Spot the Differential
4 October 2019 911 comments
DavidMunday815 DavidMunday815
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With many of the highly-owned players failing to deliver in recent weeks, differentials are becoming more and more important to Fantasy Premier League managers.

In Gameweek 7, the top 10 points-scorers all had single-digit ownership levels, proving that many of this season’s top performers are still hiding away.

It was another good week for this regular column though. Andriy Yarmolenko (£6.0m) and Chris Wood (£6.2m) lived up to their billing by registering a goal each.

Let’s hope for more of the same this weekend. Here are three exciting players owned by 5% or less ahead of Gameweek 8.

Riyad Mahrez

Mahrez has been in exceptional form recently

Price: £8.6m 

Ownership: 4.9% 

GW8 Opponent: Wolves (H)

A player averaging 6.4 points per game is always hard to ignore in FPL, although Riyad Mahrez (£8.6m) is much more of a hidden gem right now because he plays for Manchester City.

Had it not been for their ‘Pep Roulette’ rotation system, the former Leicester man probably would have been an essential asset weeks ago.

However, a unique opportunity has emerged which makes Mahrez a viable option, at least for now. 

With fitness concerns over Kevin de Bruyne this weekend and the risk of Bernardo Silva missing out (perhaps long-term), Mahrez seems likely to be involved from the start against Wolves.

Despite only starting four league games since August, he has registered two goals and five assists – one every 57 minutes. 

Mahrez has the same amount of FPL points as Sadio Mané despite offering a saving of £3.0m, which shows how appealing his points per million is.

The Algerian’s underlying statistics almost seem too good to be true and some may say that they are skewed. But form is all that matters to me. 

Over the last two Gameweeks, among all midfielders, Mahrez has the most number of touches in the opponents’ half (127) and the most number of touches in the final third (90). 

For good measure, he’s also had 9 attempts on goal during the same period – only John McGinn has had more. That in itself speaks volumes and boosts his credibility.

Man City are due to face a potentially fatigued Wolves team this weekend that lacks the squad depth to effectively manage their Europa League and Premier League commitments. If Mahrez starts, it would be hard to say he won’t be involved in the goals.

Andriy Yarmolenko

Yarmolenko has been in good form recently and earns a recall to the differentials picks

Price: £6.0m

Ownership: 4.0%

GW8 Opponent: Crystal Palace (H)

For this first time this season, I’ve decided to repurpose one of my picks from last week. 

Yarmolenko’s wnership has increased by 2.7% but is thankfully still below the 5% threshold and capable of propelling his owners up the rankings.

The West Ham midfielder has now registered three goals in his last four league games. For all midfielders priced at £6.5m or less he currently has the best points per game average (5.5). 

Also, during the last two Gameweeks, Yarmolenko has registered the joint-fifth most amount of touches in the final third among all midfielders (54). 

This Michu-esque form shows that he’s getting in the right advanced areas and is being rewarded for his efforts.

It is clear that Yarmolenko’s minutes were being managed in August and early September, to ease him back in after his long injury lay off but he’s now beginning to play the entirety of games. 

For this campaign, he is currently averaging a goal for every 125 minutes played, which is very respectable for a budget midfielder. 

Provided he stays fit and can maintain good performance levels he could end up with at least a dozen goals by the end of the season. 

West Ham’s next opponents are Crystal Palace. The Hammers have scored 10 goals in their last five matches against the Eagles and I expect more from them with Yarmolenko at the helm.

Oli McBurnie 

McBurnie will probably enjoy playing against Watford’s poor defence

Price: £5.9m

Ownership: 0.1% 

GW8 Opponent: Watford (A)

If you’re short on cash up top and are willing to take a substantial risk on an uber-differential then look no further than Oliver McBurnie (£5.9m). 

The Sheffield United forward has started four consecutive Premier League games for his team and, since Gameweek 6, among players priced at £6.0m or less, he has the joint-third highest number of shots on goal.

