Pro Pundits - Mark
16 October 2020 3031 comments
Mark Mark
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Mark Sutherns explains why he’s sticking to his guns amid the Liverpool defensive firesale.


I remain defiant when it comes to Liverpool’s full-backs. An avalanche of goals is flushing funds from Fantasy Premier League defences and Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m) and Andy Robertson (£7.0m) are rapidly being classified as disposable. But I’m not having it.

I’m not denying the logic. Liverpool have kept just four clean sheets in 13 matches since the restart and the injury to Alisson (£6.0m), a crucial component in Jurgen Klopp’s defensive jigsaw, nudges a hapless Adrian (£4.5m) into the firing line.

That worrying scenario provides a sub-plot to a season that, so far, has seen 144 goals scored, a rate of 3.79 goals per game. That’s a ridiculous figure: the record for a Premier League season was set in 1992/93 when we witnessed a rate of 2.65 goals per game.

So FPL managers are reassessing their team structure and flooding to the major benefactors of the goal rush, notably Spurs’ Harry Kane (£10.6m) and Son Heung-min (£9.1m).

Expensive defenders are being sacrificed and, should Alexander-Arnold and Robertson fail to return in Saturday’s Merseyside derby, the evacuation will only gather pace.

But the recent explosion from the Spurs pair isn’t enough to convince me to give up on my two defensive investments. I may well move funds from Lucas Digne (£6.1m) and Reece James (£5.1m) and replace them with £4.5m options, but I’m remaining steadfast on the Liverpool full-backs.

At this stage, FPL managers normally start to seek out trends and patterns vital to drive our decisions – our transfers, our early-season Wildcards.

But we’ve never experienced a start to the season like this. We’re in the midst of something extreme that, to my mind, makes it impossible to find the comforting foothold of reliable data and form.

So with just this small and extraordinary sample of matches as my reference, I’m refusing to write off a player who, prior to Gameweek 1, was the first name on almost every FPL teamsheet.

At the time of writing, over almost 240,000 managers have sold Alexander-Arnold heading into Saturday’s deadline.

Admittedly, his performances have contributed to that trend. He has been short of his best by some margin and has been strangely peripheral to Liverpool’s play. However, Alexander-Arnold’s numbers remain impressive: only West Ham’s Ryan Fredericks (£4.4m) and Aaron Cresswell (£4.9m) have created more chances among players in his Fantasy position, and with seven efforts on goal, no defender has bettered his direct threat. If you are brave enough to use data given the bizarre four Gameweeks we’ve had, there’s little in the numbers to drive you to sell.

Alexander-Arnold is a player that has provided 28 assists and five goals in his previous two campaigns, with his points tally improving from 185 points to 210. Since the start of the 2019/20 campaign, only Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m) and Jack Grealish (£7.1m) have created more chances and on Boxing Day last year, the right-back coupled that creativity with an eye for goal to haul of 24-points, a record for a defender in the history of FPL.

Is this really an asset we can reject on the basis of four bizarre Gameweeks?

On Liverpool’s opposite flank, Robertson appears to be reaching new levels as an attacking outlet. He’s overshadowed Alexander-Arnold since the restart, creating more chances (22 vs 20) and more big chances (six versus three), while he’s surely passed the eye test.

The Scot is pouring forward on the left flank, overlapping Mane time and time again. He already has a first goal to his name and there should be more to come.

Fabinho bolsters Liverpool defence as Werner shows promise ahead of West Brom

Liverpool will be backed to be second only to Manchester City for goals scored again this season and, collectively, their full-backs have provided 34% of the assists since the start of the 2018/19 season.

So while the chances of clean sheets in the short-term may be diminished by Adrian’s tenure, Klopp’s side will have to score more goals to win matches and that will surely benefit their primary source of creativity.

And I’m not giving up on defensive returns, either.

We have to expect Klopp to react to the Villa Park mauling. He will surely focus on shutting down the gaps that were exploited in that defeat. The return of Jordan Henderson (£5.4m) and Sadio Mane (£11.9m) – both vital to Liverpool’s pressing game that denies opponents the time to exploit a high line – must also be factored in.

That aforementioned record of four clean sheets from 13 outings includes eight matches when the title was almost in the bag. But Liverpool cannot show any complacency now. Pep Guardiola will demand that his City side match Liverpool’s own relentless consistency, so Klopp will know that he has to quickly find a solution to their defensive frailties.

The fixture list convinces me that I can give him time.

Liverpool face just a Gameweek 8 trip to the Etihad and a home clash with Spurs in Gameweek 13 as major tests before the deadline for the first Wildcard.

So for this FPL manager, Alexander-Arnold and Robertson remain at the status they held before the madness ensued: unique assets who can present outstanding value.

They are investments worthy of that extra five million, particularly when I can compensate for that spend by investigating mid-price assets in attacking areas. We’ve already seen that Grealish, James Rodriguez (£7.6m), Dominic Calvert Lewin (£7.6m) and Michail Antonio (£6.3m) are options that offer the potential of returns that keep pace or even better the top tier players.

