Metrics
18 July 2020 2444 comments
DavidMunday815 DavidMunday815
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Just under a third of Fantasy Premier League managers inside the top 10k are preparing to use their Free Hit chip on the final day of the season.

With 2.6% of them deploying it for Gameweek 37+, that brings the total usage of that chip at this level to 68.9% with one round left to go.

That means 31.1% are saving the Free Hit for Gameweek 38+, a sizeable number and certainly enough for significant change to take place in the top 10k on the final day of the campaign.

Meanwhile, an additional 2.2% of managers at this level will be lining up with a completely brand new squad on Sunday, considering that’s how many of them are yet to play their second Wildcard.

As well as a large number of top 10k line-ups expected to fluctuate between the final two Gameweeks of the season, there will be a noteworthy number of Triple Captains in play.

2.5% of them used the enhanced armband for Gameweek 37+, bringing the total for the season to 91.7%. Therefore, 830 managers from the top 10k are likely to be heading into the final day of the campaign with their skipper armed with a Triple Captain chip.

What all of those numbers boil down to is that 54.3% of top 10k managers have no exhausted their chip supply for the 2019/20 season.

It means that 45.7% of them will have the ability to deploy one on the final day of the season.

As already mentioned, this is a significant portion of the top 10k managers, which could lead to plenty of rank changes in the upper echelon.

Bringing things back to Gameweek 37+, it is the Manchester United attack that will determine the narrative of this season’s penultimate round of action.

Bruno Fernandes (£9.1m) has amassed the highest level of support ahead of West Ham’s visit to Old Trafford, 35.8% of the top 10k managers handing him the armband.

The Portuguese international has now broken the 100-points mark after just 12 games in a Manchester United shirt, which is probably why the top 10k see him as the more reliable option.

However, those who have backed Anthony Martial (£8.5m) can feel relatively secure going into Gameweek 37+ too. The Frenchman has delivered in every home match since the Premier League restart, averaging 16 points per game in that time. The fact that just over 30% of the top 10k made the same decision to captain him, they are somewhat protected in that respect too.

Fernandes and Martial are the only two players to boast more than 100% effective ownership at this level for Gameweek 37+, on 131.9% and 100.8% respectively.

Despite proving unfortunate to blank in his last two outings, Mohamed Salah (£12.5m) has only convinced 7.6% of the top 10k to back him for the captaincy.

However, those who felt confident enough to do so will probably enjoy how few managers handed Salah the armband. Considering how poor Chelsea’s defence has looked on the eye recently, there does appear to be an opportunity for the Egyptian’s backers to make up real ground if he delivers the big haul he has been promising in recent weeks.

Martial’s increasing popularity in the top 10k can be spotted by his showing in the Free Hit squads at this level.

The Frenchman was chosen by 95.1% of such managers, more than Fernandes (91.3%) and more than any other player in any other position.

The Free Hitters were big fans of Manchester United, with Aaron Wan-Bissaka (£5.5m) and Marcus Rashford (£8.9m) both making it into this matrix of most popular assets chosen on them.

They were clearly put off by Manchester City’s awkward FA Cup schedule though. Despite a favourable trip to Watford, Kevin De Bruyne (£10.7m) is the only Citizen to be given serious consideration by the top 10k Free Hitters this week.

Gabriel Jesus (£9.8m) has suffered a similar fate in the overall ownership at this level.

He was the third-most-popular forward in the top 10k for Gameweek 36+ but has dropped out after the latest deadline.

Replacing him in the template is Raúl Jiménez (£8.1m). The Wolves forward netted against Burnley and faces a Crystal Palace defence that has conceded 15 goals since the Premier League returned.

Outside of that switch, there has not been a tremendous amount of fluctuation in the template between the two most recent Gameweeks, perhaps suggesting that some top 10k managers are holding a free transfer ahead of the final round of the season.

In midfield, Christian Pulisic (£7.4m) has dropped from 50.5% to 32.9% ownership at this level, leapfrogged by Salah, although the Egyptian only rose from 43.12% ownership to 43.2%.