That period has pitted the Blades against Everton and Liverpool, so there’s every reason to believe he can continue to provide threat against Watford.

 Of course, it’s a concern that he’s only scored one Premier League goal during his entire career, which includes an additional 16 appearances for Swansea City. 

But last season he demonstrated his ability to find the net regularly and seems to be gradually adapting to life as a top-flight centre-forward.

In the Premier League, he clearly won’t match his goal tally from last season but I expect him to gradually improve by each Gameweek. 

Vicarage Road on Saturday could serve as an ideal opportunity for him. The Hornets have been completely woeful recently, even after their managerial change. 

McBurnie and Sheffield United could cause them more trouble after having impressed against some of the league’s more established teams since Gameweek 1.

Lessons Learned from Gameweek 7

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  1. Taegugk Warrior
    7 years, 28 days ago

    For gw 8 only.
    A. Cantwell to yarmolenko (-4).
    B. Cantwell to david silva (-4). Already have mahrez
    C. Greenwood to abraham (-4). And bench cantwell

    1. Kizza_10
      7 years, 28 days ago

      C

    2. Jebiga
      7 years, 28 days ago

      c

    3. Rogue Todd
      7 years, 28 days ago

      I wouldn't take a -4 for one week only

    4. RAFA THE GAFFA
      7 years, 28 days ago

      C is more long term and therefore the only one worth the hit

  2. Kizza_10
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Best Barnes and KDB replacements ?

    A. Aubameyang & Yarmolenko

    B. Vardy & Mahrez

    C. Wilson & Son

    1. g40steve
      7 years, 28 days ago

      B & C look tasty

    2. RAFA THE GAFFA
      7 years, 28 days ago

      A or B. Probably A and then you have the best captain this week

    3. A Fat Spanish Waiter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      7 years, 28 days ago

      B looks really good but for Vardy's fixture this week.

  3. Jebiga
    7 years, 28 days ago

    would you play digne or lundstram ?

    1. Rogue Todd
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Digne surely

    2. g40steve
      7 years, 28 days ago

      On form Lundstram

    3. RAFA THE GAFFA
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Digne easy

  4. Karan_G14
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Pope
    TAA - VVD - Otamendi
    Sterling - Son - Mount - Cantwell!
    Barnes - Pukki - Abraham

    (4.0 - KDB! - AWB! - Lundstram)
    1ft & 0.5m

    AWB ➡️ Tomori for free and start him over Cantwell?

    Frees up cash for VVD & Barnes to Soyuncu & Vardy after IB.

    Appreciate your thoughts!

    1. grumpyman
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Cantwell looks like he could play. He's returned in every home match so far - I'm nervous about benching him personally.

      1. Karan_G14
        7 years, 28 days ago

        Could be a 1 pointer also after reading the latest quotes.

    2. RAFA THE GAFFA
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Tricky one. I’d be tempted to save for 2FTs over the IB. You could they take a mini WC for -4

  5. g40steve
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Pope
    Virgil, Otamendi, Trent
    KDB, Sterling, Son, Mount,
    Pukki, Tammy, Wilson

    Button, Lundstram, Cantwell, Montoya,

    .4 bank

    With possibly Two non starters?

    A use bench

    B -4 KDB to Mahrez no value in KDB.

    Bench order correct?

    1. grumpyman
      7 years, 28 days ago

      B as long as you're happy to use a transfer to get him back at some point after the IB.

      1. g40steve
        7 years, 28 days ago

        Just thinking possibly, no KDB, Cantwell & some dubious Son chatter?

  6. RAFA THE GAFFA
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Stuck on what to do. 1FT and 0.1itb. Got my WC but seems a bit late. Bench is terrible so not sure I can just hold. All advice welcome, looking for some gem advice 🙂

    Pope
    TAA • Zinch(risk) • Digne
    Salah • Sterling • KDB* • Mount • Cantwell*
    Pukki • Abraham
    (Heaton, Lunds, Rico, Greenwood)

    1. Karan_G14
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Wildcard over the IB.

      Take a punt this week KDB or Cantwell out.