It’s going to take a Jose Mourinho team to go on scoring five and six goals a game to convince me otherwise. At that point, the madness shifts to a whole new level.


Mark Mark created the beast. He's now looking to tame it.

3,031 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. AC Pilkington
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Who should I start?

    a) Soucek

    b) Brewster

    1. Tonyawesome69
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Soucek - looks good and close to scoring. Not sure how Brewster will play since he hasn't played a game yet in the EPL

    2. DycheDycheBaby
      6 years, 1 day ago

      A

    3. Gianluca Busio's Hair …
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      6 years, 1 day ago

      a

    4. Dexters Laboratory
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Brewster, Spurs are a lot better defensively than Fulham

  2. Tonyawesome69
    6 years, 1 day ago

    KDB to Grealish -4 or play Bissouma?

    0.8itb 0ft
    McCarthy
    Robbo TAA Taylor Ayling
    KDB* Salah Son Podence
    DCL Jimenez
    (Peacock Bissouma Justin Vassilev)

    1. Tonyawesome69
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Anyone?

    2. Hart-ake
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Take the hit as KDB likely to be out for a little while. Grealish great long-term option.

    3. DycheDycheBaby
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Go for Grealish.

  3. Boss Hogg
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Best 4.0 keeper to get with Martinez?

    1. Tonyawesome69
      6 years, 1 day ago

      The villa backup Steer

      1. Runaway
        6 years, 1 day ago

        Villa assets can be great enablers if they continue like this so you may not want to use 2 Villa spots on the goal.

        1. Tonyawesome69
          6 years, 1 day ago

          Very good point. Forgot about that especially when I would pick Martinez, Grealish and Watkins

    2. Runaway
      6 years, 1 day ago

      I am going with Forster, I believe he is the likeliest 4.0 to take down the main guy without an injury.

  4. Aubamewho
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Repost,
    Thoughts pls, current WC draft:

    Mccarthy | Martin
    Chilwell | Justin | KWP | Mitchell | kilman
    Salah | KDB | Zaha | Son | JRod
    Maupay | Kane | Brewster

    A) KDB > Grealish, Justin > Lampty
    B) KDB > Grealish, Justin > Reguilon
    C) KDB > Sterling or Mahrez

    1. Tonyawesome69
      6 years, 1 day ago

      A Samedo

  5. DycheDycheBaby
    6 years, 1 day ago

    For -4, KDB to:
    a) Zaha
    b) Grealish

    1. Tonyawesome69
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Grealish

    2. Gianluca Busio's Hair …
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      6 years, 1 day ago

      def b.

  6. ZTF
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Rival this week in draft has a utd defender as his last, so which defence would you start?

    A) Utd
    B) Wolves
    C) Brighton

  7. Rhodes your boat
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Kdb to? (-4)

    A) sterling
    B) mane

    1. yanky
      6 years, 1 day ago

      sterling if you have salah, im in a similar spot below

    2. Tonyawesome69
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Mane

    3. Old Wulfrunian
      6 years, 1 day ago

      b

  8. yanky
    6 years, 1 day ago

    a) KDB > Grealish -4pt
    b) KDB > Pulisic -4pt (have werner already)
    c) KDB > Sterling -4pt
    d) Keep KDB and play Lamptey or Justin

    1. linkafu
      6 years, 1 day ago

      2

    2. sozopol
      6 years, 1 day ago

      very similar dilemma to mine, except for me it would be KDB > Salah (-4). With yours, I'd do either b) or d)

  9. Old Wulfrunian
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Would you start Coleman or Targett?

    1. Tonyawesome69
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Targett

      1. Old Wulfrunian
        6 years, 1 day ago

        cheers

  10. umerlfc
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Son or Salah for the armband?

    1. Tonyawesome69
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Salah

    2. Clintymints
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Salah cap son VC

    3. linkafu
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Salah

    4. DycheDycheBaby
      6 years, 1 day ago

      The last 3 PL meetings were 0-0 at Goodison. Son for me.

  11. Chucky
    6 years, 1 day ago

    KDB to son or sterling for -4? Already used FT..

    1. Tonyawesome69
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Son

    2. Clintymints
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Son.

    3. sozopol
      6 years, 1 day ago

      yep, Son

    4. FFSbet.com
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Son

    5. Eastman
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Think I'm benching him

    6. Chucky
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Thanks all

    7. DycheDycheBaby
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Son by a mile.

  12. Az
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Mark and I are streaming live to discuss my last minute panic wildcard if anyone is interested
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WuvH5L5A2Ng

    1. Clintymints
      6 years, 1 day ago

      I'll give it a whirl

    2. Firminooooo
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Will have a look. Already burned my WC. On -12, if KdB have to go. OR 3.2m. What a season.

    3. Qaiss
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Blackbox 2 days ago.

      "Wildcards being played to bring in Spurs players, lets just all chill out a little bit" hmmm

      ill give it a watch 🙂

  13. Clintymints
    6 years, 1 day ago

    This article pops up hours before TAA is set to possibly drop

    Mucho suspiciouso

    1. AlternativeB
      6 years, 1 day ago

      TAA not playing? Have him in on my WC..