The only other relatively major change is in defence, where Serge Aurier (£5.1m) has replaced Wan-Bissaka in the top-five, the right-back perhaps suffering as managers try to realign how they are tripled-up on Manchester United assets.

Stats taken from LiveFPL.net

2,444 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. PascalCygan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 12 months ago

    Slowly making a start on my FH38.

    Early thoughts?

    Cheap at the back, apart from TAA, at least two City mids, maybe only two United attacking assets... maybe some differential joy to be had with West Ham, Everton, Burnley, Arsenal...

    As you can tell, still very early stages yet and we’ll need GW37 done before we can make certain calls.

    What are other free hitters thinking early on?

    1. Freshy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      TEAM - GW38+ - £0.1m Bank - FREE HIT
      Pope / (Martínez)
      Dinge / Doherty / Pieters / (Bardsley) / (Williams)
      KDB[C] / Sterling / DSilva / Son / Antonio
      Kane / Aubameyang / (Greenwood)

      1. PascalCygan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 12 months ago

        Looking good! As it stands I’m selling Doherty but defence similar to that, and I’m also looking at a City triple up in midfield. Could be a fun game week!

    2. Karhumies
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      Double Burnley def vs Brighton seems good. Arsenal, Everton and West Ham are playing vs sides who might be critically fighting vs relegation with everything on the line, so forwards are an option if Watford/Bournemouth/Villa need the 3 points and have to go on the offensive.

      1. PascalCygan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 12 months ago

        Nice one, yeah, mindful of relegation and those kind of incentivising factors. Lots to consider.

    3. Whiskerz
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      Martinez
      Diop . Robertson . Pieters
      Salah . D. Silva . KDB . Antonio
      Kane . Auba . Jesus

      1. PascalCygan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 12 months ago

        Strong! That forward line looks potent! At the moment I have a bit more invested in midfield but I do like Kane on the final weekend.

        1. Whiskerz
          • 12 Years
          5 years, 12 months ago

          I had to move on it right away. Exact budget. Bit of a problem with a very weak bench, but all of the picks excite me.

          I'd prefer TAA over Robbo, and might adjust Jesus to accommodate.

          1. PascalCygan
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            5 years, 12 months ago

            Good thinking. Weak bench the way to go too, maybe just one really cheap player who plays as a fail safe. But hopefully there will be early team news anyway.

  2. Hazz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 12 months ago

    Claude from AFTV was the problem all along.

    1. syke63
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      Lol

  3. BROOKLYN GOONER
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 12 months ago

    Did that really just happen?

    1. HuttonDressedasLahm
      • 16 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      Yep, but that was odd.
      Arsenal defended well, but wow, awful really. Like watching Italy

      City have no other ideas, and if you block the box, they’re lost

      1. BROOKLYN GOONER
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 12 months ago

        Pep needs to focus on making teams defend against them the way City want to be defended against. 🙂

  4. HuttonDressedasLahm
    • 16 Years
    5 years, 12 months ago

    City need a big striker
    No plan B
    Andy Carroll? 😆

  5. Dybala10
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 12 months ago

    FH help please chaps.

    A) Greenwood & Laporte vs B) Egan & Antonio?

    1. FPL Pillars
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      B

    2. Whiskerz
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      b

  6. Qaiss
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 12 months ago

    David Luiz is so so good in a back 3

  7. FPL Pillars
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 12 months ago

    😮 what a day

  8. osceola31909
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 12 months ago

    Luiz will clearly be essential next season.

    1. HuttonDressedasLahm
      • 16 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      **Tierney

  9. Aztec Kamara
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 12 months ago

    Have to say, I did not see that coming.

  10. Teahupo'o
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 12 months ago

    Which Burnley defenders are set for a possible double rise this week?

    1. HuttonDressedasLahm
      • 16 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      Pieters
      Long
      Pope

      1. Teahupo'o
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 12 months ago

        Thanks

    1. Cojones of Destiny
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      COYG!

    2. syke63
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      Fair play

  11. FOO FIGHTER
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 12 months ago

    Jesus to Auba -4?