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        7 years, 28 days ago

        KDB > Mahrez / Son the obvious one? Or Pepe? 😯

        1. g40steve
          7 years, 28 days ago

          Not Pepe.......

          1. RAFA THE GAFFA
            7 years, 28 days ago

            Haha aye!

        2. Karan_G14
          7 years, 28 days ago

          Yup probably Mahrez. Spurs don't look right atm and Pepe also looks lost.

    2. g40steve
      7 years, 28 days ago

      KDB > Son or Mahrez?

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        7 years, 28 days ago

        Probably the obvious / smart move isn’t it

    3. Alonso The Great Midfielder
      7 years, 28 days ago

      zinch to otamendi?

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        7 years, 28 days ago

        Not worth it imo

    4. Fpl Richie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      7 years, 28 days ago

      I'm coming round to a move myself - either do Zinc to Ota, but maybe we should hold hands and both do the Mahrez move.

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        7 years, 28 days ago

        Think I’m going to yeah. I’m still tempted by Son but he might be benched

        1. Fpl Richie
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          7 years, 28 days ago

          Think its worth it in my case? Same team as you bar Ota instead of Zinc

          1. RAFA THE GAFFA
            7 years, 28 days ago

            Just about yeah

  7. Jebiga
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Should i play Cantwell and Lundstram first sub ?

    1. Goat
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Yes if you can

    2. Gudjohnsen
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Yes

  8. JJeyy
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Ship KDB for Mahrez? Will only loose 0.1 post drop

  9. TeddiPonza
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Which option? Bought KdB for 9,9m.

    A. Hold KdB and play Rico and Greenwood
    B. KdB to Mahrez and play Rico or Greenwood
    C. KdB to Son and play Rico or Greenwood
    D. KdB and Greenwood to Yarmolenko and Tammy and bench Rico

    Thanks.

  10. Saïss Doesn't Mat…
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    7 years, 28 days ago

    btmd**

    I have 2ft.... need to use one as i'd like to have 2 heading into the break.
    not much bothering me rn so should I
    a) Lamela to Yarmolenko
    b) kdb to mahrez

    or should i use this opportunity to move mings out??

    pope
    ota taa lund
    salah kdb** mount lamela**
    pukki kun abraham

    heaton cantwell dunk mings

  11. NewcastleToon74
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Time to get rid of TAA next week?

    1. Gudjohnsen
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Why?

    2. grumpyman
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Season keeper.

    3. g40steve
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Yes if you want to miss the points.

    4. Cok3y5murf
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Before he faces the banter club?

    5. Rogue Todd
      7 years, 28 days ago

      If he gets injured or sent off this week, yes.

    6. Alonso The Great Midfielder
      7 years, 28 days ago

      i know cs will be issue but rethink about his potential attacking return

  12. King Kun Ta
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Pope
    Lundstram VVD Ota
    Salah Sterling Mount Ceballos
    Pukki Aguero Tammy

    Button Cantwell Kelly Mings

    1 FT & zero ITB

    I want to free up some cash to upgrade elsewhere (Ceballos or defender). But how?

    A Kun -> Auba
    B Salah -> Mane/Son
    C Other option
    D Save FT

    Ta!

    1. King Kun Ta
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Anybody?

    2. SHOOTER MCGINN
      7 years, 28 days ago

      A makes sense. Don't like B.

      1. King Kun Ta
        7 years, 28 days ago

        This week or after the IB?

        1. SHOOTER MCGINN
          7 years, 28 days ago

          This week if you've got any doubt Agüero won't start

  13. Gudjohnsen
    7 years, 28 days ago

    GTG?

    Pope
    TAA, Lundstram, Otamendi
    Salah (VC), Sterling (C), Mahrez, Son, Cantwell
    Haller, Pukki

    Bench: Button, Greenwood, Rico, Kelly

    1. NewcastleToon74
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Cantwell has a hamstring injury. Don’t know how bad

  14. The Polymath
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    7 years, 28 days ago

    A) McGinn
    B) Yarmolenko

    Which one to buy?