      1. Seanigula
        6 years, 1 day ago

        drop in value

      2. Clintymints
        6 years, 1 day ago

        He's playing surely

  14. ZTF
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Did Wilder ever actually say that Brewster can only play for 60 mins?

    1. Clintymints
      6 years, 1 day ago

      He'll either get 60 or 30/15

      1. ZTF
        6 years, 1 day ago

        According to who though? I know he said he’s not 100% but he could still get 75 or so

        1. Clintymints
          6 years, 1 day ago

          Wilder comments sound promising for him. Seems like minutes will be either way

  15. sozopol
    6 years, 1 day ago

    KDB --> Salah worth a -4?

    1. GE
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Guess so

      1. sozopol
        6 years, 1 day ago

        not exactly brimming with confidence haha

        I hate hits so otherwise I'll probably use a sub-- Bissouma, Justin, or Mitchell

    2. Tonyawesome69
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Yes

    3. Gianluca Busio's Hair …
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      6 years, 1 day ago

      yep

  16. GE
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Dillemmas in 3-4-3 at WC:

    1) Chilwell and Castagne with no defence cover (Mitchell and Douglas)
    2) Chilwell and Saiss (Dallas/Lamptey and Mitchell on bench)
    3) Castagne and Saiss (Dallas/Lamptey and Mitchell on bench)

    1. AlternativeB
      6 years, 1 day ago

      I'm on nr 3. atm

      1. GE
        6 years, 1 day ago

        With who on the bench?

        1. AlternativeB
          6 years, 1 day ago

          Lamptey Mitchell (+TAA)

        2. AlternativeB
          6 years, 1 day ago

          Had Chilwell a while (on WC now), but Castagne has looked good in every game. Chilwell not sure of yet

          1. GE
            6 years, 1 day ago

            Very hard to drop one so maybe take the risk of no Bench cover? 😉 I’m on WC also

    2. Super John McGinn-
      6 years, 1 day ago

      2

  17. linkafu
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Pulisic or Rashford? Have Werner and greenwood

  18. Squires FC
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Where is the captain sensible article?

  19. Super John McGinn-
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Semedo or Regulion?

    1. RAFA THE GAFFA
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Reg

    2. Tonyawesome69
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Samedo

  20. RAFA THE GAFFA
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Team news on this site predicting no Pulisic?

  21. Boss Hogg
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Best 4.5m defs on a wildcard?

    1. Dexters Laboratory
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Brewster, Spurs are a lot better defensively than Fulham

      1. Dexters Laboratory
        6 years, 1 day ago

        Ignore XD Lamptey,Dallas,KWP,Ayling

  22. FPL_Devil
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Dallas or KWP to rotate with Lamptey? Cheers!

    1. Gomolon
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Think Leeds rotate better right?

  23. Gianluca Busio's Hair …
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    6 years, 1 day ago

    start Davies or Taylor?

    1. Tonyawesome69
      6 years, 1 day ago

      Taylor

      1. Gianluca Busio's Hair …
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        6 years, 1 day ago

        cheers

  24. Sewell36
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Will Sterling start tomorrow?

    1. Bobby_Baggio
      6 years, 1 day ago

      should do yea

  25. Bobby_Baggio
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Evening all - last check on which to go with please?

    McCarthy
    Davies - TAA - Justin
    KDB - Hamez - Salah - Podence
    Ings - Mitro - Jimenez

    (Martin) - Lewis - Johnson - Stephens

    A) KDB > Son
    B) KDB > Sterling
    C) KDB + Mitro > Sterling + DCL (-4)
    D) Davies + KDB > Saiss + Sterling (-4)
    D) Davies + KDB > Saiss + Son (-4)

    1. Gomolon
      6 years, 1 day ago

      A

  26. Niho992
    6 years, 1 day ago

    First hit of the season done. Feeling ashamed. Lol.

  27. DycheDycheBaby
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Davies will not start, right?

    1. DycheDycheBaby
      6 years, 1 day ago

      (Ben Davies)

      1. Niho992
        6 years, 1 day ago

        doubt it

  28. Pedram
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Start Brewster or Podence?

  29. FPL Doctor
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Should I take a -4 hit for Podence or Mitro out?

    4.7 ITB

    Ryan
    Saiss Justin Digne
    Salah Son Grealish Podence
    Werner Mitro Jimi

    McCarthy Bissouma KWP Ferg

    1. Tonyawesome69
      6 years, 1 day ago

      No

  30. boroie
    6 years, 1 day ago

    Have already taken a -4... is this worth a WC?

    McCarthy
    TAA Chilwell Justin
    Salah Son Prodence KDB*
    Kane Wilson Brewster

    Nyland*; Shaw KWP Bissouma

    1. Tonyawesome69
      6 years, 1 day ago

      No play Bissouma

      1. boroie
        6 years, 1 day ago

        Bit worried that all of Nyland, KDB, Brewster, Prodence, Chilwell may not start...