    1. FPL Pillars
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      -8 perhaps

  12. Arteta
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 12 months ago

    Beating Liverpool and Man City in the same week?!
    Wooooow, too good to be true.

    1. syke63
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      Best performance today for sure

    2. diesel001
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      Arteta peaked too soon?

  13. Rainer
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 12 months ago

    Was Laporte playing?

    Just wondering as he was one of the main reasons Liverpool won the league.

    1. tucaoneo
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      VVD played like 35+ games while Laporte played half of that. There's a 10-point gap right there.

  14. Niho992
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 12 months ago

    BREAKING: Man City to appeal their FA Cup Semi-Final loss to CAS.

    1. Tempestic
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      not sure even they can pay off enough ppl to get to the finals

  15. Tempestic
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 12 months ago

    City losing to arsenal makes me feel less bad 😆

  16. Fred54
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 12 months ago

    Has the deadline for Watford v Citeh game only passed for me?

    Why is everyone constantly asking who will start against Watford?

    From an FPL point of view, there's nothing you can do, nothing to be gained.

    Once that line up comes out then you can aimlessly sniff for clues for the Norwich game...or better still wait for reliable leaked team news.

    1. POLSKA GOLA
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      It could have an effect on deciding who to bring in on FH for 38+

  17. Woy_is_back
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 12 months ago

    Theres no way now that Ole is resting anyone with Arsenal in the final

    1. StayoutheSpiceZone
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      Martial or rashford will be rested for igahlo and James/mata will come in for Greenwood

      1. POLSKA GOLA
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 12 months ago

        I agree. I think Martial and Greenwood to be rested. Chelsea will rotate as well

    2. Vazza
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      I agree mate - 100%

      1. StayoutheSpiceZone
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 12 months ago

        Yep. Wouldn’t surprise me to see Bailly play too, Fred and Scott mctom may start also

    3. @persecuted_by_mods
      5 years, 12 months ago

      Doesn't change much, top 4 way more important even with arsenal in the final

      1. StayoutheSpiceZone
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 12 months ago

        Agreed

    4. just a man
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      Yep, expected Ole to rest, but no way he will now. Maybe a couple of changes, but otherwise it's there for the taking.

  18. StayoutheSpiceZone
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 12 months ago

    Phil Foden should have started that game. He is so hungry when he comes on -some of the city players strolled that and thought they would win easily. Congrats arsenal

    1. Qaiss
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      Read that in Keane's voice

      1. StayoutheSpiceZone
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 12 months ago

        Ha ha! He would agree I’m sure

  19. FPL Maldini
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 12 months ago

    Can we really see Pep benching the big boys now and risking another shoddy performance vs Watford?

    1. Digital-Real
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      their C team could beat Watford, that's how bad Watford are!

    2. TorresMagic™
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 17 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      The reserves at least win.

  20. TomSaints
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 12 months ago

    Can’t decide if good or bad result as a KDB (c), Mahrez and Foden owner.

    Poor performance and 90 mins for KDB, but need a reaction and tend to have w big win shortly after set back

    1. Tempestic
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      Think all ur players will start. Jesus benched, sterling false 9

      1. TomSaints
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 12 months ago

        I’m just glad it didn’t go to 120 mins!

  21. DAZZ
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 12 months ago

    Would anyone be open to a mix up in FPL were the world class CDM’s such as Kante, Fabinho, Rodri ect aren’t essentially useless on FPL? Some form of point format for CDM’s, no idea how, but it’s a shame that Kante, probably a top 10 midfielder on earth is useless in FPL

    1. TomSaints
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      Classify them as defenders in the game and price 5-7m.

      Similar logic to how Salah is a midfielder but really a striker..,

      1. Rainer
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 12 months ago

        😮

    2. Rainer
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      That'd be cheering for passes and tackles like for Tarkowski earlier, it'd be boring imo.

      I like the idea to open up instead of just having a pool of 30-50 players but not sure it'd work.

    3. JIMMY TUGGINS
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      3 tackles or interceptions maybe? Like save points?

      1. TomSaints
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 12 months ago

        Award assist the assister with a point?