    1. Gudjohnsen
      7 years, 28 days ago

      B

  15. Jebiga
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Please help who to play:

    1. Tomori
    2. Cantwell
    3. Lundstram ?

    1. Aftermath
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Tough indeed. Lundstram edges it for me

  16. Aftermath
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Team gtg?

    Heaton
    TAA Otamendi Lundstram
    KDB Son Mahrez Yarmolenko
    Auba(C) Vardy Tammy

    Button Rico Aurier Hayden

    Saving ft and risking a KDB no show

    1. Gudjohnsen
      7 years, 28 days ago

      GTG, solid 90 points this gw

    2. NewcastleToon74
      7 years, 28 days ago

      KDB won’t be playing, he had an injury till 20th October or 19th

      1. Aftermath
        7 years, 28 days ago

        KDB definitely out?

        1. Indpush
          7 years, 28 days ago

          Yep

  17. internal error
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    7 years, 28 days ago

    How does Bench f*ckery work for you guys in terms of tempting fate? I'm leaving KDB in with Salah at B1

    1. Jaunty Jonty
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Like this

  18. Big Ronnie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    7 years, 28 days ago

    1FT, still have WC. Tempted to take KDB out and get back later as only got a few weeks ago for £9.8m.

    A) Save
    B) KDB > Mahrez/Dilva/Son
    C) Dendoncker > Guendouzi or Saka

    Pope
    TAA, Digne, Ota
    Sterling, Salah, KDB*, Mount
    Wilson, Pukki, Greenwood

    Button, Rico, Soy, Dendoncker

    1. Aftermath
      7 years, 28 days ago

      B sounds good, could pay off well

    2. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      7 years, 28 days ago

      How about KdB > Saka and Greenwood > Vardy?

      1. Big Ronnie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        7 years, 28 days ago

        Hadn't thought of that. Would want KDB back after international break and that would mean getting rid of Salah or Sterling then.

  19. Al-Chemy
    7 years, 28 days ago

    So I've likely got only 10 players this GW, 3.2 ITB but no free transfers.

    Reckon I should do:

    A) Aurier to Tomori
    B) KDB to Sterling
    C) Different transfer?

    Pope (Heaton)
    TAA Ota Lunds Soy (Aurier)
    Cantwell Son Mount (KDB Hayden)
    Pukki Tammy Aguero

    Thanks for any help, always appreciated!

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      7 years, 28 days ago

      I've done A and am considering B too.

      1. Al-Chemy
        7 years, 28 days ago

        We're they on free transfers? As you reckon that's worth a -8?

  20. CFC1990
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Got KDB for 9.5 but surely have to sell with Zinchenko, Cantwell and this as my bench:

    Greenwood, Rico, Soyunchu

    Have a WC which I may use next week..

    1. internal error
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Yeah.

  21. Twisted Saltergater
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Need some advice, please! Which would you do?

    a. Aguero > Aubameyang(c) -4
    or
    b. KdB + Tielemans > Sterling(c) + Saka -8
    or
    c. Aguero(c)

    1. Pinturicchio10
      7 years, 28 days ago

      C all day.

      1. Twisted Saltergater
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        7 years, 28 days ago

        Cheers, is he your captain?

        1. Pinturicchio10
          7 years, 28 days ago

          No I don't have him. Sterling c, Salah v.

  22. I Member
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Pope
    Alexander-Arnold, Otamendi, Lundstram
    Sterling, De Bruyne*, Son, Mount
    Firmino, Abraham, Pukki

    Button; Dendoncker, Rico, Soyuncu.

