom.  That user finished in 20th place out of 481 people in the Fantasy Football Scout league – a highly knowledgeable group – and also beat 98% of other people on the global leaderboard.

We’ll follow the average picks again this season and hopefully it will provide another reference point for your fantasy team selections.

GAMEWEEK 36 REVIEW

I’m not sure what happened to last week’s article, but the crowd had a good week, with five correct picks out of 10, beating the community average of 4.

A big finish could be on the cards as our Crowd Wisdom user pushes up into the higher echelons of the global leaderboard.

GAMEWEEK 37 PREVIEW

Here is the Expected Goals chart for each fixture in GW37:

And here is the ranking of teams in order of Expected Goals Scored and Conceded:

Man United top the predicted goals chart this weekend, thanks to their meeting with Huddersfield, but with Paul Pogba out of form and doubts over Marcus Rashford and Romelu Lukaku, there aren’t any standout captaincy options.

Liverpool and Man City are not too far behind them, with both teams expected to win and take the title race to the final round.  The usual suspects are the armband options, with Sergio Aguero, Raheem Sterling and Mo Salah vying for selection.

In defence, Man United and Arsenal look like the best picks, with Wolves and Everton also worth considering.

Here are the picks we’ll enter for Mr Crowd Wisdom:

Everton 2 – 1 Burnley
Bournemouth 1 – 2 Tottenham
West Ham 2 – 1 Southampton
Wolves 2 – 1 Fulham
Cardiff 1 – 1 Crystal Palace
Newcastle 1 – 2 Liverpool
Chelsea 2 – 1 Watford
Huddersfield 0 – 2 Man United
Arsenal 2 – 0 Brighton
Man City 2 – 1 Leicester

Good luck for this week, and just a heads up that next season we’ll likely publish these articles on Superbru.