        3 tackles makes sense but would break pricing as defenders would all get a points boost

        1. TomSaints
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 12 months ago

          Having said that VVD averages only 0.90 tackles per 90 mins..

    4. Davido989
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      Rodri world class?

      1. Rainer
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 12 months ago

        Kante, Fabinho, Kane he meant.

      2. Hy liverpool
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 12 months ago

        this

    5. Revival
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      Maybe give CDM's 2 points for a clean sheet, all other midfielders get 1 point as normal

      1. JONALDINHO
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 12 months ago

        This

    6. Bielsa's Blue Bucket
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      Nah. No need to break an already broken piece of shyt game any more than it already is

    7. Warby84
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      Champions league fantasy works on balls recovered 1pt x3

  22. Niho992
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 12 months ago

    Mahrez off was bad decision by Guardiola. He was far better than Sterling today who missed sitters and slow every attack.

    1. Syd.
      • 17 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      Have you got a postage stamp?

    2. g40steve
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      Mahrez was a ghost today apart from one shot, not good enough.

  23. FOO FIGHTER
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 12 months ago

    Lol, realised I had an FT.

    Jesus to Auba FOR FREE?

  24. syke63
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 12 months ago

    Starting to like David Luiz, shoot me

    1. Davido989
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      Looks like that's happened already fella lol

  25. TheDragon
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 12 months ago

    Free hit thoughts:

    Goalkeeper: Pope
    Defence from: Burnley, Digne, TAA, Robbo
    Midfield from: KDB, Sterling, DSilva, Fernandes, Martial, Antonio, Son
    Strikers from: Kane, Auba, Jesus, Rashford

    How much concentration of risk should we take in defence? Triple Burnley is very very cheap

    1. Tempestic
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      Salah vs Newcastle?

      1. TheDragon
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 12 months ago

        Ye agreed - missed him off the midfield list

      2. TheDragon
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 12 months ago

        I guess the point is - it’s very hard to get a front 7 out of that without a very cheap defence

      3. Greek Freak
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 12 months ago

        Mane plays Newcastle too 😉

    2. POLSKA GOLA
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      I personally like the look of TAA, Robbo and Digne with Pope in goal.
      Midfield and strikers all depend on FA cup and gw37+. MUN and CHE assets have two games to play between now and 38+

    3. diesel001
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      Why no interest in Ings? Guy could score a few tomorrow and still be the golden boot race.

      1. TheDragon
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 12 months ago

        Ye Ings is another option

  26. Nightcrawler
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 12 months ago

    Arsenal meed to get ceballos on loan again if not sign him permanently

    Such a classy player. Could be the cazorla replacement

    1. Klaren
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      They don't have a buyout clause on his contract as far as I know so it would depend on whether Real Madrid wants him back or not.

  27. Gudjohnsen
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 12 months ago

    Lose Jesus or Vardy for Auba?

  28. Piggs Boson
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 12 months ago

    I'm pleased for Sideshow Bob. Redemption arcs are always satisfying.

  29. have you seen cyan
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 12 months ago

    I think Foden, Mahrez and Dilva start. One of Jesus and Sterling will be benched

    1. have you seen cyan
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      KDB also start

    2. Niho992
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      It s time for Jesus to be benched.

      And i dont think Dilva wont start.

      1. Niho992
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 12 months ago

        And i think*

    3. Klaren
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      Is this for Watford or Norwich? I think it's pretty certain Dilva doesn't start vs Watford as he'd definitely start vs Norwich, his last PL game.

    4. Young Lingard
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      Bernardo Silva will start and should
      I don’t know why he’s gone out of favour this calendar year
      I don’t own him obviously but he was the heartbeat in the kdb-less city team last year
      I think Dilva, Mahrez sit unfortunately

    5. redsallstars
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 12 months ago

      Jesus is due a rest, DSilva will play last home game so he will prob sit out this one. KDB BSilva Rodri midfield 3, Sterling foden mahrez front 3

      1. Big_Andy_GAWA
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 12 months ago

        How many minutes did they all play, lads? Who played the 90? Cheers.