    1 FT 0.7 ITB

    A) Save and play Dendoncker (mci)
    B) Sell KDB (Pepe/Mahrez/Dilva)

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      7 years, 28 days ago

      B. How much left for KdB's replacement if you throw in Firmino > Aubameyang?

    2. Hits from the Bong
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Dendonker to Saka for short term

  23. Jaunty Jonty
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Pope (Button)
    TAA, Tomori, Diop, Lundstram, Soyuncu
    Cantwell, Mount, Sterling, KDB, Lamela
    Aguero, Pukki, Abraham

    Wildcarded last week.

    KDB --> ? on a one week punt?

    Son or Mahrez?

  24. FDMS All Starz
    7 years, 28 days ago

    What would you do here?

    use or save 1FT? 0.0itb

    Pope
    Otamendi - VVD - Robbo - Lunds
    Salah - Mount - Kdb - Sterling
    Pukki - Tammy

    Subs: Soy - Dendonker - Wickham

    1. internal error
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Save

    2. TheDragon
      7 years, 28 days ago

      With KDB out and Soy first sub you are basically playing with 10 this week.

      I’d be tempted by Dendoncker to Saka as a week punt to play him

  25. Dele
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Yarmelenko or Mount?

    1. TheDragon
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Mount

    2. internal error
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Mount going forward. I wouldnt be surprised if Mount was rested this weekend

  26. Tonyawesome69
    7 years, 28 days ago

    I've seen a few suggestions to bring in Saka and dedoncker out. I haven't seen much of Saka.

    Anyone willing to share some info on him?

    pope
    VVD TAA lundstram digne
    mane sterling(c) kdb mount
    pukki abraham

    heaton rico dedoncker greenwood

    1ft and 1 itb

    1. TheDragon
      7 years, 28 days ago

      He played 1 game against united and had high xG that’s it

      1. Twisted Saltergater
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        7 years, 28 days ago

        MoTM performance vs Frankfurt too.

    2. L S P
      7 years, 28 days ago

      exciting young player, 4.5, likely to start tomorrow but not likely to be a long-term starter. very much a (cheap) punt.

      i'm torn between him and jorginho for Den.

    3. Rogue Todd
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Think Greenwood, and imagine if he was actually good.

    4. Tonyawesome69
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Cheers everyone.

      Short term is fine. I was looking at cantwell but too risky.

  27. TheDragon
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Do I stick as I am or take a -4 to take a * player out?

    Ryan
    TAA, Ota, Lund
    Salah, Sterling, Mount, KDB*, Cantwell*
    Abraham, Pukki
    Button l AWB*, Greenwood, Soyuncu

  28. No Pirlo No Party
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Ryan - Button
    Robertson - VVD - Otamendi - Dunk - Lundstram
    Salah - Sterling - Mount - Cantwell - Dendoncker
    Aubameyang - Pukki - Greenwood

    2FT - 1.4 ITB

    Best move to make here?

    Considering VVD + Greenwood > Tomori / Suyuncu + Abraham

  29. BigAsGiroud_
    7 years, 28 days ago

    With KDB's out and Cantwell's doubt, who on first sub?
    A) Soyuncu
    B) Rico

    1. TheDragon
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Rico

  30. shaz826
    7 years, 28 days ago

    Considering moving de-bruyne to either mahrez or yarmalenko for a 4 point hit, any idea on which option is the better?

    1. Pinturicchio10
      7 years, 28 days ago

      The quality player who plays for a quality team I'd say.

      1. shaz826
        7 years, 28 days ago

        both team have nice fixtures at home, City at home to wolves and West ham at home to Crystal Palace the other problem is pep roulette and whether Mahrez plays but if he does then can be potential big points against a wolves who played on Thursday away to Besiktas

    2. L S P
      7 years, 28 days ago

      save

    3. Blame it on Traore
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      7 years, 28 days ago

      Yarmalenko is playing brilliantly AND is nailed on, so him

      1. shaz826
        7 years, 28 days ago

        yea that's true Yarmalenko is nailed on but thinking that with B. Silvas ban possibly coming up and with Mahrez's form and citys upcoming fixtures, Mahrez could be a big differential?